College Basketball Couch Power 10 (Jan. 30th)
Pitt's Blake Hinson was the star of one of this season's many upsets...and then immediately endeared himself further to Americans everywhere by taunting Duke students
Are you down right now? Stuck in the cold grey of January? Have the post-Christmas, approaching-Valentine's blues? Perhaps you're reeling from the fact that we're approaching the four year anniversary of the Covid lockdowns, and the fact that, between a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl and a Biden-Trump election, we're looking at another 2020?
Well, whatever your reason may be, if you're like me, you may need a pick-me-up, and you might find it in the form of the realization that we are exactly 6 WEEKS AWAY from March Madness. That's right, less than two months until the various conference tournaments give way to the best postseason in American sports.
Finally recovering from the exciting finish to the college football season and the annual Packers-induced heartbreak, I've allowed myself to really hone in on the college basketball season in the last couple weeks or so. From what I have picked up, the trend of college basketball in the post-one and done, transfer portal and NIL era has continued. No, this is not a "get off my lawn!!!" old man rant from someone who misses the days of old; quite the opposite. The massive changes in recent years have brought about much more parity and competitiveness in college basketball, and fittingly, we're in the midst of another exciting, eventful season without a clear singular great team. Hopefully means we're bound for yet another incredible postseason-- I wished this very thing in my first Couch Power 10 of 2023, and two months later, we were treated to quite possibly the maddest March in history, so fingers crossed! The potential for another wild one is certainly there: Only half of the preseason Top 10 teams are still in the Top 10, and that rate about continues when stretched out across the whole AP Poll; only 13 of the preseason Top 25 are still ranked today. Four different teams have spent time atop the rankings, and too many upsets to even count have taken place. And where just a couple years ago, we had more than one team approaching March without a single loss on their record, this year, the solitary unbeaten team in college basketball fell ten days into the year 2023.
So, true to form for the last few years in the world at large, it's been a wild and unpredictable season. Despite this, I’ll try my hand at ranking the top teams based on what they’ve done to date:
1. Purdue
If you're like me, a college basketball fan who is admittedly just now really tuning into the college basketball season, then the last time you have considered Purdue, they were becoming just the 2nd team in history to lose to a 16-seed. The shock loss to Fairleigh-Dickinson came one year after becoming the 1st team in history to lose to a 15-seed in the Sweet 16 round (St. Peter's). Yes, your skepticism about their tournament chances are warranted, especially if they again come up against a tiny mid-major from New Jersey. But, with just two losses from a Top 5 schedule, and five wins over ranked teams, little argument can be made that they've done more than any other team to deserve the #1 spot, even if the AP Poll slightly disagrees.
2. Connecticut
Of course, if you were going to opt for someone other than Purdue for the #1 spot, you would likely put forth the team that sits atop both major polls, UConn. The defending champions were expected to take somewhat of a step back after significant personnel turnover. Instead, Dan Hurley and co. have picked up right wheter they left off in March and April of last year, jumping out to an 18-2 record and four wins over ranked teams, their sole blemishes being an upset at Seton Hall and narrow loss at Kansas. I personally give the slight nod to Purdue because their schedule strength is rated 20 spots higher than Connecticut's, but coming from a fan of one of the ranked teams the Huskies beat, I do personally think they're likely the best team in the land at the moment.
3. North Carolina
Who was that ranked team that you mentioned, that lost a competitive game to #1 UConn? Why, six-time national champions North Carolina, of course. That's right, as a wise man once said, "We are so back." After a new era began with an 8-seed team transforming into a red-hot balanced juggernaut that ended the reign of Coach K and came within a rebound (or a broken floorboard) of a national title, and then followed that up by becoming the first preseason #1 in history to miss the tournament altogether, nobody really knew what to expect in Year 3 of Hubert Davis' reign. But, the new-look Heels-- 8 of the 12 players who saw regular game time last year either graduated or transferred out --have surprised everybody with their cohesion, and a renewed toughness and proclivity for fast-break offense. It's no secret the ACC is down this year, and that is certainly a contributing factor in UNC's flawless ACC start, but the fact is they played a gauntlet of a non-conference schedule, and are 17-3 despite the 16th-ranked schedule in the country. If their loss to Villanova, and wins over then-ranked Arkansas and Clemson aren't aging very well, their narrow losses to UConn and Kentucky and wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma sure are. They have a trap to avoid tonight in Atlanta, but then on Saturday...a certain four-letter rival comes to town in yet another Top 10 showdown.
