Champions League Final Preview

The first time I ever did a Champions League Final preview on this blog, it was for the 2018 Final. Before that match, I did my best to type out an unbiased analysis amidst my breathless anticipation for the showdown between my least favorite club Real Madrid, and my favorite club Liverpool.

4 years later, nearly to the day, I am here to preview this year's Champions League Final, between... Real Madrid and Liverpool. The more they stay the same, right?

The two clubs playing don't just elicit strong emotional reactions from myself; these are two of the most famous clubs in the World, and as such, if you don't love one of them, you probably hate them, or at least take no joy in their success. But love them or hate them, there will be plenty of eyeballs on this matchup, because beyond the strength of their brand recognition alone comes the matter of their actual strengths on the field, and it's no exaggeration to say that these two very well could be the two best soccer teams on the planet at the moment. As if the stage could be set even more deliciously, they meet almost perfectly in the middle in Paris. The French capital is a surprise host, representing the third consecutive tournament that has seen its Final host city switched in the latter stages of the tournament. Where 2020 and 2021 editions were relocated to Portuguese cities for COVID precautions, this one was taken away from Saint Petersburg in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It was the right decision, and though UEFA brass could not have known at the time who would be meeting in the Final, they could not have picked a better new location, as it turns out.

Although the teams in many ways are wildly different than the last time they played each other, and I will be shocked if the match plays out the exact same way, there are a shocking number of similarities at play from Champions Leagues of past years, and we very well could see the same end result as 2018. More on that later on, but before we get there, we must go backwards.

Since 2018 Final: Where Are They Now?

When I was writing the preview for the 2018 Final, never in a million years could I have expected what sort of years were in store for my beloved Liverpool. A big part of what made that 2018 loss to Madrid so crushing was the prospect that their amazing run to the Final had been somewhat of a fluke, that it would be the Reds' last real chance on the big stage for some time.

Boy, was I wrong. Liverpool immediately followed up their heartbreak with a remarkable 2018-19 season that saw them lose just one match in the Premier League, earning 97 points and a record-setting, razor-thin 2nd place finish. They also got back to the Champions League Final the very next year, and this year, as the favorites, would make the most of the opportunity and dispatch of Tottenham Hotspur to win their 6th European title. The season after that, their laser focus turned to the Premier League that they had fallen achingly short of winning, and that mission was accomplished by blasting the doors off the rest of the league en route to 99 points and their first trophy in 30 years. 2020-21 was an extremely difficult season in which they had to deal with the loss of their famous home support, a truly absurd accruing number of injuries, and the mockery of English fans and pundits alike of their turbulent title defence... so they responded by surging down the stretch to a Top 3 finish in the league and setting up this incredible 2021-22 season, which has seen them win two domestic cups, push Manchester City in the Premier League race all the way to the final day, and of course, reach the Champions League Final once again.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, has undergone a bit of an upheaval in the years since that 2018 Final. The year after, their defence of 3 straight Champions League titles ended with a shock loss to Ajax in the Round of 16. They suffered a Round of 16 exit the following year as well to Manchester City, and despite coming closer last season, still lost in the Semifinals to underdogs (but eventual champions) Chelsea. Amidst all of this, they also lost their talismanic striker Cristiano Ronaldo, and for all intents and purposes, lost the use of the 2018 Final's Man of the Match Gareth Bale. Where Liverpool has held on to Jürgen Klopp this whole time, Madrid have undergone some manager upheaval too; the short stints by Julian Lopetegui and Santiago Solari were both ill-fated, and brought about the quick and unexpected return of Zinedine Zidane. Zidane departed once more (this time seemingly for good) after last season, making way for the return of the great Carlo Ancelotti. Despite all of this movement, Real did continue to find some success domestically, winning La Liga in 2019-20 and again this season.

Deja Vú All Over Again

Is fate at play for one of the teams in today's Final? Ask the die-hards of both clubs, and they will probably tell you that their team is destined to win. And though you may scoff, it's not too hard to see either side might think that, when juxtaposing how the 2021-22 season has played out with years of past glory.

