Grammy Preview: Album of the Year Contestants
If you're anything like me, it felt like the 2023 Grammy Awards happened, like, two months ago. It doesn't seem like the 2024 edition should be on the horizon. Maybe that's just because I have only recently stopped ranting about the snubs from this year's awards, or maybe it's because after three straight years of COVID-shifted timelines, the end of the eligibility period and the announcement of the next nominees are both coming sooner than we've gotten used to.
Yes, we're back in pre-pandemic 'business as usual' when it comes to the Grammys: earlier in 2023, we saw the return to Los Angeles and the Staples Center for the first time in three years, and now the important checkpoint dates-- eligibility, nominations, voting, and main ceremony --are back in line with how they looked in 2019/20. That means in just 10 days, we musicheads, with eager anticipation, will once again see what from October 2022-September 2023 will be nominated for what is billed as “Music’s biggest night.” As always, my highest level of interest is in the Album of the Year award, widely considered to be the Grammy equivalent of the Best Picture. Let's take a look at some works that I expect to be in the running:
Surefire Candidates
GUTS // Olivia Rodrigo
Olivia may have not seen the clean sweep at the 2022 Grammys that I predicted she would, but neither did she leave empty-handed that night, taking home trophies for Best New Artist, Best Pop Album and Best Pop Song. Her sophomore record GUTS, released just one week before the end of this eligibility period, was even more of a commercial smash and critically-acclaimed than debut SOUR was. I find it hard to imagine the Recording Academy will leave out one of the biggest young stars in pop music.
Midnights // Taylor Swift
I think it's safe to declare the short-lived era of "Taylor Swift Grammys fatigue" over. After 2017's Reputation and 2019's Lover landed the pop star zero major Grammy nominations, many (including myself) wondered if the Academy was just kinda over the oft-awarded singer-songwriter. But in 2021, there she was again, collecting Album of the Year a record 3rd time, for folklore, and was right back amongst the nominees the following year for evermore, and then amongst the Record and Song of the Year crowd this year, for her re-release of "All Too Well." Swift is one of the biggest stars on the planet, just completed a massive, economy-boosting stadium tour, and every single track from Midnights charted on the Billboard Top 100. Regardless of what you think about it, bet the farm on it at least being nominated for Album of the Year.
Contenders
Barbie: The Album // Various Artists
It used to be fairly commonplace for movie soundtracks to be nominees for, and even to win, Album of the Year. Yet, the only example that can be pulled since O Brother, Where Art Thou's win in 2002 was Black Panther's compilation album's nod 5 years ago . The good news for Barbie fans is that the parallels to the Black Panther nomination are pretty plentiful: it was easily the buzziest movie of the year, the album featured a drool-inducing cast of stars, all of whom put out bangers that function simultaneously as radio hits and narrative progression within the film.
But Here We Are // Foo Fighters
Foo Fighters haven't seen major Grammys nominations nor airtime for their last couple albums, but they once were mainstays at the awards, including among the nominees for Album of the Year. With the critical acclaim for But Here We Are, and the emotional pull of their first record after the tragic death of drummer Taylor Hawkins, don't be surprised if Dave Grohl and co. are invited back to the Grammys stage.
Chemistry // Kelly Clarkson
Kelly Clarkson isn't regularly churning out radio hits the way she was from the mid-2000s to the mid-2010s, but she is still an incredible singer and an adored figure, even getting her own talk show in recent years. Chemistry, an album written in the wake of her divorce, is Clarkson at her most personal, and the concept album a unique turn. She may just have harbored enough goodwill and appreciation to be a Grammy nominee once more.
Did You Know There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd.? // Lana del Rey
Nobody does an album title like Lana del Rey, huh? 4 years after confounding Grammy censors with her multiple nominations for Norman Fucking Rockwell!, Did You Know... marks Lana's best chance at an elusive Grammy. Before her multiple nods in 2020 for NFR, the niche indie-pop crooner didn't often turn Recording Academy heads at all. This album hasn't seemed to generate quite as much breathless word-of-mouth as her first Grammy-nominated record did, but was nearly as universally acclaimed, and plays like its spiritual successor.
