2021 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, "music's biggest night" returns in the form of the 63rd Grammys Ceremony! There's no question tonight's Grammys will look unlike any other before. As we've gotten used to in the era of COVID-19, this awards show will feature a blend of live and pre-recorded, of in-person and at-home. Instead of a packed house at the familiar confines of the Staples Center, the nominees and performers who attend will be each other's sole audience, spread out across the Los Angeles Convention Center. And, for the first time that I can remember, the night's host won't be someone with a musical background, as comedian Trevor Noah takes over from Alicia Keys after the latter's two-year stint.
Though the awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music (criticisms I find valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards out there. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year. If you want to read a full overview of the nominees specifically, I basically already did that, so read that here!
In addition, if you’re curious about all the nominees, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give all the awards to Bruno Mars. Sometimes they give them to Kacey Musgraves. Sometimes they give them to Beck. Other times they give them to Billie Eilish. The only thing that seems to be consistent is that they don't give out big awards to black artists, but at the risk of sounding overly optimistic, maybe this year, after a 2020 filled with mass protests of racial injustice, is finally the year that changes. In short: I have some idea, but really no idea, who and what will win. All I can do is try! Here goes:
GENRE
Best Music Video
“Adore You" - Harry Styles (Dave Meyers, director)
“Brown Skin Girl” - Beyoncé, Saint Jhn & Wizkid featuring Blue Ivy Carter (Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Jenn Nkiru, co-directors)
“Goliath" - Woodkid (Yoanne Lemoine, director)
“Life Is Good” - Future featuring Drake (Julien Christian Lutz, director)
“Lockdown” - Anderson.Paak (Dave Meyers, director)
Will Win: “Brown Skin Girl”
Could Win: “Lockdown"
Should Win: “Brown Skin Girl”
Anything BUT: “Life Is Good”
Snubbed: "Bop" - DaBaby (Reel Goats, directors)
It's tempting to think the star power of Harry Styles and acclaimed director Dave Meyers might deliver that team the win, but this is at least one category where the Grammys tend to favor the socially conscious. Defending champion "Old Town Road" was a silly song and fun video, but the backstory of that track's popularity was linked to exposing racism in the Country industry, and the three winners before that were Childish Gambino's "This Is America," Kendrick Lamar's "HUMBLE.," and Beyoncé's "Formation." As such, you have to imagine the two songs and videos that touch on racial injustice and black pride are best poised to win here. I will never complain about an Anderson.Paak victory, especially for something as impactful as "Lockdown." But the simply gorgeous video for "Brown Skin Girl" brought tears to my eyes, and "Grammy winner Blue Ivy Carter" is a sentence I want to be able to say this year. Also, though it is thematically much more lighthearted, I would have loved to see a shoutout for DaBaby's delightful, chaotic, choreographed "Bop" music video, featuring Broadway shout-outs, dance crew The Jabbawockeez, and a twerking hand-walker.
"Grammy winner Blue Ivy Carter" is a sentence I want to be able to say this year.
Best Melodic Rap Performance
"The Box" – Roddy Ricch
"Highest In The Room" – Travis Scott
"Laugh Now Cry Later" – Drake featuring Lil Durk
"Lockdown" – Anderson.Paak
"Rockstar" – DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch
Will Win: "Lockdown"
Could Win: "The Box"
Should Win: "Highest In The Room"
Anything BUT: "Laugh Now Cry Later"
Snubbed: "Life Is Good" - Future featuring Drake
This is the inaugural edition of this rebranded Grammys category, as "Best Rap/Sung Collaboration" gave way to "Melodic Rap." It was a necessary change, in my opinion, as the genre of Rap is evolving to incorporate much more sung musicality, and the lines between "Rap" and "Rap/Sung" were getting harder to define. There are some heavy hitters in this category, including two of the biggest songs of the year in "The Box" and "Rockstar." This year is probably the rare year where Drake is an underdog in the Rap categories, which is good news for fans of good music, especially because his best "melodic rap" track of the year wasn't even nominated. I would not be surprised to see either of Roddy Ricch's breakout tracks get the win here, but I actually expect the Grammys to go the more woke route, and recognize Anderson.Paak's smooth-but-cutting protest song "Lockdown." The Grammys love themselves some Paak, and though I do too, I'll shed a tear for Travis Scott's psychedelic, melancholy "Highest In The Room."
