2019 Couch Power 10, Week 15
Well, College Football fans, we've finally made it to championship week. And when I say "finally made it," I mean "we're already here?!?" Maybe it's just me getting old (I mean, I'm almost at the age where I have to get my own health insurance), but the college football seasons seem to be flying by faster and faster. That we are already through the regular season is surreal.
But it's true, amidst the turkey and stuffing last week, most college football teams in America played their last game of the year (or at least until bowl season begins in a few weeks). The select few get to play this upcoming weekend in their conference's championship games, and per usual, those spots were largely solidified within last week's slate of games.
In many ways, last weekend was "Division Championship Weekend," with the ACC Coastal, Big Ten West, Pac-12 South, American West, Conference USA East and West and MAC West divisions all being decided in the final week of the season. In that vein, respective congratulations are in order to Virginia, Wisconsin, Utah, Memphis, Florida Atlantic, UAB, and Central Michigan. But even amidst all the excitement of those contests, the biggest storyline from last weekend took place in a game that had no bearing on a conference race. No, I'm not talking about Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson emphasizing their dominance with blowout victories in rivalry games. I'm speaking, of course, of the Iron Bowl, which saw its latest installment of "instant classics in Jordan-Hare Stadium." #15 Auburn took down archrivals #5 Alabama in a thrilling, back-and-forth game. Several wondered whether the Tide would be able to compensate for the loss of all-World quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but in actuality, it was not the offense that did Bama in: it was an uncharacteristically leaky defense, it was (again) kicking woes, and it was, wonder of wonders, Guz Malzahn outcoaching Nick Saban. In addition to the satisfaction of one-upping their rivals, Auburn can celebrate knocking Alabama out of playoff contention for the first time since the death of the BCS. Though the committee seems to always finds ways to put Bama in the discussion, the Tide simply have no leg to stand on this time: 2 losses, no division title (let alone a conference title), and 0 wins over ranked teams. Fittingly, they find themselves outside the Couch Power 10 for quite possibly the first time in history.
Just a reminder, this is an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've proved on the field, and is not necessarily meant to be a prediction on how Sunday's final rankings will look.
1a. Ohio State
I have a confession: last week I did something dumb. I predicted—quietly, to a select group of friends—that Ohio State would lose to Michigan, ending the Buckeyes’ perfect season. Why did I do it, when Ohio State had looked so thoroughly unbeatable all year? I wasn’t convinced of the #1 team’s quality; after all, they’d played exactly two ranked teams to date, and both at home. Michigan were quietly rounding into great form, and Jim Harbaugh was desperate for a big-time win, and furthermore, the Buckeyes didn’t have as much to pay for. They had clinched the Big Ten East and the playoff committee is so enamored with them that they almost surely would have made the playoff with a Big Ten Championship win, regardless of what happened in The Game. So why am I telling you this? Is it to make like a Trump supporter and brag about my idiocy, or to make like all sports media and taunt Michigan fans over their heartbreak? No. The reason I say all this is that, in the wake of Justin Fields’ and Ohio State’s absolute demolition in Ann Arbor, I am officially sold. This team is good. Real good.
1b. LSU
LSU did absolutely nothing to warrant a drop in our rankings; quite the opposite, actually. The Tigers manhandled rivals Texas A&M (just one week removed from their near-upset of Georgia), putting 50-plus on an SEC opponent for the 4th time this year. I honestly still think, based on resume alone, they deserve to be the #1 team. My admiration for Ohio State’s performance on Saturday jumps them ever so slightly above these Tigers, but (spoiler alert!!) if LSU is to win the SEC this weekend, they’ll almost surely close the season as the Couch’s #1 team, regardless of how the playoff committee feels.
3. Clemson
After steamrolling “rivals” South Carolina, you can make that 27 consecutive wins for the defending champions, and they still somehow aren’t being discussed as a favorite to take the title this season. The reason of course stems from the fact that unlike LSU, they’ve been so vastly superior to all their opponents that they don’t have the thrilling wins to grab media attention, and unlike Ohio State, they don’t have a QB, RB and defensive player that are all considered genuine Heisman Trophy contenders. Pound for pound, though, I think Clemson fans would take their side against anyone in the country, and the fact that Dabo Swinney is able to use the continued “disrespect” from the committee as emotional motivation should make all potential playoff teams very, very concerned.
4. Georgia
Despite the midseason shock against South Carolina, after steamrolling “rivals” Georgia Tech, the Dawgs are right where they wanted to be at the end of the regular season: champions of the SEC East, with a chance to seal a playoff berth. To say the Bulldogs will have their hands full with #2 LSU is quite the understatement: they will be facing the likely Heisman winner leading one of the best offenses in the country, and their own oft-struggling offense will be without star WR George Pickens in the first half due to his ejection, and star RB De’Andre Swift may be somewhat hampered with a knock he picked up in their last game. All that being said, there’s a not-small part of me that likes Georgia in this matchup. The Dawgs’ season seems to be mirroring their ‘nearly champions’ 2017 season in many ways: balanced (albeit inconsistent) offense, stout defense, several impressive wins that many have forgotten about due to an ugly loss. Two years ago, Georgia rolled into Atlanta as significant underdogs to the SEC West representative Auburn, and blew the doors off their rival to clinch the #3 seed in the playoff. Don’t be shocked if a similar story plays out this Saturday.
