2022 Emmy Predictions
Tonight, the 74th Primetime Emmy Awards take place! We at The Couch will be watching as invested-- and at least somewhat informed --viewers, start to finish.
For the first time in many years, it will be an Emmy ceremony that feels "familiar." The COVID-19 pandemic unsurprisingly threw a spanner in the works of the last two awards shows. In fall of 2020, Jimmy Kimmel hosted an almost-entirely virtual ceremony from an empty Staples Center. Last year, like the Grammys and Oscars before it, the Emmys occupied a sort of in-between space, with an audience present, but one reduced in number, and in a combination indoor-outdoor venue, a psuedo-tent at the Event Deck at L.A. Live. This year, the awards are back in the friendly confines of the Microsoft Theater for the first time since 2019, and unlike that 2019 show, will have one host emceeing the whole night, Saturday Night Live's veteran and fulcrum, Kenan Thompson.
I've enlisted Daniel Baas, fellow pop culture guru, to put together our Emmy predictions and I've added some analysis for you as comprehensively as I can. That said, for those of you that are not aware, there is a TON of television out there. So, though this will mimic similar preview pieces we've done on Grammy and Oscar shows of the past, with "Will Win" and "Should Win" offerings as well, we apologize in advance for any instances of us being out of the loop on a show you may know and love more than we do. Now, enough caveat, let's get these award predictions rolling!
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy
Lucia Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, Hacks ("The One, the Only")
Jane Becker, Ted Lasso ("No Weddings And A Funeral")
Alec Berg and Bill Hader, Barry ("starting now")
Duffy Boudreau, Barry ("710N")
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary ("Pilot")
John Hoffman and Steve Martin, Only Murders In The Building ("True Crime")
Sarah Naftalis, What We Do In The Shadows ("The Casino")
Stefani Robinson, What We Do In The Shadows ("The Wellness Center")
Will Win:
Baas: Jane Becker
Woodiwiss: Quinta Brunson
Could Win:
Baas: Alec Berg and Bill Hader
Woodiwiss: Lucia Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky
Should Win:
Baas: Sarah Naftalis
Woodiwiss: Alec Berg and Bill Hader
Thoughts?
Right off the bat, we've got no Couch consensus here, going with different choices for both winner and top competition. I've got a bad feeling this isn't going to prove to be as big a night for Abbott Elementary as the hype and number of nominations might indicate, and Writing might be the one bone they throw Brunson for her show, a la last year with Michaela Coel and I May Destroy You. I'll be happy for Quinta's win if it happens, for a smart, endearing and engaging pilot, but truthfully, my own conflicted feelings about Barry Season 3 aside, that finale episode was some of the most enthralling writing for a 'comedy' I've seen in some time. If a different Ted Lasso episode was nominated ("Man City," for example), I'd consider it a stronger contender, but I don't actually think "Two Weddings and a Funeral" was nearly its best writing.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama
Jesse Armstrong, Succession ("All The Bells Say")
Hwang Dong-hyuk, Squid Game ("One Lucky Day")
Dan Erickson, Severance ("The We We Are")
Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson, Yellowjackets ("F Sharp")
Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson, Yellowjackets ("Pilot")
Chris Mundy, Ozark ("A Hard Way To Go")
Thomas Schnauz, Better Call Saul ("Plan and Execution")
Will Win:
Baas: Jesse Armstrong
Woodiwiss: Jesse Armstrong
Could Win:
Baas: Thomas Schnauz
Woodiwiss: Dan Erickson
Should Win:
Baas: Jesse Armstrong
Woodiwiss: Jesse Armstrong
Thoughts?
If both Daniels are correct in our predictions, Writing will represent Succession's first award of the night and in a highly competitive Drama field, it might be their most surefire bet for a win on the night. There are still some heavy hitters in this category, as is the case with all Drama categories; e.g. I am very tempted to pick the pulsating season finale for Severance as both my Will and Should win. But Armstrong's Season 3 finale was yet another masterclass in screenplay, reminding all viewers why Succession is the bar for contemporary drama programs.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Toheeb Jimoh, Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Will Win:
Daniel Baas: Brett Goldstein
Daniel Woodiwiss: Brett Goldstein
Could Win:
Baas: Henry Winkler
Woodiwiss: Henry Winkler
Should Win:
Baas: Brett Goldstein
Woodiwiss: Anthony Carrigan
Thoughts?
