Alternative Realities For 2024's College Football Postseason
Last night, the curtain fell on the longest college football playoff in history, as well as on a remarkable, unpredictable, unexpected college football season with Ryan Day finally climbing the mountaintop with Ohio State. If the bowl slate in general had an abnormally small amount of entertaining results, this year's playoff was a fitting ending to this wild ride of a season: in a year in which it quickly became apparent there was a large tier of very good teams, but no truly great teams, the Top 4 seeds all fell in the quarterfinal stage, ultimately yielding a national championship between the # 5 and # 6 team in the country. After a couple rounds of, it has to be said, mostly snoozers, for the 3rd straight season, we had not one, but two thrilling semifinals with down-to-the-wire finishes. Yet, after a season full of unconventional frontrunners and many of the usual big dogs stumbling down the stretch-- or in the case of a couple, out of the gates --we were treated to a championship between two of the biggest names in the sport in Ohio State and Notre Dame, both of whom attempting to banish the ghosts of their last championship appearance (ironically, for both Notre Dame in 2012 and Ohio State in 2020, their last title game had ended in humiliating defeat at the hands of Alabama in the Orange Bowl Stadium in Miami).
But, back to the main headline: this was the first year of the expanded playoff model, moving from 4 teams to an unprecedented 12. Pretty much since the announcement that the 4-team playoff field, consisting solely of four teams a committee deemed "the best four," would triple in size, and feature 5 automatic bids for conference champions (including first-round byes for the Top 4 among them), there was criticism. Criticism of the format, for one, whether it had to do with the existence of byes, or the fact that the quarterfinals were played at bowl sites and not home campuses. But more prominently, criticism from the sport's purists that this number was far too large, cries that only got louder as the lower-seeded teams all got blown out in the first round.
Yet I, for one, am still happy for the field extension, and in fact would welcome further expansion because I simply don't subscribe to the theory that a regular season is sufficient enough as 'play-in rounds,' and that a playoff was going to give us the same couple champions every year anyway. For starters, for every season in which we have a "clear top 2 teams," there's one like both this one, as well as the very first year of the 4-year playoff, wherein the undisputed Top 2 teams lost their first game and there were at least a couple teams left out of the playoff altogether that had a very legitimate case to be included. Furthermore, who's to say that the playoff would give us the same teams every year? That's the beauty of March Madness, isn't it? The reason it's so hard for teams to even play, let alone win, titles in College Basketball as effortlessly as Alabama has done and now Clemson is doing in College Football is because it's really freaking hard to string together 6 performances against the nation's best teams over the course of 3 weekends every year. If a selection committee handpicked the Final Four in basketball the way they do in football, we'd see Kentucky and Duke trading off titles every season. Instead, despite those programs being consistently among the highest seeds in the tournament, they've won 3 championships amongst themselves in the last 20 years. A wider field means just that, a wider chance for everyone, and thus, less of a guarantee that we'd be seeing the same teams atop the podium year after year.
All this being said, I thought it'd be fun to examine how some of the different playoff ideas would have transpired this year. Specifically, I thought we'd look at the old model we had, but some alternate ideas as well, such as a massive 32-Team model, as well as two formats that borrow from the world of soccer, a 'Champions League' and a 'Super League' model. In terms of how these alternate realities played out: I generally would simulate the showdowns (using accurate home-field and weather conditions) via whatifsports.com, although when relevant, I just went on bowl results and/or real-life head-to-head showdowns. It's imperfect, I know, but it's hard to know what else to work with.
