Europa League and Champions League Predictions: Semifinals
Welcome back to your best source for delayed, moved, fan-less European soccer competitions! In all my serious excitement for the Champions League, I realized I haven't really been showing enough love to Europe's secondary tournament, the Europa League.
Under normal circumstances, I really wouldn't be paying much attention to soccer's equivalent of the NIT-- especially because my personal team Liverpool is now an annual Champions League team instead (humble brag). But in these days that are so devoid of live sports and entertainment, the Europa League has also provided some entertaining football, exciting storylines and more. Now both competitions enter the semifinal stage, starting today, and will end the week with finals, played in Cologne and Lisbon, respectively. If you're just tuning in to the Europa League, the two semifinal ties pair teams whose paths to this stage are strangely similar. Sevilla and Manchester United both finished 6th in their domestic leagues last year, so have been in this tournament from the start. Both sides dominated their groups, then survived a scare in the Round of 32, bossed their Round of 16 matchup, then got to the semis by virtue of a very tight quarterfinal. On the other side of the bracket, Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk joined in the tournament in the Round of 32 by virtue of Champions League group stage elimination, and have enjoyed relatively stress-free runs to the semifinals.
As for the Champions League...well, the quarterfinal stages of professional soccer's biggest tournament did not disappoint. When Paris Saint-Germain scored two goals in stoppage time to cap a dramatic comeback victory over underdogs Atalanta, it seemed like we were bound for more "big, bad big-money clubs end the Cinderella run" storylines that have populated the domestic leagues since the restart. However, the very next day, RB Leipzig, a team that has only existed for 11 years, beat out favored Atlético Madrid behind a last-minute goal. Then, Bayern Munich emulated the famous Mineirazo of the 2014 World Cup by completely demolishing Lionel Messi and Barcelona, 8-2, and then to put the cherry on top of the madness, just yesterday, Lyon (the 7th-placed team in France!!!) stunned Manchester City (the richest club in the World!!!!) behind two late goals by their substitute striker.
Exhale. But only long enough to catch your breath, because the games are back on today. To this week's slate of games:
Sevilla vs. Manchester United
Since the early 90s, Manchester United have been one of the most prestigious and famous clubs in the World. Even these days, when it's been 7 years since their last stand atop the Premier League table, the thought of them being underdogs to Sevilla seems ridiculous.
But Sevilla are the ones that are synonymous with the Europa League. The Spaniards are the most successful club in the tournament's history, winning 5 trophies, including a recent stretch of three consecutive titles, from 2014-16. They know this tournament, they love this tournament. What's more, though the incentive of Champions League qualification-- awarded to the title winner -- doesn't apply to this matchup as both sides have qualified by finishing in the Top 4 of their leagues, Sevilla would have slightly more to play for as a trophy would mean they could forgo the final qualifying round of next season's Champions League and skip right to the group stage, where they'd be a top seed.
Both sides are coming off a nervy win in the quarterfinal round, but with all due respect to FC Copenhagen, Manchester United's overtime win (by virtue of a penalty kick) over the Danish champs feels a little less noteworthy than Sevilla's late dramatic win over English overachievers Wolverhampton. Manchester United are the more talented team, but margins are tight enough here that I have to go with the team I think will want it more, and I trust Sevilla's focus and determination more than I do United's.
The Pick: Sevilla, 2-1
Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
These two teams came into the tournament having started the year in the Champions League, and will begin the next campaign in the same fashion, having turned in successful domestic seasons. Shakhtar Donetsk earned their 4th consecutive Ukrainian Premier League title, while Inter Milan's late rejuvenated form saw them finish the season just one point off of Serie A champions Juventus.
Both clubs' paths to the semifinal have been fairly pedestrian, Donetsk's even more so. The Ukrainian titans have beaten their knockout stage opponents by an average aggregate of 4-1. It should be noted, though that Inter's opponents have been objectively tougher (albeit by not a huge margin) each step of the way. This matchup has a bit of a similar feel to the other semifinal; Donetsk has more experience in this tournament, and likely more excitement in competing for its trophy. That said, unlike Sevilla-United, in this case I think the favored side Inter has too much of a talent and coaching advantage to overcome.
The Pick: Inter Milan, 2-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs. RB Leipzig
For 90 minutes, soccer pundits and Twitter banterers were ready to pull out the time-old script of PSG blowing it in the Champions League. This might have been their most inexplicable feat so far; presented with a golden pathway to the Final, they were about to lose to Atalanta, the tiny Italian club making their first-ever Champions League appearance. Then Marquinhos tapped in an equalizer in the 90th minute, and substitute Choupo-Moting slotted home the winner 3 minutes later, and all of a sudden, the script was rewritten.
As if finally reaching the semifinals (and having a healthy Kylian Mbappe moving forward) wasn't enough, the news arguably got better for the Parisians the next day, when they found out their opponent would not be Atlético Madrid, famous confounders of the most talented clubs, but rather a plucky but overachieving RB Leipzig side. Leipzig and young manager Julian Nagelsmann impressed against Atlético, not because they were dominant, but because they were composed and compact throughout, and despite not having star striker Timo Werner any more, showed enough fluidity in attack to break down the infamously stodgy Atlético back line.
But, though PSG are not the mental giants that the great German and English teams are and were, it's hard to see them getting broken down by Leipzig. Unlike Atlético, they not only have a markedly superior starting XI, they also have a manager in Thomas Tuchel who will be familiar with their opponent and its tactics. Leipzig have earned the respect of believing that they can hang with PSG for a while, but I just don't see them notching another upset win at this stage.
The Pick: Paris Saint-German, 2-0
Bayern Munich vs. Lyon
The second of two Franco-German semifinals (the first time in the competition's history that that's happened, by the way) pits two teams at the absolute opposite end of this season's spectrum.
On the one hand, you have Bayern Munich, who this year have not only won Germany's Bundesliga for the 8th straight time, but have been untouchable in the Champions League. Their comprehensive destruction of Barcelona as really only surprising because of Barca's rich history; anyone watching this competition from the start knew there was no way Bayern was losing that match. The 8-2 scoreline barely even increased their average margin of victory, which by the way is now at 3.5 goals.
Then you have Lyon, who this season finished 7th place in the French Ligue 1, widely considered the weakest of the "major" leagues. They squeaked into the knockout stages by finishing 2nd in their group, edging both Benfica and Zenit St. Petersburg by a single point on the final day. From there, it's been narrow upset after narrow upset: notching a 1-0 win at home over Juventus sans star player Memphis Depay, clinging to an away goal advantage (despite a near-constant barrage in the 2nd half) against that same Juventus team several months later, and then just yesterday, capitalizing on a sleepy back line and error-prone keeper to stun heavily-favored Manchester City, despite seemingly having only 5% possession and a 40-shot disadvantage.
But the ride ends here. It has to. Surely, right? Lyon have proven capable of not only scoring against anyone, but defending against most anyone; yet this Bayern team isn't "anyone." Sure, the Germans' back line has been inconsistent enough that it's not a stretch to think Lyon can pelt in a goal or two, but I just don't see any team in the World that's stopping Bayern's attack in its current form, let alone a team (and defense) that isn't even close to the best in France.
It's not that I blame anyone for refusing to overlook Lyon any more, or earnestly cheering for the remarkable story to continue. It's just that a win for the Frenchmen in this one would, in my opinion, one of the greatest upsets in Champions League history.
Come on you Lyonnaise, prove me wrong!
The Pick: Bayern Munich, 4-2