2018 Emmy Predictions
Tomorrow night, the 70th Emmy Awards take place! For the first time in many, many years (read: ever?), I will actually be watching as an invested viewer, start to finish.
For starters, its placement on a Monday night means no clashing with any important sporting events (#priorities), and I happen to be a big fan of co-hosts Michael Che and Colin Jost. But perhaps, more so, this is the first installment in a long while in which I am actually watching or at least familiar with the bulk of the nominated shows. For years, I was too young to know just about any of the major nominees except West Wing and Lost. Then I was of appropriate age right round the time the "Golden Era of Television" began, and there was too much content out there for me to keep up with. Yet, with deep dives into several shows I probably would not have heard of were it not for more-connected friends and family, I feel better equipped to add yet another Awards Show to my viewing docket.
All that being said, there is still TONS of T.V. I haven't watched. So, though this will mimic similar preview pieces I've done on Grammy and Oscar shows of the past, in place of a "Should Win" statement, I'm offering an insight into who "I'll Be Rooting For." I have binge-watched, and thus have a rooting interest in, at least one of the nominees in most categories, but as I have not seen many of them, don't want to be so rash as to make an ill-informed moral proclamation. Enough mouthiness from me, let's get these award predictions rollin'!
WRITING
Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Alec Berg, Silicon Valley ("Fifty-One Percent")
Alec Berg and Bill Hader, Barry ("Chapter One: Make Your Mark")
Amy Sherman-Palladino, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Pilot")
Donald Glover, Atlanta ("Alligator Man")
Liz Sarnoff, Barry ("Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going")
Stefani Robinson, Atlanta ("Barbershop")
Will Win: Amy Sherman-Palladino
Could Win: Donald Glover OR Alec Berg and Bill Hader
I'll Be Rooting For: Alec Berg
Should Have Been Here: Dan Goor and Luke Del Tredici, Brooklyn Nine-Nine ("Jake and Amy")
All signs point to Marvelous Mrs. Maisel having a big night, and that very well may be kicked off with Sherman-Palladino taking home this prize for her work on the show's debut episode. She'll have stiff competition though, from Donald Glover, who won Directing and Acting awards for Comedy last year, Alec Berg, who has nominated contributions for two shows, and Bill Hader, who collaborated with Berg on the new critically-acclaimed show Barry. I'd be happy with any of the winners, but personally, I'd like to see Silicon Valley get a win tomorrow, and this might be their best shot. Also, Brooklyn Nine-Nine is one of two criminally underrated Comedies you'll see me reference throughout this piece; the show's writing, in particular for the most recent season's finale, is equal parts hilarious and tender and heartfelt.
Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Bruce Miller, The Handmaid's Tale ("June")
David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones ("The Dragon and the Wolf")
The Duffer Brothers, Stranger Things ("Chapter Nine: The Gate")
Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg, The Americans ("START")
Peter Morgan, The Crown ("Mystery Man")
Phoebe Waller-Bridges, Killing Eve ("Nice Face")
Will Win: Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg
Could Win: Bruce Miller OR Phoebe Waller-Bridges
I'll Be Rooting For: Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg
Should Have Been Here: K.J. Steinberg and Shukree Hassan Tilghman, This Is Us ("Number Two")
The Americans is the favorite here, and no surprise, either. Though the program has a fairly dry awards cupboard, but its series finale was one of the most terrific episodes of television in modern history, and the writing is every bit as responsible as the directing and acting. Yet, as we saw last year, Handmaid's Tale is a force to be reckoned with, and don't be surprised either to see recognition for the much-acclaimed pilot for Killing Eve.
ACTING
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live ("Donald Glover/Childish Gambino")
Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta ("Woods")
Henry Winkler, Barry ("Chapter Four: Commit....to YOU")
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live ("John Mulaney/Jack White")
Louie Anderson, Baskets ("Thanksgiving")
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Thank You and Good Night")
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt ("Kimmy and the Beest!")
