Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
Though the 2022 Grammy Awards probably feel like something that will take place in some alternate future timeline, today marks the halfway point between the end of the Grammy eligibility period ended, and the start of the first round of voting. Just like the last couple years, the final list of nominees will be announced Thanksgiving week, at which time voting begins for the final ceremony in January 2022.
Last year's mid-COVID Grammys were unlike any other-- and the end result was a surprisingly glorious ceremony. However, barring a new wave of concerns regarding Delta or any other variants, we likely will see a return to the Grammys we all knew and loved (?) before, filled with artists, fans, and seat-fillers alike in a venue such as Staples Center. That said, considering the eligibility period for this Grammys goes all the way back to late 2020, there's no question the pandemic and other tumultuous events of last year will still weigh heavily on the nominees and be talking points throughout the ceremony. And as such, we musicheads once again await with eager anticipation to see what from September 2020-August 2021 will be nominated for what is billed as “Music’s biggest night.” As always, my highest level of interest is in the Album of the Year award, widely considered to be the Grammy equivalent of the Best Picture. Let's take a look at some works that I expect to be in the running:
Surefire Candidates
Happier Than Ever // Billie Eilish
If there's one thing we've learned from the last two Grammys, it's that they love themselves some Billie Eilish. Billie entered the 2020 Grammys as a favorite for Album of the Year and Best New Artist, but surprisingly made off with a clean sweep of the major General Awards, plus a trophy for Best Pop Album. Last year, having only released two songs, she entered the night as a favorite for nothing, and yet made off with two more Grammys, including an upset win for Record of the Year. Billie's sequel to her Album of the Year winner, released this summer, may not have had a tour de force of a lead single like "bad guy," but was not only every bit as big as When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?, but even better-reviewed. Unless there's a sudden onset of 'Billie Fatigue,' I can't imagine she's not among the nominees.
SOUR // Olivia Rodrigo
The only other lock besides Billie Eilish is an artist who will be trying to emulate her path of "breakout teen star" to "Grammy queen" within the same year. Olivia Rodrigo, the 18-year old former Disney actress, has easily been the breakout star of 2021. First came the mega smash single "drivers license," then the change-of-pace "deja vú," and then one of THE songs of the summer in "good 4 U." Shortly after the release of the latter, her album SOUR dropped in early Summer, and instantly shot to the top of the charts. As evidenced by her recent VMA wins for Best New Artist and Song of the Year, she isn't just a lock for an Album of the Year nom; she's arguably the frontrunner.
Contenders
Back Of My Mind // H.E.R.
Second only to the Grammys' recent fascination with Billie Eilish is their bizarre fascination with H.E.R. When I say bizarre, that's not a commentary on talent, which H.E.R. has spades. Rather, for a relatively unknown R&B artist to get back-to-back Album of the Year nominations for EPs, then earn Song of the Year for a little-known protest track is very counter to the Grammys' populist default. All being said, if her two EPs both earned nominations, and her little-known song last year earned a major trophy, surely H.E.R.'s debut full-length album, which was well-received by critics and fans alike is a contender, yes?
Call Me If You Get Lost // Tyler, the Creator
Tyler, the Creator's eclectic, experimental Call Me If You Get Lost is the rapper's best-received release to date, currently holding an 89 on Metacritic. Yes, an even better score than its predecessor IGOR, which won Best Rap Album at the 2020 Grammys. Hip-hop fans were furious that year that his album wasn't given an Album of the Year nod as well, and given the critical acclaim for this one, I'd say they might belatedly get their wish.
Certified Lover Boy // Drake
Drake's latest album was a very recent release, and not only does the timing make him eligible for this Grammys, it was seen by many as intentionally done to counter the hype of rival Kanye West's new release. Certified Lover Boy was seen by critics as his weakest release to date, and doesn't include any of the certifiable bangers (yet) that previous releases did. However, he's one of the biggest stars on Earth, and accordingly, it was a massive commercial success. Besides, his previous two albums were nominees for Album of the Year. Don't ever count him out.