Reigning winner Brett Goldstein appears to be the odds-on favorite to repeat, though for the second straight year faces stiff competition from his own show; Toheeb Jimoh's star turn as Sam and Nick Mohammed's villain arc as Nate were two of the most talked-about moments from Ted Lasso's second season. Spare a thought, though, for Phil Dunster, who was nothing short of tremendous as the enigmatic Jamie Tartt in the latest Lasso season, yet was inexplicably left off the list of nominees.
If Goldstein is going to repeat, he'll have to not only stand out above his on-screen peers, he will have to beat out two previous winners in Henry Winkler and Tony Shalhoub, who both won their awards in these same roles they are nominated for. The Emmys have proven to have a 'repeat bias' in recent years, so the smart money is on Richmond's Roy Kent to win again, but were it up to me, my vote would go to the horribly underrated Anthony Carrigan. NoHo Hank's character, as did Henry Winkler's Gene Cousineau, added another layer of emotional depth this season, and unlike Gene, Carrigan still provided his usual moments of comedy and levity.
Just as Sam Obisanya has taken Roy Kent's place as the emotional leader of AFC Richmond, might Toheeb Jimoh supplant Goldstein as the Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy?
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Hannah Einbender, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Will Win:
Baas: Hannah Waddingham
Woodiwiss: Hannah Waddingham
Could Win:
Baas: Janelle James
Woodiwiss: Hannah Einbender
Should Win:
Baas: Hannah Einbender
Woodiwiss: Janelle James
Thoughts?
Like Ted Lasso castmate Brett Goldstein, Hannah Waddingham appears to be the overwhelming favorite to repeat. I feel the same way about the prospect of the two of them winning, as I do about Ted Lasso's 2nd season in these awards in general: I still loved her, loved him, loved it, but I don't feel there is a need for her to win again this year, with so many other quality nominees to choose from.
Personally I would be most thrilled for either Abbott woman to take home the trophy, though it's James in particular, as the hapless and oblivious principal Ava Coleman, who has made me laugh harder than just about any acting nominee this year. I also would be quite happy for Juno Temple, since I think she's low-key been the lifeblood of the show's comedy and heart and is yet to win any major award for her role.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Drama Series
Nicholas Braun, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
O Yeong-su, Squid Game
Park Hae-su, Squid Game
John Turturro, Severance
Christopher Walken, Severance
Will Win:
Baas: Kieran Culkin
Woodiwiss: Kieran Culkin
Could Win:
Baas: Matthew Macfadyen
Woodiwiss: Matthew Macfadyen
Should Win:
Baas: Matthew Macfadyen
Woodiwiss: Matthew Macfadyen
Thoughts?
The good news is it seems a long-overdue acting Emmy will go to one of Succession's most delightful cast cast members. The bad news is, it seems likely to go to the wrong one, inasmuch as there is a "wrong: winner from that cast.
Kieran Culkin is consistently fantastic, and hilarious as the petulant Roman Roy, so I will have no real complaints if he is to finally get his win tonight. But this season of Succession was all about Tom Wambsgans, and the masterful depths of sadness Macfadyen plunged to in his portrayal of the oft-overlooked, oft-cuckolded husband to Shiv Roy. Tom's depression-come-redemption arc was almost identical to that of Kendall Roy in Season 2, which saw Jeremy Strong win Best Actor. I hope the Academy go the same route this time.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Drama Series
Patricia Arquette, Severance
Julia Garner, Ozark
HoYeon Jung, Squid Game
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Sarah Snook, Succession
Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria
Will Win:
Baas: Rhea Seehorn
Woodiwiss: HoYeon Jung
Could Win:
Baas: Julia Garner
Woodiwiss: Sarah Snook
Should Win:
Baas: Rhea Seehorn
Woodiwiss: HoYeon Jung
Thoughts?