Best Rap Song
"The Bigger Picture" - Lil Baby
"The Box" - Roddy Ricch
"Laugh Now Cry Later" - Drake
"Rockstar" – DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch
"Savage (Remix)" – Megan Thee Stallion featuring Beyoncé
Will Win: "Savage"
Could Win: "The Bigger Picture"
Should Win: "Savage"
Anything BUT: "Laugh Now Cry Later"
Snubbed: "JU$T" - Run The Jewels featuring Pharrell Williams
This, too, is a pretty loaded field, with some of the biggest names in the game right now making an appearance. Once again, "The Box" and "Rockstar," nominated for Song of the Year and Record of the Year, respectively, are real contenders. But the Grammys have the opportunity to either give this award to a female rapper for the first time ever, or to recognize a Black Lives Matter-centric track in Lil Baby's "The Bigger Picture," and I think one or both of those opportunities will be too much to pass up. I'm tempted to predict them going the socially conscious route yet again, but ultimately it's hard to bet against the sheer mega-wattage of Megan Thee Stallion and Beyoncé.
Best Rap Album
Alfredo – Freddie Gibbs & The Alchemist
The Allegory – Royce da 5'9"
Black Habits - D Smoke
King's Disease – Nas
A Written Testimony – Jay Electronica
Will Win: King's Disease
Could Win: A Written Testimony
Should Win: A Written Testimony
Anything BUT: King's Disease
Snubbed: RTJ4 - Run The Jewels
Last year's Best Rap Album field felt different without any Kendrick Lamar, Drake or Travis Scott in the mix, but this year's race is a whole other level of anticlimactic. Of course, that's what you get, when the two best rap releases of the year (Black Thought's and Megan Thee Stallion's) miss the eligibility deadline, and the runaway best rap album of the eligibility period isn't nominated. Run The Jewels' RTJ4 was a tour de force, and the fact that the duo's album scored zero noms, not even a Best Rap Song for its fire-and-brimstone smash "JU$T," is low-key one of the biggest snubs of them all. Of the albums that DID get nominated, only Jay Electronica's A Written Testimony really felt both creative and impactful, but I expect it will lose out to Nas' mediocre King's Disease for no reason other than name recognition.
Best Progressive R&B Album
Chilombo – Jhené Aiko
Free Nationals – Free Nationals
Fuck Yo Feelings - Robert Glasper
It Is What It Is – Thundercat
Ungodly Hour – Chloe x Halle
Will Win: Chilombo
Could Win: Ungodly Hour
Should Win: Ungodly Hour
Anything BUT: Chilombo
Snubbed: After Hours - The Weeknd
Yet another rebranded category, "Progressive R&B Album" replaces the sloppily-named "Urban Contemporary Album," a long overdue change. This category will get a lot of attention this year, perhaps more than it usually does, because of what will win, what won't win, and what isn't even there. Few artists had a breakthrough in 2020 the way Chloe x Halle did. The sister act built on their moderate fanbase in a major way with the release of the more mature, exploratory Ungodly Hour. The album showed their deftness with R&B both old and new, and also featured several music videos that revealed the Bailey sisters' remarkable artistic eyes, captivating social media audiences. But, they appear likely to lose out to Jhené Aiko's pleasant but ultimately unimpressive Chilombo, given the latter's commercial success and surprise nod for Album of the Year. And you know who would have been the BEST choice for this award? Maybe two-time winner The Weeknd, whose After Hours was one of the biggest and most-acclaimed releases of 2020, but for some odd reason, couldn't even get a genre nomination at these Grammys.