Daddy's Home // St. Vincent
Daddy's Home was a complete tonal shift from St. Vincent, who opted for a conceptual, retro-pop album rather than her usual trippy rock. The change in direction was beloved by critics, though, with more than one calling it their album of the year thus far. Based both on name recognition and style, she might be a surprising nominee. But St. Vincent is revered in the music industry, and is no stranger to the Grammys, having her last two albums nominated for Best Alternative Music Album, and winning in 2019 for Best Rock Song with "Masseduction."
Donda // Kanye West
True, Kanye West's name doesn't pull as much clout as it did in say, the late 2000s. When it comes to rap at the Grammys, these days if it's not Drake or Kendrick Lamar, it's an uphill battle to get recognition outside the Rap awards. But lest you think the Grammys have totally moved on from Kanye, 2018 was the only year in the last decade in which he didn't get at least two Grammy nods, and his last release, Jesus Is King, won Best Contemporary Christian Album . Even with a fairly "meh" reaction from critics, the pleasant and vulnerable Donda is a contender for top honors.
evermore // Taylor Swift
It's not often that the reigning Album of the Year winner has the chance to defend her crown, but Taylor Swift has a real shot at it with evermore, the spiritual companion to last year's winner folklore. Released in December 2020, it didn't quite reach the critical or commercial heights of its predecessor, and that plus the fact that Swift's lack of nominations for Reputation and Lover indicated that she's no longer a shoo-in nominees prevent me from classifying evermore as a lock. That said, it still made appearances on many critics' year-end lists, and it continues musically and lyrically from the folklore themes that obviously won over the Academy last year. Don't be surprised at all to see Taylor in the thick of it yet again.
Good News // Megan Thee Stallion
Megan Thee Stallion will be a serious contender for Best Rap Album for her debut studio album, Good News, but might have her sights set on something higher. The lack of hip-hop recognition at the Grammys is well-documented, so I unfortunately can't argue that this would be a surefire Album of the Year nominee as well, no matter how popular the artist may be. However, the fact that Meg is the reigning Best New Artist might be a good sign of tides changing somewhat, and an album that was universally acclaimed and also includes defending Best Rap Song winner "Savage" will definitely be in play.
Justice // Justin Bieber
There's no questioning Justin Bieber's talent at this point; he's one of the most familiar faces in the World for a reason. There *may* be some fair questioning of his artistic choices. Justice is a strange, boom or bust collection of songs and random, unrelated MLK interludes, which plays something like 'The Weeknd but make it Christian!' That may not seem like a ringing endorsement of its Grammy potential, but its high points are really quite good, and plus, not only was his last album nominated for Best Pop Album despite getting mediocre reviews, the one before that earned Justin an Album of the Year nom alongside such titans as Adele, Beyoncé and Drake. You can't write off his star power.
MONTERO // Li'l Nas X
Two years ago, Li'l Nas X seemed to be a shoo-in for "Record of the Year," only to be caught up in the Billie Eilish whirlwind. His record-breaking "Old Town Road" did win Best Music Video, but that was it, and many skeptics assumed that would be Nas' last chance at a major Grammy, writing him off as a one-trick pony. This year, he's proved haters wrong in a major way; lead single "Montero (Call Me By Your Name)," with its unabashedly queer themes and music video, took the nation by storm much in the way "Old Town Road," albeit for a much different reason. Summer release "Industry Baby" also reached #1 on the charts, and it was clear that Li'l Nas X's forthcoming debut album had star potential. Sure enough, MONTERO reached #2 on the charts upon release, and also became the most pre-added album on Apple Music. Perhaps more importantly for the Grammys, it's really good, currently sitting at an 86 on Metacritic. Li'l Nas X is a lightning rod for blowback, and an artist that can't easily be fit in a box, and unfortunately that may make him a Grammy liability. However, I think it's far more likely that the Album of the Year/Record of the Year/Best New Artist nominee from 2020 replicates his nomination spree.
Planet Her // Doja Cat
It's fitting that Doja Cat immediately follows Li'l Nas X, because they're of the same ilk (and in fact, Doja features on the single "Scoop," off MONTERO). Doja Cat also found success by and large through viral tunes on the Internet, or more specifically, the app TikTok, and also has really carved out a spot in the industry by...well, not really carving up a spot. She's a rapper, she's a pop singer, she's an R&B singer, she's a clapback queen, etc. Planet Her spans various genres, and largely for that reason it met pretty mixed reviews from critics, but was quite commercially successful. Doja was a nominee for Best New Artist, Record of the Year and Song of the Year last year, so even though she didn't win any, the Grammys clearly have taken notice of her. With multiple candidates for Record of the Year this year in "Kiss Me More," "Need To Know," and "Get Into It," Planet Her has a real chance of crashing the Album of the Year party.