ALTERNATE REALITY 1: THE ORIGINAL MODEL
Brief refresher of the format
4 teams
No automatic bids; simply the teams the playoff committee ranked 1-4 in their final rankings of the season
The semifinals would be played at two "New Year's Six Bowl" sites on a rotating basis
Championship would be played at a neutral site, based on highest-bidding stadium
How it all went down
New Year's Six Bowls:
Peach Bowl: # 6 Ohio State 34-27 # 16 Clemson
Fiesta Bowl: # 9 Boise State 47-23 # 10 SMU
Rose Bowl: # 5 Penn State 31-21 # 8 Indiana
Sugar Bowl: # 7 Tennessee 20-34 # 12 Arizona State
Semifinals:
Cotton Bowl: # 1 Oregon 17-24 # 4 Texas
Orange Bowl: # 2 Georgia 10-23 # 3 Notre Dame
It's a question that nobody really had any reason to consider, but I couldn't stop thinking about: what on earth would the model we had just last year have looked like in a season such as this, where conference realignment yielded even more of an intra-conference logjam, and a slew of imperfect teams that had multiple losses and/or a lack of a conference title. There's virtually no question the Top 2 teams would have still been Oregon, sent to the Cotton Bowl, and Georgia, sent to the Orange Bowl, and the easiest answer as to what the rest of the field would have been is to just look at who the committee had at 3 and 4 in their final rankings, which was Texas and Penn State. But I have to imagine the main reason the committee ranked those teams where they were was the format of the playoff, and how they were to fall into the 12-team bracket; in other words, no way would the committee picked a 4-team playoff with immediate rematches of the Big Ten and SEC Championships. There's a chance they would have just gone full swap, sending Texas to meet Oregon and Penn State to Georgia, but I still struggle with the idea that they would have included just two conferences in the playoff, with multiple two-loss non-champions. I think either a 1-loss team or another 2-loss champion would have found its way in there, and who among Notre Dame, Indiana, Boise State and Arizona State is the most likely? I'm gonna go with the only blueblood brand of the bunch, who entered the postseason with 10 straight wins and a 4-0 record against ranked teams.
As for how the 4-team playoff would have actually transpired? Well, no reason to expect the Georgia-Notre Dame matchup would have differed from their real-life Sugar Bowl showdown, even if this fictional one were played outdoors in Miami rather than in New Orleans. As for the Cotton Bowl Semifinal: much as top-seeded Oregon got an unlucky draw in real life needing to beat a wildly talented Ohio State team out for revenge, so too do they in this simulation, where they play a virtual road game in Dallas against a Texas team fresh off heartbreak in the SEC Championship. The typically high-flying Ducks struggle against the first truly elite defense they've played, and a late touchdown isn't enough to force extra time in front of a raucous crowd in Jerry World.
CHAMPIONSHIP (Atlanta):
# 3 Notre Dame 20-23 (OT) # 4 Texas
If you count the postseason as starting with conference championships, then three of the best games (perhaps THE three best games) we got this postseason were Texas's overtime loss in the SEC Championship in Atlanta, then their overtime win in the Peach Bowl (also in Atlanta), and Notre Dame's Orange Bowl game against the # 4 team in the country. So I would not be surprised if we had some real-world leakage into the simulation here, as a simulated Championship matchup between # 3 Notre Dame and # 4 Texas in Atlanta yielded a thrilling 3-point overtime win for the latter. Much like in the real national championship, an opening touchdown drive for Notre Dame was the only joy they would experience for most of the game while Texas built their lead, only for the Irish to force an extra period with a late 10-point flurry in the 4th quarter. In overtime, though, the Longhorn defense again held tough, forcing their opponents to settle for a field goal, and when Quintrevion Wisner took a handoff 12 yards into the end zone, it was enough to hypothetically give Texas their first title in 20 years.
ALTERNATE REALITY 2: THE 32-TEAM PLAYOFF
Brief refresher of the format
32 teams
All 10 Conference Champions
22 at-large teams
Split into regions, a la March Madness
"Regional Finals" would be bowl games held at neutral sites (typically existing bowls, though a few new "northern" ones may need to be added)
Semifinals and Final use original format
How it all went down
1st Round (winning teams are in all caps, conf. champions with asterisk)
Unsurprisingly, the first round goes pretty much chalk, though a couple 5-over-4 upsets might raise some eyebrows. Also, carnage for the ACC... regular-season champion and new kids on the block SMU are the conference's lone representation in the Round of 16, and their place coming only after a narrow escape at home vs. Heisman winner Travis Hunter and Colorado.
