2017 NBA Free Agency Preview
In the age of Twitter, the NBA has finally figured out how to draw year-round interest. After the Finals comes the draft, but immediately following that is free agency, which begins on July 1st. With a number of top tier free agents, as well as teams looking to spend money, this summer could turn out to be pretty wild. Let’s break it down.
Key Free Agents:
Stephen Curry (G - Golden State Warriors, UR)
Kevin Durant (F - Golden State Warriors, UR)
Gordon Hayward (F - Utah Jazz, UR)
Blake Griffin (F - Los Angeles Clippers, UR)
Paul Millsap (F - Atlanta Hawks, UR)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (G - Detroit Pistons, R)
Otto Porter Jr. (G/F - Washington Wizards, R)
This summer, there are quite a few players slated to make the max, or close to it. Stephen Curry will most likely receive a designated veteran contract from the Warriors in excess of $200 million, while Kevin Durant has said he intends to stay with the Warriors as well. In order for the Warriors to maintain flexibility to resign players like Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala, Durant will have to take slightly less than the max.
Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin, and Paul Millsap are the most likely candidates to change teams this summer. Hayward has been rumored to go to the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat this summer, with Griffin as the Celtic’s potential backup plan, should Hayward go elsewhere. After comments by new Atlanta GM Travis Schlenk, Paul Millsap could be headed to Minnesota, Denver, or somewhere else. Even though he’s performed extremely well the last few seasons, if the 32 year old Millsap signs a 4-year deal at the max, that contract could look ugly by year 2 or 3.
Restricted free agents Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Otto Porter Jr. are young players on the rise, but viewed as valuable wing players who probably aren’t worth the max contract offers they will most likely receive. The Pistons would most likely like to have Caldwell-Pope back, but not at the max. If they do intend to match on any max offers, it could have a significant effect on their salary cap moving forward. Look for a team like the Brooklyn Nets to sign Caldwell-Pope and Porter Jr. to an offer sheet this summer and complicate things for incumbent teams.
Saturated Market
After last Thursday’s draft, the market for point guards is much cooler than was initially thought. Rumors of Kyle Lowry going to Philadelphia are dead in the water with the drafting of Markelle Fultz, the Lakers, Kings, and Mavericks have their point guards of the future with Lonzo Ball, De’Aaron Fox, and Dennis Smith Jr. respectively. The Brooklyn Nets added D’Angelo Russell and already have Jeremy Lin, so that leaves very few teams with a need for a point guard.
With Kyle Lowry (Raptors), Jrue Holiday (Pelicans), Derrick Rose, (Knicks), George Hill (Jazz), Jeff Teague (Pacers), and Patty Mills (Spurs) as free agents who have a good chance of moving on, there is definitely a buyer's market. With plenty of options and not a lot of cap space, teams should have their pick of point guards this summer
Trades? Trades.
Even though free agency is about to happen, we still might see some trades (or sign-and-trades, as the case may be). There is a high likelihood of Paul George being moved, with the most recently rumored deal involving Cleveland and Denver, with George ending up in Cleveland, and Kevin Love in Denver.
Also look for the Hawks to try and sign-and-trade Paul Millsap in an attempt to recoup assets for their star power forward as they look to rebuild.
Fun Possibilities
Derrick Rose to the Spurs
The Spurs reportedly have interest in both Derrick Rose and Chris Paul. This could make for an interesting fit both basketball-wise and culturally. If anyone can get something more out of Derrick Rose (and not let him skip a game), Gregg Popovich is the most likely candidate. However, Rose is very ball-dominant, so putting him in a lineup with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge could prove to be a difficult proposition, but that could be mitigated with playing him more minutes to run the bench units, while allowing Tony Parker more time with the starters.
Brooklyn Makes it Rain Offer Sheets
During free agency in 2016, Brooklyn signed Blazer’s wing Allen Crabbe and Heat guard Tyler Johnson to massive offer sheets in restricted free agency, which their teams decided to match. In the case of the Nets, Crabbe’s 4-year, $75 million contract (with a surprising 15% trade bonus) was part of a glut of spending that has complicated Portland’s ability to build around their star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. To be fair, giving Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard, and Moe Harkless, players you probably haven’t heard of, a combined $151 million in guaranteed contracts didn’t help either, but Brooklyn was certainly able to complicate things for both Portland and Miami moving forward.
This summer, the Nets have a chance to do the same thing to a number of teams. As discussed earlier, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Otto Porter Jr. are certainly options, but the Nets could also try and sign Tim Hardaway Jr. away from the Hawks or Nerlens Noel from the Mavs, who will almost certainly match after trading for him before the 2017 trade deadline.
Houston Superteam
With Houston trading for Chris Paul, the Rockets could be in the market for another star. The most likely candidate would be a trade for Paul George, though making that trade work, especially without getting rid of small forward and friend of Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza, or rim-running center Clint Capela, could be very difficult. It will be interesting to see what direction Houston decides to go moving forward.
This summer is shaping up to be one of the most wild offseasons the NBA has ever seen. With deals and trades that could shape the years to come, this is one of the most exciting times of the year for NBA fans. It’s a time when every team is 0-0, and every signing adds a bit of hope.