Re-Seeding the Sweet 16
They may not have reached the Sweet 16, but 16th-seeded UMBC made sure they were #1 in our hearts.
Well. That was something.
I suppose we should have expected the tournament to progress this way-- after all, why wouldn't one of the craziest seasons of college basketball ever have one of the maddest starts to March in history?
Still, what has actually transpired is nothing short of stunning. Two 1-seeds, two 2-seeds, two 3-seeds, and one 4-seed survived to the second weekend of play. If you're keeping track, that means 9 of the Top 16 seeds have fallen prey to the upset bug. Those 9 include:
#1 Xavier blowing a double-digit lead multiple times to lose to 9th-seeded Florida State, who got their first lead of the 2nd half with one minute remainining
#2 Cincinnati blowing a 22-point lead with 11 minutes remaining in an upset by #7 Nevada (what is it with basketball teams from Cincinnati?!)
Defending national champions/the team of the gods/2-seed North Carolina getting their doors blown off by #7 Texas A&M (I DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT IT)
#3 Tennessee losing to #11 Loyola of Chicago on a last-second shot (Loyola's 2nd buzzer beater of the tournament)
#3 Michigan State getting completely swamped by 11th-seeded Syracuse
#4 and trendy Final Four pick Arizona getting blown out by #13 Buffalo in the first round
#4 and trendy upset pick Wichita State losing to 13th-seeded Marshall
4-seed and SEC Champions Auburn getting beat by 30 points by #5 Clemson
Oh, and of course, there was this: a #16 team felling a #1 seed for the first time in history. And not just felling, OBLITERATING. And not just any 1-seed, the OVERALL #1 TEAM IN THE TOURNAMENT. This was, quite possibly, one of the biggest upsets in American sports history. UMBC is America's Leicester.
And believe it or not, all of this maybe describes 75% of the tournament's craziness thus far. I kid you not, it's a madhouse out there. Stay safe.
Anyways, with the Sweet 16 kicking off on Thursday night, here's an attempt at re-seeding all 16 teams as if their seasons transpired entirely in March. Considering everything's insane, nothing makes sense any more, and all these teams are essentially 2-0, it won't be easy. That being said, yes, I'm aware my last attempt at something like this resulted in me putting Virginia and North Carolina as 1-seeds, so what do I know?
All this to say, here's my fittingly futile attempt at ranking the Sweet 16:
1-SEEDS
Villanova ((1), 2nd overall)
With Virginia's shock loss, Nova is staking their claim as the true team to beat in this tournament. Of course, so far it's only been a 16-seed and an 8-seed, but the Wildcats have been completely dominant, in a way that's reminiscent of their title run 2 years ago. Two more points for emphasis: not only did they avoid their typical first-weekend flameout, they also completely stifled a sneakily talented Alabama team.
Duke (2)
Iona and Rhode Island is far from a world-beating opening slew of opponents, but Duke's play in those two games have confirmed my/America's worst fears: that the Blue Devils are actually playing up to their ridiculous talent level and are a genuine threat to win the whole thing.
Texas A&M (7)
You'd be hard-pressed to find any team that had a more impressive opening weekend than the Aggies. Many (including yours truly) thought they'd be susceptible to an opening-round upset at the hands of a pesky Providence team, but A&M controlled proceedings for most of the 2nd half in a tight win. Then, as mentioned earlier, took the lead 10 minutes into their game with North Carolina and never looked back, destroying the Heels in the paint and from behind the 3-point line.
Purdue (2)
Purdue is always a spotty tournament team, and their close win over Butler, in which they struggled to put their local rivals away multiple times, likely was not reassuring that things would be different this time around. But, posting such a dominant victory in their opening game and toughing out such a tight one against a good team in the 2nd is impressive enough, before you even consider they did so without injured star Center, Isaac Haas.
2-SEEDS
Clemson (5)
'How do you like me now?', says Clemson and coach Brad Brownell. The Tigers have been exceeding expectations all year, and that has certainly been the case thus far here. Many were pegging New Mexico State as a solid 1st-round upset pick, but Clemson held off the Aggies for virtually the entire game. Then, in a 4/5 matchup of two football rivals with the team name Tigers, Clemson absolutely demolished favored Auburn start-to-finish. They led 43-19 at halftime. In the words of the great Michael Scott, "this time, maybe we should estimate [Clemson]."
Florida State (9)
How about these Tier 2 ACC teams? The top brass of the conference have suffered humiliating exits, but the aforementioned Tigers, as well as Florida State, are demonstrating some of the most impressive play of the tournament. The 'Noles, who themselves are often tournament disappointments, smothered Missouri in the first round, Michael Porter Jr. and all. They followed that up by upsetting top seed Xavier in the next round, a game in which they trailed nearly the whole way, but kept within striking distance. When it mattered most, they struck.
Loyola-Chicago (11)
You can make arguments against one of the best Cinderella stories. Sure, Miami was without an injured star. Sure, Tennessee was always a toss-up on whether they could actually go the distance. Sure, 2 buzzer-beaters doesn't necessarily indicate that Loyola has staying power. But that doesn't change the fact that they've taken down a favored 6 seed and a favored 3 seed. What's more, it's no fluke. The Ramblers dominated the Missouri Valley this year, and had one of the better records in the country. Don't be shocked if Cinderella dances all the way to the Final Four, in this wide open bracket.
