Euro 2024: Group D Preview
Kylian Mbappé is the present and future of football, but for all he's accomplished at his young age, he has yet to make an impact at the Euros. Can he lead France back to European glory after a 24-year absence?
Poland
FIFA Rank: 28th
Qualified as: Group E 3rd place, defeated Estonia and Wales in playoff
The Skinny
It got far less attention than, say, Belgium's or Colombia's around the same time, or even the United States' now, but Poland had a bit of a "golden generation" the last decade as well. And much like their contemporaries, Poland's is a. on its last legs, and b. likely to end with only a sense of disappointment. The Orłý (Eagles) have played in 6 of the last 8 major tournaments, with only two trips to the knockout stages in them. Their sole "good" tournament would be the 2016 edition of this tournament, where they were undefeated in regulation, and only exited in the quarterfinal stage after narrowly losing in penalties to eventual champions Portugal. Can a handful of players that have consistently won at the highest level in club football manage to help Orłý surprise the big names in this group and erase the bad taste of their Euro Cup and last two World Cup appearances?
The Best XI
Similarly to Serbia yesterday, Poland's issue is that a disproportionate amount of talent seems to be concentrated at the striker position. Unlike the Serbs, though, it's a pretty obvious choice who to roll out first: with all due respect to Karol Świderski and Krzystof Piatek, there's no question that Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona) and Arkadiusz Milik (Juventus) are the kind of players you don't keep on the bench, even at this stage in their career. The two strikers can rely on pretty good service from wingers and midfielders from the likes of (left to right) Fenerbahçe, Napoli, Brighton and Roma. Poland's other talisman besides Lewnadowsku is on the other end of the pitch, where Juventus' Wojciech Szczęsny will stand between the sticks possibly for one last time. He'll rely on a fairly young back line to hold steady though, anchored by a Premier League duo of the lone vet Jan Bednarek (Southampton) and Jakub Kiwior (Arsenal).
Netherlands
FIFA Rank: 7th
Qualified as: Group B runner-up
The Skinny
The Dutch are kings of the "so close, but not quite" banner in world football: despite consistently being one of the biggest and best teams in the sport, they have won only 1 international trophy, and are the only nation to feature in 3 different World Cup Finals without ever winning one. Their one trophy, though, did come in this very tournament back in 1988. The hosts that year? Germany. Can Ronald Koeman, then the team captain and now the Netherlands manager, engineer more magic for the Dutch in Deutschland? A loaded team sheet and recent results say it's entirely possible. After the disappointment of missing out on both the 2016 Euros and 2018 World Cup, and an unexpectedly early exit from the 2020 Euros, things have looked up in recent years. An impressive quarterfinal run in the 2022 World Cup, ended only in penalties by eventual champions Argentina, sandwiched between trips to the Nations League semifinals (finishing 2nd place to hosts Portugal in 2019 and 4th place last summer) reignited the belief that the Oranje has what it takes to go the distance in Europe. The question is, can a side that isn't used to winning at the highest level and was unconvincing throughout qualifying manage to maximize potential in what is easily the hardest group at this competition?
The Best XI
In the weeks leading up to the summer, and even early friendly fixtures before the main tournament, injuries have wiped out many key players. Perhaps nobody knows this better than the Netherlands, which has seen its midfield options specifically decimated by late-breaking injuries. Case in point: I've had to redo this projected lineup twice, first to exclude Atalanta's Marten de Roon, and then today after the breaking news that star Barcelona player Frenkie de Jong will also miss the tournament. Fortunately, they're not out of midfield options completely: de Roon's clubmate Koopmeiners should slot in nicely, and Koeman can call on the services of the ex-Liverpool and PSG man Wijnaldum, who was Holland's best player at the last Euros. Speaking of Liverpool, Cody Gakpo found his footing right at the very end of the club season for the Reds, and now could partner with star Memphis Depay (Atlético Madrid) and RB Leipzig's young dynamo Xavi Simons to form an intimidating attack tandem. But the wealth of options Netherlands have at the back is the main story: Liverpool captain Virgil Van Dijk continues to be one of, if not THE best center-backs in the league, but sleep on Manchester City's Nathan Aké, Bayern Munich's Matthijs de Ligt, and the Inter Milan duo of Stefan de Vrij and Denzel Dumfries at your own risk. So deep is the Oranje's defensive bench that I couldn't even find a spot in the starting XI for veteran playmaker Daley Blind or young studs Jeremie Frimpong (Bayer Leverkusen) and Micky Van de Ven (Tottenham).
