The Couch Power 10, Week 10
Nation, I know you've heard nonstop about the polls over the last months, but today the most important poll of all will be released. Tonight, we will finally hear what the people to say, and when tomorrow comes, have a clearer idea of what the future holds in this country.
I'm speaking of course, about the inaugural release of the 2024 College Football Playoff rankings, and "the people" in question are the playoff committee. The shadowy figures in the dark, smoky room that determine what the postseason field will release their first rankings amidst the maelstrom of Election Night tonight, and we college football fans will get the first peek into their brains in the first-ever year of the 12-team playoff.
As if that weren't enough craziness, the ranking release will come fresh off another wild week in college football. Just last week, my introduction to this piece remarked on an abnormally uneventful weekend in the sport. But last weekend got back to the wild precedent that had been set by most of the preceding fall Saturdays: we had close games, we had numerous upsets, and we had near-misses on big upsets. Only one mega matchup appeared on the slate (and, pet peeve alert, it was once again played at Noon), but it lived up to the hype, as the 4th-ranked Ohio State once again got the better of rivals and hosts 3rd-ranked Penn State, in a wire-to-wire nailbiter that saw the Buckeyes clinch the 20-13 win on a late goal-line stand, their second of the game. Two other Top 10 teams needed late heroics to escape losing: SEC rivals Georgia and Tennessee both pulled out border war rivalry games against unranked Florida and Kentucky, respectively, with a touchdown in the last 5 minutes of the game. Many other ranked teams were not so lucky, however: Texas A&M, Clemson, Kansas State, Illinois and Iowa State were all stunned by their unranked opponents, the latter suffering their first loss of the season. And to the shock of an embittered nation, North Carolina strung together a second consecutive blowout win, taking out hapless Florida State in Tallahassee thanks in no small part to 9 sacks by the defense. All in all, despite what was perceived to be a pretty tame slate, 7 different ranked teams fell, all but two of them to unranked teams.
Just a refresher, in case you forgot: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
1. Oregon
There have certainly been bigger surprises in CFP reveals before, but I think you can put good money on Oregon being the top-ranked team tonight, and for good reason. They actually don't have the top strength of record, per ESPN, but they're the only team in America with a flawless record AND multiple wins over Top 15 teams, AND continue to pass the eye test, with a resounding win in Ann Arbor against defending champs Michigan on Saturday.
2. Georgia
If there is to be a surprise leapfrog of Oregon for #1, though, the candidate most likely is Georgia, who does own the aforementioned top strength of record metric, despite their sole loss at Alabama. The Dawgs once again were less than impressive coming off a bye week, needing a huge push in the last few minutes to avoid loss to a Florida team that lost their starting QB to injury in the first half. But with multiple big-time wins and a 7-1 record against the #1 rated schedule in the country, I think it's safe to conclude they're in the top tier of title contenders along with the Ducks.
3. Miami
Unbeaten Miami finally jumps in to the Couch's Top 3 for the first time all season, at the same time that they make their first appearance in the AP Top 4 since November 2017, in just their second 9-0 start in the last 20 years. The combination of BYU's bye week and the Hurricanes' ultimately decisive victory over a tough Duke team was enough to see the Canes make up some ground in the eye test battle, and, apart from Oregon, usurp all fellow unbeatens' strength of record. Three straight games against tricky but highly beatable opponents is all that stands between them and their first perfect regular season since 2002.
4. BYU
The Cougars had a bye week, and while they rested, it was a mixed bag for their resumé. Their miraculous escape from Oklahoma State looks even more confusing, as the Cowboys continued to slide into last place in the Big 12, and the Cougs' signature Big 12 win over Kansas State took a hit as the Wildcats lost to the other Cougars in Houston. At the same time, that early-season win over SMU continues to age like a fine wine, as the Mustangs could very well be on course to the ACC Championship.