Positions // Ariana Grande
Somewhat lost in the excitement of ALL the pop queens releasing music in the last year was the fact that Ariana Grande also dropped a new album. With Positions, the 2020 nominee for Album of the Year (and 2019 winner for Best Pop Album) didn't reach nearly the same critical or commercial heights as sweetener or thank u, next reached. But nothing has changed in her ability to sing the lights out or write catchy tunes, as evidenced by the success of the album's title track.
Solar Power // Lorde
Lorde, too; most years, a Lorde album would be all anyone talked about for most of the year, but in a year that also saw albums from Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Olivia Rodrigo, Lana del Rey and Ariana Grande, it got a little lost in the midst. To be fair, a lot of the lack of buzz can also be attributed to Solar Power being met with pretty mixed reviews. It was nowhere near as universally beloved as 2017's Melodrama was, and without a smash single like "Royals" or "Green Light," hasn't seen the same level of radio play, either. That naturally leads me to believe Lorde's facing an uphill battle for an Album of the Year nomination, but the young artist still has enough credibility and esteem from the Academy that you have to imagine she'd be someone they'd like to have as part of their show.
star-crossed // Kacey Musgraves
We already talked about the last two Album of the Year winners; why not make it the last three? You'd be forgiven if you forgot that Kacey Musgraves' last album, Golden Hour won Album of the Year in 2019. In a decade that saw multiple wins by Adele and Taylor Swift, as well as breakthrough victories by Billie Eilish and Bruno Mars, Musgraves doesn't really fit the mold of a major Grammy winner. Nor does the alternative-country artist really fit the mold of 'Album of the Year double nominee,' but with star-crossed, the heartbreaking sequel to Golden Hour, she's got a decent chance at that billing.
Starting Over // Chris Stapleton
And speaking of respected Country artists: Chris Stapleton! Country is a whole lot like Rap at the Grammys, in that it's vastly under-represented relative to its popularity, and its Major award hopes pretty much rest on two individuals, Kacey Musgraves and Chris Stapleton. Unlike Kacey, Stapleton has never scaled that mountain, but his 2015 album Traveller was nominated for Album of the Year, and won Best Country Album, as did his next two albums. Could Starting Over, his best-reviewed release since Traveller, mark his return to the main stage?
Longshots
Chemtrails Over The Country Club // Lana del Rey
Lana del Rey has been the queen of indie pop for the better part of a decade now, cultivating a devoted fanbase and respect from critics along the way. However, that’s rarely translated to Grammy success. She finally broke through in 2020 with an Album of the Year nod for Norman Fucking Rockwell! and Song of the Year nod for its title track. Even then, it struck out in all categories, despite being the critical consensus best album of 2019, so I’m having a harder time seeing the less-popular Chemtrails Over The Country Club crashing the party this year.
Dangerous // Morgan Wallen
Country music's breakout star had a big year, with his second studio album racing to the top of not only Country charts, but the Billboard Top 200. He also has done well for himself on the awards circuit, earning wins at the Billboard Music Awards for Best Country Artist and Best Country Album, and at the CMA Awards for Best New Artist and Album of the Year. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Wallen earn a Best New Artist nod, and considering how much the Grammys like to double up. However, the artist also found himself in multiple controversies, first for recklessness in the height of the pandemic, later for video of him shouting a racial slur. He apologized for and owned up to both, but he may be seen as too toxic to touch. Besides that, Country at the Grammys tends to be dominated by known quantities, so he probably would run into the Country lane being occupied by Kacey Musgraves and/or Chris Stapleton.
F*ck Love 3+: Over You // the Kid LAROI
I've seen little to no discussion of the Kid LAROI among Grammy prognosticators, and given that he's far from a household name, I agree he's probably a longshot. However, as someone who is always trying to be hip, I happen to know that the 18-year old Australian emo rapper has more than one viral song on the Instagrams and the TikToks, and this third iteration of his 2020 mixtape has said viral songs on their tracklist. The Grammys have definitely done their best to nod to the youth trends in recent years, as Li'l Nas X and Billie Eilish's nominations portray. They're also not at all opposed to throwing EPs or non-studio albums in among the Album of the Year contenders, as recent AOTY nods from Chance the Rapper, Li'l Nas X and H.E.R. show. I see a lane here for a Kid LAROI surprise.