Austria
FIFA Rank: 25th
Qualified as: Group F runner-up
The Skinny
Ever since a 3rd-place finish at the 1954 World Cup, it's been a long time in the competitive wilderness for Austria. They have qualified for World Cups and Euro Cups only sparingly in those last 70 years, having gone since 1998 without a berth in the World Cup, and not qualifying for a European championship until 2016 (their appearance in 2008 was only due to being a co-host). With that as a baseline, then, you can understand why fans of Das Team are feeling sunnier than usual. Their boys have now qualified for the Euros a third consecutive time, are coming off their first-ever knockout stage appearance in the last tournament, and positive performances in the Nations League tournaments in between. 3 years ago, Austria surprised many in the Euros by emerging from the group stage with two wins and only a narrow loss to hosts Netherlands; they exited in the Round of 16, but not before unexpectedly pushing eventual champions Italy to the brink in overtime. With a balanced, experienced squad of players and a proven manager in Ralf Rangnick, can Das Team turn heads in the Group of Death?
The Best XI
Part of what makes Group D such a difficult group is that in addition to the two heavy favorites are two teams that have all kinds of potential to be this year's Wales or Denmark; i.e. maximize their sneaky-good squad to the tune of a semifinal run nobody sees coming. Much like groupmates Poland, Austria have a deceptively good teamsheet, laden with talent and experience. It starts at the top with talismanic striker Marko Arnautovic, who is still banging in goals for Italian champions Inter Milan at the young age of 35. He is likely to be joined in attack by Freiburg striker Michael Gregoritsch and Leipzig attacker Cristoph Baumgartner. The Bundesliga influence continues throughout the squad: star midfielder Marcel Sabitzer rediscovered his high-quality form at Borussia Dortmund, and forms an impressive midfield with Bayern Munich's Konrad Laimer and Leipzig's Nicolas Seiwald. The Borussia Mönchengladbach full-back duo of Max Wöber and Stefan Lainer flank center-backs that will be playing in the Champions League next season with Feyenoord and Bologna.
France
FIFA Rank: 2nd
Qualified as: Group B winner
The Skinny
You know them, and more than likely, you either love them or hate them. France won their first major tournament at the 1984 Euros and in the forty years since then, have been one of, if not arguably THE premier force in world football, reaching 4 World Cup Finals and winning 2, and 3 more Euro Cup Finals, winning 1 more. The closest Les Bleus have come to winning a European title since their 2000 triumph was on home soil in 2016, where they beaten in overtime by Portugal. Following that Final run up with a comfortable run to the trophy podium at the 2018 World Cup (with one of the younger teams in the competition) initiated shouts of a new dynasty being born. However, embarassment at the 2019 Nations League, and a shock Round of 16 exit at the Euros in 2021 (following only one win in the group stage), just as quickly started whipsers of the end of said dynasty. How did Didier Deschamps, Kylian Mbappé et al respond to that speculation? By immediately winning the 2021 Nations League Final, reaching a 2nd-straight World Cup Final in 2022 despite an injury-laden team (only falling in penalties in one of the greatest matches ever played), and romping through a difficult qualifying group this go-round with 7 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses. Yeah, I think it's safe to say Les Bleus are once again the team to beat this summer.
The Best XI
This is the maybe the deepest talent pool in the tournament, so much so that starters for the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, Chelsea and Aston Villa didn't even make the final squad. As such, you would be hard-pressed to find a bad XI out of the players Deschamps called up for the tournament. He very well may opt for fresher names in attack, but I'm inclined to think he may stick with the attacking quartet that took Les Bleus back to the World Cup Final 18 months ago: one of the best (if not the undisputed best at this point) players in the world in Kylian Mbappé, surrounded by the reliable output of Milan's Olivier Giroud and the consistent playmaking of Atlético Madrid's Antoine Griezmann and PSG's Ousmane Dembélé. Gone are the days of the undefeated Kante-Pogba pairing, as both players have taken a dip in their professional careers, but Real Madrid's young tandem of Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni should be fully capable professionals. As with every position, France have a luxury of options in defense, but I'm inclined to think they will (and should ) for a CB pair that, at their best, are two of the best defenders in the Premier League: William Saliba (Arsenal) and Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool). And it's a new era between the sticks, as longtime captain Hugo Lloris has retired the France kit, but his long-term understudy and Milan starter Mike Maignan is surely ready for his moment.
Group Prediction
In this era of tournaments largely opting for straight-up ranking for the draw pots, bona fide "Groups of Death" are rare, but I think this constitutes as one. Before the tournament, I labeled France and Netherlands as two of the favorites to win the competition, and Austria and Poland two teams capable of surprising people, and here they are all in the same group. This feels like a group in which anything could happen and it wouldn't surprise me, even a shock France implosion. But I think I'm going to seize on the two likeliest bets, that France will top the group and Poland will be a little overmatched. To counteract merely playing the odds, though, I will offer this bold take: needing a result against a team that has just held favorites France to a draw, Austria will upset the Dutch in the last match of Group D, leapfrogging them for 2nd place due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
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