Champions League Final Preview

Soccer fans worldwide will know we’re in one of those ‘golden years’ where the fun never stops. Sometimes, the end of the domestic season means the doldrums; 3 long months of summer boredom with no high-level footy (sorry, MLS and Liga MX fans), until Europe’s chief leagues resume play again. However, with the thrilling conclusion to league play in England, France, Italy and Spain barely in the rear view mirror, our sights can now turn to a summer filled with the CONCACAF League of Nations Finals, the Copa America, the Gold Cup, and the Euro Cup. But before we get to any of those, there’s one more order of business from the domestic league season: the Champions League Final, club soccer’s Super Bowl.

This year’s Champions League Final features a couple big names in world football, but not names that are typically equated with club soccer’s biggest prize. Manchester City and Chelsea are two of the richest clubs in the World, and now have a combined 10 Premier League and 14 FA Cup titles between them. However, for all their success in the 21st century, Chelsea are making just their 3rd Champions League Final appearance (having won only 1), and for all their success in the last decade, City are making their first appearance in club history. It should also be noted that these two finalists are as familiar with each other as they are unfamiliar with this stage of this competition; the Champions League will be the 4th time (in the 3rd different competition) these two face off in 2020-21.

One final quirk about this particular Final: it will, unlike the vast majority of the Premier League season, feature fans in the stands. More specifically, 12,000 fans will be present in Porto’s Estadio Dragao. It’s the 2nd straight tournament to feature a last-second change of venue to Portugal (last year’s Final being played in Lisbon’s Estadio da Luz). But where last year’s change of scene was required to safely host the match somewhere without fans, this year’s move to Porto was borne out of the desire to safely play somewhere with fans. So good on you, Portugal, for relatively keeping your COVID-related shit together!

Roads to the Final

Both finalists started with what was essentially a stroll through the park in group play, as both topped their groups with 0 losses and a total of 3 conceded goals between them. It should be noted that these were arguably the two easiest groups in the entire tournament. That doesn’t take away from their impressive six match runs, but other than the away legs at European competition mainstays Porto and Sevilla, neither English side had any fixture to really lose sleep over in the first round.

The knockout stages were where the two sides’ paths began to take very different routes. Where Manchester City drew German long shots Borussia Mönchengladbach (and predictably, dispatched of them easily), Chelsea came up against La Liga leaders— and eventual champions —Atlético Madrid. Against a side that had given them trouble in this very competition in the past, the underdog Blues were able to score the upset, stifling Luis Suarez and co. over both legs. In the quarters, Chelsea got a bit of a respite, coming up against plucky but overwhelmed Porto, who they were able to beat thanks to a comfortable 2-0 away win. Manchester City, on the other hand, were faced with trying to stop the free-flowing, nonstop attack of Erling Haaland and Borussia Dortmund. The typically stalwart City defense did concede in both legs, but ultimately their own stars in attack did enough to lift them into the semifinals. The semifinal stage presented one blue blood showdown, and one new blood showdown. In the former, Chelsea met Real Madrid, Europe’s most successful club ever, and though the Spaniards were not at all the strongest versions of themselves, they did enter the tie as slight favorites thanks to their comprehensive quarterfinal round victory over 2019 champions Liverpool. Nevertheless, just as Chelsea had done to their crosstown rivals two rounds earlier, the Blues surprised Madrid with a consistently solid back line and remarkable deftness on the counterattack, and notched a 3-1 aggregate victory to secure their place in the final. On the other side of the bracket, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain met in a clash of big-money, insta-titan clubs both seeking their first European title. The latter came achingly close last year, falling 1-0 in the Final to Bayern Munich, and had every intention of getting back to finish the job this year. But after a first half in Paris that the hosts relatively dominated, it all came unraveling afterwards. Manchester City were able to get two goals (and so outplayed were PSG in the 2nd, they were lucky they didn’t concede more) in the 2nd half and clinch a vital away victory, and the return leg proved too difficult a mountain for the defending runners-up to climb, as City cruised to a 2-0 home win, and a 4-1 aggregate victory to clinch their first ever appearance in a Champions League Final.

Injury/Personnel Report

By virtue of the Champions League Final coming at the end of a long, grueling season of football, both domestically and internationally, it is not uncommon for a significant storyline to be the players that are not available for each team. Fortunately for the neutral observers among us, this final is likely to see two sides close to (if not totally at) full strength. Neither club has any players poised to miss the match due to disciplinary suspension, and the injury list is both short and wholly comprised of players that are likely a go for today.

