Champions League Final Preview
Tomorrow in Madrid, the Champions League Final will finally commence, after what seems like an eternity of a wait after the conclusion of the domestic seasons. I often refer to this match as professional soccer’s Super Bowl, and the cleat fits: you usually won’t find a more coveted trophy at the club level of the sport. In addition, with no Men’s World Cup nor Euro Cup this year, and with the Women’s World Cup unfortunately not having the draw most Men’s Cups do, it’s not a stretch to say this will be the most watched soccer match in the World this year.
This time last year, I was writing with bated breath about how my favorite club Liverpool were going to play in the Cup Final. This time, I write with bated breath about…how my favorite club Liverpool is going to play in the Cup Final.
Yes, 1/2 of the participants in soccer’s Super Bowl are the same as last year, but the context could not be more different. Last year, Liverpool, the 4th best team in the Premier League, but an upstart in the Champions League, reached the final but were massive underdogs to defending champion Real Madrid, who would of course go on to win once more. This year, the Reds, who finished one point away from winning their first Premier League title in history (and finished with the 3rd-greatest Premier League season ever) come in as the favorite, and the de facto ‘Big Boy’ of the two. Their opponent? A familiar foe: fellow Premier League club, Tottenham Hotspur. How did England’s #2 and #4 team in 2018-19, working with a much smaller budget than most major European sides get to this point? In the unlikeliest of manners.
Roads to the Final
With just 45 minutes left to play in Liverpool’s semifinal tie against Barcelona, the Reds still needed 3 goals to overcome their deficit, and oh by the way, couldn’t concede any in the process, which is not an easy task when your opponent starts the World’s greatest player Lionel Messi up top. As of the 4th minute of stoppage time in the second semifinal leg for Tottenham Hotspur, the London club were on their way out of the tournament, beaten narrowly on aggregate by fellow underdogs, Ajax of Amsterdam. I don’t know what the official percent likelihoods of either team, let alone both, winning were but I can’t imagine it was anything in the double digits.
But the two Premier League sides had been defying odds from the start of the tournament. The two of them both needed to maneuver a great escape on the final match day to even progress out of the Group Stage. Tottenham were in 3rd place as the result of a slow start to group play, which included one draw and two losses in the first three, Liverpool in 3rd as the result of shock road losses to Napoli and Red Star Belgrade, matches in which the 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines (respectively) were actually flattering to the losing team. Yet, the Reds got a 1-0 win over Napoli in the final showdown, to draw level with them on points and goal differential, and eke past them on total goals scored. Spurs got a crucial (and unexpected) road draw at Barcelona, and thanks to an equally crucial and unexpected draw from Inter Milan against already-eliminated PSV Eindhoven, were also able to squeeze into the last 16 by virtue of total goals scored.
There was to be no respite, as both sides faced German stalwarts in the knockout stages. Tottenham were underdogs to then-Bundesliga leaders Borussia Dortmund, but passed the test easily, dismissing them 4-0 on aggregate. Liverpool played to a goalless draw at home against Bundesliga titans Bayern Munich, and most assumed the coffin was closing on their time in the tournament. That was of course not to be, as the Reds stunned Bayern in Munich with a 3-1 victory. In the quarterfinals, Liverpool finally found proceedings more easy, making easy work of Portugese champions FC Porto for the 2nd consecutive year. Tottenham had a…different time in the quarterfinals. Going against Premier League defending champions Manchester City (who would then go on to win their 2nd-straight league title), Spurs scored a surprise 1-0 victory at home. Then, despite trailing by 2 goals in the return leg, were able to engineer a comeback and hold on for the result they needed in remarkable fashion, producing one of the most thrilling soccer matches of any league, all year.