Round of 16 and Quarterfinals (winning teams are in all caps, conf. champions with asterisk)
Few upsets in the Round of 16, and in fact, mostly comfortable wins for top seeds. The round did give us a couple thrillers though: first, Arizona State edged Boise State in a showdown of the nation's two best RBs on the smurf turf tundra. Then, while Ohio State trounced Bama in one of the biggest games of the round, Texas and Ole Miss played a thriller in the other marquee matchup, with the Rebels pulling the road upset on a buzzer-beating field goal by Caden Davis.
Then, the bowl games that represented the quarterfinals, much like the real-life quarterfinal round, saw a surprising amount of easy wins (including a shockingly easy Ohio State win over their favored opponent), with one exception. That exception? Penn State and Notre Dame play an epic duel much like they did in the real life semis, with the Nittany Lions meeting the same last-second loss fate in Indianapolis this time.
Semifinals and Final (winning teams are in all caps, conf. champions with asterisk)
Two upsets in the semis! Notre Dame dismisses favorite and top overall seed Oregon with surprising ease in the Cotton Bowl. Then, Ole Miss continues their Cinderella run with an upset of real-life champion Ohio State in the Orange Bowl; a late Jeremiah Smith TD tied it for the Buckeyes but Jaxson Dart drove Ole Miss down the field quickly enough to set up yet another Caden Davis game-winning field goal. Maybe Lane Kiffin was on to something with his angsty Twitter rants... the Buckeyes were lucky Ole Miss didn't crash the 12-team party this year!
The Lane Train's Cinderella run would end there, though, as Notre Dame gets the virtual payoff in Atlanta that they narrowly missed in real life. In an inverse of their actual game against Ohio State, it was a massive 2nd quarter for the hypothetical Irish that saw them put substantial distance between themselves and their opponents, enough to hold off a late push and secure a 41-31 victory.
ALTERNATE REALITY 3: THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLAYOFF
Brief overview of the format
24 teams
Every conference represented, proportionally
Number of "bids" per conference preset, allocated based partially on conference size but mostly on historical conference performance
8 seeded teams receive first round bye
Top 4 seeds are conference champions
In the 1st Round through the Quarterfinals, bracket is redrawn so highest-ranked remaining team plays the lowest-ranked, second-highest vs. second-lowest, so on and so forth
Quarterfinals and Semifinals played at New Year's Six bowl sites, Final played at a neutral site based on highest-bidding stadium
How it all went down
Bids and Bracket:
This proposed model is new this year, so some explanation is warranted. The idea for this came about amidst the maelstrom of playoff field debates down the stretch of the season, and more specifically, how those debates centered respective conference strength. I saw many a take on college football Twitter, some in jest, but many not, about how the SEC and Big Ten should just have a pre-ordained number of teams in the field. Well, this soccer-inspired tournament is the format that allows for that. It's a 24-team field, where every conference is represented, but the better performing conferences in recent history automatically seed more teams in the field. It's no secret that the SEC has been the best conference for some time now, hence why they lay claim to 1/4th of the field- but recent positive performances by the Big Ten and ACC in playoff play get them a combined 9 bids, and decent showings by the Big 12 (multiple playoff bids by Oklahoma and Texas, TCU's title run) garner them 3 spots of their own. The beauty of this, too, is that it could change year-to-year; say the Big 12 spawns a national champion, and the other teams perform decently in the playoff? Chances are they earned their conference a bonus spot in next year's playoff. Conversely, if the ACC, for example, had a brutal postseason like they did in real life this year, it might cost them a slot in the following playoff.
Games would be played at the higher-seeded teams' home fields for the first two rounds, before joining up with the current format (quarterfinals and semifinals at "New Year's Six" sites, determined by best geographic match). Seeding would be best on the playoff committee rankings, still, with the one stipulation that the Top 4 of the 8 teams receiving first round byes are the conference champions. Another wrinkle, one that borrows as much from the NFL as it does from European soccer: rather than playing a straight bracket, after both the first round and the Round of 16, teams are re-seeded based on their CFP ranking, so that the highest team remaining is always playing the lowest team remaining, at least until the semifinals.
