Champions League Draw Reaction

It's happened sneakily, but all of a sudden we are entering crunch time for the professional soccer season. Across Europe, many of the domestic leagues are in more competitive races than everybody is used to this time of year. I mean, it's March and Bayern Munich haven't even clinched the Bundesliga! Paris Saint-Germain aren't even in first place in Ligue 1! 3 teams are still in contention for the title in Italy, and 4 still are in Spain.

But more significantly of all, we've reached the quarterfinal stage of the biggest tournament in all of football: the Champions League. Maybe it's the lack of fans, or just the overall chaos of the World, but it feels like this tournament has gotten to this stage quietly. But that's not to say it hasn't been a good one! There have already been stunning group stage eliminations (hello, Manchester United), Cinderella runs in the knockout stages (hello, Porto), and goals galore (hello, Erling Haaland).

And now, with the last matches of the Round of 16 having been played out this week, eight teams remain. This morning, the draw for the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds took place. If you haven't tuned in much the last couple years and are confused how we could have a draw for the semifinals when we don't even know who will be playing: the quarterfinal draw was to set the matchups between the eight remaining teams, and the semifinal draw was to determine the shape of the bracket, i.e. which winners play which. Here's how it shook out (courtesy of CBS):

As you might expect, there are some clear winners from this draw and clear losers. But though that statement could be made about most tournament draws most years, this one seemed to yield an especially stark winner/loser dynamic. Let's take it matchup-by-matchup.

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain

The first quarterfinal matchup drawn is a rematch of last year's Champions League Final. It's pretty hard to top that! PSG, who are already locked in a surprisingly competitive Ligue 1 race, had to have let out a huge groan when they saw their reward for dominating Barcelona in the Round of 16 was to play the defending champions. But at the same time, Bayern Munich, who isn't exactly home free domestically either, couldn't have been too thrilled to see they would once again have to beat the team whose hearts they broke just half a year ago. And if that weren't enough to introduce a little fear to these titans, the winner of this tie will more than likely meet England's champions-elect Manchester City in the semifinals. I think it's safe to declare that the two clubs that faced off for all the glory in late August are the clear "losers" of this draw. But there will have to be a winner in this showdown, and it very well could hinge on whether Neymar will be healthy in time to feature for the Parisians.

Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund is in the midst of a pretty difficult Bundesliga season; Der BVB are currently in 5th place and thus outside the automatic qualifying places for next year's Champions League. Fortunately for them, they've been performing considerably better in this year's Champions League, topping their group in group play, and then knocking off Sevilla in the knockout stages fairly comfortably. Unfortunately for them, they now face a Manchester City team who have been nothing short of dominant since mid-December. And if they are able to pull off the upset of upsets against City, they'll have to replicate the feat against one of the two teams that played for the title last year. Good luck Dortmund! On the City side, it's not all sunshine and rainbows. Their inability to reach the Final under Pep Guardiola has already become legendary, and now they've been drawn into the same side as Bayern Munich and PSG. Plus, if anybody can break down the imperious defensive line that has been so rarely breached the last 3 months, it has to be Erling Haaland and his peers. All that being said, Guardiola and co. have to be pretty relieved that as far as the 'Death Row' side of the bracket goes, they got the clear weakest opponent, and then will face an opponent who will likely still be in the midst of a tough league battle.

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool

Just one Champions League Final rematch? "Ha!", said the draw gods. These quarterfinals will also see a rematch of the 2018 Final. You might remember this, for better or for worse, as the Loris Karius Final. Karius no longer plays for Liverpool, and on the Madrid side, Los Blancos no longer have star player Cristiano Ronaldo nor that game's Man of the Match Gareth Bale. But there are a fair amount of familiar faces from those two sides still, including the manager on both touchlines, as well as tragic figure Mohamed Salah and villain Sergio Ramos, the latter of whom injured the former (perhaps intentionally, depending on who you ask) early into the match. All the above makes for some tasty, tasty storylines in this tie. But really, even without that precedent, this would be an exciting tie. These are two of the biggest names in club football, with loads of history and accolades, and yet both have largely had a season to forget. Real Madrid were eliminated from the Copa del Rey by a second-division team and have spent the entirety of La Liga season looking up at rivals Alético Madrid and now Barcelona. Liverpool, meanwhile, have suffered a frankly absurd rash of injuries and relatedly, have been in utter freefall in the Premier League since Christmas. Somehow, though, both have managed to string together quality performances in the Champions League, and amazingly, considering their form, one of them will be in the semifinals if not beyond. Despite all of their personnel issues, Liverpool do still have enough key pieces in place to exact revenge on Madrid. The key will be how well their 4th and 5th-choice centerbacks can hang tough against the always problematic Madrid front line.

Porto vs. Chelsea

The first quarterfinal draw yielded the most difficult matchup to predict; it's only fitting that we end with the easiest to predict. With all due respect to Porto, Chelsea fans have to be absolutely licking their chops at the draw they've been granted. And respect is due to Porto! The Portuguese stalwarts have now made the knockout stages in 5 consecutive tournaments, and just offed Ronaldo and Juventus in the last round. Chelsea can take them lightly at their own peril. That said, I don't think it's unfair to say probably every team remaining was crossing their fingers that they would draw Porto as their quarterfinal opponent, and not only has Chelsea done that, they've avoided being on the same side of the bracket as arguably the 3 best teams left in the competition. If this were earlier in the year, I might be willing to consider this more of a toss-up. But just look at the domestic performances: Porto currently trails league leaders Benfica by 10 points in the Primeira Liga, and since hiring Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea haven't lost once, conceding only TWO GOALS in 14 matches.

We shall see whether the way tournament plays out bears out these assessments in just a couple weeks. I'll save my bona fide predictions for the week of the matches themselves, but for now, I have to imagine it's a good time to be a Manchester City or a Chelsea fan.