Heaux Tales // Jazmine Sullivan
Jazmine Sullivan is not the biggest name, but has long been a beloved figure in the R&B world. Her album Heaux Tales was well-received, and quietly topped the Billboard R&B charts upon release. It's rare to see someone with only one real mainstream hit ("Pick Up Your Feelings") make a splash in the General fields. That said, there has been no shortage of R&B representation in recent Album of the Year fields, and more than that, those nominees have often been surprises: H.E.R.'s back-to-back nominations and Jhene Aiko and especially Jacob Collier being in contention last year came completely out of nowhere.
If I Can't Have Love, I Want Power // Halsey
Popular alternative pop artist Halsey has a large and devoted following, and has found success in both indie and mainstream circles. If I Can't Have Love, I Want Power was produced in tandem with Oscar-winning duo Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor, and was released alongside a film of the same name, both of which were met with universal acclaim. So why isn't she a shoo-in? For whatever reason, she has yet to get any sort of Grammy recognition, which led to a not-so-subtle shot at them during the American Music Awards, something that probably doesn't particularly help her case this time around. And if her last album Manic, which featured smash singles "Without Me" and "You Should Be Sad" couldn't get any nods, I'd be surprised if this one does.
Inside (The Songs) // Bo Burnham
Comedy musician Bo Burnham's Inside was unlike any 'comedy special' you or I have seen before, and it would be a Grammy nominee unlike any other, too. Inside was brilliant and was revered by critics and normies alike, but it's far more likely that the comedy special, filmed entirely within a studio apartment, gets isolated to the Best Comedy Album bucket; off the top of my head, I think the last time a comedy album was nominated for Album of the Year was in the 60s. That said, it was an absolute zeitgeist, which could inspire the Academy to include it for the Gen Z and millennial viewership, and the release of Inside's songs as a stand-alone tracklist do give them a chance to recognize Burnham's musicianship as much as his comedy.
Love For Sale // Lady Gaga and Tony Bennett
Old crooner Tony Bennett and pop diva Lady Gaga may seem like an odd pairing, but Love For Sale, released on the last day of the Grammy eligibility window, is actually their second album together after 2014's Cheek To Cheek. Their voices work together quite well, and not only does the Recording Academy occasionally show an affinity for the old classics, these two artists have quite a pedigree between the two of them. That said, given the under-the-radar release and the recent Grammy trend towards younger demographics, I think it's more likely this album goes the way of its predecessor and picks up wins in the less-competitive 'Best Traditional Vocal Pop' categories.
Medicine at Midnight // Foo Fighters
Another group that hardly screams "fresh and young!" but has a rich Grammy pedigree: Foo Fighters! There was a period in time where it felt like every time Foo Fighters dropped a new album, you could count on it being nominated for some major Grammys, regardless of its mainstream exposure, and Medicine at Midnight is their best-reviewed album since their last Album of the Year nominee, Wasting Light. That said, neither of their last two albums got a nod for top honors, and it's hard to argue that Foo Fighters are any more relevant in 2021 than they were in 2018.
Pressure Machine // The Killers
The Killers have never been particularly beloved by the Grammys: even in their heyday, the band were only ever nominated for a total of 6 awards, all within the Rock categories, and never to any avail. Smart money says that trend will continue this time around; after all, when was the last time you heard a Killers song on the radio, 2006? But Coldplay's surprise nomination last year for Everyday Life gave me hope for another childhood favorite. Much like Coldplay's album, Pressure Machine was the quietest release yet from an alternative band that ruled the 2000s, but was also a total change of direction from prior work that saw their best critical reviews to date.
Shore // Fleet Foxes
I won't waste too much of your time. Fleet Foxes getting nominated for Album of the Year is almost surely a pipe dream. If the brilliant Helplessness Blues, released in the height of indie-folk mania, couldn't pull off the feat, it's unlikely Shore, a quiet release in late 2020, will. But after forgetting to even include Coldplay as a contender in my piece last year, I don't want to make the same mistake of counting out the chances of one of my favorite albums of the year from one of my favorite groups of all time.