Will Win: Henry Winkler
Could Win: Bryan Tyree Henry OR Tony Shalhoub
I'll Be Rooting For: Titus Burgess
Should Have Been Here: Joe Lo Truglio, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Holy cow, what a set of nominees. That, of course, is probably the avid TV fanatic's reaction to most if not all of these categories, but Supporting Actor - Comedy appears to me to be the most stacked. Pundits almost unilaterally expect Barry's Winkler to grab the trophy this year, but don't be stunned to see fellow "new show nominee" Tony Shalhoub or crowd favorite Bryan Tyree Henry snag it from him. I would have no problem with Winkler winning (though I am yet to watch Barry, I found his turns in Arrested Development and Parks And Recreation equally hysterical), but am partial to Tituss Burgess and Kenan Thompson. Though the fact that the latter has finally, after 15 years on SNL, scored an Emmy nomination is one of the best storylines this year, if I had to choose, I'd prefer the magnificent Titus Andromedon to finally get his much-deserved award, considering his show is, sadly, on its last several episodes. Also, did I mention Brooklyn Nine-Nine gets perpetually slighted? Look no further than the snub of Joe Lo Truglio, whose Detective Charles Boyle is one of the most absurd, hilarious characters on television.
Outstanding Supporting Actor for a Drama Series
David Harbour, Stranger Things ("Chapter Four: Will The Wise")
Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid's Tale ("First Blood")
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland ("Chapter Four: Commit....to YOU")
Matt Smith, The Crown ("Mystery Man")
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game Of Thrones ("The Spoils of War")
Peter Dinklage, Game Of Thrones ("The Dragon and the Wolf")
Will Win: David Harbour
Could Win: Peter Dinklage OR Matt Smith
I'll Be Rooting For: David Harbour
Should Have Been Here: Noah Emmerich, The Americans
Pundits seem pretty agreed on one thing: Mandy Patinkin won't win this year. Sorry, Inigo Montoya. Other than that, predictions have foretold victories from any of the other 5 nominees, with the majority agreeing Stranger Things' David Harbour will win the prize he was expected to take home last year. No complaints from me; I know his is the only nominated performance I've watched, so I'm biased, but Chief Hopper is one of the most consistently interesting characters of that show.
Shed several tears here for Noah Emmerich, though. His lack of nomination, not just this year but any year, for his portrayal of Stan Beeman on The Americans is absolutely astounding. His no-nonsense, usually-calm demeanor was underlaid beautifully with a growing sadness, and that helped drive the show's story as much as anything. Watch the famous parking garage scene from the finale again and tell me the man doesn't deserve to win the Emmy.
Chief Hopper might be winning one for Hawkins, Indiana this year. No word on whether he'll lock it away with Eleven.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Comedy Series
Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live ("Chadwick Boseman/Cardi B")
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Doink")
Betty Gilpin, GLOW ("Debbie Does Something")
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live ("Bill Hader/Arcade Fire")
Laurie Metcalf, Roseanne ("No Country For Old Women")
Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live ("Donald Glover/Childish Gambino")
Megan Mullaly, Will & Grace ("Rosario's Quinceañera")
Zazie Beetz, Atlanta ("Helen")
Will Win: Alex Borstein
Could Win: Kate McKinnon OR Laurie Metcalf
I'll Be Rooting For: Kate McKinnon
Should Have Been Here: Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live
Another stacked category, this field stars a whopping eight (EIGHT!!) nominees. Projections are split on whether McKinnon will make it a 3-peat with another win this year, or whether Borstein (formerly of Family Guy fame) will continue the Mrs. Maisel momentum. I think ultimately McKinnon's recent victories, as well as her two nominated castmates, might work against her. I will be cheering for her, though; my love of SNL would render me delighted with a win for any of the nominated cast members, but admittedly, Kate is head-and-shoulders the most versatile, wildly talented nominee of the whole bunch (case in point: her political impersonations alone range from Hillary Clinton to Jeff Sessions, to Betsy DeVos, to Rudy Giuliano). While we're on the topic of SNL, though, how ridiculous is it that Cecily Strong is yet to be nominated for this award? Ms. Strong is perhaps not as consistently ridiculous as McKinnon, but the variety of her characters display an impressive level of versatility and quite simply, some really phenomenal acting, both comedic and dramatic. She carries more of the show's weight than I think anyone gives her credit for.
Outstanding Supporting Actress for a Drama Series
Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid's Tale ("Unwomen")
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid's Tale ("June")
Lena Headey, Game Of Thrones ("The Dragon and the Wolf")
Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things ("Chapter Three: The Pollywog")
Thandie Newton, Westworld ("Akane no Mai")
Vanessa Kirby, The Crown ("Beryl")
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid's Tale ("Women's Work")
Will Win: Yvonne Strahovski
Could Win: Ann Dowd OR Thandie Newton
I'll Be Rooting For: Millie Bobby Brown
Should Have Been Here: Susan Kelechi Watson, This Is Us
I'm just going to get this out of the way: Stranger Things is the only of these Dramas I've been able to watch, so I can't give the fairest assessment here. But truly, Millie Bobby Brown deserves any plaudits possible; it's not just that she's a 14-year old playing a very intense, muted character. She's also British, and is playing a very intense, (kind of) American child. That being said, it will likely be a Handmaid's Tale victory again here, and given that Dowd won the award last year, I'll predict Strahovski takes it. Also, for as much as everyone, myself especially, claims that "Randall and Beth are the best part of This Is Us, I can't help but wonder why Sterling K. Brown keeps popping up on the awards circuit, but not the magnificent Susan Kelechi Watson?