Endless Summer Vacation // Miley Cyrus
In keeping with the theme of the last two artists, Miley is a pop queen whose popularity and appreciation has far outpaced her Grammy recognition. In the entirety of her career, she's only earned one solo nod, a nomination for Best Pop Album in 2015 for Bangerz (it lost to Sam Smith's In The Lonely Hour). Endless Summer Vacation was her best-reviewed project since that album, and though the buzz about the record itself died down fairly quickly, lead single "Flowers" was a smash, and is likely a contender for Song and Record of the Year. Could Miley's name recognition, earned goodwill in the industry, and banger of a lead single earn her a long overdue Album of the Year nomination?
Gettin' Old // Luke Combs
Gettin' Old is the sequel-- but more accurately, a companion album --to 2022's Growin' Up, which scored a nod for Best Country Album. I would expect to see Combs in that field again, the question is whether he could break through to the main general fields. It's not a category that is typically kind to Country artists: the only Country-adjacent nominee since Kacey Musgraves' surprise win in 2019 was Brandi Carlile last year. That said, Luke is a heavyweight within the genre, and as a 5-time Grammy nominee (including for Best New Artist 4 years ago), he's clearly on the Academy's radar.
Heroes and Villains // Metro Boomin'
Record producer Metro Boomin' has a pretty absurd discography, but that has not translated to much awards success. That said, his collaborative album, Heroes and Villains, hit #1 in Billboard in late 2022 ito early 2023, and employs a star-studded cast including The Weeknd, Travis Scott, John Legend, Future, and 21 Savage, to name just a select few. In a year pretty devoid of huge Hip-Hop releases, it might fill that void nicely in this year's field.
One Thing At A Time // Morgan Wallen
Similarly to Luke Combs, Morgan Wallen broke out onto the scene a few years ago, and has quickly become one of the biggest names in Country. Unlike Combs, this album was fairly panned, and also the artist has been a firestorm for controversies, be it for recklessness in the height of the pandemic, for video of him shouting a racial slur, or for DUI charges. He apologized for and owned up to each, but he may be seen as too toxic to touch. That said, the Grammys haven't exactly seemed to care too much about personal life controversies too much, and there's no denying Wallen's star power in country fandom.
SOS // SZA
That's right! Taylor Swift isn't the only artist to drop a hugely successful album in late 2022 that spawned a hugely successful stadium tour in 2023 in contention this year! SZA isn't quite the level of star Swift is, nor do the Grammys exactly have a scintillating track record of recognizing black women (although she has been nominated 15 times, and won Best Pop Performance with Doja Cat for "Kiss Me More" two years ago), so I hesitate to call her nomination a lock. But surely she is among the favorites to make the final cut, and perhaps even among the favorites for the award itself. SOS ended up as one of the best-reviewed releases of 2022 (in an absolute monster year for music), and there's nobody in R&B with mainstream appeal like SZA right now.
Stick Season // Noah Kahan
If you ever get wrapped up in Music Twitter, or if you have friends from New England, you've likely heard of Noah Kahan, the latest 'white boy with a guitar' to capture the hearts of white women everywhere. The 26-going-on-40 year old from Vermont plays a like a spiritual successor to The Lumineers or Mumford and Sons, some 10 years or so after the fading of that style's popularity. I'm not sure if he's quite big enough to have caught the eye of the Recording Academy, but they love throwing a "new" artist in the mix for some of the biggest awards at all, and when Olivia Rodrigo covers you on BBC, that gives you some cred.
Subtract // Ed Sheeran
Ed Sheeran has a weird history at the Grammys. His only nomination for this award came for his 2014 album X, but he struck out on any awards until winning Song of the Year "Thinking Out Loud." Then his 2017 album Divide, which was everywhere, and I mean EVERYWHERE, somehow didn't land him any major Grammy nods, though it did go on to win Best Pop Album. Then, last year, he landed a fairly out-of-nowhere Record of the Year nod for "Bad Habits," a song that was not particularly big nor particularly good. All this to say, Subtract was neither his biggest nor best, but it did nothing to lose him fans either, and launched a successful stadium world tour. Maybe that's all it takes to catch the eye of the Grammys.
