2023 Emmy Predictions
Tonight, the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards take place! We at The Couch will be watching as invested-- and at least somewhat informed --viewers, start to finish.
If you're not weird like me, and thus don't keep tabs on awards shows every year, you may be surprised to hear the Emmys are tonight. And you'd be justified in that confusion! After all, why is the awards show celebrating the best in television from late 2022-early 2023 taking place on a random Monday night in 2024? Well, like many of the programs nominated for these awards, the ceremony itself was affected by the months-long WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, and while originally slated for late Summer as is usually the case with the Emmys, got postponed to January, where it's nestled amidst the fray of the movie and music awards circuit. Oh, and also amongst the NFL Playoffs, which is likely the reason they are taking place tonight and not on a Sunday, per usual. Anyways, it took a while, but we're finally here! Celebrating the best in television from over a year ago!
I'm far from an expert, but as a moderately informed, wholly invested television fan, I have put together our Emmy predictions and added some analysis for you as comprehensively as I can. That said, for those of you that are not aware, there is a TON of television out there. So, though this will mimic similar preview pieces we've done on Grammy and Oscar shows of the past, with "Will Win" and "Should Win" offerings as well, we apologize in advance for any instances of us being out of the loop on a show you may know and love more than we do. Now, enough caveat, let's get these award predictions rolling!
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy
Bill Hader, Barry ("wow")
Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, and Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso ("So Long, Farewell")
John Hoffman, Matteo Borghese, and Rob Turbovsky, Only Murders In The Building ("I Know Who Did It")
Chris Kelly and Sarah Schneider, The Other Two ("Cary & Brooke Go To An AIDS Play")
Mekki Leeper, Jury Duty ("Ineffective Assistance")
Christopher Storer, The Bear ("System")
Will Win: Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, and Jason Sudeikis
Could Win: Christopher Storer
Should Win: Bill Hader
Snubbed: Donald Glover, Atlanta ("It Was All A Dream")
Thoughts?
I'm already bracing myself for the very bad, no-good last season of Ted Lasso to win way more than it should at these Emmys, based off of how much it won last year and how much it is nominated again this time. And in fairness, the season (maybe series?) finale was one of the few highlights and one of the better-written episodes from Season 3. That said, its quality still pales in comparison to the pilot of The Bear and the series finale of Barry, both of which would make more deserving winners here; I am especially partial to Hader's work in his show's phenomenal send-off. And in a crowded year of phenomenal Comedy programs, there were snubs galore across the categories: no Abbott Elementary representation in this award is shocking, and guarantees no repeat victory for reigning winner Quinta Brunson, and the general dearth of Shrinking, Atlanta, Schmigadoon! and The Afterparty on the night is unforgivable. For this particular category, though, I think the most egregious omission was the series finale of Atlanta, a brilliant, hilarious, creative sendoff to a terrific show that had been one of the most original programs we might ever see.
Outstanding Directing for a Drama
Benjamin Caron, Andor ("Rix Road")
Peter Hoar, The Last Of Us ("Long, Long Time")
Mark Mylod, Succession ("Connor's Wedding")
Andrij Parekh, Succession ("America Decides")
Lorene Scafaria, Succession ("Living+")
Dearblha Walsh, Bad Sisters ("The Prick")
Mike White, The White Lotus ("Arrivederci")
Will Win: Mark Mylod
Could Win: Peter Hoar
Should Win: Mark Mylod
Snubbed: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale ("Safe")
Thoughts?
The writing and directing categories for both Comedy and Drama should be exciting, but I highlight this award for one specific reason: to discuss "Connor's Wedding." Throughout Succession's entire run, Mark Mylod was its primary director, and that episode has to be his magnum opus. That I so confidently expect it to win this and Outstanding Writing is not a commentary on its competitors; the other nominated Succession episodes were also terrific, and "Long, Long Time" was probably 2023's buzziest episode of any TV show not named Succession or The Bear. It has everything to do with the fact that Mylod's work yielded one of the best standalone episodes of television I have ever seen, and maybe THE best non-finale episode ever. If it doesn't win every award it's ever come up for, something's gone horribly wrong.