4. Houston
Houston is beloved by the metrics, as they often are. Critics of the Cougars in past years-- myself being one of them --was that their metrics were inflated by having about 6x the amount of talent as their mid-major conference peers, and that may contribute their early exit from the tournament last year. But! Houston is a Big 12 team now, so one can hardly levy that criticism...at least at year's end. Kelvin Sampson and co. still need to get into the meat of their schedule, because as good as they've been, they are currently just 2-2 against ranked teams.
5. Tennessee
Down the stretch last season, Tennessee and their SEC rivals Kentucky were both massive enigmas, notching an impressive amount of wins over ranked teams, while also losing a not-insignificant amount of games to unranked foes. This year, that trend has held true for Kentucky, but the Volunteers have demonstrated a little more consistency. Sure, the Mississippi State loss a couple weeks ago was weird, but Tennessee's other losses have come away from home to Purdue, North Carolina, and Kansas, all ranked in this Power 10. With a schedule strength ranked Top 5 in the land, and a head-to-head win over the very next team listed below, I think it's safe to say the 15-4 Vols are a very good team, that has the potential to be great.
6. Wisconsin
That's right, despite having little preseason fanfare, Wisconsin has pretty indisputably made themselves a Top 10 team, with a profile that looks eerily similar to Tennessee's. ESPN's strength of record metric actually puts them ahead of the Vols, but I'm not going to do that because I have eyes and a brain and can see that Tennessee has the same record, has played a slightly tougher schedule, and beat Wisconsin head-to-head. Still, the Badgers have the #7 ranked schedule strength, a 15-4 record, and a 7-3 mark in 'quality games.' Sunday's date with Purdue will be a tasty one, a showdown to claim the pole position of the Big Ten.
7. Kansas
Preseason #1 Kansas certainly looked the part for the first couple months of the season, notching early wins over UConn, Tennessee, and Kentucky. But things have gotten a little weird since then: a non-conference blowout loss to Marquette and inexplicable losses to UCF and West Virginia, two of the poorest sides in the Big 12, have popped up amidst more impressive wins (Oklahoma, TCU). Last weekend's close loss at Iowa State was not a bad result, but also won't help the credentials of a team that has probably more talent and depth than anyone in the land. The Jayhawks have a major chance to make a statement and right the ship all at once with #4 Houston paying a visit on Saturday.
8. Dayton
If Dayton was even on your radar to begin the season (unlikely), they likely fell off quickly, with a blowout loss to Northwestern in Week 1. But then, from November 16th all the way up to last weekend, the Flyers' sole loss was a neutral site decision vs. Houston. Their nation- best 14-game winning streak finally ended on Saturday, on the road at a very good Richmond team, but I would argue 17-3 Dayton is still the toast of the Atlantic 10, and probably all mid-majors.
9. Texas Tech
2019 runners-up Texas Tech have remained a solid program since their stunning title run, but haven't made nearly the same amount of noise in the postseason since then. Might this be their year to re-introduce themselves? The Red Raiders are off to a 16-3 start, putting themselves right amidst the crowded Big 12 title race. It won't get any easier from here, though; Tech is an unspectacular 3-3 in big games, and the Big 12 is so deep that no game is a gimme (certainly not tonight's battle in Fort Worth, for example).
10. Ole Miss
Texas Tech and Ole Miss?? No, don't rub your eyes. You are in fact reading the basketball Power 10. Ole Miss has come completely out of nowhere this year, getting zero votes to be ranked preseason, and selected by the SEC media to finish 10th (!!) in the conference. And, to be fair, if you did a quick glance at the AP Poll, you would think they're still nowhere to be found. But the Rebels, who at least are getting votes now, deserve better. Sure, they have a schedule strength in the 80s, and lost their conference opener to Tennessee by 30 points. But they swept through their non-conference schedule completely unbeaten, one of just two teams to do that, and per ESPN, are ranked 10th in 'strength of record.' Keep sleeping on this team at your own peril.
Just missed: Arizona, Marquette, South Carolina, Utah State, San Diego State, ACC POTY R.J. Davis
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