Outstanding Actor for a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish ("Advance To Go (Collect $200)")
Bill Hader, Barry ("Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast, and Keep Going")
Donald Glover, Atlanta ("Teddy Perkins")
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm ("Fatwa!")
Ted Danson, The Good Place ("Dance Dance Resolution")
William H. Macy, Shameless ("Sleepwalking")
Will Win: Bill Hader
Could Win: Donald Glover OR Ted Danson
I'll Be Rooting For: Any of the above
Should Have Been Here: Eugene Levy, Schitt's Creek
Though this is yet another loaded field, most indications are that it's a 3-horse race between last year's winner Glover and debutantes Hader and Danson. Given my undying love for all things Donald Glover/Childish Gambino and ESPECIALLY all things Bill Hader, I would be thrilled for either of those guys. Yet, I have to admit, I am likely cheering the hardest (by a hair) for Ted Danson, whose Michael is one of the most delightful parts of a simply terrific show.
Outstanding Actor for a Drama Series
Ed Harris, Westworld ("Vanishing Point")
Jason Bateman, Ozark ("The Toll")
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld ("The Passenger")
Matthew Rhys, The Americans ("START")
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us ("The Car")
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us ("Number Three")
Will Win: Sterling K. Brown
Could Win: Matthew Rhys OR Jeffrey Wright
I'll Be Rooting For: Matthew Rhys
Should Have Been Here: Noah Schnapp, Stranger Things
A few may feel as if it's time for Jeffrey Wright's impressive work in Westworld to get top honors, and they're not necessarily wrong. Yet, it appears this Drama Actor race will be a head-to-head showdown between defending champion Sterling K. Brown and Matthew Rhys, who faces his last chance to win for one-half of the titular Americans couple. I love Sterling K. Brown, and Randall is certainly one of This Is Us's brightest spots, but I will fight to the death for Rhys to win this award this year. The Welshman, playing a Russian pretending to be an American, has deserved it at least the last 3 years (if not all 5), but arguably deserves it MORE now. Let alone the fact that it's the last chance to award Phillip Jennings, Rhys was also just at his best in Season 6. I have already sung the praises of the episode he's nominated for, but it's worth specifically singling out his performance in it. His delivery of the climactic line "We had a job to do" will, I think, be in the annals of television history. But, my gut instinct is that the program (and the actor) with the far bigger following will win out in this case.
In addition, though it's a moot point because I would go berserk if anyone but Rhys won this award, it's worth recognizing young Noah Schnapp for his role in Stranger Things. Will's disappearance in Season 1 relegated Schnapp to supporting (almost "guest") status last year, but in Season 2, with his character more at the forefront, the actor displayed incredible emotional depth and skill.
Outstanding Actress for a Comedy Series
Allison Janney, Mom ("Phone Confetti and A Wee Dingle")
Issa Rae, Insecure ("Hella Great")
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie ("The Home")
Pamela Adlon, Better Things ("Eulogy")
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Thank You and Good Night")
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish ("Elder. Scam.")
Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan
Could Win: Tracee Ellis Ross OR Allison Janney
I'll Be Rooting For: Tracee Ellis Ross
Should Have Been Here: Catherine O'Hara, Schitt's Creek
A new low for me in this piece: I've seen NONE of these nominated shows. Whoops. What I do know: I love Issa Rae. Tracee Ellis Ross seems like one of the most wonderful people in the World. I loved Allison Janney and Lily Tomlin in West Wing. And there is no way anyone but Rachel Brosnahan wins this year.
Someone who absolutely should have been amongst the nominated names is comedy vet Catherine O'Hara. I'm only a few episodes into Schitt's Creek, but it is already apparent that, though the whole show is hysterical, O'Hara's Moira Rose is the absolute best (and by that, we mean the worst).