That said, if any of the names on that short list DO miss tomorrow’s match, it will be a significant blow for each team. For Manchester City, their only doubt is Ilkay Gündoğan, who picked up a knock a couple weeks ago and missed the season finale against Everton as a result. Pep Guardiola has indicated Gündoğan is likely to be available for the match tomorrow, and that would elicit a huge sigh of relief from the City faithful; though their midfield options are hardly limited, Gündoğan has been outrageously good in the calendar year of 2021, finishing the season as Manchester City’s top Premier League goalscorer, and he had replicated his torrid form in the early stages of the Champions League, notching 3 goals there as well. And on the Chelsea side of things, midfielder N’Golo Kante and goalkeeper Edouard Mendy both missed their last match against Aston Villa due to in-game injuries. Thomas Tuchel has expressed optimism that both will be available, but if either (let alone both) can’t play, it significantly hampers Chelsea’s chances. Kante is the engine that makes them tick, and Mendy has completely revitalized their back line, being a consistently dominant and composed presence in goal.

Familiar Foes

As mentioned above, this Champions League Final sees two teams from the same federation, and as such, they have a good bit of recent history. This will be Manchester City and Chelsea’s 4th meeting since January. Having a domestic rematch for top European honors is not altogether uncommon; in fact, this is the 5th instance in the last 9 years. Earlier this decade, it was an all-German affair between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Later came two different Madrid derbies between Real and Atlético Madrid, and then two years ago came England’s turn, with Premier League clubs Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur facing off.

Often times in these matchups between familiar opponents, there’s a side with a clear upper hand; in all of the aforementioned finals, one of the teams playing won the league or at least came within a point of winning the league. Obviously this time around Manchester City, who won their 3rd Premier League title in 4 years, fits that role. However, if you’re looking to prior matchups to gauge this one, it’s ironically the Chelsea fans that have to feel better. Manchester City dominated their first showdown in January with a comfortable 3-1 win, but that was at the tail end of Frank Lampard’s time in charge. A few months after Tuchel was hired on as the Blues’ manager, they faced Manchester City in the FA Cup semifinal, and eliminated the Citizens from the cup behind a stout defensive performance in a 1-0 win. Then, just 3 weeks ago, with City one win away from clinching the Premier League title, playing at home, looking for revenge for that FA Cup defeat, and up a goal at halftime…Chelsea won AGAIN, springing two goals in the 2nd half— including a late winner from Marcos Alonso —and spoiling the title celebrations. Each match between the two clubs was in a wildly different context, as this one will be, so it’s hard to know how much stock to put in the previous meetings, but there certainly is cause for Chelsea to be more optimistic than the clear underdogs of years past (Tottenham in 2019, Liverpool in 2018, Atlético in 2016, Dortmund in 2013, etc.).

Prediction Time

I get why the Liverpool-Tottenham final in 2019 isn’t a perfect template for this showdown, though comparisons are tempting. Despite not actually winning the Premier League, that Liverpool side were stronger and more reliable than this Manchester City side, and despite finishing with less points on the whole, this Chelsea team is stronger than that Tottenham Hotspur side were. Plus, while Tottenham did play Liverpool competitively to the tune of two very hard-fought 2-1 losses that season, that’s not quite the same as outright winning, as Chelsea did twice against City this season.

Still, I can’t help but feel like today’s match might play out a whole lot like that one did. (Hopefully for us neutral observers, there will at least be a whole lot more quality than that slogfest.) Manchester City are not only head-and-neck the best team in England, they’re probably the best team in the World, at least since the turn of the new year. And just as Liverpool were motivated both by losing in the Champions League Final the year before and by losing the Premier League race to Manchester City, City this season will be motivated by years of mockery for their futility outside of England. There's also the issue of Chelsea’s form; wins over City notwithstanding, the Blues sort of stumbled to a finish in the Premier League season, ultimately only qualifying for the Top 4 because of Leicester City’s even worse season conclusion. Ironically, that Top 4 finish, in my eyes, hurts Chelsea’s odds today. I would be a lot more tempted to favor their odds if a victory today was the only way for them to seal Champions League football. But the fact that Manchester City now have a motivation edge— exact revenge for their two losses to Chelsea —to add to their clear talent and depth advantage makes me think this will be too much of a mountain for plucky Chelsea to overcome.

There are arguments to be made for a Chelsea upset today, some fate-based and some fact-based. I won’t be shocked (nor disappointed!) if Thomas Tuchel reigns supreme today. But I will be surprised. This feels like Pep Guardiola’s and Manchester City’s day.

Manchester City, 2-0