The Record // boygenius
boygenius, the supergroup of Phoebe Bridgers, Julien Baker, Lucy Dacus is the rare supergroup whose undeniable chemistry just makes total sense. The three artists, beloved in their own right, have complementary strengths yet vastly similar appeals. Unsurprisingly, The Record was a massive success; despite none of the three having much of a mainstream radio presence, the group's album debuted in the Billboard Top 5, and per Metacritic, is the best-reviewed wide release of 2023. Had Phoebe Bridgers not landed in the field for several big time awards at the 2021 Grammys, I'd be skeptical that her group had made enough inroads to catch Grammy attention, but by now, the Academy members would have to be living under a rock to have not heard boygenius nor the shouts of their adoring fans.
UTOPIA // Travis Scott
Travis Scott is a risky pick to even put in tier of 'solid contender.' This experimental album, his first in 5 years, was for more divisive among fans and critics alike than its predecessor ASTROWORLD. That 2018 album was also commercially inescapable, with mutiple radio hits, including the megasmash "SICKO MODE," and yet, it failed to land him an Album of the Year nomination as well as a single Grammy win within the Rap categories. The rapper himself has also fallen in public graces since that time, being at the epicenter of the tragic crowd crush at his AstroWorld Festival in 2021. And yet? As mentioned above, I'm skeptical industry insiders care too much about personal controversy when it comes to which horses to back, and Travis Scott's popularity can't be denied. Put it this way: Taylor Swift's Midnights had stayed atop the charts the entire year, until finally meeting its end in July...to UTOPIA.
World Music Radio // Jon Batiste
"Jon Batiste! He's great! But he's not gonna be nominated for Album of the Year at the Grammys, lol," you say confidently. And I would have agreed with you up until early 2022, when he became the most-nominated artist at the 63rd Grammy Awards, landing amongst the field for the three biggest awards of all, and then WON Album of the Year for WE ARE. In the long, mostly-blah history of this award, this had to rank among the few truly stunning upsets. But nobody is forgetting Batiste now, not when he clearly has so many admirers in the Academy. World Music Radio is nothing all too different from Batiste sonically nor thematically. But you just don't write off a former champ, not in a year with a weak field, and with an album that hits the same notes as the last one.
Zach Bryan // Zach Bryan
Heard the name Zach Bryan? If not, don't feel bad. Most haven't, and I hadn't until a month or so ago, when I saw his name pop up on Twitter for collaborating with Kacey Musgraves and mouthing off at a cop who pulled him over on his way to a show. Naturally, I was predisposed to like him. But regardless of what I think, why is he here among the strong contenders? By aligning himself with Musgraves and Maggie Rogers, he's made himself enough of a name to be on the industry radar. And working for him is a combination of Noah Kahan's "fast-rising new guy on the scene" appeal and Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs' "country is underrepresented" angle.
Longshots
The Age of Pleasure // Janelle Monáe
Janelle Monáe's much-anticipated album, her first since 2018, was released this summer and was a perfect summertime vibe. That 2018 album Dirty Computer did land Janelle an Album of the Year nomination (and a fiery primetime performance), and with an even more open nominee field this year, her name could very well be called again. That said, I suspect the considerably more muted commercial and critical reception to this one might spell trouble for its chances.
The Album // The Jonas Brothers
The JoBros have very little in common with Janelle Monáe, but in this regard, their album is in a similar point. They, too, came back with their first new release in several years after their exciting reunion in 2019, but despite the buzz leading up to the release, commentary about it quickly died out, and the critics were not fans. They're still some of the biggest stars in the music scene, so you can't really write them off, but if their bigger and better Happiness Begins couldn't land them a nod four years ago, I'd be a little surprised if this one does.
Desire, I Want To Turn Into You // Caroline Polachek
Caroline Polacheck has logged 15+ years as a beloved indie artist, first as half of the group Chairlift, and in more recent years as a solo artist. She never has gotten any Grammy recognition, other than as a collaborator on Beyoncé's self-titled album in 2014, so it stands to reason that this won't suddenly be the year she breaks through. But, in a weak year and with an album that enthralled the critics and the Twittersphere alike, maybe her longstanding respect in the music industry will finally pay off.