For Real Madrid, so many of the same ingredients of their 2018 triumph over Liverpool are present again in 2022: while their opponent reached the last stage with an arguably 'easy' path, dominating overmatched Cinderella foes in the knockout stages, Real's path to the Final has been a wild, bumpy ride against Europe's elite. In 2018, it was offing Paris Saint-Germain in the Round of 16 before surviving second-tie, last-minute chaos against both Juventus in the quarterfinals and Bayern Munich in the semifinals. In 2022, they looked as good as dead against Paris Saint-Germain in the Round of 16 before a lightning-quick Karim Benzema hat trick stunned their French foes. In the quarterfinals, it looked as if they were on their way to choking a 2-goal advantage to reigning champions Chelsea at home before an 80th minute Rodrygo goal took the match to extra time, where Benzema again provided the winner. And of course, who can forget the semifinals wherein they were good as dead against Manchester City before Rodrygo's brace within 90 seconds shocked the visitors into overtime, where (guess who?) Benzema slotted home a penalty for the win. Oh, and there's the small matter of having a manager who is one of the few to have won this tournament both as player and coach, playing Mohamed Salah in a year in which he was the Premier League's top scorer and player of the year, and playing Liverpool on Memorial Day weekend, in a World Cup year.

But lest you think all the supernatural signs point to Real Madrid, Liverpudlians would ask you to consider their 2019 triumph. In 2018-19, they lost the Premier League in heartbreaking fashion, by one point to Manchester City on the very last day of the league, despite a two-goal win over Wolverhampton at home. This past Sunday, they lost the Premier League in heartbreaking fashion, by one point to Manchester City on the very last day of the league, despite a two-goal win over Wolverhampton at home. In both years, they would get a chance at trophy redemption in the Champions League Final instead, because of wins over Portuguese sides in the quarterfinals (Porto in 2019, Benfica in 2022) and Spanish sides in the semifinals (Barcelona in 2019, Villarreal in 2022). In 2019, Premier League Golden Boot co-winner Mohamed Salah vowed to get "revenge" in the Champions League Final one year after Real Madrid's Sergio Ramos' dirty play forced a cruelly early exit for Salah from the match, and he would score in Liverpool's win over Tottenham. Just this week, 2022 Premier League Golden Boot co-winner Salah is once again speaking of getting revenge over Real Madrid.

The X's and O's, the Vini's and Mo's

Before one can even get to the question of what the most important matchups on the field will be, it would be vital to know who is going to be on the field. At least among the presumed starters, both teams come into today with nothing but good news on the injury front: Real Madrid's David Alaba has resumed training after missing 5 matches in May, and Liverpool's Virgil Van Dijk and Fabinho, both of whom were held out of the season finale against Wolves as a precaution will be good to go, as will, Thiago, apparently, who gave Liverpool fans heart palpitations when he was subbed out early in Sunday's match with what looked like a non-contact injury.

Assuming no last-second injuries or Pep Guardiola-level tinkering, I expect the sides will line up as such:

Liverpool

Real Madrid

Both teams will lay claim to having the best player on the field on their side. Most agree at this point that it's Madrid's Benzema that is the frontrunner for the 2022 Ballon d'Or, but Premier League Player of the Year Mohamed Salah would like to have a say in that, as would Sadio Mané, who won Best Player at the 2022 African Cup of Nations in leading his nation Senegal to their first ever title, and has been on a tear for Liverpool ever since then.

The fact that the above doesn't even touch on the ridiculous talent both clubs can employ at Left Winger (Vinicius Junior for Real, Luis Díaz for Liverpool) indicates there should be no shortage of attacking on display in Paris, then. Both in La Liga and in this Champions League, Real Madrid have proven to be one of the most high-octane teams ever; they will concede chances and goals in bunches, but will score even more goals in even more bunches. So we know that Liverpool's vaunted front three will get their chances to tee off on Thibaut Courtois' goal; the question for the Reds will be whether their forwards have their shooting boots on. Díaz has been a revelation for Liverpool, but his impact has come in the form of pace and creativity more so than goalscoring, at least thus far, and while Mané has fully found his goalscoring boots, Salah, Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino all saw them go missing these last couple months. They will all get their opportunities; just how clinical they intend to be with them might be the difference between a trophy and silver medal in this match.

