Best Bets: March Madness Edition
March is one of the best months of the year for sports betting, so Best Bets is back to preview the tournament before the madness begins! Whether you just submit a bracket to the office pool every year or bet on every game, I’m here to break down the best advantages for bettors, starting with futures (all odds courtesy of The Action Network as of March 12, 2018).
Futures
There are three teams with the shortest odds to win the title as of now: Villanova, Virginia, and Duke, all with +600 odds. Typically, it’s best to look for longer odds with a team that’s generally undervalued, but both Virginia and Villanova provide value here. The pack-line defense employed by Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers has been lauded for years, but Virginia has executed it well enough to hold opponents to a .437 effective field goal percentage on the way to a number one overall seed in the tournament. While Virginia has always been proficient on defense under the Bennett regime, the Cavaliers also have an efficient offense this season that commits the fewest turnovers in the country and shoots three-pointers effectively. In previous tournaments, teams could plan around Virginia’s schematic weaknesses to beat them, but this season, the Cavaliers are so balanced and execute their system so well that this could finally be their year. Villanova, on the other hand, has the best offense in the nation by far. The Wildcats rank first in the country in offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and second in effective field goal percentage at .597. Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges have been efficient as they’ve led the ‘Cats on offense this season and both are potential first round selections in the upcoming NBA Draft. Whereas Virginia executes well enough to win the championship without having to grind out close games, Villanova can excel in situations where they need to score on a single possession with time winding down. The Wildcats are the best choice to win the tournament for bracket pools and they’re worth a bet as well.
Although the favorites are in a class of their own this year, there is one team that appears to be undervalued by the current odds. Although Cincinnati could potentially play Virginia in the regional final, they’re worth a flyer at +2000 odds. They’ve played like a top five team all year behind a stifling defense that can create turnovers and has held opponents to a .428 effective field goal percentage, even better than Virginia. Their region presents a relatively favorable path to San Antonio: Tennessee, their potential Sweet 16 opponent, is the weakest 3-seed in the tournament, and Virginia, their potential Elite 8 opponent, could likely play into Cincinnati’s chaotic, slow-paced slugfest ideal with the pace associated with the pack-line defense. The Bearcats also have a future first-round pick of their own in Jacob Evans that can create scoring opportunities in tight games.
Amongst the favorites to win the tournament, there is one team that bettors should avoid. My beloved Michigan Wolverines are sitting at +1200 odds to win the title, and although they’ve been placed in the easiest region on the bracket, they’re overvalued at this number. John Beilein’s offensive scheme is arguably the best in the country and represents the closest college equivalent of the pace-and-space offense that has become prevalent in the NBA. However, the Wolverines have one glaring weakness, especially when it comes to close games: free throws. Opponents’ desperation plans have a higher likelihood of keeping them in the game down the stretch when it becomes time to foul Michigan’s guards. Although Michigan has been hot as of late, beating both Michigan State and Purdue on its way to the Big Ten Championship, their free throw issues and lack of firepower makes them a stay-away team due to the steep betting price.
As far as bracket selections go, Duke and North Carolina are the two best selections along with Villanova and Virginia to reach the Final Four. Although Duke has a difficult potential Sweet 16 against the best 3-seed in the tournament, Michigan State, their NBA-level talent can guide them through a region that has no other lasting threats besides the Spartans. North Carolina plays in the easiest region (as I mentioned earlier), and although they’ll likely have to go through Michigan and either Gonzaga or Xavier (Gonzaga is a great late-round upset pick over Xavier), they have the experience from their championship run last season.
Futures worth considering: Villanova (+600), Virginia (+600), Cincinnati (+2000)
Final Four picks: Villanova, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina
First-Round Games
(5) Clemson vs. (12) New Mexico State (+5)
New Mexico State presents a solid upset choice against the Tigers in the Midwest region. Clemson lost one of their best players in Donte Grantham earlier this season to an ACL injury and as a result have had limited depth in the frontcourt. That doesn’t bode well for the Tigers’ first-round matchup, as the Aggies can drive inside and exploit this weakness. New Mexico State also has one of the most efficient defenses in the country, ranking alongside Virginia and Cincinnati in defensive rating. Clemson is still the better team, but they’ll likely have their hands full in their first tournament game.