West Virginia (2)
In keeping with the theme of 2018's Sweet 16, West Virginia is yet another team who often underachieves in the postseason. And while it's true that many teams would kill to open tournament play with a 12 seed and a 13 seed, it's doubtful that many teams would put on as dominant a display in both games as the Mountaineers did.
3-SEEDS
Nevada (7)
Nevada has to be the most fascinating team in the tournament thus far. They trailed by 14 against Texas, and came back to win. They trailed by 22 against Cincinnati and came back to win. They have a coach who screams for 40 minutes and runs into the locker room with his shirt off. They've certainly provided the bulk of March's entertainment, but the question is, which Wolfpack team will ultimately prevail? The one that is overmatched for the first 30 minutes of the game, or the one that dominates the last 10 minutes of regulation?
Syracuse (11)
With what is technically a 3-0 record in the tournament, thanks to being the last at-large team in the field, Syracuse has felled 3 solid opponents basically the same way. A nauseatingly effective zone defense, and enough offensive firepower from Battle and Brissett to push the Orange to victory. Their play hasn't been dominant, but beating a popular national champion pick in their home state is one way to make people take you seriously. Can the wild ride continue against Duke?
Kansas ((1), 3rd overall)
Kansas' tournament performance typically is....well, see Villanova, Arizona, Virginia, West Virginia, etc. This, plus the surprisingly good quality of the Ivy League champions led many (including my older brother (#familyshoutout)) to predict Penn over Kansas as the first 16 over 1 upset in history. For about 30 minutes of game time, that pick looked prescient. The Jayhawks eventually got the game under control. Same went for their next matchup against a talented Seton Hall, though it took significantly longer for them to put that one out of reach. Kansas remains one of the most talented teams in the tournament, but their play will have to kick up a gear if they expect to get past Clemson, Duke, Villanova, etc.
Kentucky (5)
All of a sudden, Kentucky is becoming the odds-on favorite to play in the National Championship, thanks to a bracket that has lost its Top 4 seeds, and a West bracket beneath it that has lost its Top 2. The Wildcats' ridiculous talent was indeed on full display against a tricky Buffalo team in the Round of 32. But, one need only look at their opening-round game against 12th-seeded Davidson to see that the same things that made Kentucky susceptible to upsets in the regular season are still present in the postseason.
4-SEEDS
Gonzaga (4)
Full disclosure: I am no fan of Gonzaga in this tournament. I don't think they're a genuine threat to make any noise, and never have. I was nearly proven right when UNC-Greensboro (led by Tar Heel alum Wes Miller) nearly came back to beat the Bulldogs in Round 1, and when Ohio State rallied from a 14-point halftime deficit to give Gonzaga quite the scare in Round 2. That being said, the Zags have survived so far, and like Kentucky, have a bracket that's anyone's ball game.
Michigan (3)
Speaking of that West bracket: Michigan is the new top seed and favorite to progress out of Los Angeles into the Final Four. The Wolverines were a perplexing case all season: they rarely looked particularly good, but kept winning big games, including the entire Big Ten tourney. That has very much proven true in the tournament, where they have arguably been outplayed for 3 of 4 halves, yet find themselves in the Sweet 16. Houston is a tough team, no doubt, but the fact that they needed two missed free throws and a miracle 3-pointer to beat them can't make Michigan fans feel overly confident about progressing further. Then again....just win, baby. It's their mantra at this point.
Texas Tech (3)
You can't help but admire Texas Tech. They've had skeptics all season. Many (including me, whoops) picked them getting upset by a 14-seed in the first round. Their star player is playing hobbled. Yet, they keep eking out tough victories, dominating the last 5 minutes against both Stephen F. Austin and Florida in two come-from-behind wins. Even if they upset Purdue (which is very possible), the way they've played in the first 35 minutes of each game renders the Red Raiders unlikely to topple the winner of Villanova-West Virginia. But at this rate, doubt them at your own risk.
Kansas State (9)
In all fairness to the Wildcats, not only is a Sweet 16 berth from this season a great accomplishment, they also had one of the better 1st-round victories of this bunch, overpowering a good Creighton team by 10 points. It's what they followed that up with that has made many doubtful K-State can best Kentucky on Thursday. Their game against UMBC, in which they were the first team ever to play a 16-seed in the 2nd round, was supposed to be the cakewalk of all cakewalks. Yet, despite vastly superior talent and a suffocating defense that held their opponents without a field goal for 10 minutes, the Wildcats couldn't put away their overmatched opponents until about the last 80 seconds of regulation. They'll have to be 200% more effective on offense to keep their run going.
HONORARY 4-SEED
UMBC ((16), #68 overall)
Beaten: #1 Virginia by 20
It's true, UMBC fell just short of the Sweet 16. But if we're being honest, don't the Retrievers deserve a berth as much as anyone? They made history in the most incredible, mind-blowing, unbelievable fashion. And then almost went one step further and won again-- but alas, their legs gave out in the waning minutes against Kansas State. Still, UMBC has provided basketball fans everywhere with a thrill unlikely to be replicated any time soon.
Updated Final Four Picks:
Loyola-Chicago (South)
Texas A&M (West)
Villanova (East)
Duke (Midwest)