But, as you now know, the thrills were not to stop there. The English clubs’ first legs in the semifinals could only be described as disastrous. Liverpool more than held their own against Spanish champions Barcelona (widely considered to be the best team in the World) in the run of play, but some pure magic from Messi saw them losing 3-0, all but shutting the door on their Final dream. Tottenham didn’t have the scoreline deficit that Liverpool played themselves into, only staring down a 1-0 deficit, but the Spurs’ loss came at home in London, and the young upstarts Ajax had typically played better in the 2nd leg throughout the tournament. But, if you even remotely follow fútbol, you know what came next. 6 days after their blowout, Liverpool hosted Barcelona without star players Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino, nor midfielder Naby Keita available. Throughout the match, they would lose star fullback to Andrew Robertson to injury and nearly lose captain Jordan Henderson, though the latter was able to shake off his knock and return. Despite ALL of this, Liverpool pulled out a shocking 4-0 victory, thanks to a brace each from 3rd-choice striker Divock Origi and halftime substitute Georgino Wijnaldum. It was one of the most stunning results in Champions League history, and it typified Liverpool’s “next man up” grit that we’ve seen so often under Klopp. And, yet, it might have only been the 2nd-most amazing match that week. For one day later, Ajax pelted in two first half goals to increase their aggregate lead to 3-0 heading into the final 45 minutes of play. Then, like Wijnaldum before him, Tottenham forward Lucas Moura knocked in two goals in a 3-minute span in the 2nd half to shift the balance of the match entirely. When a Jan Vertonghen header (with a clear sight of goal) hit the crossbar and stayed out at the start of stoppage time, it seemed like Tottenham’s fortune had run out. Yet, they were able to generate one more forward attack, and with the absolute last kick of the game, Moura zinged in one last goal to notch likely the most famous hat trick in history, and secure Spurs’ first-ever Champions League Final appearance.
How The Teams Compare
Enough about their winding journeys here: the teams are here now, and for Liverpool and Tottenham, it’s all about a single match now. So, how do they compare head-to-head? They’re not unfamiliar with each other, that’s for certain. Since Jürgen Klopp arrived at Liverpool (Mauricio Pochettino had already been helming Tottenham for a season and a half), the two sides have played each other 9 times, 8 of them coming in the Premier League. In fact Klopp’s first match at Liverpool was against Tottenham, an 0-0 draw at White Hart Lane. It’s hard to find a more consistently competitive opponent in the Premier League for Klopp’s men. Liverpool owns 4 wins in the series to Tottenham’s 1, but they’ve also drawn 4 times, and, save for Tottenham’s sole win (a 4-1 romp at Wembley Stadium in 2017), every single match has been decided 1-1 or 2-1.
Familiarity, at this point, between the two managers is likely increasingly a factor in their matchups, and certainly plays a role in this Final, even if it’s a zero-sum game when it comes to advantage. But even before the two got really acquainted with each other, their showdowns were tense and tight, and that fact might be explained by their stylistic similarities.
Pochettino’s 4-2-3-1 isn’t quite the same as Klopp’s vaunted gegenpressen, but it’s no secret that both teams like to press, attack, and work the ball into the box. Thus, as you might expect, there’s a veritable wealth of speed and attacking prowess between the two teams’ starting XI’s. Tottenham Hotspur tout the defending World Cup Golden Boot winner Harry Kane, and his fellow academy product Dele Alli is ever-dangerous. Son-Heung Min of South Korea and the Danish Christian Eriksen are perpetually some of the more sought-after names in the transfer market, and this all to say nothing of the Brazilian Lucas Moura, who of course is essentially the sole reason Tottenham is in the Final after his heroics against Ajax. On the other side of things, Liverpool boast the defending Premier League Player of the Year up top in Mohamed Salah, his fellow Golden Boot winner in 2018-19, Sadio Mané, and well-respected forward Roberto Firmino whose facilitation play is just as devastating as his goalscoring.
Both sides will feel comfortable in midfield as well; the two are in a similar boat in that their midfielders are not household names, but absolutely get the job done. James Milner, Henderson and Wijnaldum are likely to be the 3 supporting the vaunted attacking trio for Liverpool, but don’t be surprised to see bulldog Fabinho in the mix for one of them instead. All 4 have been in terrific form, particularly in this competition. On Tottenham’s end, the likes of Moussa Cissoko, Victor Wanyama, and/or Eric Dier should be able to more than hold their own.
If there’s a clear personnel advantage for Liverpool, it comes in the back line. It’s not that Danny Rose, Jan Vertonghen, Toby Alderweireld, and Kieran Trippier aren’t a solid back 4 (though the outside backs in particular have not had quite the season Tottenham fans would have hoped for). Rather, Liverpool have had one of the best set of defenders in the World this season, which is probably the best explanation for their jump from a decent side to Premier League heavyweight. Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are considered to be the most in-form fullbacks in just about anywhere at present, and what more to say of Virgil Van Dijk? The Dutch colossus is fresh off winning the 2018-19 Premier League Player of the Year, only the 3rd defender in recent history to do so. The other center back in the pairing has been a revolving door, largely brought on by injury, but whether it was Joe Gomez at the start of the season or Joel Matip as of late, they’ve proven a worthy counterpart to Van Dijk. Moving one step back, the largest individual position advantage would have to come between the sticks. I recognize that in my preview last season, I argued that Loris Karius was really probably about as reliable as Keylor Navas, and that turned out to be the worst prediction since Seth Davis picked Florida Gulf Coast beating North Carolina in the first round. But I mean it this time: Liverpool have the upper hand. Hugo Lloris has been a humble servant for Tottenham for many years, and he is still, at his best, a very good keeper. But he has also been prone to a few to many Karius-esque mistakes of late, including a near-identical gaffe in the World Cup Final less than a year ago. Alisson, meanwhile, has been a revelation for Liverpool. The summer signing received the Premier League Golden Glove award for notching 21 clean sheets during the season, but more importantly, has been Liverpool’s hero time and again in this competition. Origi and Wijnaldum received most of the attention for their goalscoring in the comeback against Barcelona, but were it not for Alisson’s athleticism and quick decision-making, Barca may have had two goals in the bag by halftime.
