Betting Preview for the NBA Season
The NBA season is off the blocks, which means it’s time to place bets on the upcoming season, whether it’s title bets or win totals. The Warriors are once again heavy favorites to win the NBA title, but there’s still some value in the betting markets, starting with best bets for title futures:
FUTURES
Rockets 16-1
There’s not much value in betting the Warriors to win it all at -240. However, if framed in the sense of which team is the best bet to beat the Warriors in a seven-game series, the Rockets emerge as the best choice, assuming that the team that knocks off the Warriors ends up as the champion. There’s not a team in the NBA that has the defensive versatility to truly contain Golden State, so the best chance of an upset is if they were outplayed on offense, as was the case with the Cavaliers did in Game 4 of the 2017 Finals. Since 1974, the 2017 Warriors rank as the second-best team by offensive rating (an estimate of points scored per 100 possessions), only trailing the 1987 Lakers; however, the 2017 Rockets weren’t far behind at tenth (per basketball-reference.com). The Rockets are extremely efficient on offense, where the bulk of their shots are either taken from behind the three-point line or at the rim. They led the NBA in free throws per field goal attempt, so they get fouled when they get to the rim; foul trouble for the Warriors can be the difference if it means that their opponent has to try to stop one less of their stars. Houston has the league’s best backcourt with James Harden and Chris Paul, whom they acquired in a trade from the Clippers over the offseason. If they can figure out the possible kinks in the chemistry with their elite ball-handlers, the Rockets should be the second-best team in the league.
WIN TOTALS
The best way to analyze value in the win totals market is to examine a team’s record from the prior season and to project their change in wins based on their roster changes. This year’s eventful offseason saw many important players changing uniforms and, with that in mind, there are a few teams that provide substantial value for a bet on the over or under.
Clippers: over 45 wins
The Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA for the last several years, led by future Hall of Famer Chris Paul. Over the offseason, he was traded to the Rockets, leaving Los Angeles without its best player; yet, there is value on the over because of how the Clippers replaced him. The Clippers gained depth with the Chris Paul trade, starting with Patrick Beverley, who brings the same brand of elite defense at point guard that Paul played. Lou Williams will likely make up a lot of the scoring that the Clippers will miss from Paul and J.J. Redick (who signed with the Sixers), but the most overlooked addition to the team is small forward Danilo Galinari. It’s likely that the Clippers will get no more than 60 games out of him this season, but when he is on the court, he is an efficient scorer that can provide length on defense. With those three players added to the projected starting five along with Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, this team is a good bet to win more than 45 games if they can stay healthy, even in the loaded Western Conference.
Jazz: over 41 wins
Despite the losses of Gordon Hayward to the Celtics and George Hill to the Kings, the Jazz retain their anchor in Rudy Gobert, who is the best interior defender in the NBA. The Jazz allowed the least amount of points per game last year and they are projected to be one of the NBA’s defensive teams this season. The addition of Ricky Rubio will replace some of the offensive production that will be lost with the departures of Hill and Hayward, given that Rubio is one of the better passers in the NBA. Their core surrounding Rubio and Gobert is relatively young, with Derrick Favors at only age 26 and Rodney Hood soon to be 25. Utah won 51 games last season and it seems unlikely that they are ten wins worse this season: they maintain one of the league’s best defenses and add a young core likely to improve.
Celtics: under 54.5 wins
During the offseason, the Celtics formed their own version of a superteam, even if it doesn’t quite pack the punch of a traditional superteam. They added Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward to play alongside Al Horford. The Celtics won 53 games last year without the addition of their new all-stars; however, they overachieved relative to their Pythagorean win total. Furthermore, they lost their two best defensive players in Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder. Boston was 13th in defensive rating last year, so it’s likely that their defense is below average this year; they’ll have trouble defending the league’s better perimeter scorers. The last time a team with a below average defense won at least 55 games was the Rockets last season, but they had a historically great offense. Boston’s offense is good, but it’s unlikely that that will be enough to carry them over the total.
Raptors: under 48 wins
At first glance, the Raptors seem to be a team likely to contend in the Eastern Conference; they won 51 games last season (the same number as Cleveland) and every member of their core group of players returned – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, and Jonas Valanciunas. However, they lost four members of their nine-man playoff rotation in P.J. Tucker, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, and DeMarre Carroll. Thus, Toronto isn’t nearly as deep as they were last year, they could have difficulty matching up to their opponents when resting their starts, and an injury to any one of their best players could spell trouble. Even in the weak Eastern Conference, the Raptors’ depth could cost them several wins and put them amongst the middle tier instead of one of the East’s contenders.