What A Coronavirus-Altered March Madness MIGHT Have Looked Like
By now, you are undoubtedly aware of the halting effect the coronavirus pandemic has had on sporting leagues and events. As such, that March came and went with no March Madness feels like old news, though in fact the NCAA’s groundbreaking announcement came down just 3 and a half weeks ago. But, tonight is the night that would have seen the championship game being played, and it still feels surreal that we won’t hear the beautiful chords of Luther Vandross’ “One Shining Moment” tonight. To cope with this loss, and in the wake of reading some fascinating behind-the-scenes content of how the committee came to the conclusion to disband America’s greatest postseason in sports, I wanted to fantasize about one of the postseason options the committee considered.
We now know, of course, that no basketball would be able to be played again until probably at least August, a reality that we weren’t yet aware of at the time of the NCAA’s decision to cancel the tournament. But what if the pandemic had been curbed by now? What if it had been possible to play a delayed, modified March (or April, or May) Madness? In the above link, we learned that the committee considered many options for an altered tournament, including inviting just 16 teams to play a condensed tourney, automatic bids be damned.
Personally, I believe the best option would be to go back to the pre-expansion version of the tournament: 32 teams, regular-season conference champions only. Yes, this would feel cruel to the mid-majors who live for the conference tournaments, and especially cruel to the teams who'd miss out on the postseason due to first-place tiebreakers. But this is the best way to recognize the importance of the regular season. After all, despite the crapshoots that conference tournaments can be, all but 4 NCAA national champions in the 21st century (2006 Florida, 2011 and 2014 Connecticut, and 2015 Duke being the exceptions) won their conference regular-season title.
In order to cut down on travel, and prevent a resurgence of the virus, each regional would be played at the top seed's home court, and the regions would be highly, well, regionalized geographically rather than competitively. The Final Four would have to be a more stripped-down affair (in a basketball arena, rather than a huge NFL stadium) in a central location, like Kansas City or Indianapolis.
Here’s how this bracket might have been broken down (seeding based on final BPI rankings on ESPN):
REGIONALS
Using FiveThirtyEight's simulation for the involved teams, here's how the Midwest Region would have proceeded:
First Round
(1) Kansas def. (8) Wright State
(5) Akron def. (4) Cincinnati
(2) Creighton def. (7) North Texas
(6) Stephen F. Austin def. (3) Northern Iowa
Sweet 16
Kansas def. Akron
Creighton def. Stephen F. Austin
Elite Eight
Kansas def. Creighton
Using FiveThirtyEight's simulation for the involved teams, here's how the West Region would have proceeded:
First Round
(1) Gonzaga def. (8) Prairie View A&M
(5) UC-Irvine def. (4) New Mexico State
(2) San Diego State def. (7) Eastern Washington
(3) Oregon def. (6) North Dakota State
Sweet 16
Gonzaga def. UC-Irvine
San Diego State def. Oregon
Elite Eight
San Diego State def. Gonzaga
Using FiveThirtyEight's simulation for the involved teams, here's how the East Region would have proceeded:
First Round
(1) Dayton def. (8) Merrimack
(4) Yale def. (5) Hofstra
(2) Wisconsin def. (7) Siena
(3) Vermont def. (6) Colgate
Sweet 16
Dayton def. Yale
Wisconsin def. Vermont
Elite Eight
Dayton def. Wisconsin
Using FiveThirtyEight's simulation for the involved teams, here's how the South Region would have proceeded:
First Round
(1) Florida State def. (8) North Carolina Central
(4) Liberty def. (5) Belmont
(2) Kentucky def. (7) Winthrop
(3) East Tennessee State def. (6) Arkansas-Little Rock
Sweet 16
Florida State def. Liberty
Kentucky def. East Tennessee State
Elite Eight
Kentucky def. Florida State
FINAL FOUR
One thing that's clear is that selecting only the conference champions creates a pretty clear divide between the top couple seeds in each region from the others. This was evident in the opening three rounds of this tournament, as every hypothetical region had a 1 v 2 matchup in the Elite Eight, a feat that I believe has never happened in the 64-team tournament.
In the Midwest, overall #1 seed Kansas advanced fairly easily to the Final Four, to no surprise. The only team likely capable of giving them trouble would have been Big East champions Creighton, but not even Markus Howard can overcome a rocking Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Kitty-corner from them in the most absurdly easy regional of them all, Dayton strolled to their first-ever Final Four. The #3 team in the country shared a regional with a slew of small mid-majors and Wisconsin, who garnered the Big Ten bid by virtue of a tiebreak with fellow winners Maryland and Michigan State, but was likely actually the worst team of the three. Not every home team carried their regional, however; over in the West, #2 overall seed Gonzaga fell at home to San Diego State, who FiveThirtyEight projected reaching the real-life Final Four. In the South, Florida State, winners of their first-ever ACC title, couldn't stave off bluebloods Kentucky.
In this scenario, the scene would have been set for a pretty spectacular makeshift Final Four in the midwest. Using FiveThirtyEight's simulation for the involved teams, here's how the final weekend would have played out:
Final Four
(W2) San Diego State def. (E1) Dayton
(MW1) Kansas def. (S2) Kentucky
National Championship
Kansas def. San Diego State
CONCLUSION
This tournament obviously would have made us miss the traditional March Madness. There were no stunning upsets, no Cinderellas, no real neutral venues, and the #1 overall team won the contest. But one benefit to this format is that it would have, if only for just one year, given us a more decisive feeling to who the best team in the country was. Plus, what's not to like about a Final Four that features two of the most historic programs in college basketball, and two talented new kids on the block?
There's a sentiment among many that what makes March Madness so great is also its worst attribute: anybody can win or lose one game, and thus so often, the true "best team" doesn't end the season atop the trophy podium. Though I wholeheartedly remain in the camp to #keepMarchMadnessgreat, and of course hope we never see such a life-altering pandemic s this again, perhaps this is an altered tournament idea the committee can keep tucked away as an effective emergency plan.