Gloria // Sam Smith
Sam Smith exploded onto the scene with their first album in 2014. In The Lonely Hour and its lead single "Stay With Me" landed Smith 6 Grammy nominations, and wins for Best New Artist, Best Pop Album, Song of the Year and Record of the Year. Then came several releases that were met with less commercial and critical enthusiasm, and Smith was absent from all Grammys ceremonies...until last year, when they returned to win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance for their collaboration with Kim Petras on "Unholy." Might the album for which that was the lead single follow suit? Gloria was once again released to only mild success and acclaim, so it would be a bit of a surprise if that moved the needle for them, but obviously, the Academy are no strangers to-- and in fact seem to be big fans of --Smith.
Good Riddance // Gracie Abrams
It's not often a young artist will crash a major award category without being a really big breakout star-- H.E.R. is an obvious exception from recent years, but generally, I'm thinking of your Billie Eilishes and Lordes, your Taylor Swifts and Justin Biebers, your Li'l Nas X's and Olivia Rodrigos. And Gracie Abrams still isn't a name you and your kids have heard of the way those artists named above rapidly became. But she's already adored in online musichead circles, and given the personal connection to and stylistic similarities with the likes of Swift and Rodrigo, don't be shocked if you see Gracie pop up in some Grammy categories you didn't expect to.
Let's Start Here // Lil Yachty
Lil Yachty is a pretty popular name in Rap, but it's not a surprise that his only Grammy nomination ever was for featuring on D.R.A.M.'s mainstream bop "Broccoli." Yatchy has always been considered a bit of an obscure artist, and that was even before coming out of nowhere with Let's Start Here, an album inspired as much by psychadelic rock and funk as anything else. That said, it certainly was one of the buzziest releases from 2023, and as mentioned above, there's a shortage of obvious Hip-Hop contenders. If the Academy is looking for one to throw amongst the nominees, they could certainly do worse than to Start Here.
Only The Strong Survive // Bruce Springsteen
For many years, really up until the last decade or so, the Grammys had a reputation for being stuck in the past, and too easily nostalgic for the great artists of years past. This is how we got, in a 5-year stretch in the mid-2000s, the likes of Ray Charles, Herbie Hancock, Alisson Krauss and Jimmy Page winning Album of the Year over such stars as Kanye West, Usher, Radiohead, Coldplay, Amy Winehouse and Li'l Wayne. They have certainly trended towards the here and now over the last decade, but the nominations in the last two years of Tony Bennett and ABBA, as well as last year's stunning "Song of the Year" win for Bonnie Raitt, showed us this tendency might be enjoying a bit of a comeback. In a year without too many heavy hitters from the 'stars of today,' maybe the overwhelming amount of fans and goodwill that a legend like Bruce Springsteen has built up over the years will shine through.
Snow Angel // Reneé Rapp
Much of what I wrote a few spots above about Gracie Abrams could apply to Rapp's chances as well. She's still probably just enough outside the mainstream-- and in a lane that will be clogged with similar artists --to break through this year. But the Grammys do love to highlight new artists in categories other than just Best New Artist, and if voters are already in the "good #sadgirl music" frame of mind from the Olivia Rodrigo they're listening to, Renée might court some votes as well.
Prediction Time
Before I get into my predictions, it's important to point out a few factors that will affect how the nominees will look. The most important one is that, in another reversion to pre-pandemic times, the Grammys have announced they are going back to 8 nominees for the General categories, after tinkering with as many as 10 for a few years. In 2019, they had just expanded from 5 to 8, and that was presumably to allow them to include and accomodate a wider variety of genres-- though that was also the thought behind the Oscars expanding their Best Picture field, and that change has mostly seen a higher number of the same kind of nominees.
To be fair to the Grammys, an award show that I've lambasted year after year, the results from the first year of the extended field were a remarkable success. All General fields that year saw thoroughly deserving winners, and the nominees reflected remarkable diversity in genre, race, gender, and even popularity. In the years since, though, we got a predictable night full of essentially one winner and one winner only (Billie Eilish), then a year with a stunning and confusing winner for Album of the Year (Jon Batiste), then a year where an absolutely star-studded field yielded an agreeable but underwhelming winner (Harry Styles). It serves as a reminder that as often the Grammys have the capability to surprise, they also have the capacity to disappoint.
