2025 Emmy Predictions
- Daniel Woodiwiss
- 3 minutes ago
- 13 min read
Tonight, the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards take place! We at The Couch will be watching as invested-- and at least somewhat informed --viewers, start to finish.
The Emmys occupy a weird place in the calendar. Late December all the way through March is awards season for most television and certainly movies, and the Grammys-- the premier celebration for music --is almost always nestled in there as well. Yet, save for the exception of the strike-delayed 2023 ceremony two years ago, the Primetime Emmys always tend to come on a random September weekend, right at the end of summer and on the cusp of the fall TV slate. Given this abnormal timing and the distance between the end of most nominated programs' seasons and this ceremony's airdate, hype for this show often gets lost in the media cycle in comparison to its award show peers. But regardless, we're here all the same! Celebrating the best in television from summer 2024-spring 2025!
I'm far from an expert, but as a moderately informed, wholly invested television fan, I have put together our Emmy predictions and added some analysis for you as comprehensively as I can. That said, for those of you that are not aware, there is a TON of television out there. So, though this will mimic similar preview pieces we've done on Grammy and Oscar shows of the past, with "Will Win" and "Should Win" offerings as well, I apologize in advance for any instances of us being out of the loop on a show you may know and love more than we do. Now, enough caveat, let's get these award predictions rolling!
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy
Luca Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, Hacks ("A Slippery Slope")
Hannah Bos, Paul Thureen, and Bridget Everett, Somebody Somewhere ("AGG")
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary ("Back to School")
Nathan Fielder, Carrie Kemper, Adam Locke-Norton, and Eric Notarnicola, The Rehearsal ("Pilot's Code")
Sam Johnson, Sarah Naftalis, and Paul Simms, What We Do In The Shadows ("The Finale")
Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Peter Huyck, Alex Gregory, and Frida Perez, The Studio ("The Promotion")
Will Win: Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Peter Huyck, Alex Gregory, and Frida Perez
Could Win: Luca Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky
Should Win: Nathan Fielder, Carrie Kemper, Adam Locke-Norton, and Eric Notarnicola
Snubbed: Bill Lawrence, Brett Goldstein, and Jason Segel, Shrinking ("The Last Thanksgiving")
Thoughts?
In the years in which the Emmys feel like spreading the wealth around, the writing/directing categories are often where they will throw a bone to another deserving show that's not poised to win a big one. In that vein, it wouldn't be shocking to see a deserved win for Nathan Fielder and co. for their truly jaw-dropping episode of The Rehearsal, which was one of the most talked-about episodes of television all year. More often than not, though, and increasingly in recent years, the Academy picks a couplel favorites to reward over and over on the night. Given that The Studio is favored to have a big night overall, I would expect that the wins for Seth Rogen and his crew early in the night with this one. As happy as I am to see more Shrinking representation in these Emmys than there was after their first season, I was shocked to see their tremendous, funny and heartfelt season finale snubbed from this field.
Outstanding Directing for a Drama
Jessica Lee Gagné, Severance ("Chikhai Bardo")
Amanda Marsalis, The Pitt ("6:00 PM")
Janus Metz, Andor ("Who Are You?")
Adam Randall, Slow Horses ("Hello Goodbye")
Ben Stiller, Severance ("Cold Harbor")
John Wells, The Pitt ("7:00 AM")
Mike White, The White Lotus ("Amor Fati")
Will Win: Ben Stiller
Could Win: Amanda Marsalis
Should Win: Jessica Lee Gagné
Snubbed: Mark Mylod, The Last of Us ("Through The Valley")
Thoughts?
The writing and directing categories for both Comedy and Drama should be exciting, but I highlight this award for one specific reason: to discuss "Chikhai Bardo." Jessica Lee Gagné has already carved out a nice career as a talented cinematographer, but made her directorial debut in Season 2 of Severance with one of the most astounding hours of dramatic storytelling we've seen in some time. Oddsmakers expect a win here either for The Pitt, or for Gagné's boss Ben Stiller to take home the award for his directon of the Season 2 finale. The latter would make sense, both because the finale was brilliant as well and because Stiller-- who has been confirmed to not be directing any episodes in the next season --is yet to receive his plaudits for this series. But boy, in a perfect world, this trophy would be going home to Gagné without question.