Drama in the picks! Might this be the most open race of the night? The two Daniels have completely different picks for who will win the Emmy, and both believe strongly that those actresses should win, and neither are the betting favorites, which are two-time winner Garner and three-time nominee Snook. I absolutely love Sarah Snook in Succession (as well as Smith-Cameron, who was a delightful surprise nominee) and she is long overdue for an Emmy, so I will not complain in the least if she takes one home at long last tonight. But HoYeon Jung's performance stood out to me more than any others from Squid Game; the model-turned-actress was the personification of that show's grit and the lifeblood of its human element, and I think the Academy knows a victory for her would set the Internet alight much like Zendaya's win in 2020 did.
Outstanding Actor for a Comedy Series
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Steve Martin, Only Murders In The Building
Martin Short, Only Murders In The Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Will Win:
Baas: Bill Hader
Woodiwiss: Steve Martin
Could Win:
Baas: Jason Sudeikis
Woodiwiss: Jason Sudeikis
Should Win:
Baas: Bill Hader
Woodiwiss: Bill Hader
Thoughts?
This loaded category features four of the last five winners of this award. Bill Hader took home this award for Seasons 1 and 2 of Barry, and has become the odds-on favorite to win for Season 3 as well. But he'll have to beat out reigning winner Sudeikis, who turned in another layered performance as the titular Ted Lasso, as well as 2017 winner Donald Glover, who represents Atlanta's only nomination on the night.
There's also the small matter of Steve Martin and Martin Short, two of the biggest names in all of comedy. I go back and forth on whether Only Murders In The Building will strike out or have a shockingly big night. Given its star-powered cast and mass appeal, I'm leaning towards the latter, and this category seems the most primed of all for an OMITB upset. Nicholas Hoult is likely an afterthought in this race, Sudeikis and Glover were great but were far less the focus of the latest seasons of their show, and Hader was once again absolutely top-notch as the titular Barry, but this season met much less buzz than its previous two. The obvious aspect working against Steve Martin and Martin Short's odds is that both are in this field, and vote-splitting might be a real factor, but while both are widely beloved, I do think Steve Martin is more singularly considered the godfather of comedy, and by extension, the "star" of this show.
Legends, long-time friends and co-collaborators, and current castmates Steve Martin and Martin Short very well may go toe-to-toe for the Comedy Actor Emmy.
Outstanding Actress for a Comedy Series
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Elle Fanning, The Great
Issa Rae, Insecure
Jean Smart, Hacks
Will Win:
Baas: Jean Smart
Woodiwiss: Jean Smart
Could Win:
Baas: Quinta Brunson
Woodiwiss: Quinta Brunson
Should Win:
Baas: Jean Smart
Woodiwiss: Issa Rae
Thoughts?
I'll be honest, Abbott Elementary is the only one of the nominated shows I have watched (I've begun Hacks and Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but am not caught up), so naturally I'm inclined to cheer for star Quinta Brunson to win this one as well. But as referenced above, I expect she'll be relegated to writing awards only. If that proves to be true, I will be happy for the favored Jean Smart should she repeat as winner, but I'd really like to see a win for Issa Rae in recognition of her final season on the monumental Insecure.
Outstanding Actor for a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Brian Cox, Succession
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Will Win:
Baas: Lee Jung-jae
Woodiwiss: Lee Jung-jae
Could Win:
Baas: Brian Cox
Woodiwiss: Brian Cox
Should Win:
Baas: Jeremy Strong
Woodiwiss: Brian Cox
Thoughts?
Where a monumental win for HoYeon Jung would be an upset, her Squid Game co-star Lee Jung-jae has actually become the odds-on favorite in some circles. Squid Game was such a phenomenon that it completely striking out seems unlikely, and I think it's entirely possible the Academy recognizes Lee and only Lee as the stand-in for Squid Game recognition.
However, if they go another route, there are no shortage of heavy-hitting options. Jason Bateman and Bob Odenkirk both turned in expert performances in their shows' final seasons, Adam Scott expertly helmed the unnerving brilliance of Severance, and Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong were once again tours de force as the dueling heads of the Roy family in Succession. Objectively, the acting performances from those two again impressed me more than any other I watched in the last year. Strong was amazing again, but it's wild to me that Brian Cox hasn't won for this show yet. It's time for Papa Roy to win his Emmy. Much like the vast amounts of wealth his character enjoys, he's earned it.
Will Jeremy Strong's Kendall Roy once again be the "#1 boy," or was Brian Cox's Logan going "full fucking beast" enough to deliver him the Emmy?
