Premier League (Restart) Predictions, Week 31 (Kinda)
Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! The games never stop as Week 30(ish) nearly butted right up to Week 31(sorta), with only FA Cup matches in between. And now here we are again!
But ENOUGH OF THAT. Weeks of the season? FA Cup? Ha! All of this sounds so small and unimportant in comparison to what happened last week. On Wednesday, champions-elect Liverpool turned in perhaps their most impressive performance of the year in a 4-0 demolition of Crystal Palace that really should have been more like 8-0. Just one day later, champions-elect became champions-for-real, as Chelsea, led by American hero Christian Pulisic upset Manchester City and officially ended the title race.
It's been clear for months now that an end was coming to Liverpool's 30-year league title drought, but it didn't make any less emotional and surreal when it happened last week. For this Red, my previous assumptions about hjow much of a bummer it would be to not be able to have an emotional crowd reaction at Anfield with players and coaches hugging went out the window, when I saw the clips of the team celebrating together at their hotel, and interview snippets of Jurgen Klopp breaking down in tears. It's a well-deserved reward for perhaps one of the greatest Premier League teams of all time, and you can bet your ass I will be unbearable about their crowning achievement to make up for years of heartbreak.
In other positive personal news, I did go 3 for 4 in last week's prediction. Though I didn't predict any correct scorelines, I did accurately foretell Wolves over Bournemouth, Manchester United over Sheffield United, and Liverpool over Palace. I did of course inaccurately think that Manchester City would beat Chelsea, but as you can imagine, I didn't mind getting that one wrong. Because my wrong prediction meant that Liverpool would win the title. Liverpool won the title. That week brings me to 67.5/108 on the year, but who cares? Liverpool won the title. Now, I need to momentarily stop basking in the glow of triumph, as the matches are already underway! Here are your 5 for pseudo-Week 31:
Arsenal vs. Norwich City
Tomorrow's match in an empty Emirates Stadium features 10th place vs. 20th place, but also two teams in relative ruts. Norwich City, despite playing a positive brand of football and having flashes of brilliance throughout the season, can't seem to get out of their own way defensively, nor get out of last place in the league. Arsenal entered the restart period in a decent position to compete for a Champions League spot, assuming Manchester City's ban is upheld. But, after disasters against City and Brighton, that possibility seems like a pipe dream. A win late last week against Southampton finally restored a little balance for the Gunners, and kept them within touching distance of Europa League qualification, which is a reasonable goal. Norwich more need a win here, arguably, and are certainly capable of taking advantage of Arsenal's, shall we say, unreliable back line. But each time I've gone on out a limb and placed a little confidence in the Canaries this year, I've gotten burnt, and I fear that may happen again.
You know what else may happen again? Liverpool winning the league.
The Pick: Arsenal, 3-1
Everton vs. Leicester City
Perhaps no team has picked a worse time to lose form than Leicester City, who sat in a comfortable 2nd place at the beginning of this calendar year. Champions League qualification seemed a foregone conclusion, but with two lackluster draws since the restart, the Foxes have won just 2 of their 10 Premier League matches in 2020, and now are clinging to 3rd place by a thread, one point ahead of surging Chelsea, and three points ahead of Manchester United and Wolves. With matches against Arsenal, Sheffield United, Tottenham, and Man U still remaining, it's not premature to call this fixture an absolute must-win for Leicester. Yet, it will be no walkover, as-- other than a shellacking by Chelsea just before the season suspension --Everton have enjoyed an uptick in form, exemplified by a promising restart. The Toffees have a win and a draw this month, with the latter being only the third instance in which crosstown rivals (and by the way, league champions) Liverpool dropped points. Everton's season has been far from consistent, but the defense has been shored up, and there is an undeniable positive trend under Carlo Ancelotti. Unfortunately for everyone who isn't from the blue side of Liverpool, that makes me unsure that Leicester will get their much-needed victory.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
West Ham vs. Chelsea
The beauty of the Premier League is that even in seasons where a champion effectively ends the title race in January (as was the case this year, when Liverpool barnstormed to their first title in 30 years), there is drama to be found in other areas of the standings. Enter West Ham and Chelsea, both needing the same thing for very different reasons. West Ham need a win to keep their heads barely above the relegation zone-- they currently are out of the zone not by point total, but by goal differential alone. Chelsea need a win to maintain their Champions League standing, and perhaps even leapfrog Leicester for 3rd place. The Blues are in perhaps the most torrid form of the league, winning six in a row in all competitions since an embarrassing Champions League loss to Bayern Munich. That streak stretches back to March and includes FA Cup wins over Liverpool and Leicester, as well as the instantly famous league win over Manchester City last week. The Hammers meanwhile have won just 1 out of their last 10 matches, though in fairness to them, their last 7 losses have been to league champions Liverpool (twice), Manchester City, Leicester City, Tottenham, Wolves, and Arsenal. The quality of their opponents may exaggerate how bad their form actually has been, but unfortunately for West Ham, their London rivals Chelsea do not exactly represent a respite from murderers' row.