A beautiful shot of an emotional moment, from an unforgettable episode loaded with them.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Comedy Series
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Will Win: Harrison Ford
Could Win: Ike Barinholtz
Should Win: Ike Barinholtz
Snubbed: Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Thoughts?
This has the feel of a wiiiide open race, and truthfully, I'd be happy with just about any winner. Two-time reigning champ Ebon Moss-Bachrach certainly doesn't need a third consecutive Emmy, especially for The Bear's lackluster 3rd season, but he was every bit as good as he had been in the two years previous. I'm a bit surprised at Colman Domingo's and Bowen Yang's nominations, but they both are so consistently good that I'd be delighted for them to win. I think an open and fairly loaded category might default to beloved industry vet Harrison Ford, who was marvelous, hilarious, and heartwarming in Shrinking yet again. I'd be thrilled for Harrison if so, but given how much I'm going to be rooting for Shrinking over The Studio on the night, this is one category I'd actually be fine going to the favorite, as Ike Barinholtz is consistently the funniest part of that show, and a long underrated force in comedy.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Comedy Series
Liza Colon-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Catherine O'Hara, The Studio
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Will Win: Hannah Einbinder
Could Win: Catherine O'Hara
Should Win: Jessica Williams
Snubbed: Ego Nwodim, Saturday Night Live
Thoughts?
Another loaded category, and another open race! Given how open this one is, conventional wisdom is that this one will go to Hannah Einbinder, who is yet to receive the same recognition that her Hacks co-star Jean Smart has at these Emmys. I've never seen the show, so I can't speak to how well it's deserved, but I do know that reigning winner Liza Colon-Zayas legitimately would be a deserving winner for her "Napkins" episode, which aired very shortly before last year's ceremony. As much as I love Catherine and Kathryn both, neither woman from The Studio felt like a game-changing force in comparison to some of the past comedic roles they've played, and while I'm still desperate for Janelle James to get her long-deserved recognition, I don't think it's going to happen this year. Jessica Williams is the longest of long shots, but God, a victory for her would be so sweet and so deserved; she is relentlessly hilarious as Gabby, oftentimes Shrinking's driving comedy heartbeat. And if this category weren't sprinkled with enough black girl magic, it would have been better served with even more: SNL's Ego Nwodim has been an underrated star for a few years now, and with the fresh news that she won't be returning to the prestigious show, I'm all the more sad she never got her flowers on this stage.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Drama Series
Zach Cherry, Severance
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
James Marsden, Paradise
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Tramell Tillman, Severance
John Turturro, Severance
Will Win: Tramell Tillman
Could Win: Walton Goggins
Should Win: Tramell Tillman
Snubbed: Patrick Schwarzenegger, The White Lotus
Thoughts?
I'm not gonna spend too much time on this. Zach Cherry and John Turturro are great. The White Lotus trio-- in particular Jason Isaacs, in my opinion-- is great, although I do think young Patrick Schwarzenegger deserved a nod for successfully humanizing a douchebag Duke grad. I haven't seen Paradise yet, but James Marsden is always great. But this award is Trammel Tillman's. It just is. Mr. Milchick has been one of the most engaging, unnerving and entertaining characters in Severance from the start as a result of Tillman's excellent work, and he took on a much bigger, more significant, and FAR more multifaceted role this season. Tramell is a star, and we shouldn't be waiting any longer to realize that.
Tramell Tillman wears many different hats in his brilliant portrayal of Mr. Milchick, including "bandleader." Can he add "Emmy winner" to his already impressive rolodex?
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Drama Series
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Julianne NIcholson, Paradise
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus
Will Win: Carrie Coon
Could Win: Parker Posey
Should Win: Parker Posey
Snubbed: Dichen Lachmann, Severance
Thoughts?
On a night that otherwise seems poised to dole out all its drama awards to one of The Pitt and Severance, this award represents the best opportunity for The White Lotus to get a win from its more divisive third season. Not just because actresses from the show comprise over half the field, though that certainly helps, but because in Carrie Coon and Parker Posey, they boast two beloved veteran actors, in Natasha Rothwell they boast a repeat nominee, and in Aimee Lou Wood, they boast an ingenue who endeared herself to the online masses with her empathetic portrayal of Chelsea. Most believe this is Carrie Coon's to lose, and with good reason: "Laurie's" monologue was one of the emotional highs of the last Lotus season. But I, for one, would love to see Parker Posey's hilarious but nuanced portrayal of the Xanned-out, wealthy North Carolina mom win an award.