Best Rock Song
"Kyoto" – Phoebe Bridgers
"Lost In Yesterday" – Tame Impala
"Not" – Big Thief
"Shameika" – Fiona Apple
"Stay High" – Brittany Howard
Will Win: "Kyoto"
Could Win: "Shameika"
Should Win: "Kyoto"
Anything BUT: "Shameika"
Snubbed: "Caution" - The Killers
It would be very unlike the Grammys to do so, but I hope they show this award at the main ceremony, because WOW, what a group of nominees. And how cool to see it so female dominated! It took me forever to decide what my favorite and least favorite was of this bunch. I can't even make a good argument for my "snub" to be included over any of them. But with all due respect to the smooth groove of "Stay High," the crescendoing grief of "Not," and the thumping funk of "Lost In Yesterday," I think this probably comes down to a two-horse race between two critical darlings. Fiona Apple has a whole lot of respect and goodwill from her peers, and "Shameika" is a great song. It doesn't really feel like a 'Rock' song, hence why I begrudgingly selected it as my least-favorable option, but then again, reigning winner "Harmony Hall" doesn't really, either. So I would not be surprised in the least if Fiona's single takes it, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a buzzier name in music, let alone Rock, right now than Phoebe Bridgers. She is so clearly an 'it girl' that I can't foresee her going winless tonight, and this category seems like her most surefire chance at a win, as "Kyoto" was, quite simply, one of the best individual songs of 2020.
Phoebe Bridgers is so clearly an 'it girl' that it's hard to foresee her going winless tonight
Best Alternative Music Album
Fetch The Bolt Cutters – Fiona Apple
Hyperspace – Beck
Jaime – Brittany Howard
Punisher – Phoebe Bridgers
The Slow Rush – Tame Impala
Will Win: Fetch The Bolt Cutters
Could Win: Punisher
Should Win: The Slow Rush
Anything BUT: Hyperspace
Snubbed: Everyday Life - Coldplay
Best Alternative Album rarely gets airtime on the ceremony but year after year, is sneakily one of my favorite categories of the year. That’s no different in 2021, as the albums nominated come from an absolute who's who of beloved indie-rock artists. The only thing that would have improved this set of nominees would have been seeing at least one of my lifelong favorites The Killers and Coldplay, both of whom released their strongest albums in at least a decade last year, named instead of Beck for the millionth time. But that's okay, because Beck won't win. Brittany Howard and her acclaimed album Jaime can't be ruled out, as she has a history of being loved by the Grammys, both as a solo artist and the frontwoman of Alabama Shakes. But it feels likely that this will be another Fiona vs. Phoebe showdown. I was reeeeealllly tempted to go Phoebe again; it just feels like all the industry mojo is with her at the moment. But at the end of the day, Fetch The Bolt Cutters was the most acclaimed album of the year (in fact, one of the most of all time), and this very well could be the Academy's consolation prize for not nominating it for Album of the Year.
Best Pop Solo Performance
"cardigan" – Taylor Swift
"Don't Start Now" – Dua Lipa
"everything i wanted" – Billie Eilish
"Say So" – Doja Cat
"Watermelon Sugar" – Harry Styles
"Yummy" – Justin Bieber
Will Win: "Don't Start Now"
Could Win: "cardigan"
Should Win: "Watermelon Sugar"
Anything BUT: "Yummy"
Snubbed: "Blinding Lights" - The Weeknd
Other than the laughable inclusion of "Yummy," which fortunately has no way of actually winning, this category is a murderers' row. You know what would make this even more of a murderers' row? Having the biggest pop song of 2020 among the nominees. WHERE IS BLINDING LIGHTS?!?