The Pick: Chelsea, 2-0
Sheffield United vs. Tottenham Hotspur
If "season restart superlatives" were a thing, the runaway winner for "Most Disappointing" would be Sheffield United. The Blades had a remarkable Cinderella season going, competing for Champions League qualification in their first season after promotion to the Premier League, much like Wolverhampton last year, but led by their stout defense rather than a fluid attack. However, their 4 matches back have been calamitous; featuring a slightly less stout defense and an attack anything but fluid, Sheffield have gotten 1 point from 9 in three league matches, and this past weekend, added an FA Cup loss to Arsenal for good measure. It's harsh to pick on a team that so little was expected of this year anyway, but considering where they were going into the season suspension, they can't be pleased by the prospect of facing a de facto elimination match for Champions League contention tomorrow. Tottenham, usually a perennial Top 4 contender-- and in case you forgot, runners-up in last season's Champions League* --have had an enormously inconsistent season, a trend that not even Jose Mourinho could fix. But, the long layoff allowed some key players, Harry Kane not the least among them, to rest up and they've restarted strong, with a hard-earned draw against Manchester United followed by a solid win over West Ham. I expect Sheffield to come out with a little more gumption than they've showed the last few matches, but I just don't feel confident picking them to earn points against a more talented Spurs side, given the form both are in.
*to Liverpool, who won the 2019 Champions League and now have won the 2020 Premier League
The Pick: Tottenham, 1-0
Manchester City vs. Liverpool
One week ago, it looked possible-- nay, probable that this clash of titans would be not just a matchup between the two best clubs in England, but the fixture that ultimately decided the league race. Then, as we all know by now, Wednesday and Thursday of last week delivered a 1-2 punch of Liverpool domination and Man City capitulation....and now the Reds will stroll into the Etihad to a socially-distanced guard of honour, as the new champions. It is a strange irony-- some may call it poetic justice -- that the first time Liverpool take the field as champions will be against the team who edged them for the crown by a single point last season.
The luster of a title-deciding showdown may have been lost, and of course the lack of fans would have made this feel like a world of difference from the first fixture in November anyhow. But make no mistake, this will still be a fascinating match to watch. Who wants this more? Do Liverpool stumble through a celebratory drunken stupor and get railroaded by a pissed off Pep Guardiola? Does City decide to go all in on the FA Cup and Champions League and let record-chasing Liverpool have their fun in this game? Do either managers decide to mix in a number of younger players for these reasons? Will a mix of all the above result in a gross 0-0 stalemate like the one we saw back in 2018? All questions that are on my mind. In the end, I have to make a prediction, and I truly have no clue how this plays out because I cannot attempt to know Klopp or Guardiola's mentality going into this. If I have to choose a winner, I'll say that City are the more likely ones, by virtue of being a. motivated from their loss last week, and b. being just far too talented a team to be bested by the same side twice in one season.
But who cares. City could win 10-0 and I wouldn't care. Liverpool are league champions.
The Pick: Manchester City, 2-1