Outstanding Actor for a Comedy Series
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will Win: Seth Rogen
Could Win: Martin Short
Should Win: Seth Rogen
Snubbed: Will Forte, The Four Seasons
Thoughts?
From two wide open acting races to a fairly open-shut one. The Studio faces stiff competition throughout the night in the Comedy awards, casting some doubt onto the projections of a Studio clean sweep. That said, this is one in which it would be genuinely stunning if the winner came from anywhere else. The new comedy was an instant hit among viewers and critics alike, and Seth Rogen is its lifeforce. With The Bear S3 having a more muted reception and Ted Lasso and Barry both in the rearview mirror, there's no real chance of a repeat winner asserting hegemony here, and while Jason Segel is liked and Martin Short adored, neither one of their shows commanded nearly as much attention as The Studio did this year.
Seth Rogen's character declares himself "kind of the savior of film," but it's at the television awards where The Studio co-creator is expected to win big.
Outstanding Actress for a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba, The Residence
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Jean Smart, Hacks
Will Win: Jean Smart
Could Win: Kristen Bell
Should Win: Ayo Edebiri
Snubbed: Natasia Demetriou, What We Do In The Shadows
Thoughts?
The only real intrigue in the Best Actress race is whether anyone can unseat three-time reigning winner and beloved vet Jean Smart. Kristen Bell's Nobody Wants This found an adoring young fanbase, and could get thrown a bone. I would love to see the ever-deserving Quinta and Ayo score their 2nd acting Emmys. But smart money is on Smart taking this yet again.
Outstanding Actor for a Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last Of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Will Win: Noah Wyle
Could Win: Adam Scott
Should Win: Adam Scott
Snubbed: Diego Luna, Andor
Thoughts?
Much of the Emmy night drama is going to center around-- well, Drama. Perhaps no single race, apart from the race for Outstanding Series, better sums up the two-horse race between The Pitt and Severance. No shows commanded the mainstream discussion and won the hearts of audiences and critics alike the way those two did, and as such, conventional wisdom is that one or both will win big tonight. But which one? And for which awards? In this race, anybody but the leading men of those respective shows winning would be an enormous shock. During and immediately after the maelstrom of attention Severance's second season commanded, Adam Scott seemed liked a runaway winner for Lead Actor, and it's not hard to see why. He essentially plays two characters, the grieving and cynical Mark Scout, and the cheery, good-humored, doe-eyed romantic Mark S., and plays both oh-so-convincingly. But with the surge of hype and adoration for The Pitt, a large amount of love developed specifically for star Noah Wyle, both for the actor he is and the figure he's been off-camera. I do expect Severance to be the bigger winner on the night, but think this is one award that the Academy will want to give for the first time to the Internet's new dad.
Outstanding Actress for a Drama Series
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Britt Lower, Severance
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Will Win: Kathy Bates
Could Win: Britt Lower
Should Win: Britt Lower
Snubbed: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale
Thoughts?
The only real intrigue in the Best Actress race is whether anyone can unseat adored industry vet Kathy Bates in her quest to take home her first Emmy. If anyone is going to, there's no question who's waiting in the wings: Severance's Britt Lower, who has stolen the hearts and creeped out the minds of millions in equal measure as both Helly R. and Helena Eagan. She would be an immensely deserving (and exciting) winner. But smart money is on Bates getting her recognition at long last.
Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar (FOX)
Beyoncé Bowl (Netflix)
The Oscars (ABC)
SNL50: The Anniversary Special (NBC)
SNL50: The Homecoming Concert (Peacock)
Will Win: SNL50: The Anniversary Special
Could Win: The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar
Should Win: Beyoncé Bowl
Snubbed: 67th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
Thoughts?