Anyways, we have pop queens and Grammy darlings BIllie Eilish and Taylor Swift back in contention this year, against Dua Lipa's "Don't Start Now," the disco-pop song that played all year long, and two unstoppable songs of the summer in "Say So" and "Watermelon Sugar." I think the latter is actually my 4th favorite song of the nominees, but it's so infectious and I find it so absurd it didn't garner a Record of the Year nomination that I will unabashedly cheer for its victory here. Count out Billie Eilish at your own risk, to be sure, but I would be mildly surprised if this doesn't go to Dua Lipa or Taylor Swift. Swift's "cardigan" is the favorite, and in my opinion, probably the superior song. But in terms of traditional 'pop,' as well as radio dominance, "Don't Start Now" was a force, and I think its lighthearted appeal might be enough to give it the win here.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Changes – Justin Bieber
Chromatica – Lady Gaga
Fine Line – Harry Styles
folklore – Taylor Swift
Future Nostalgia – Dua Lipa
Will Win: folklore
Could Win: Future Nostalgia
Should Win: Future Nostalgia
Anything BUT: Changes
Snubbed: Map Of The Soul 7 - BTS
Again, it really cannot be overstated how hilarious it is that Justin Bieber was somehow nominated several times for his mediocre Changes. Even Bieber himself was mad about this nomination, although it was because he believed he should be considered in the R&B categories. Instead of his genre-questionable, mixed-review-earning album, this would have been the perfect space for the Grammys to recognized the worldwide phenomenon of BTS. But, no point laboring on about albums that won't win this award: in what could basically be the theme of the night, this is going to come down to Dua Lipa vs. Taylor Swift. folklore was bigger than Future Nostalgia was, and I think Swift has the respect of her peers as a songwriter in a way Lipa doesn't yet have. But again, when you think of 'Pop,' an album like Future Nostalgia is exactly what comes to mind. Then there's the chance that they let whichever of the women doesn't win Album of the Year win this one instead; that theory didn't pan out last year with Billie Eilish and Ariana Grande, but because I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen between these two nominees, I'm going to go with this logic.
Is 'Folk Taylor' still a Pop force as well? It seems likely.
GENERAL
Best New Artist
Chika
D Smoke
Doja Cat
Ingrid Andress
Kaytranada
Megan Thee Stallion
Noah Cyrus
Phoebe Bridgers
Will Win: Megan Thee Stallion
Could Win: Phoebe Bridgers OR Doja Cat
Should Win: Megan Thee Stallion
Anything BUT: Noah Cyrus
Snubbed: King Princess ; Jack Harlow
Best New Artist is a fascinating category most every year. It almost always features some names that are destined to be future stars in the Country, Pop, and Rap worlds. Often times, however, the winner is somewhat inexplicable, spawning the running joke of the Best New Artist Curse. This year, it's hard to complain about too many of the nominees, perhaps other than the bizarre inclusion of Noah Cyrus. I don't know much by Chika or Ingrid Andress, but I've heard good things, and I'm happy with the D Smoke (seriously, go watch Rhythm + Flow) and Kaytranada recognition. But, unless Doja Cat can ride a wave of "Say So" love to an upset victory, this will come down to Megan Thee Stallion and Phoebe Bridgers, two fantastic, game-changing artists. It's hard to cheer for one of them over the other, both are so deserving in their own way, but from the recent Grammy trend of giving this award to the biggest already-established name, it feels like that logic should hold with Megan winning. I'll admit, I've waffled a bit from my early confidence that she was the favorite. The Academy's well-documented history of overlooking Black artists, especially Hip-Hop artists, makes me nervous, and hype for Bridgers has been everywhere in the public eye of late. But still, Hot Girl Meg had such a huge year in 2020, and this seems like such a no-brainer way for the Grammys to earn a tiny bit of goodwill back on their racial blindspots.
Song Of The Year
"BLACK PARADE" - Beyoncé
"The Box" - Roddy Ricch
"cardigan" - Taylor Swift
"Circles" - Post Malone
"Don't Start Now" - Dua Lipa
"everything i wanted" - Billie Eilish
"I Can't Breathe" - H.E.R.