Outstanding Actress for a Drama Series
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
Zendaya, Euphoria
Will Win:
Baas: Zendaya
Woodiwiss: Zendaya
Could Win:
Baas: Melanie Lynskey
Woodiwiss: Laura Linney
Should Win:
Baas: Melanie Lynskey
Woodiwiss: Laura Linney
Thoughts?
Another #honestyhour moment from me, and it's even worse than my comment re: the Comedy Actress race... I have seen none of these shows. I can only assure you it's not out of any 'leading-lady' aversion! I want and intend to watch all of these shows, I just haven't made my way down the list yet!! I promiiiiiise!!!!
Anyways- I love Zendaya, and she is *the moment*, but I remain skeptical of how good of a show the extravagant Euphoria can actually be, and I don't know if she needs two awards for this show with so many brilliant years surely ahead in her career. Though I genuinely like all and would be happy for any winners, I will feel a particular level of excitement if Laura Linney wins, given that this was Ozark's final season, and she has gone winless in this category throughout its entire run.
Outstanding Actor for a Limited or Anthology Series
Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Under The Banner Of Heaven
Oscar Isaac, Scenes From A Marriage
Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Himesh Patel, Station Eleven
Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy
Will Win:
Baas: Michael Keaton
Woodiwiss: Michael Keaton
Could Win:
Baas: Andrew Garfield
Woodiwiss: Andrew Garfield
Should Win:
Baas: Himesh Patel
Woodiwiss: Michael Keaton
Thoughts?
What an absolutely star-studded field. Limited Series categories don't typically tend to dominate the night, but you'd be hard-pressed to find another Emmy category, from this year or years past, that is so full of household names and up-and-coming stars alike.
Don't let the big names fool you, though; where the natural inclination might be to believe that indicates a photo-finish-close race, the truth is it would be a surprise if anyone but Michael Keaton were to win. And with good reason: as the benevolent doctor-turned-addict-turned rehab counselor Samuel Pennix, he's both the most dynamic character and most engaging aspect of the grim Dopesick.
Outstanding Actress for a Limited or Anthology Series
Toni Collette, The Staircase
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam & Tommy
Sarah Paulson, American Crime Story: Impeachment
Margaret Qualley, Maid
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout
Will Win:
Baas: Amanda Seyfried
Woodiwiss: Amanda Seyfried
Could Win:
Baas: Lily James
Woodiwiss: Margaret Qualley
Should Win:
Baas: Amanda Seyfried
Woodiwiss: Amanda Seyfried
Thoughts?
By all accounts, this award is Amanda Seyfried's to lose, but don't count out the accent-bending star turns from fellow young stars James, Garner or Qualley. And really, as long as Sarah Paulson doesn't win simply for donning a fat suit, I think we'll all be okay.
But seriously, even though I found the series as a whole more forgettable than it should have been, there's no question Seyfried is THE reason The Dropout succeeds. Elizabeth Holmes' unmistakable, almost cartoonish deep voice and personality quirks make her a very difficult public figure to play well, but Amanda had her down to a T. That's not to say the other nominees didn't turn in award-worthy performances, but I just didn't see the same level of hype surrounding their portrayals, and it's not hard to see why.
It was a year for celebrated actresses turning in acclaimed performances as notorious real-life women. Will Elizabeth Holmes (Seyfried) rise above Linda Tripp (Paulson) and Pamela Anderson (James)?
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Dopesick (Hulu)
The Dropout (Hulu)
Inventing Anna (Netflix)
Pam & Tommy (Hulu)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Will Win:
Baas: The White Lotus
Woodiwiss: Dopesick
Could Win:
Baas: Dopesick
Woodiwiss: The White Lotus
Should Win:
Baas: The White Lotus
Woodiwiss: Dopesick
Thoughts?
This really could be the most wide-open Limited Series/Anthology race in some time. Last year's field was loaded, but it became pretty clear by awards time that Queen's Gambit would be the winner, and in past years, Watchmen, Chernobyl, and Big Little Lies were slam-dunk winners. (And speaking of, I was quite surprised by the lack of nomination for two-time winners American Crime Story. I found their latest series Impeachment remarkably well acted, and compelling from start to finish.)
