Best Bets: Conference Championship Edition
After a rough Thanksgiving for NFL betting, we’ve finally made it to the best week of the college football season before the bowl selections are made. I picked two college winners in Michigan and Washington last week, and to continue the streak (and because I could use a break from losing NFL bets), I am going to focus strictly on the conference championships by way of examining some strategies to exploit public perception in betting. Generally, the best value lies in games with teams misjudged by the public, and there are several trends and signals to look for, some of which can be applied this weekend (All odds courtesy of Bovada as of 11/30/2017).
Strategy: Be A Contrarian
Betting on sports is tough (let my record at the end of this column be evidence), and the sportsbooks make money from public bettors. Thus, the safe side is to bet on the teams that the oddsmakers need – the teams that are getting the fewest number of bets. Typically, the larger the discrepancy in percentage of bets, the more value there is. Obviously, this doesn’t apply to every game; it’s important to examine all the factors involved in each matchup. However, this strategy provides a good general rule for bettors. The other strategies I’ll outline will be extensions of this concept.
Game: TCU vs. Oklahoma (-7.5)
After a decisive victory in Norman against the Frogs just a few weeks ago, it’s no surprise that the Sooners are receiving over 70% of the bets in this game, according to Sports Insights. However, both TCU and Oklahoma have performed similarly against common Big 12 opponents this season. Kenny Hill uncharacteristically completed less than 50% of his passes in the loss to Oklahoma, so look for a better performance from him, as well as from the Frogs’ defense that gave up several plays of over 30 yards to the Sooners. This line is likely to go down, so bet on TCU before the spread dips below the key number of seven.
Pick: TCU +7.5
Strategy: Bet on the underdog that should be favored.
This strategy is obvious: there is value on teams that are being overlooked by oddsmakers by way of getting points in the spread. However, it’s rare to find actual scenarios like this, except when a favorite is highly overvalued by the public bettors. I’ve talked about the value of using power ratings in this column before, but it truly is the best way to evaluate the hierarchy of teams because a team’s performance is broken down on a play-by-play basis to strip away the variability of a win-loss record. Bettors can use power ratings to find scenarios like this to get value on undervalued underdogs.
Game: Stanford vs. USC (-4)
Stanford is the underdog to bet on here; they should be about a three-point favorite on a neutral site according to ESPN’s FPI. USC has a much larger fan base, making the Trojans a public team already, but it helps that they already beat the Cardinal this season. However, it is difficult to beat competitive teams twice in the same season, so Stanford will be ready come Friday night. If Stanford can get the best out of Bryce Love, they’ll have a solid chance to upset USC and take the PAC-12 title. The best value for Stanford bettors is in the money line, but those less confident wouldn’t be making a bad bet by taking the four points.
Pick: Stanford +165
Strategy: Fade the trendy underdog.
In some sense, this is a corollary to the first strategy. When a scenario occurs in which an underdog is receiving most of the bets, the best value typically lies in taking the favorite. The public believes they’ve found an underdog that should be favored, but they’re often wrong. Of course, we have the tools to be reasonably sure, but this strategy follows our general rule to fade the public side. For college games, this typically occurs when a higher ranked team is the underdog; this occurs in one of the championship games this Saturday.
Game: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (+6)
I’ve written about Ohio State before because I believe that the Buckeyes are one of the very best teams in the country. However, they’ve had an inconsistent season, including one glaring loss to Iowa that could keep them out of the playoff. The public is all over Wisconsin this game due to the seeming unpredictability of this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes rank first in S&P+ and second in FPI and have multiple players that will likely start on NFL teams next season. They have wins over the Big Ten’s best, including Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State, whereas the Badgers have only played (albeit beaten) the Wolverines. If the spread stays under seven points, Ohio State remains the best value of the championship favorites this weekend.
Pick: Ohio State -6
BONUS
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Saturday night’s card in Detroit now features a featherweight title rematch from UFC 212 after Frankie Edgar pulled out with an injury. In the first fight, Jose Aldo was knocked out in the third round for only the second time in his illustrious career, the first being at the hands of Conor McGregor. Neither Holloway nor Aldo spend much time on the ground during their fights, and both are amongst the best strikers in the featherweight division. Max Holloway has the advantage in volume and pace, with a strike ratio of 1.1. However, Jose Aldo is the better defender as he has a better head strike defense percentage (83% to 78%) than Holloway and can take advantage with counter punches (all statistics courtesy of Reed Kuhn of ESPN). The fight is unlikely to go to the ground, but Aldo also has a major advantage there, controlling the ground position against opponents 78% of the time as opposed to Holloway’s 37%. Aldo’s knockout losses have come in two of his last three fights, but his experience and versatile style give him the slight advantage as the underdog in this rematch.
Pick: Lean Jose Aldo +235
Last week: 2-3
Overall: 8-11
Bonus: 3-2