One of many powerful and evocative shots from an unforgettable episode full of them.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Phil Dunster, Ted Lasso
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Will Win: James Marsden
Could Win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Should Win: Phil Dunster
Snubbed: Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Thoughts?
This has the feel of a wiiiide open race, and with the exception of two-time reigning champion Brett Goldstein, I'd be happy with just about any winner. Goldstein's Roy Kent is adored, but he did nothing this last season that warrants a third consecutive Emmy. His castmate Phil Dunster, though, has long been overdue for recognition for his hilarious but nuanced portrayal of Jamie Tartt, and should he win, he would represent the only Ted Lasso victory on the night I'd be happy with. Majority-- if not consensus --opinion, however, seems to hold that this winner will likely come from The Bear or Jury Duty. Don't cite my research, but I have found that oftentimes a wide open field presents the voters an opportunity to branch out from one of the dominant shows on the night. Going by this logic, I would think that would spell trouble for Ebon Moss-Bachrach's Cousin Richie, as The Bear seems to be poised for a big night. I think voters would love to give something to the underdog success Jury Duty, and James Marsden is an underrated actor who by all accounts would be a deserving winner. I'm mostly just sad an already-loaded category wasn't made stronger with the inclusion of Harrison Ford, who was marvelous, hilarious, and heartwarming in Shrinking
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Will Win: Ayo Edebiri
Could Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph
Should Win: Jessica Williams
Snubbed: Sarah Sherman, Saturday Night Live
Thoughts?
Another loaded category, and another open race! Much as I loved them in the first two seasons, though, Hannah Waddingham and Juno Temple shouldn't be here, largely through no fault of their own-- their characters were so atrociously written and insignificant to the plot in Season 3 of Ted Lasso. A more exciting inclusion would have been someone like SNL's Sarah Sherman, who is a star in the making and has brought an element and brand of comedy that I'm not sure the 50-year old legacy program has ever seen. Any other winner here would be thrilling though; reigning winner Sheryl Lee Ralph and her castmate Janelle James were both impossibly funny again and would give Abbott Elementary a deserving win. Jessica Williams is so delightful in Shrinking, and I'm just so happy to see her included among the nominees that I would love nothing more than for her to pull of a surprise win. But I think it will be rising star Ayo Edebiri, who has blown up in the last year, and deservedly so, launched by her phenomenal breakout turn in the inaugural season of The Bear.
Just a week removed from her Golden Globes win for The Bear Season 2, can people's princess Ayo Edebiri repeat the feat for The Bear Season 1 at the Emmys?
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Drama Series
F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus
Nicholas Braun, Succession
Michael Imperioli, The White Lotus
Theo James, The White Lotus
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Alan Ruck, Succession
Will Sharpe, The White Lotus
Alexander Skarsgård, Succession
Will Win: Matthew Macfadyen
Could Win: Alexander Skarsgård
Should Win: Alan Ruck
Snubbed: Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
Thoughts?
One of the many tweets that made me laugh in the wake of the nominations announcement was one asking if the Academy was aware of any other Drama series' this year...it's true that The White Lotus represents the clearest challenger to Succession's 'ensemble cast' dominance that the latter has had during its run. That said, bias acknowledged, I would still be pretty shocked if a Succession man doesn't come away with the win here. All signs point to a second straight victory for Tom Wambsgans himself, the brilliant Matthew Macfadyen, and you certainly can't argue it wouldn't be deserved. But I myself will be quietly rooting for Alan Ruck, whose eldest boy Connor Roy finally got a little more development and significant play in this last season.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Drama Series
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Meghann Fahy, The White Lotus
Sabrina Impacciatore, The White Lotus
Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Simona Tabasco, The White Lotus
Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge
Could Win: Elizabeth Debicki
Should Win: Aubrey Plaza
Snubbed: Lesley Manville, The Crown
Thoughts?