It figures to be a big night all around for Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, with leading lady Brosnahan almost surely taking top honors
Outstanding Actress for a Drama Series
Claire Foy, The Crown ("Dear Mrs. Kennedy")
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale ("The Last Ceremony")
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld ("Reunion")
Keri Russell, The Americans ("The Summit")
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve ("I Have A Thing About Bathrooms")
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black ("To Right The Wrongs Of Many")
Will Win: Elisabeth Moss
Could Win: Sandra Oh OR Keri Russell
I'll Be Rooting For: Keri Russell
Should Have Been Here: Emilia Clarke, Game Of Thrones
Of all the nominees up for a repeat this year, the most likely to complete the feat appears to be Elisabeth Moss. Though I still know her as Zooey Bartlett, by all accounts she's an absolute force in Handmaid's Tale, which seems poised for another slew of major awards. Don't sleep on Sandra Oh, though, who wowed critics in the very first season of Killing Eve, and whose victory would be a major moment for Asian-Americans. And still others forecast a chance at full redemption for The Americans, with Russell and Rhys both getting their long-deserved awards. I haven't been as consistently sold on the actress's Elizabeth Jennins as I was with Rhys, but it's an amazingly complex role, and in Season 6 in particular, as her character reached her physical and emotional breaking point, Russell earned all the praise in the World.
GENERAL
Outstanding Variety Talk Series
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Will Win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Could Win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert OR Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
I'll Be Rooting For: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Should Have Been Here: The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
This may be the only category of the night where I just really like every nominee a lot. It's hard to be too frustrated with any winner, as every show and each host is marvelous in their own respective ways. As I am not a fan of dynasties, however, it'd be nice to see to see someone other than John Oliver win this year. Preferably Stephen Colbert, who is all at once my celebrity man-crush, my spirit animal, and my sage.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Atlanta (FX)
Barry (HBO)
Black-ish (ABC)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
GLOW (Netflix)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Silicon Valley (HBO)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Will Win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Could Win: Atlanta OR Barry
I'll Be Rooting For: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Should Have Been Here: The Good Place
Much as the Comedy acting fields indicate, most project the Comedy Series race to come down to Atlanta, Barry, and Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. It's the first year in some time that won't be dominated by Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Veep, and perhaps it's just the continuity of the strong female lead, but I expect Mrs. Maisel to have a Veep-level haul of awards tomorrow night. Subjectively, I hope that isn't the case. I don't have anything against the show. (How can I? Critics love it, and I haven't seen it.) But, when the field also consists of Bill Hader's work, Donald Glover's work, underrated Silicon Valley and under-appreciated Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, it'd be a tough pill to swallow to not see one of those four win.
Almost as tough a pill to swallow, that is, as it is seeing The Good Place SNUBBED AGAIN. Emmys, for real, what are you doing? This is one of, if not the most, original and engaging comedies on television right now, and Michael Schur deserves to be heralded as King Yuk-Yuks.
Outstanding Drama Series
The Americans (FX)
The Crown (Netflix)
Game Of Thrones (HBO)
The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
This Is Us (NBC)
Westworld (HBO)
Will Win: The Handmaid's Tale
Could Win: The Americans OR Game Of Thrones
I'll Be Rooting For: The Americans
Should Have Been Here: Jane The Virgin
Before I get to the actual field, it's important for me to proclaim how much of a travesty it is that the most exhilarating season yet of Jane The Virgin was blanked on the Emmy nominations. Sure, by modern Drama standards, the show is probably more of a Comedy, but make no mistake, Season Four was DRAMATIC, and in incredibly surprising and fresh ways. It may not be as bleak or gritty as other Drama nominees, but JTV deserved more than it got.
Now in terms of the nominees that were invited, what is usually considered the biggest award of the night also provides one of the most entertaining races of the night. Game Of Thrones has been nominated for Best Drama every year of its existence, and won the two before last year, when it was in between seasons and thus, not a viable nominee. But Handmaid's Tale beat all comers last year in GOT's absence, and its follow-up season is even bigger and award-ready. Then, there's the small, but insistent (and wishful thinking?) contingent that are convinced this is the year The Americans FINALLY get their big prize. There is precedent: Jon Hamm didn't win Outstanding Actor for his portrayal of Don Draper until Mad Men's final season. Breaking Bad didn't get top honors until its farewell. And yet, as much as I want it to be true, I just can't see The Americans breaking through this year, after spending so many years not even being nominated by the Academy. I find it hard to believe anything but Handmaid's Tale will dominate proceedings once more. I hope against hope that I'm proven wrong, however.
You have a job to do, Emmys. You have a job to do. Make The Americans tomorrow's Kremlin.