Who Will Win The Golden Ball?

For a footballer, second to the jubilation of winning the World Cup is earning the Golden Ball, a trophy awarded to to the best player at the Cup and one of the most esteemed individual awards one can achieve. Sure, the FIFA Ballon d’Or, awarded annually to the best footballer in the world, is oft sought after, but given the prestige and the relative infrequency of the World Cup, the Golden Ball is arguably a more precious title.

In most years, the Golden Ball winner has become evident throughout the knockout stages of the tournament. In 2002, for example, German keeper Oliver Kahn was not only the best goalie in but clearly the star of the tournament. In 2006 and 2010, stunning resurgences from veterans Zinedine Zidane (France) and Diego Forlán (Uruguay) were undoubtedly the lead stories of their respective Cups.

The 2018 edition, marvelous as it has been, has not had quite the same storyline as those forerunners in terms of individual performances, so the Golden Ball race is almost as intriguing as the race for the Cup itself. This might very well lead to a similar situation as the 2014 Golden Ball sweepstakes, which saw a “surprise” winner in Lionel Messi, amidst a field that had no clear favorite.

It’s hard to call the World’s best player a surprise winner, particularly when he scored 4 goals and played in the World Cup Final, but many felt as if his lack of knockout stage goals would be enough to concede the award to the Netherlands’ Arjen Robben, or Colombia’s young James Rodriguez, who was the closest thing to a breakout star of that tournament. The case for Rodriguez was hampered by the fact that his side were eliminated in the quarterfinals, which brings me to the central point: this year’s winner will almost surely come from the 4 nations that reached the semifinals.

In the 20 World Cups played, every Golden Ball winner has come from a team that reached at least the semifinal stage (and in all cases but 3, from a team that reached the Final). With that in mind, here is who I presume are on the Golden Ball shortlist from each of the final four.

France: Kylian Mbappé, F

Mbappé is probably the ‘star’ of this tournament, in that he’s been the most buzzworthy name. He’s been a star more in the vein of 2014 Rodriguez than prior winners: a young talent capturing the joy, energy and imagination of viewers rather than a wily vet who’s willed his sides to victory. The 19-year old Mbappé was already a crowd favorite coming in to Russia, thanks to his scintillating performances for both AS Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain. Solid throughout for France, he’s really broken out on the scene with his sheer dominance against Argentina and Belgium. In the Round of 16 match, he scored a brace against the hapless Argentines, and set up the first goal of the game (a penalty) with his scorching run past the defense. Versus Belgium the other day, he may not have gotten in the scoresheet, but was undoubtedly the best player on the field, pulling all the strings in attack for Les Bleus. Ironically enough, his case might be hampered if his side win the title. If they take the top prize, and with Mbappé surely winning Best Young Player, FIFA may want to avoid jeopardizing awards, and spread the wealth.

Belgium: Eden Hazard, AM

For as much talent as Belgium have, they haven’t had too many signature performances from any one player. Coming into the tournament, many thought midfielder Kevin De Bruyne was a legitimate candidate, given his remarkable season at Manchester City, but he’s had a fairly disappointing tournament, by his standards. After the Red Devils’ first couple matches, big striker Romelu Lukaku made his case, scoring 4 goals and commanding their attack. However, apart from a terrific dummy to set up Belgium’s game-winner against Japan, he’s been frustratingly absent in the knockout stages. The one player amidst the many stars on their lineup that has been consistently dangerous is Chelsea’s Eden Hazard. The diminutive attacker has scored a couple goals and assisted several more, and even when he isn’t in the stat sheet, his wizardry was the biggest difference during Belgium’s semifinal run, providing a next level moving forward. Indeed, had it not been for his play against France, the Belgians likely would not have come as close to forcing extra time as they did.

Croatia: Luka Modrić, CM

Modrić has been one of the few players who was the clear star of their team coming into the tournament and has not been a disappointment in some fashion. In fact, he’s directed and managed his side expertly, holding down a talented midfield that has seen somewhat underwhelming performances from Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitić and Inter’s Marcelo Brozović. Luka scored a crucial penalty in their opening win over Nigeria, and added one of the goals of the tournament in their blowout of Argentina. But beyond simply scoring, it’s been his control in the middle of the park and his passes that unlock Croatia’s attack that have been the largest influence on their play. Croatia has made a magnificent run to the Final on the back of team grit and great defensive play, but it is difficult to imagine them making it to this point without the performance of their star midfielder.

England: Harry Kane, ST

Sadly, it is not “coming home” for England, as was the mantra throughout their deep run in this tournament. Though their dream ended in extra time yesterday at the hands of Croatia, the Three Lions drew massive support and dared millions of pessimistic Brits to dream a World Cup quest possible. At the forefront of it all was talismanic striker Harry Kane. The young Tottenham star is the Lions’ captain, and though their run was a total team effort (and largely thanks to solid defending and set piece mastery), no one player was the face or story of their side more so than Kane. Thanks to three coolly converted penalties and three other early goals, he is the leader and likely winner of the Golden Boot— given to the tournament’s top scorer —but his influence goes beyond scoring goals. There is the emotional pressure of being the figurehead of an oft-disappointing England side, which Kane has manage with aplomb. In addition, his distributing, organization and man-marking in defense has surpassed nearly all other goalscoring strikers in this tournament. Unfortunately, an almost-absent performance in yesterday’s loss likely sullied his chances at taking the Golden Ball, but given his popularity and another chance to make an impression in Saturday’s 3rd-Place match, who knows?

Wild Card: N'Golo Kante, CM (France)

Though the aforementioned Lukaku, Croatia’s Domagoj Vida, and England’s Jordan Pickford all warrant consideration, the only semifinal side with multiple legitimate candidates for the Ballon d’Or is title favorites France. I still think Mbappé is the most likely from the French side to take top honors, but will not be surprised if one of their center-backs, keeper Hugo Lloris, or especially this midfielder, find themselves on the podium. Kante is one of the least-noticed stars in football, but he is undoubtedly a star. He pulled most of the strings for Leicester City’s magical Premier League title in 2015-16, then replicated that terrific form in a Euro Cup 2nd-place finish for France, and the following season with league winners Chelsea, a year in which he won the PFA Player of the Year. He’s been back to his subtle midfield prowess in this tournament, turning in the kinds of performances that only the trained football eye can recognize as brilliant. He’s been bested possibly only by Modrić in his midfield control, and has as usual been magnificent support in marking and defense for France as well. Given the precedent set in his domestic awards, don’t be surprised to see Kante take top honors here as well.

Prediction

Golden Ball: Luka Modrić (CRO)

Silver Ball: Kylian Mbappé (FRA)

Bronze Ball: N'Golo Kante (FRA)

This projection is based on the belief that France will beat Croatia, though I’m not sure the alternative result would affect my prediction. If Les Bleus take top honors, I have to imagine Modrić’s performance will be seen as the individual story of the tournament, and in FIFA’s eyes, a Golden Ball would be a sufficient consolation prize. I’m not sure the performances of Hazard, Kane, or anyone else would be enough to keep the French off the remaining two spots, though. In addition, I think Kante has been marvelous, but perhaps a little too subtle in his marvel to best the flashy, eye-popping performances of his teammate Mbappé.