The patriarchal boardroom in Succession means the actress categories have typically been its Achilles heel at the Emmys, and that will likely remain the case this year, although J. Smith-Cameron's terrific portrayal of Gerri Kellman would be a delightful and deserved win. Rhea Seehorn's performance in Better Call Saul is one of the great underrated jobs, and has never won her an Emmy, so the Academy may see this is their golden opportunity to give Seehorn her due. But, chances are the winner in this field will be one of the various White Lotus star turns, and odds are the trophy will go to fan favorite Jennifer Coolidge, who won for this role last year when Lotus was considered a Limited Series.
Outstanding Actor for a Comedy Series
Bill Hader, Barry
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will Win: Jeremy Allen White
Could Win: Jason Sudeikis
Should Win: Jeremy Allen White
Snubbed: Donald Glover, Atlanta
Thoughts?
I will throw something through my TV if Sudeikis wins this a 3rd straight time, but fortunately this is one award that I feel very confident The Bear will take home. Jeremy Allen White has swept through awards circuits for each of the first two seasons he's played the titular Carmen "Bear" Berzatto, and with good reason: he's nothing short of brilliant as the snarky, obsessive, big-hearted and wildly talented chef. Few of the other nominees come close to the performance level of acting honestly, although Hader, Segel and Short were all delightful. You know who did come close to that level of acting from this Emmys cycle? Donald Glover, in his final season of the brilliant Atlanta. WHERE IS ATLANTA AT THESE EMMYS.
Outstanding Actress for a Comedy Series
Christina Applegate, Dead To Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Will Win: Christina Applegate
Could Win: Quinta Brunson
Should Win: Natasha Lyonne
Snubbed: Cecily Strong, Schmigadoon!
Thoughts?
It's always fun when an acting category is wide, and I mean WIDE open, and it's even more fun when it's a lead acting category! Such is the case with this race this year, with no clear favorite present. (Case in point: when I checked in on GoldDerby's picks this weeks, every single nominee was predicted to win by at least one of the 15 or so 'experts.') The betting favorite is Quinta Brunson, and it's obvious why: not only would she deserve the Emmy-- her first ever --she's the face of one of the most popular programs on network television. But it's far from a given, as voters could opt for the buzzy performance from a 'star of the future' in Jenna Ortega, the last chance to award two-time winner Rachel Brosnahan for her titular Mrs. Maisel, or for the singular Natasha Lyonne, who expertly helmed the wildly entertaining Poker Face amidst what many people are calling 'The Lyonneissance.' The direction I suspect they might go, though, is in favor of Christina Applegate, who has a large amount of stored-up respect and goodwill in her career, and whose 1st Emmy win would feel especially poignant and meaningful amidst her ongoing battle with multiple sclerosis.
Outstanding Actor for a Drama Series
Jeff Bridges, Old Man
Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Pedro Pascal, The Last Of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Could Win: Pedro Pascal
Should Win: Jeremy Strong
Snubbed: Matt Smith, House of the Dragon
Thoughts?
Between the buzz and acclaim The Last of Us' debut season garnered, and the ongoing love affair the public has with Pedro Pascal, the star could be primed for an Emmys upset. But it still would be a surprise if an actor from a program other than Succession wins, and based on recent awards circuit results, that actor seems most likely to be Mr. Roman Roy himself, Kieran Culkin Brian Cox being in this category is hilarious; based off of sheer levels of acting alone, he not only deserves to be nominated, but deserves to win, as he should have at least once before this year. But he was in 3 eipsodes this season!! I think based solely on performance, plus significance to the story, 2020 winner Jeremy Strong deserves to win once more. But I love new winners, and loved Culkin throughout Succession, so I will be very happy if he is indeed to take top honors.