This year, the nominees either weren't overly buzzy (Dopesick, The Dropout) or overwhelmingly critically acclaimed (Pam & Tommy, Inventing Anna). The White Lotus has gained momentum, and it might be the only nominee to balance that commercial and critical appeal successfully. But I still think the edge may be with the more reserved, brilliantly devastating Dopesick, whose win would almost feel thematically similar to Chernobyl's victory in 2019.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Barry (HBO)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Hacks (HBO)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon Prime)
Only Murders In The Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
What We Do In The Shadows (FX)
Will Win:
Baas: Ted Lasso
Woodiwiss: Ted Lasso
Could Win:
Baas: Barry
Woodiwiss: Only Murders In The Building
Should Win:
Baas: What We Do In The Shadows
Woodiwiss: Abbott Elementary
Thoughts?
For the second straight year, Ted Lasso appears to be the program to beat for Comedy glory, and I am more than okay with that. However, unlike in 2021, it is far less of a foregone conclusion, and I also am more than okay with that. Where Season 1 of Ted Lasso was inch-perfect and came up against a hilariously weak field of candidates, its still-great-but-somewhat-bumpy Season 2 meets some really solid fellow nominees.
As discussed above, I remain scared about Only Murders In The Building winning everything; I enjoy the show, but find it milquetoast in quality compared to its peers. But there's no denying the power of its popularity, and its big-name stars. Hacks may be the cynics' choice as an antidote to the more saccharine Ted Lasso (though I should mention I made this same argument last year, and it mattered little). Barry, despite being lauded for its brilliance, has actually only won this award once, and might be eyeing a return to the podium.
But, and this probably won't surprise you, if I had a pick, it'd be Abbott for me. More so than any other nominee I've watched, it's a comedy. That's right, to channel my inner Harry Styles, my favorite part of this comedy is that it's like, a comedy. A real sit on your couch and laugh, and smile, and have a good time, comedy.
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Euphoria (HBO)
Ozark (Netflix)
Severance (Apple TV+)
Squid Game (Netflix)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Succession (HBO)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Will Win:
Baas: Succession
Woodiwiss: Squid Game
Could Win:
Baas: Squid Game
Woodiwiss: Succession
Should Win:
Baas: Better Call Saul
Woodiwiss: Severance
Thoughts?
Anybody who thought television's "golden age" ended a few years ago with the conclusions of Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and The Americans need only to glance at the nominees for Outstanding Drama Series to know that such a proclamation is premature.
This field is absolutely stacked: in it, we have three of the buzziest shows of the last year in Euphoria, Squid Game, and Stranger Things, a return of the critical favorite Succession, the final seasons (and last chances to win) for the acclaimed Better Call Saul and Ozark, and unanimously praised debuts for Severance and Yellowjackets. So, no surprise, I'm having a hard time figuring out who will win. Smart money has been on Succession, but at the risk of making a lazy comparison, I can't help but feel like Squid Game might have its own Parasite moment. It smashed viewership and streaming records, its fatalist future, anti-capitalist message feels timely, and you can imagine the Academy's eyes lighting up at the opportunity to give out a groundbreaking award to a foreign language program for the first time ever.
But I'll admit, I'm having an even harder time figuring out who I want to win. I've seen only half of the nominees, but all I've seen are phenomenal and would be worthy of this award. Gun to my head, I do think Succession was still the objective best, but not by so wide a margin that I think it needs to win in a phenomenal, abundantly creative year for TV. I never saw Better Call Saul or Ozark, but have heard only universal acclaim for them, and remembering how The Americans tragically had the same fate, I would feel sad for both programs to end with no major Emmy wins. I thought the first seasons of Squid Game and Severance remarkable, provoking necessary questions about society while being enthralling (if not terrifying) from start to finish. And it's shocking to me that Stranger Things, one of the biggest cultural zeitgeists in recent years, has never won a Primetime Emmy. It also just enjoyed possibly its strongest season yet...just saying. I *think*, at least at the time of this writing, that my #1 choice would be Severance by the slimmest of margins, but in reality, this is a category where I would find it very hard to get mad about any winner.
Can Korean program Squid Game provide a memorable, stunning Emmys win the way Korean film Parasite did at the 2020 Oscars? Don't count it out.
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