"If The World Was Ending" - J.P. Saxe featuring Julia Michaels
Will Win: “cardigan"
Could Win: “Black Parade” OR "Don't Start Now"
Should Win: “everything i wanted”
Anything BUT: "If The World Was Ending"
Snubbed: "Colors" - Black Pumas ; "Only Children" - Jason Isbell
If you've kept up with The Couch, you know I did a full breakdown of the nominees for this category last week. This is the most competitive Song of the Year race in quite some time. I see a legitimately feasible path to victory for 7 of the 8 nominees. The only one I feel confident in saying they for sure won't win is ""If The World Was Ending," and thank goodness, because it's aggressively mediocre. But "The Box" and "Circles," while longshots, were two of the biggest songs of the year, and "everything i wanted," while among the quietest of Billie Eilish's singles, is still a gorgeous song made by a pop star on top of the world right now. There's the Dua-vs.-Taylor showdown yet again, with voters facing the same debate as spelled out in the Best Pop Solo Performance category above. And then of course, with two options among these nominees, there's always a good chance that the Academy uses this category to award a song written in response to racial protests that swept the country last summer. If they go this route, I think Beyoncé's "BLACK PARADE" is the more likely candidate than H.E.R.'s "I Can't Breathe," just because, you know, Beyoncé. But at the end of the day, I agree with the bettors and media outlets that have proclaimed Taylor Swift's "cardigan" the favorite; this is touted as the "Songwriters' Award," and there are few more respected songwriters in the industry today than Taylor.
Record Of The Year
"BLACK PARADE" - Beyoncé
"Circles" - Post Malone
"Colors" - Black Pumas
"Don't Start Now" - Dua Lipa
"everything i wanted" - Billie Eilish
"Rockstar" - DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch
"Savage (Remix)" - Megan Thee Stallion featuring Beyoncé
"Say So" - Doja Cat
Will Win: “Don't Start Now"
Could Win: “Savage” OR "everything i wanted"
Should Win: “Don't Start Now”
Anything BUT: “Circles”
Snubbed: "Blinding Lights" - The Weeknd ; "Watermelon Sugar" - Harry Styles
I also previewed this one! While perhaps not to the same extent as Song of the Year-- there's at least a few nominees, such as "Colors," Circles" and "Rockstar," that really don't seem to have a chance --this is also one of the more competitive Record of the Year races in some time. To be fair, that is thanks in no small part to the ridiculous, unexplained exclusion of two of the year's biggest and best earworms in "Blinding Lights" and "Watermelon Sugar." But there are still several worthy nominees left duking it out. "everything i wanted" didn't have the radio clout that most of the other nominees have, but considering this is the "Producer's Award," and the producer in question is reigning Producer of the Year winner Finneas, it's a real contender. "BLACK PARADE" also was not a radio mainstay, but it's not horribly unlikely that the Academy hit us with the socially conscious double victory for Song and Record of the Year; there's precedent for that from just 2 years ago, with "This Is America." "Savage" and "Say So" both ruled airwaves this sumer, and come from Best New Artist-nominated female rappers, affording the opportunity for a real changing-of-the-guard dynamic in victory. I think the former especially has a real shot at it thanks to the almost universal love of Megan Thee Stallion and Beyoncé. But with silky production, a year-long stay in the charts, and a featured artist who is poised for a massive Grammy night, this feels like Dua Lipa's award to lose, with "Don't Start Now."