Pick: New Mexico State + 5
(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Butler (-1.5)
It’s not often that the underdog in seed is the favorite in the spread, but that’s the case in this game for the Butler Bulldogs. The bookmakers are on to something though, as Butler’s Kelan Martin will have a massive advantage against Arkansas’ subpar defense. Martin averages 21.2 points per game and has been unstoppable this season, even against Butler’s best opponents. On the other hand, Arkansas is one of the worst defensive teams in the power conferences this season, and that problem is compounded with their inability to stop their opponents from getting second-chance points on offensive rebounds (Arkansas concedes about 10 offensive boards per game).
Pick: Butler -1.5
(7) Rhode Island vs. (10) Oklahoma (+1.5)
Although Trae Young started the season on an amazing run, he and the Sooners have since fallen off the wagon, losing 11 of their last 15 games. The Sooners' offense has been one-dimensional, as Young does most of the shot-creating through his passing and scoring abilities. Unfortunately for Sooner fans, Oklahoma has Rhode Island in the first round, which ranks highly in forced turnovers. Trae Young happens to lead the nation in turnovers per game, although this is partly because he controls the ball so much as a part of the Oklahoma offense. The Rams will score points in transition from their turnover prowess, giving them the upper hand against arguably of the country’s best players.
Pick: Rhode Island -1.5
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Kansas State (+1)
This game has “sharp money” written all over it. Creighton started out as a 1.5-point favorite, but the spread is down to 1, and it looks to fall even more as money comes in on the Wildcats (the Westgate Sportsbook in Las Vegas has this game as a pick ‘em). This is likely due to the matchup of the faster-paced Creighton offense that leans on three-pointers against the slower-paced Kansas State that forces 14 turnovers per game. Creighton is relatively careful with the ball, but if they can’t execute their game plan and fall victim to Kansas State’s slow, physical style, the Blue Jays will have a challenging time getting out of the first round.
Pick: Kansas State +1
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Wright State (+13)
Tennessee has a tough draw in the first round against an underdog that plays good interior defense. Wright State limits opponents to just 45.6% shooting inside the three-point line, which is where most of Tennessee’s shots come from. The Raiders will make Tennessee uncomfortable on offense, staying close throughout a slower paced game. The Volunteers will still likely win this game, but they’ll need to adjust on offense to put away Wright State. Although Tennessee doesn’t rely on the three-pointer, they can still shoot effectively (38.4%), which could be the difference in this game. However, look for the Raiders to slow the pace and push the Volunteers outside their comfort zone.
Pick: Wright State +13
BONUS
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Despite the NCAA tournament getting most of the buzz in the sports world, Tiger Woods’ second place finish at the Valspar Championship has elicited some attention for golf as well. Whether Tiger will be a good bet this weekend remains to be seen. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is played at Bay Hill in Orlando, Florida, a course that’s notorious for its number of hazards. Bay Hill is also one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour at 7,381 yards (according to Golf Advisor). Thus, bettors need to look for value in golfers that boast the total package this week. Unfortunately, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth aren’t playing this week, so we’ll have to get creative. Tiger Woods is currently favored at +600 (odds courtesy of Bovada), which shows how much the betting public is hoping for a Tiger comeback. Amongst the favorites, Tommy Fleetwood and Hideki Matsuyama provide the most value as they both rank in the top five this season in strokes gained from tee to green. When in doubt, strokes gained from tee to green is the most reliable statistic in determining a player’s current form. Fleetwood has also been especially good around the green this year (ranking 14th in strokes gained around the green), giving him an advantage amongst the numerous water hazards and bunkers. Although Matsuyama hasn’t been an aggressive scorer this year, ranking just 173rd in total birdies, he rarely bogies and a mistake-free weekend could put him amongst the leaders as well. One bet with longer odds that presents value is Luke List, who has the distance (ranked third in driving distance) and accuracy (ranked tenth in strokes gained around the green) to master Bay Hill.
Bets worth considering: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200), Hideki Matsuyama (+2200), Luke List (+7500)
Final NFL Playoff record: 7-4
Bonus record: 5-3