Injury Report
One dynamic that could be at play is the injured participants, whether that be coming into the match or during it. Salah famously left the Champions League Final 25 minutes into the match last year, clutching a broken shoulder after a dubious takedown by hack artist Sergio Ramos. Salah was injured again recently, enough so that he sat out the magical comeback against Barcelona. Given that he returned to action in the Premier League season finale, though, he is expected to be starting tomorrow, and likely with an additional burst of motivation after last year’s early exit. Same goes for Robertson, who also returned against Wolverhampton after exiting the 2nd Barcelona match early. Firmino, too, is expected to be in service for Liverpool after missing their last 4 matches of 2018-19; his return will be out welcome for fans in red. The only definite absence for the Reds will be creative midfielder Naby Keita, who is a big loss as he was just about rounding into free-flowing form when he picked up yet another knock. The good news for his team is that Klopp might just be able to call on another creative mid, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who had a terrific 2018 season, but is only now recovering from an ACL injury after about 365 days.
For Tottenham, the injury bug has not been quite as kind. Spurs have had to go through large swaths of their season missing key players, and for a while, it appeared as if the Champions League Final may be the same case. However, thanks in no small part to the long layoff, it does seem as if they will be able to get Alli, Vertonghen, and crucially, the long-absent Kane back from injury just in time. They’ve gotten used to playing without Kane (and actually, have weirdly enough often looked better in his absence), but it’s hard to imagine them going into battle lacking him, their young star midfielder, AND their best defender. At this point, they will likely be able to put their strongest XI forward although Danny Rose is one to keep an eye on.
Prediction
Enough, you say! Enough rambling! We want a prediction!
And a prediction you shall have, though it’s not easy for me to say. A Champions League Final is never easy to predict, necessarily (he says, while slyly directing you to his spot on 3-1 Real Madrid prediction from last year). As discussed above, nearly 100% of the times these two plays, it’s a very even, very entertaining match. Anything can happen in a Cup Final, but I think the only bad prediction would be to expect a rout from either team.
Tottenham have punched above their weight seemingly all year, and certainly in this competition. They were dead and buried so many times, and against so many great teams, and somehow scrapped their way to victory each time. It means that if Liverpool lead by just 1 goal heading into stoppage time, and all of a sudden Spurs formulate an attack, I’ll get an involuntary sick feeling of expectation in my stomach. You can’t fault their fans for felling as if their team is a team of destiny. And furthermore, one of the oldest adages in any sport is that it’s hard to beat a good team 3 times in one season. After two very close, borderline fluky wins against Tottenham this season, can Liverpool really do it a third time?
And yet, when I think about it…surely Liverpool wins this, right? It’s not as if they don’t have destiny on their side as well. They weren’t supposed to make it out of their group after losing to Red Str Belgrade. They weren’t supposed to beat Bayern Munich in Munich. They CERTAINLY weren’t supposed to rally from a 3-0 deficit to Barcelona. Surely, they don’t come all this way, just to lose at the exact same stage they did last year. That’s motivation enough for any team, let alone a team that has bolstered its back 5 and is playing a team it’s lost to just once in their last 15 meetings.
Not only have nearly all of the Klopp v. Pochettino matchups been close, but, I’ve noticed, so too have the instances of a domestic derby showdown in the Champions League final. Real-Atlético Madrid in 2016 and in 2014, Bayern-Dortmund in 2013, Manchester United-Chelsea in 2008… All thrilling matches played to the absolute last minute; but every time the favorite came out on top by a razor-thin margin. I feel this will transpire quite similarly.
I’m always scared to make heart predictions my official predictions, but when again are my heart and head actually going to align so strongly in a match of this magnitude? I have to make good on such a moment.
Liverpool, 3-2