5. Indiana
If you didn't notice, spots 3-5 are what I would call the tier of "imperfect unbeatens." Yes, just four Power 4 teams remain unconquered, and while each one not named Oregon has yet to win over the masses, Indiana even clocking in at 9-0 and the AP Top 10 at this point in this season is a mammoth accomplishment. The Hoosiers have not faced the toughest schedule thus far-- still clocking in sub-100 --but continue to meet new challenges each week and overcome then. Last week, it was a road trip to plucky Michigan State, where they found themselves trailing for the first time all season, and by double digits, at the end of the first quarter. No matter, Kurtis Rourke and the offense merely uncorked 47 consecutive points to run away with the blowout victory. The other Michigan team comes to town this weekend, and should Indiana beat the reigning national champs, it will enter the pre-Thanksgiving showdown with Ohio State unbeaten with a chance to clinch a Big Ten championship berth in the event of a win.
6. Ohio State
From the trio of unbeatens, we go to another tier, one of 'flawed teams, but obvious title contenders.' Ohio State is another team I am curious to see how the playoff committee assesses; I expect, of course, that they will be no lower than the Top 4, but I think this Buckeyes team is pretty similar to last year's, in which you can look at them from two perspectives. On the one hand, they have a good body of work, one win over a top team, and their sole loss was a narrow one on the road at the #1 team in the country. On the other hand, they haven't really looked like a dominant team in any of their games against Power 4 opponents, and even in the aforementioned big win (in this case Saturday's win at Penn State), there are obvious shortcomings that a better or more well-rounded opponent could have exploited. Last year, I fell in the latter camp, and felt pretty justified by the Buckeyes' finish to the season, in which they lost two straight to #1 Michigan and then Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. This team may well have a different fate, but so far, have not showed me they're notably better than last year's very-good-but-not-elite squad.
7. Texas
Texas enjoyed their second bye of the season last weekend, and just like SEC title rivals Georgia, they'll return from their respite with a game against Florida this Saturday. The strength of schedule and record metrics are still weirdly bearish on Texas, but I think just about everything apart from their disastrous first half vs. Georgia and lackluster second half at Vanderbilt last week has shown this is a top, top team.
8. Tennessee
Nothing is coming easy in the SEC this year, and nobody knows that better than Tennessee. After blasting their first 3 opponents by a composite scoreline of 191-3, their last five games have been decided by an average of a one-score margin. But the good news is, they've won four of those five, a stretch that's now included #7 Alabama, and Florida and Kentucky teams that gave Georgia all heaps of trouble. Speaking of Georgia, the Vols will need to make sure not to take their eye off the ball this week against Mississippi State; if they can avoid a trap against the conference's weakest side, a monster rivalry showdown with the Dawgs awaits the weekend following.
9. Boise State
The playoff committee hasn't exactly been known to be kind to "Group of Five" teams in the playoff era, but don't be surprised if there's a good amount of love shown to Boise State when the rankings are revealed tonight. It helps that the Broncos have a bona fide Heisman candidate in star RB Ashton Jeanty and come into the committee's playoff rankings fresh off a 32-point blowout of San Diego State. But Boise's body of work holds up: their top 60 schedule strength is superior to a number of teams ranked ahead of them currently, and the sole loss on record was the Week 2 defeat on the road at none other than top-ranked Oregon, courtesy of a last-second field goal. This is a legitimately good squad.
10. SMU
If you had taken a peek at the Week 10 schedule before the season began, I would bet pretty much all the money I have that you would not have guessed the only other ranked matchup besides OSU-Penn State would be Pitt at SMU. But so it was, that the nighttime held a top 20 showdowns of unlikely ACC unbeatens. And boy, did SMU seize the moment; Rhett Lashlee's Mustangs ran wild in giving Pitt their first loss of the season, jumping out to a 31-3 halftime lead and coastin to a 23-point victory. The Panthers represented SMU's first ranked win of the season, but two things lend to playoff optimism in North Texas: one, their sole loss of the season was a narrow one on the road at current unbeaten Big 12 favorite BYU. Two, with only three teams from the bottom half of the ACC standing between them and the end of the season, the schedule sets up very nicely for them to enter the ACC Championship at 11-1, and likely, in the top ten.
Just missed: Army, Penn State, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Washington State, future Bednarik Award winner Beau Atkinson
BONUS: Couch Playoff Bracket!
*denotes conference auto-bid
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