Album Of The Year
Black Pumas – Black Pumas
Chilombo – Jhené Aiko
Djesse, Vol. 3 - Jacob Collier
Everyday Life – Coldplay
folklore – Taylor Swift
Future Nostalgia – Dua Lipa
Hollywood's Bleeding - Post Malone
Women in Music Pt. III - HAIM
Will Win: Future Nostalgia
Could Win: folklore OR Everyday Life
Should Win: Future Nostalgia
Anything BUT: Hollywood's Bleeding
Snubbed: RTJ4 - Run The Jewels ; The Slow Rush - Tame Impala
As I discussed in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this appears to be a two-horse race. Let's work our way up to those horses, and start with the four albums that definitely won't win. Half the field is made up of three artists you've probably never heard of, and Post Malone. The latter is a big name in pop music today, and it isn't insignificant that Post is the only artist besides Dua Lipa to be nominated for Song, Record, AND Album of the Year. But still, Hollywood's Bleeding was only decently-reviewed, and was considerably less of a commercial force than his last release. If a Pop artist is going to win this award, it's not going to be Post Malone.
The next tier up are two albums that would be surprise victors, but not enormous shocks. HAIM are far from a household name, but have already garnered a good amount of respect in the music world, and are not new to the Grammys stage. Furthermore, Women in Music Pt. III, a terrific album, is actually the highest-reviewed nominee of the bunch, albeit by a slim margin. Then there's Coldplay, who is a household name, but was a surprise nominee, given their relatively quiet release of Everyday Life, in addition to, well, the rampant dislike of Coldplay. I may be the only person in America who thinks this, but I actually think if the winner is going to be someone other than Dua Lipa or Taylor Swift, it will be Coldplay. Everyday Life was actually more acclaimed than most of Coldplay's work, and has the exact sort of oft-vague coexistent sociopolitical message the Academy can comfortably get behind. Besides, on the rare occasions these last 15 years that Album of the Year hasn't gone to a white female Pop artist, it's gone to a white male indie artist/group, arguably as a sort of 'career acheivement' win. See: Arcade Fire in 2011, Daft Punk in 2014, and Beck in 2015. Want to guess which of the nominees fits the "white alternative guy group who have been around a long time" archetype this year?
That said, I've both hinted at this and said it outright already multiple times this piece: this is about Dua Lipa and Taylor Swift. There's surely no winner tonight besides folklore or Future Nostalgia. I would put a lot of money on one of those two winning. I would NOT put a lot of money on who the winner will actually be (he says, as he has a very high-stakes grilled steak bet with his sister riding on this very award), because I've changed my mind about 10 times. It's generally a good idea to bet on Taylor Swift, and she absolutely ruled the latter half of 2020, with not one, but two surprise, critically-acclaimed folk-indie albums. foklore is a terrific quarantine album, quiet and contemplative, with the low-fi songs running the gamut from comforting to heartbreaking. It spent a good amount of time as the best-reviewed release of the year, and if you're looking for any more storylines, a win tonight would make Swift the first female artist ever to win this award thrice.
And yet, and yet....I can't shake the feeling that things are coming up Dua tonight. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, as Future Nostalgia was my runaway favorite release of 2020, and it should absolutely be noted that I also "couldn't shake this feeling" that it was poised to be Beyoncé's, Lorde's, and Lizzo's nights to win Album of the Year, too. In case you don't remember, it most definitely was not. But still, Lipa has been masterful in keeping her tunes relevant throughout the entirety of a turbulent, quarantine-heavy 2020, and has been extremely visible once again in the wake of the Grammy nominations. If you're looking for a storyline angle, I can assure you the Grammys would love to give this very distinguished honor to someone they crowned the Best New Artist just 2 years ago. Besides, and perhaps most importantly, Future Nostalgia lives up to its bold name. It sounds like something you want to dance to now, something your parents wanted to dance to 20 years ago, and something you (and maybe your kids) will still want to dance to 20 years from now. That sort of cross-generational appeal is what gives us winners like Bruno Mars, Mumford and Sons and Adele. So, while it's understandable to be skeptical that anyone could unseat Taylor Swift after the year she had, don't start doubting Dua Lipa's odds now.
Dua Lipa very well could levitate her way to the Grammys stage multiple times tonight.
Comments