Couch Final Four Preview
Here we are: the final frontier of the college basketball season takes place today. The Final Four is arguably the biggest American sporting event outside of the Super Bowl, as supporters and alumni of 4 universities, various celebrities, and fans of basketball in general will all descend this weekend in Minneapolis, which plays host to the proceedings for the first time in nearly 20 years.
It's not the Final Four most anyone expected coming into the postseason. For a tournament that went fairly chalk the first weekend, the fact that none of Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Tennessee or Kentucky are in Minnesota is a pretty large shock. Instead, we have a motley crew of surprise successes: one Final Four mainstay who has often fallen short of the ultimate prize, one program who has shaken their notorious propensity for flaming out early in the tournament, and two other teams making their first Final Four appearances in history.
The four participants are all in the same boat of being unexpected contenders at this stage, if not pure bracket-busters, but they also share stylistic similarities. Typically in the Final Four, you see a clash of tempos, orthodoxies, etc. Not so this time around: these are four balanced, experienced, tough defensive teams. So how to predict what will happen? It's hard to say, but I will try to do so. This tournament has all-too-often gone with what I logically think will happen, rather than what my heart wants, so I will make both a "heart" pick and a "head" pick.
(1) Virginia vs. (5) Auburn
Virginia's path to their first Final Four since the Ralph Sampson was laid out fairly simply for them-- there's no other way to say it, the #2 overall seed in the tournament was presented with a comparatively easy bracket in contrast to their 1-seed peers. The Cavaliers still managed to make it harder than it needed to be, though. After spending a half trailing a 16-seed for the second straight year, Virginia needed some key late stops to avoid an upset from 12th-seeded Oregon in the Sweet 16. Then, in the Elite 8, they were on the verge of another upset defeat before somehow maneuvering an escape.
Auburn's path was not the most straightforward, either, with two absolute routs sandwiched by near-losses. The SEC Tournament champions opened their account by nearly conspiring to blow the game against 12-seed New Mexico State in epic fashion. However, after somehow surviving in that one, they stopped missing from the 3-point line and absolutely blew the doors off of Kansas in the next round, and tournament favorites North Carolina in the Sweet 16. In the Elite 8, they faced SEC counterparts Kentucky, who had beaten them twice prior in the season, and without the injured Chuma Okeke, looked overmatched and beat. However, the Tigers were able to toughen out the last few minutes and force overtime, where they ran away with the upset victory.
Both teams play remarkable defense, but also have the capability to go absolutely ballistic from the perimeter on offense. It's what makes this matchup so intriguing: you could tell me literally any result and it would not surprise me. If one's teams 3-pointers are falling and the other's aren't, this has the potential to get ugly. Conversely, if both or neither are hitting from outside, we're likely in for a wire-to-wire affair. I'd love to see Auburn pull out a high-flying outside shooting contest. Ultimately, though, I think the famous plight of 3-point shooting in arenas will continue, and though the Tigers compensated for Okeke's absence admirably in the Elite 8, it will be hard to keep up that intensity in the paint against Mamadi Diakite and Jack Salt. When in doubt, go with consistency and coaching (oh, and lack of flu-ridden players).
Heart says: Auburn, 90-81
Head says: Virginia, 79-66
(2) Michigan State vs. (3) Texas Tech
Michigan State, after completing a season sweep of highly-ranked rivals Michigan and snatching the Big Ten regular-season and tournament titles, felt jilted they were left off the 1-seed line. The Spartans came out flat in their first matchup against 15th-seeded Bradley, but after that, channeled their frustration into inspired play, routing Minnesota and LSU in back-to-back games, before pulling out a tough win over the national player of the year and tournament favorites Duke in thrilling fashion.
Texas Tech had the most straightforward run to this stage of any of the four, hardly even being tested until their most recent affair. The Red Raiders destroyed their first two opponents before running defending runners-up Michigan off the floor in Anaheim. In the Elite 8, they were finally pushed to the brink, by top seeds Gonzaga. Yet, the underdogs looked the part of title contenders by out-muscling and outsmarting the favored Bulldogs.
Just like the first game, I could see this going either way. Unlike the first game, though, I would be surprised to see a blowout in this one. Even when Texas Tech's offense isn't hitting, their defense is so impressive that it can keep them in any matchup, which I ultimately think might be the case tonight. I would not be shocked to see the upperclassman-heavy Red Raiders pull out a nailbiter. However, at this stage, experience more than anything tends to win out. The Spartans have the only coach of the four that has been at this stage in the tournament and knows what it takes to win it all. They're led by high-IQ players such as Cassius Winston, Nick Ward, and Matt McQuaid and this, plus their balance on offense will likely be the difference-maker in a close one.
Heart says: Texas Tech, 69-68
Head says: Michigan State, 65-61