5. Oklahoma
In a season as short as 12 games, one common mistake many, myself included, can make is to count a team out of postseason contention after just one loss. Oklahoma has, once again, become the poster child of that folly. Two seasons ago, the Sooners' postseason and Baker Mayfield's Heisman hopes looked to be in jeopardy after an early-season upset by Iowa State, but both came to fruition on the back of 8 consecutive wins and a Big 12 title. Last season, the Sooners' postseason and Kyler Murray's Heisman hopes looked to be in serious trouble after a midseason loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry, but both came to fruition on the back of another Big 12 title, and a little help from Alabama in the SEC Championship. This year, it was Kansas State (and a generally uninspiring out-of-conference slate) dealing a serious blow to the Sooners' postseason and Jalen Hurts' Heisman hopes. But, though Hurts is likely still a longshot in the race agsint Joe Burrow and an Ohio State trio, here the Sooners are, in decent position to again snag a playoff spot. Up until last week, Oklahoma had struggled to make a real impression, even amidst scoring impressive wins over Iowa State and Baylor, typically requiring on late heroics and luck to score the win. But this past weekend, in a comprehensive win over #21 Oklahoma State, the Sooners finally turned in the complete performance they'd been lacking, and showed that with a second win over Baylor, they may be deserving of yet another postseason berth. They'll be cheering hard for LSU and Oregon to aid their quest, but wins by both those teams is not too difficult to comprehend.
6. Utah
One week after Oregon muffed their chance to get to the College Football Playoff, Utah played in primetime looking to avoid the same fate. For a quarter and half, it appeared the Utes might be in the same kind of trouble, but eventually, they put on the jets against pesky Colorado and solidified their place in the Pac-12 Championship. Based on the last several weeks, it would seem that (provided they beat Oregon on Friday, small task) they would stand to gain the most from a LSU defeat of Georgia in the SEC Championship. It will be fascinating, though, to see how the committee's rankings shake out tomorrow; it appears they have been much more impressed by Utah than they have been by Oklahoma or Baylor. But the eye test might be all the Utes have to go on. The resume comparison against both Big 12 contenders is inferior: to date, Utah has zero wins over ranked teams, contrasted with the Big 12 teams' wins over Oklahoma State, Iowa State and in the case of Baylor, Kansas State. In addition, their sole loss (at USC) is at best comparable to Oklahoma's loss to Kansas State and is certainly inferior to Baylor's nailbiting loss to Oklahoma. Even if their first win over a ranked team is to come in the Pac-12 Championship, a win over Oregon would now likely be valued less than a win over both Baylor and Oklahoma. So, Utah first need to take care of the one aspect they can control on Friday night, but even provided they do that, they'll spend the next 36 hours on pins and needles.
7. Baylor
As discussed above, Baylor's body of work to date is actually likely more impressive than you expected. Their 11-1 season included wins over 4 teams ranked currently or within the last 2 weeks, the sole blemish came in a game in which they led Top 10 Oklahoma by 25 points, and it culminated in a 60-point blasting of Kansas last week. So, do the Bears need a large amount of assistance to edge into the playoff discussion? Certainly. But, to both Oklahoma fans and playoff projectors alike: overlook them at your own risk.
8. Florida
The Gators may be disappointed to again be sitting at home on the final Saturday watching their two rivals compete for the SEC Championship, but their easy victory over Florida State punctuated a very good year for Florida. It wasn't always easy or pretty, but a 10-2 season with the sole losses coming to both SEC division champions will certainly be good enough for a final Top 10 ranking and a berth in a premier bowl game yet again.
9. Penn State
Penn State closed another good year with a perhaps closer-than-expected win over an awful Rutgers team. You'd forgive the Nittany Lions for not being particularly motivated after their tough loss to Ohio State last week, but another 10-win season has put them in prime position to score a Rose Bowl berth unless Wisconsin does the unthinkable and beats Ohio State on Saturday.
10. Memphis
After many weeks of no representation, our final Couch Power 10 of the season brings back a Group of Five representative! The commentators mentioned during Memphis' victory over Top 15 Cincinnati that were it not for their one loss, they would likely be in the playoff discussion, and while I applaud those commentators' pure-hearted belief in an equal and just system, I feel confident that is not true. That said, a 2-point loss at a bowl-bound Temple team is not the worst loss, and with wins over Ole Miss, Navy, SMU and Cincinnati (3 of which could feasibly ranked at the end of the year), it's hard not to see Memphis as the clear flagbearer for the Group of 5 teams this season. If the Tigers can beat Cincy for the 2nd time in 8 days on Saturday-- a very tough task in and of itself --they'll almost surely be Cotton Bowl-bound.
Just missed: Wisconsin, Alabama, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Boise State, Auburn,
Dyami Touchdown Brown
BONUS! Conference Championship Predictions
American: Memphis over Cincinnati
Conference USA: Florida Atlantic over UAB
MAC: Central Michigan over Miami (Ohio)
Mountain West: Boise State over Hawaii
Sun Belt: Appalachian State over Louisiana-Lafayette
ACC: Clemson over Virginia
Big 12: Oklahoma over Baylor
Big Ten: Ohio State over Wisconsin
Pac-12: Oregon over Utah
SEC: Georgia over LSU