Premier League Predictions, Week 13

Welcome back to your weekly Premier League predictions! After yet another miserably long International Break, we finally return to domestic league action. I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but I can't stress how much I've lost the love for international football. The World Cup and Euro Cup are still my two favorite soccer tournaments, but I hate having my regular Premier League viewing disrupted. The quality of Liverpool and lack of quality of the US Men's National Team really kills that international soccer buzz.

Speaking of "broken records": my terrific run of predictions came crashing to a halt two weekends ago. It all started well, with accurate forecasts of Chelsea and Leicester triumphs. However, I overestimated Tottenham's ability against Sheffield (as well as their ability to identify a quality manager...but more on that in a minute), and projections of Manchester United and Liverpool dropping points at home were significantly wrong. My twofer week takes me to a precarious 27/40 on the season.

Now, the matches are less than 12 hours away from starting, so let's not waste any more time groveling my fall. Here are your 5 for Week 13!

West Ham vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Well, give Tottenham credit for this: they had lost nearly all relevance in the Premier League race, so they went out and did something to re-introduce themselves to the public eye. I'm not convinced, though, that sacking manager Mauricio Pochettino was the way to go about it. Yes, Spurs are in the midst of an atrocious-- by their recent standards -- first half of the season, but we're talking about the man who essentially built them into a Premier League and Champions League contender. Even more baffling, Pochettino was let go in the last days of the international break, and new manager Jose Mourinho, the hottest hire of 2015, was ushered in with little time to acquaint himself to the squad. It's for this reason that I think Tottenham won't see a victory in Mourinho's first match at the helm. Though they rate superior to West Ham in talent, and often you see teams that have been underachieving get that "new manager" bounce (see Man United and Leicester last year for recent examples), I just think the timing of the transition was too harsh to leave the players excited about this new era, especially if MourinhoBall at Tottenham is anything like the way it has been in his previous spells in the Premier League.

The Pick: Draw, 0-0

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leicester City

A Leicester newspaper headline the other day made me do a double-take. It read "Potential injuries to Liverpool starts could be huge boon in Foxes' Premier League challenge." It's no longer a surprise, it's no longer considered a fluke, it's no longer even noteworthy: Leicester City aren't just "having a moment," they are legitimate contenders in the Premier League race. They have the best goal differential in the land. They and Chelsea sit on the same number of points, and those two clubs have played the most consistently high-quality football, outside of Liverpool, to date. So, does the Foxes' good run continue? Brighton is not a bad team at all, and my inner cynic is tempted to predict that Leicester's mojo might have been quelled by the international break. But I've already underestimated that side too much in 2019.

The Pick: Leicester City, 2-0

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool

The last couple weeks could not have gone much more brilliantly for Liverpool. Mo Salah, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Naby Keita all returned from injury, they secured a comfortable win in the Champions League, and then, in the season's most crucial match thus far, put on a show against defending champions Manchester City which opened up an 8-point lead atop the table. But now, the time-old question of whether momentum can be sustained through an international break creeps up again, especially at Selhurst Park, a venue that has given the Reds trouble in past years. More troubling for Liverpool: as the December slog approaches, they are still without CB Joel Matip, and Salah re-aggravated his injury and is a doubt for tomorrow's match, as is Andy Robertson, a crucial part of his team's attack and defense. I keep waiting for Liverpool to drop points they shouldn't, and so far, they keep winning. But visions of Wilfried Zaha making runs at stand-in left-back James Milner are all it takes to make me think this might be the week.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Manchester City are one of the squads that will be thanking their lucky stars for this international break. Not only did it give an injury-laden team a chance to lick its wounds a bit, it provided a respite in between two massive matches. Immediately after City's disappointing 3-1 loss at Liverpool, they had to instantly begin thinking about hosting Chelsea, who, perhaps stunningly, have passed them on the table. Chelsea had a choppy start to the year, taking just 8 points from their first 6 matches. Since their second half turnaround against Liverpool, however, a switch seems to have flipped: the Blues have won 11 of their last 12 in all competitions, their sole loss coming in the League Cup to Manchester United. It's been a remarkable turnaround from Frank Lampard's young team, or the Fightin' Pulisics, as I like to call them. However, the caveat to their form is that all 6 of those Premier League wins came against significantly lower quality opposition. Can the Blues keep the torrid form up against the most talented team (on paper) they will face all year? I'm going to predict they can't. Not because I think that Chelsea isn't for real, but simply because I cannot see a Guardiola-coached Man City side desperate for a big win dropping points at home.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-2

Sheffield United vs. Manchester United

Tottenham's hiring of Jose Mourinho, who this time last year was still the manager of Manchester United, has to have put United on notice. Not because they will necessarily fear seeing their old manager on an opposing sideline, mind you, but amidst the club's spell in the doldrums, seeing an available Mauricio Pochettino may put real pressure on current manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. As for Ole: he has more pressing concerns, such as playing on the road against the current #5 team in the League. Yes, you read that correctly: newly promoted Sheffield United is in 5th place. And it's no fluke: the Blades are extremely well-coached, and are markedly resilient. They honestly should be favored in this matchup, talent disparity be damned. But Man U have quietly started to turn things around on their end. Since their surprising 1-1 draw against Liverpool, they have won 5 of 6, and have generally been playing more fluid, positive football. As such, no result in this matchup would truly surprise me.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Premier League Predictions, Week 13

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