If The Oscars Were Held Today
It feels like just last month that the curtain was falling on a wild night at the 89th Academy Awards, but in fact we're past the halfway point for the calendar year of films in contention for next year's Oscars. It is common knowledge that most of the movies vying for the grandest prizes at the premiere awards show are often released between October and December, for recency's sake. This has been perhaps even more true in the era of 8-10 nominees for Best Picture; more spots available for the biggest award of spawns more competition.
However, as my fellow Daniel pointed out last week, 2017 has had a notably incredible first 6 months of cinema. Therefore, I thought it might be worthwhile to examine the 4 major Oscar races as they stand today. To clarify, this is strictly considering the films that have been released to the public; there's no eye towards upcoming releases in this hypothetical.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow (Detroit)
Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Edgar Wright (Baby Driver)
Analysis:
Though this group of five is unlikely to have the final contenders, it would be a fascinating race. For the first time, there would be two nominated female directors, and if Bigelow were to win, a chance for the first ever female repeat winner. Christopher Nolan has long been one of the most-known directors in the business, but not until Dunkirk did the critics warm to his work as much as the public. Jordan Peele (of "Key & Peele" fame) makes the shortlist for a stunningly splendid directorial debut, and finally, Wright whose touches of music and choreography infused into his action film were strokes of genius. It's near-impossible to determine which storyline would have the most pull, but when in doubt, choose the most critically-acclaimed film. Plus, I think the Academy would love having the chance to give Nolan what many would consider is long past due.
Winner:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Is this finally the year for the divisive Nolan?
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins (Maudie)
Salma Hayek (Beatriz At Dinner)
Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled)
Diane Kruger (In The Fade)
Debra Winger (The Lovers)
Analysis:
It's tough to say whether any of these 5 will actually make the final list, as no one actress' performance has already garnered enough chatter to hold off the inevitable onslaught of Oscar contenders this fall. That being said, Hawkins and Winger both may not be household names, but are well-respected names who delighted critics by fronting their respective smaller-budget movies. Better known are Hayek and Kidman, of course, who have generated some Oscar buzz already; the former as a marginalized guest of an uncomfortable dinner, and the latter as a Confederate boarding school headmistress. Finally, Kruger's film, the German In The Fade, was released to very mixed reviews, but the actress herself won top honors at this year's Cannes Film Festival. Typically, the Oscars have a problem with awarding the young ingenues over the older, more experienced actresses, but given that this hypothetical field is exclusively all veterans, that aspect wouldn't be present. My pick of this group would go to the star of the poignant romantic-comedy film that's gotten swell reviews.
Winner:
Debra Winger, The Lovers
The 62-year old Winger may well be the frontrunner for Best Actress.
Best Actor
Woody Harrelson (The Glass Castle)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
Robert Pattinson (Good Time)
Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here)
Andy Serkis (War For The Planet Of The Apes)
Analysis:
This is perhaps the most eclectic group of Best Actor nominees you would ever see. The perpetually-snubbed Joaquin Phoenix is probably the only nominee that would be considered a 'serious' actor, and his role in the uber-serious You Were Never Really Here gave him the Best Actor award at Cannes. However much critics disliked The Glass Castle, nearly all had glowing things to say about the cast, and oft-comical Harrelson starred in a much more serious role. Nanjiani's RomCom, which is based on the true events of he and his wife's relationship, is one of the best reviewed films of the year so far, and he is equal parts hilarious and heartwarming. Robert Pattinson for Best Actor is not as farfetched as you may think, as the former Twilight vampire has gotten rave reviews for his work in Good Time. Finally, don't laugh at the idea of Andy Serkis being nominated for being a gorilla-- of course the Academy probably wouldn't let it happen. But Serkis is widely considered to be a genius, perhaps the greatest physical actor of all time, and in an impressive list of noteworthy characters, Caesar the ape might well be his defining role. Still, the Academy has to give one to Joaquin eventually, right?
Winner:
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Could Cannes Award winner Joaquin Phoenix become (at long last) Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix?
Best Picture
Baby Driver
The Beguiled
The Big Sick
Detroit
Dunkirk
Get Out
Logan
Wonder Woman
You Were Never Really Here
Analysis:
That is a solid list of nominees for any year in film, let alone a span of 6 months. To the comic book fans: it is not at all impossible that Logan and Wonder Woman earn nominations, especially the latter. The Oscars have often (and especially so after last year) been criticized for usually shutting out big-budget films and virtually always shutting out comic-book/superhero genre. Both of those movies exploded in the box office, and have intriguing storylines: the emotional sendoff of Hugh Jackman's iconic Wolverine role, and the female empowerment theme of Wonder Woman. Baby Driver is another big-budget action flick that we should not at all be surprised to see among the nominees: similar to Mad Max two years ago, the summer blockbuster delighted moviegoers and critics alike. The Big Sick and Get Out also performed well at the box office, and carry weight as they offered original, thoughtful racial and cultural themes to the genres of romantic comedy and horror/suspense, respectively. Detroit is fresh in theatres, and the acclaimed Bigelow's depiction of the famous 1967 riots could not be more timely. Of course, no Best Picture ballot would be without representation from the smaller-budget, more indie cinema, so the well-reviewed Beguiled and You Were Never Really Here garner spots here. But it is of course Dunkirk that has dominated storylines in the movie world this year. Nolan's WWII film became the film of the summer, and more than that, it's already one of the best-reviewed movies in recent years. Not only would it win these hypothetical August Oscars, don't be surprised in the least to see it take top honors next March.
Winner:
Dunkirk
Dunkirk isn't just the movie of the year so far. It's the film to beat right now for Best Picture.