I really don't know what direction to go in this year. My "automatic bid per genre" theory has sort of panned out, with Rap, Hip/Hop, Country, Pop, R&B, Rock, and even Disco all represented in the Album of the Year field the last two years. However, many of the individual nominees-- not as much this past year, but certainly in the two years preceding --I would not have seen coming, and a couple I very much expected to see were not among them. There's also the fact that the nominees in the era of an expanded field have tended to be diverse not just in genre, but in race, gender and age. That you can have Tony Bennett, Li'l Nas X, Olivia Rodrigo, Kendrick Lamar, Beyoncé, Brandi Carlile, ABBA, Bad Bunny, and Billie Eilish all included in a two-year span means that just about any of the nominees listed in this article aren't out of the question.
I see a lot of similarities between this race and the race two years ago, and it's not just because Olivia Rodrigo and Taylor Swift are involved again. It's that, just like in 2021, there were no mega-smash albums apart from those two, and even those two weren't exactly a deviation form the norm, or a cultural reset the way past albums, from Swift herself, from Billie Eilish, from Beyoncé, even from Ariana Grande, have been. There also haven't been too many critically-adored releases over the last 13 months in general, and even fewer from artists or bands that would even be on the Academy's radar. Put another way... and I do hate to sound like a snarky white guy, so I'll whisper this part quietly: *it just hasn't been a very good year for music.* Last year's AOTY field included all of the biggest albums of the year from megastars, and even the few surprise nominees were at least names that everybody had heard of (ABBA, Coldplay, Mary J. Blige). I don't anticipate that being the case in 2023.
I'll start with my two surefire candidates in Olivia and Taylor, and go from there to what I think the next "buzzy" ones will be, because you know the Grammys care about eyeballs and engagement. They may not be the biggest mainstream names, but SZA, boygenius, and Lana del Rey all have extremely devoted fanbases (especially in the Twittersphere) and releases that the majority of critics fawned over. I'd be somewhat surprised if that trio, and especially the first two, don't make the final cut. And there's over half my field already!
For the remaining 3 spots, I'm going with various unrelated strands of logic. First, the more I've thought about it, the more I can't shake the circumstantial parallels between the Barbie album and the Black Panther album, and there's one more significant similarity: just like with this year, Black Panther was in the mix in a year with few surefire nominees or a clear frontrunner.
Secondly, I've noticed more than one instance of the Grammys latching on to someone 'surprising,' and never really letting them go. H.E.R. is the most extreme example, the little-known R&B artist who suddenly boasted 3 Album of the Year, a Best New Artist and 3 Record/Song of the Year nods in a 4-year span. But there's also Brandi Carlile, who was a surprise inclusion in the 2019 AOTY race, but wouldn't you know it, was back in it this past year with her next album, and also found herself in the Song of the Year category 4 times in a 5-year span. Who's that candidate this time? Well, none other than Jon Batiste, whose surprise nomination two years ago yielded a surprise victory. World Music Radio isn't all that different stylistically from the winning WE ARE, and the field is even weaker this time around. Why couldn't it be him?
And finally, not all the time, but oftentimes, there's a spot or two reserved for a new face who burst onto the scene this year. This was Olivia Rodrigo a couple years ago, Billie Eilish the year before that, Li'l Nas X, Lizzo, and H.E.R. in the preceding awards. In a year as open as this one, I wouldn't be surprised to see a head nod to one of the artists that exploded in popularity and whose rise is shrouded in goodwill. But the runaway favorite for the Best New Artist (and, by default, this spot) is Ice Spice, who doesn't have an eligible album in contention. This leads me to think it might be a 'non-problematic, flannel-wearing white boy' battle royale between New England breathy crooner Noah Kahan, and woke country up-and-comer Zach Bryan. I think Kahan has crossed over into the mainstream slightly more, but given that Bryan could represent both a win for the new guard and for country music, I'll give him the slight edge.
So if you've lost track- my final prediction, in alphabetical order, is:
Barbie: The Album // Various artists
Did You Know There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd.? // Lana del Rey
GUTS // Olivia Rodrigo
Midnights // Taylor Swift
The Record // boygenius
SOS // SZA
World Music Radio // Jon Batiste
Zach Bryan // Zach Bryan
The following just missed my cut, and if nominated, should be considered in the tier of "Gahhhh, I knew I should have predicted that":
Stick Season // Noah Kahan
Endless Summer Vacation // Miley Cyrus
But Here We Are // Foo Fighters
UTOPIA // Travis Scott
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