Just like his character Roman Roy, Kieran Culkin's brilliant performances were so frequently overshadowed by his TV siblings and father...is it finally his time to shine?
Outstanding Actress for a Drama Series
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Will Win: Sarah Snook
Could Win: Bella Ramsey
Should Win: Sarah Snook
Snubbed: Emma D'Arcy, House of the Dragon
Thoughts?
If at first you don't succeed...go bigger? That seems to be the likely recipe for Sarah Snook. The Australian actress was phenomenal from start to finish as Siobhan Roy in Succession, but in each of the first three seasons, went winless on the awards circuit fighting in the Supporting Actress category. In Season 4, she took on more of a lead role, and this time around has campaigned for Lead Actress, and what do you know? She's nearly undefeated on the awards circuit of late. Like their Last of Us castmate, there's a chance Bella Ramsay could spoil the Succession party, based off the adoration for their character and the dynamic with Pascal. But I feel like it's Sarah's time, and it could not have come too soon; she has been note-perfect as Shiv from the start, but the layers to her performance in Season 4 were unrivaled.
Outstanding Variety Scripted Series
A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)
Last Week Tonight (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Will Win: Last Week Tonight
Could Win: Saturday Night Live
Should Win: A Black Lady Sketch Show
Snubbed: I Think You Should Leave (Netflix)
Thoughts?
After 7 straight victories for the Emmy for Outstanding Talk Series, the Academy took pity on other talk-show hosts and moved John Oliver's Last Week Tonight to the Outstanding Variety Scripted Series category. This move also sets up a bit of a clash of the titans, as Oliver's program now meets Saturday Night Live, which has had a chokehold on this category since its inception. So who wins?? Almost surely Last Week Tonight again, and between those two, that's how it should be, at least for this last season. But what would be more fun is if the Academy showed a little originality and instead gave it to the underrated Black Lady Sketch Show. And what would be the MOST fun is if they didn't relegate Tim Robinson's I Think You Should Leave to the Creative Arts Emmys, and instead let it win here, in the Primetime Emmys, like it deserves.
Outstanding Variety Special (Live)
The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show Starring Rihanna (FOX)
Chris Rock: Selective Outrage (Netflix)
Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium (Disney+)
The Oscars (ABC)
75th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
Will Win: Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium
Could Win: 75th Annual Tony Awards
Should Win: The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show Starring Rihanna
Snubbed: 65th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS)
Thoughts?
This category, or previous iterations of it, always makes me laugh. What other awards show would pit Elton John, Chris Rock, Rihanna, the Oscars telecast and the Tonys telecast against each other for the same award? It's insane. It's not uncommon for non-Emmy award shows to triumph at this one, given the impressive amount of coordination required for the night to run relatively smoothly, and it very well might pan out that way again: the Tonys were very well-received last year, and might prove to take top honors here. (That said, I'm confused why the other awards show nominee was the 2023 Oscars, which were fine but fairy forgettable, and not the 2023 Grammys, which despite my own complaints over the quality of the winners on the night, was the more impressive spectacle.) But I have a feeling the combination of the spectacle and emotional significance of Elton John's last grand live performance might sway the voting base to opt for something different this time. If it's going to go to one of the musical nominees, my hope would be that it's for the team involved in RiRi's electric halftime show performance, which I recently rated as one of my personal top TV moments of 2023.
A pregnant Rihanna captivated TV audiences with her terrific halftime show performance. Was the special good enough to win hardware of its own?
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Beef (Netflix)
Dahmer -- Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Daisy Jones & the Six (Hulu)
Fleishman Is In Trouble (FX)
Obi-Wan Kenobi (Disney+)
Will Win: Beef
Could Win: Fleishman Is In Trouble
Should Win: Beef
Snubbed: Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu)
Thoughts?