It's a little less clear-cut for Real; there's no reason to have anything but the utmost confidence in Benzema and Vinicus, but Liverpool's back line will be far and away the best Real have come up against in some time. Van Dijk is the best defender on the planet, and the revolving partners Joel Matip and Ibrahima Konate have both laid serious claim to being the second-best in the league. If Madrid's attack makes it past that duo, they'll find themselves one-on-one with Alisson. The Brazilian keeper was Liverpool's money signing after Loris Karius' disasterclass against Real in the 2018 Final, and he has been worth every penny, coming in at the end of what might have been his finest season yet. Then again, it's not a stretch at all to say that Karim and co. are the most potent attacking front Liverpool will have faced all season, too. It's not like they've been impenetrable all season, either; the Premier League was essentially lost on the back of inexplicable collapses to Brentford, Brighton and Chelsea, and the only other attacking tandem they faced domestically that could rival Real Madrid's, Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min of Tottenham Hotspur, combined for three goals and two assists in two matches against Liverpool. The key matchup there will be whether the dynamic midfield of Fabinho, Thiago and Jordan Henderson is healthy enough to rotate back and provide cover for Liverpool's marauding fullbacks; considering how far forward Alexander-Arnold and Robertson play, if the Madrid wingers beat the Liverpool midfielders down the field once the ball turns over, it could be a long day for the Reds. Similarly, will the game-changing potential of those three midfielders plus Naby Keïta win the day, or will it be the veteran reliability of Luka Modrić, Toni Kroos and Casemiro controlling things in the middle of the park?

And of course, there is the fascinating manager matchup: Carlo Ancelotti, arguably the last of the 'old guard' of greats, vs. Jürgen Klopp, paired inextricably with Manchester City's Pep Guardiola in conversations about the best managers of our time. These two are no strangers despite only overlapping in the same league by a year, having played on 10 occasions since 2014. Only twice has Klopp gotten the better of Ancelotti: a crucial Champions League win over Napoli on the final day of group stage matches in 2018, and in an FA Cup victory over crosstown rivals Everton, both by a 1-0 scoreline. That record is especially impressive when you consider how Liverpool would have been considered the favorite in each of their 8 matches against Everton and Napoli (though it should be noted it also includes two victories by Ancelotti's Champions League-winning Madrid team over Klopp's Borussia Dortmund). Both are classy, respected gentlemen, and will present a fascinating clash of styles. Even the most ardent Man United fan would have to concede that Klopp is one of the best and most innovative managers in the World, but Ancelotti is far from out of tricks.

Prediction Time

Removing my Liverpool lenses for a moment and just viewing this from a neutral perspective, one thing that's fun about this Final is that I really, truly, have no clue how it's going to shake out. And nothing would really surprise me, especially after the tomfoolery that transpired last time these two met in a Final. It's the first time I haven't really had a feeling like I knew who was going to win the Champions League Final since at least 2017, when Real Madrid was looking to repeat as champions (a rare feat) against Italian champions Juventus, who had been denied glory just two years prior. Even the high-powered affair in 2020 managed to have Paris Saint-Germain come in with serious underdog status because of how ridiculously good Bayern Munich had been all tournament.

I really think Liverpool are the better side this time, unlike when these two played in 2018, or even last year in the quarterfinals. They're also arguably more deeper, which is something I never thought I'd say four years ago, when Madrid's substitute won the match for them and Liverpool were stuck subbing off the injured Mohamed Salah for an out-of-form Adam Lallana, and I do think they will be channeling their frustration with coming up a point short in the Premier League (again!!!) into making sure to come home with the Champions League trophy instead (again!!!).

Real Madrid, though, will come in much fresher, having played 10 less matches this year and having had their league title wrapped up since April. They have the best player in the world at the moment in Karim Benzema, and Liverpool have shown signs of falling asleep against dangerous attacking players in the last month, perhaps due to fatigue from their heavy match load.

All in all, though, what it comes down to is that I just can't shake the feeling of 'team of destiny' Real Madrid has, just like they did in the 2018 meeting. Liverpool's loss in the 2016 Europa League Final, 2018 Champions League Final and shock exit in the 2020 Round of 16 were all 3-1 losses to a Spanish side who stunned the Reds with a slew of goals in quick succession. When the two went head-to-head in this tournament last year (albeit amidst bizarre circumstances), two legs ended with an aggregate total of 3-1 in favor to Real Madrid. Given what we've seen this Real side do to opponents this tournament, I can't help but conclude we might see that same old story play out on Saturday. My Liverpool Red heart would love to be wrong, but I have to go with head over heart this time

Real Madrid, 3-1