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, it's important to point out a few factors that will affect how the nominees will look. The most important one is that this is now the fourth year the Grammys will have extended the field for all the major general awards to 8 nominees, from the usual 5. This (presumably) allows them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres, though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees.
To be fair to the Grammys, an award show that I've lambasted year after year, the results from the first year of the extended field were a remarkable success, much like the ceremony last year. All General fields saw thoroughly deserving winners, and the nominees reflected remarkable diversity in genre, race, gender, and even popularity. Sandwiched in the middle though, was a predictable night full of essentially one winner and one winner only (Billie Eilish). It serves as a reminder that as often the Grammys have the capability to surprise, they also have the capacity to underwhelm.
I really don't know what direction to go in this year. My "automatic bid per genre" theory has sort of panned out, with Rap, Hip/Hop, Country, Pop, R&B, Rock, and even Indie Folk all represented in the Album of the Year field the last two years. However, many of the individual nominees-- particularly last year --I would not have seen coming, and a couple I very much expected to see were not among them. The fact that the last three Album of the Year winners are all contenders again this year makes this race exciting, but also adds a layer of difficulty to predict. It seems more consistent with the Academy to go back to the familiar names, but will an organization that's been public about their desire to evolve decide they're done with those women since they've already gotten their awards?
At least in terms of the nominees (not necessarily the ultimate winners), I'm going to go with the 'hot hand' theory. Just like basketball players will keep feeding the ball to a teammate who is shooting lights out on the night until he or she actually starts to miss shots, I'm going to keep predicting Billie Eilish and H.E.R. get all the Grammy love until I actually see otherwise. So that's two set in stone right there. Throw in my other "surefire" pick Olivia Rodrigo, and those three young woman make up almost half my Album of the Year field.
Here's where it gets a little more unpredictable, and I have to venture more into 'guess' territory, just based on recent trends. One recent trend is increased recognition of a beloved indie rock artist or group. Phoebe Bridgers may not have gotten an album of the Year nod last year, but was a surprising 5-time nominee on the night, including for Best New Artist. The year before that saw the unexpected inclusion of both Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend, and in 2019, a hat tip out of nowhere to Brandi Carlile. The best candidate to fill that void this year, in my opinion, is St. Vincent. The unique artist has a lot of admirers in the industry, and this record was more stripped-down (read: accessible) than her previous work.
I also think, after two years with no such nominees, a straight-up Rap release will have to be nominated. The obvious candidate here is reigning Best New Artist Megan Thee Stallion. But, though I'd be delighted for her if that comes to fruition, I actually am going to go with Tyler, the Creator. I remember thinking Ariana Grande's nomination in 2020 for thank u, next was really more about her snub for sweetener than anything else; even though the former was actually the better-reviewed, its predecessor was much more an encapsulation of 'the year of Ariana.' I think the same logic will apply with Tyler here: Call Me If You Get Lost is his best-reviewed work to date, and though it didn't make quite the same cultural splash as his last album, a nomination will appease the fans that were livid over the IGOR snub in 2020. If I have to guess, though, the main theme-- if there is one --that will run through this field of nominees is youth movement. I think the Grammys are starved for cultural relevance and there will be a concerted effort to give not only prominent air time, but prominent nominations to the various young artists who have found a pathway to success through TikTok and devoted young fans. That leads me to think the rest of the field will be filled out by Li'l Nas X, Doja Cat and...yes, I'm gonna do it, the Kid LAROI.
So, my final prediction, in alphabetical order, is:
Back Of My Mind // H.E.R.
Call Me If You Get Lost // Tyler, the Creator
Daddy's Home // St. Vincent
F*ck Love 3+: Over You // the Kid LAROI
Happier Than Ever // Billie Eilish
MONTERO // Li'l Nas X
Planet Her // Doja Cat
SOUR // Olivia Rodrigo
The following just missed my cut, and if nominated, should be considered in the tier of "Gahhhh, I knew I should have predicted that":
Good News // Megan Thee Stallion
evermore // Taylor Swift
star-crossed // Kacey Musgraves
Heaux Tales // Jazmine Sullivan
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