Miniseries' and TV movies are more "in" than they've ever been, and as such, increasingly in recent years this category has been one of the hotter races on the night. For my money, no clearer was this the case than in 2021, which held several of the best SHOWS, period, of the calendar year vying for the same prize. That said, this year the category feels like the most obvious one-horse race in a while, a return to the trend of the last decade, where one particularly buzzy nomineee cleaned up just about all the Limited Series awards. In this case, that show is the lauded Asian-American, road-rage-centered, dark comedy Beef. The critical acclaim for and name recognition within Fleishman Is In Trouble could lead it to play spoiler, but given the results of the awards circuit of late, even that would feel like a major upset.
Outstanding Drama Series
Andor (Disney+)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
The Crown (Netflix)
House of the Dragon (HBO)
The Last of Us (HBO)
Succession (HBO)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Will Win: Succession
Could Win: The Last of Us
Should Win: Succession
Snubbed: The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
Thoughts?
The race for Outstanding Drama is typically pretty... well, dramatic. But this year, the award that could make a claim to be the king of all Emmys has the feel of an inevitable coronation, with only a couple programs capable of potentially playing spoiler. The Last of Us and The White Lotus were two of the buzziest shows of late 2022/early 2023, plus both are very well-represented in the acting and writing award fields. About a year ago, House of the Dragon pulled off a major upset in winning Best Drama Series at the Golden Globes, over a number of the names listed above. So, can you count any of those out as contenders, beyond the shadow of a doubt? No. But let's be honest: are any of them going to topple the pride and joy of their home network? Almost surely not. The final season of Succession has been roaring through awards season, and is the runaway favorite in most Drama categories tonight; it shouldn't be expected to be any different for the top Drama honor. Nor should there be too much griping should their victory come to pass: in its 4 seasons, Succession brought various twists and turns, but it saved its biggest twist yet for its final season, and I could not conceive of a better, more realistic, more thought-out end to the story we were introduced to five years ago.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO)
The Bear (FX)
Jury Duty (Amazon)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Only Murders In The Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Wednesday (Netflix)
Will Win: Ted Lasso
Could Win: The Bear
Should Win: The Bear
Snubbed: Shrinking (Apple TV+)
Thoughts?
Outstanding Comedy Series is not necessarily oft-considered the Emmy's grand prize, but this last year was an extremely grand year for Comedy, and that brings a ridiculously loaded field of contenders. As such, don't be surprised if this is saved for the last award of the night, and if "Comedy" in general takes center stage tonight.
The problem with this being an absurdly good year for Comedy programs means that some of the most painful snubs from the Emmy announcement came for this very award. I know not every last good show can book a ticket to the main event, but spare a thought for the likes of Shrinking, Atlanta and Poker Face, whose exclusion from this category is unforgivable. Hell, spare a thought even for charming, silly little shows like The Afterparty or Schmigadoon!, either of which would have been more exciting finalists than some of the ones that made the cut.
The other problem with this being an absurdly good year for Comedy programs is that there is a decent chance the voters will get this one horribly wrong. It's already a shame that not all of Abbott Elementary, Barry, Jury Duty and The Bear can win, and in less-loaded years, you get the sense each would be a frontrunner. The pain could be compounded, though, if what I fear might happen does indeed play out, and the Academy opts for Ted Lasso's final season over the inaugural season of betting favorite The Bear. You would think this exact scenario would be a longshot given how, let's not mince words, BAD the last season of Ted Lasso was, a sentiment shared by critics and fans alike. Yet, one need only to look at the Emmys success of Game of Thrones' divisive last couple seasons to know this is not necessarily a deterrent for Academy voters. With Season 3 likely being the farwell to Ted Lasso, how much the program has won in its first two seasons, and how well-represented it is among the nominees tonight... it's not hard to see AFC Richmond's path to glory.
It's not often that the Comedy awards are the most anticipated of the night, but in a loaded field, this might be the show's most coveted win of all. Which one of the beloved series pictured above will take top honors? Or is the answer... none of them?
Comments