I'm a huge Saturday Night Live fan, an avid watcher of the Oscars, and Beyoncé and Kendrick Lamar are quite possibly my two favorite artists. So in other words, this award feels like it was made specifically for me. That said, there's a clear winner here, in my opinion. These recent Oscars actually didn't strike me as altogether memorable, and I would have opted for the Grammys as the superior awards show production this year. SNL50's two anniversary programs were both an impressive production and a great trip down memory lane, but nothing that will live long in the memory. Beyoncé's and Kendrick Lamar's halftime shows were feats of artistry both because of the performances themselves, but also because of the production team top to bottom. I loved Kendrick's show, and the cinematographer in particular deserves a shout-out if that were to take top honors, but there's a reason the "Beyoncé Bowl" was my # 1 television moment in 2024: the transition from pre-recorded to live, the movement of Beyoncé and all her dancers being followed expertly, the sound quality, the lack of buffering or lagging from Netflix....it was masterful. That said, I expect the cultural nostalgic cache of Lorne Michaels and SNL to be enough to give them the win, especially if the show itself loses the "Variety Scripted Series" award to Last Week Tonight, as is projected to happen.
Beyoncé's huge last calendar year has seen her finally capture her evasive Album of the Year Grammy and launch another hugely successful stadium tour...could the televised show that kicked it all off now earn her an Emmy?
Outstanding Talk Series
The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Will Win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Could Win: Jimmy Kimmel Live
Should Win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Snubbed: Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)
Thoughts?
The recent move to classify John Oliver's Last Week Tonight to the Variety Sketch Series category breaks up the almost unparalleled stranglehold Oliver had on this award in particular, opening it up to a new winner. Unfortunately for the other nominees this year, there's zero question where this award is going to tonight: Stephen Colbert is revered in industry circles and has long been a favorite of this voting body anyhow, and that was before the shocking announcement a couple months ago that CBS would be cancelling his show after this season is up. As this may be their last opportunity to do so, the Academy will give a sort of career acheivement Emmy to Colbert and let him have the last laugh. And I have no problem with that, I just do wish voters would stop sleeping on the sneaky-good quality of Seth Meyers' Late Night.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Hacks (HBO Max)
Nobody Wants This (Netflix)
Only Murders In The Building (Hulu)
Shrinking (Apple TV+)
The Studio (Apple TV+)
What We Do In The Shadows (FX)
Will Win: The Studio
Could Win: Hacks
Should Win: Shrinking
Snubbed: The Four Seasons (Netflix)
Thoughts?
I am once again pleading, almost surely to deaf ears, for Shrinking to command some awards recognition. It's fresh, funny, and feel-good in the best way. I'm not getting my hopes up but seeing how much more its 2nd season was nominated than its 1st season was is at least encouraging. Most years of late, the Comedy race has been a foregone conclusion, and that is probably the case again this year. No comedy program generated the level of attention that the debut of The Studio did, and its technical achievements, star power, and industry "insider baseball" make it an extremely attractive choice for voters. That said, just last year, Hacks scored a big upset by winning over the "foregone conclusion" of that race, Season 2 of The Bear, so don't count them out of pulling off the same feat yet again.
Outstanding Drama Series
Andor (Disney+)
The Diplomat (Netflix)
The Last Of Us (HBO Max)
Paradise (Hulu)
The Pitt (HBO Max)
Severance (Apple TV+)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
The White Lotus (HBO Max)
Will Win: Severance
Could Win: The Pitt
Should Win: Severance
Snubbed: Bad Sisters (Apple TV+)
Thoughts?
Outstanding Drama Series is oft-considered the Emmy's grand prize, and that is no different this year. Even though it's probably safe to say the "golden era of television" that so many spoke out breathlessly has been over for several years, the good Drama programs are still myriad. Even though I myself have only seen 3 of the nominated programs, I have heard at least 7 of them at different times be described to me by someone as "the best show on TV right now." An upset by The White Lotus or Andor would certainly delight corners of the Twittersphere, and a shocker by The Last Of Us or Slow Horses would be fairly well-received, I think. But...you've heard me say it throughout this piece. It's going to be one of The Pitt or Severance. It just is. The realistic, empathetic medical drama with a huge heart became a fan favorite in the weeks leading up to the nominations announcement, and might just be able to catch that wave of momentum into the ceremony. But I still believe it will be-- as it should be --the big moment for the brilliant, zeitgeisty Severance, whose first season was somewhat shockingly shut out of these awards two years ago.
The biggest race of the night seems to be a two-horse race between the two buzziest shows of the year. Will the hospital drama The Pitt ride the momentum to a win, or will dystopian thriller/romance Severance finally get its moment?
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