*One note: the auto-bids would nullify need for conference championship games in the multi-bid leagues, so "champions" and rankings for the Power4 conferences are based on where they were at after Week 15.
1st Round and Round of 16 (winning teams have asterisks)
As most would expect, the four lower Group of 5 champions were dismissed with ease in the first round. The games between teams ranked in the 13-20 range, though, were another story. Iowa State held off real-life ACC champs Clemson with a late field goal, the latter's archrivals South Carolina were upset by BYU, and Miami was stunned on its home turf by a late Illini touchdown.
In the Round of 16, when the Top 8 entered the fold, not only were upsets hard to find, competitive games in general were as well. Some exceptions: Penn State's knock-down, drag-out win over Alabama, SMU's thriller over Iowa State (a Brashard Smith TD with 1:02 left clinched it for the Mustangs), and the lone 'upset' of the round: Ole Miss beats Big 12 champs Arizona State in the desert. Yes, the Lane Train rolls on in this universe too, evidently.
Quarterfinals:
This quarterfinal round popped off in a way the actual, real-life one really didn't. First, on the last night of virtual 2024, ACC champions SMU mount a furious 4th quarter rally to scare the daylights out of Georgia, who only preserve their once 27-point lead thanks to a last-minute interception. Then, on hypothetical New Year's Day, we were treated to a feast of epic games: the Penn State-Notre Dame thriller we've seen in several different timelines, followed by a Rose Bowl in which top seed Oregon is again stunned, this time 31-24 by Ole Miss, thanks to a late goal-line stand. Then, in the nightcap, the Texas-Ohio State showdown we've also seen in a few different timelines. Be it Arlington, New Orleans, or Columbus, Texas just can't stop losing 14-28 to Ohio State on a late Jack Sawyer 85-yard fumble return touchdown! Crazy.
Semifinals and Final
Unfortunately, the last stages here did not live up to the thrilling bar set by the previous round. Both semifinals are surprising snoozers, with Notre Dame's defense thwarting any hope of an Ole Miss upset, and Ohio State draxxing Georgia sklounst, ironically by the exact same scoreline by which they beat Georgia's rivals Tennessee in the real playoff, 42-17. On the plus side, those winners mean that we do for the first time in these simulations, get our real-life national championship matchup! Notre Dame and Ohio State in Atlanta... I'm going to guess that the Irish open the scoring with a marathon touchdown drive, only for the Buckeyes to score the next 31 points of the game, and cling on for a 34-23 win despite a late 2nd half rally by their opponents.
ALTERNATE REALITY 4: THE SUPER LEAGUE PLAYOFFS
Brief overview of the format
6 teams from each conference
4 automatic bids for division winners, 2 at-large teams
Seeding (and at-large bids) based on CFP ranking
Higher seed hosts, 2 highest-seeded division champions in each conference get first-round byes
Conference championships and National Championship played at bowl sites and neutral-site, a la current playoff format
How it all went down
Yes, this is a shameless plug for my own wild proposal for College Football, from just before the 2021 season. I don't know that such a drastic shift is the best idea for the sport, but for a game that's increasingly starting to mirror both the NFL and club soccer in its money and exclusivity, why not combine the best of both NFL (regionalized divisions and quality postseason format) and European soccer (promotion/relegation, preservation of traditional rivalries)?
I have simulated the outcomes of the last three seasons based on real life head-to-head results when applicable, and final Sagarin rating when not. You can take a look at what the divisions and each team's standing looked like this year here. Here's how the 2023 Playoffs would have looked:
1st Round and Quarterfinals (winning teams are bolded)
For the most part, the first two rounds of the Super League playoffs were low on entertainment value. Late touchdowns by SMU and South Carolina made the final score of those games seem closer than they truly were. There were "upsets" in the two National Conference games in terms of seed, but not in terms of the respective teams' actual ranking.
But, while the American semifinals were both fairly procedural wins for the higher seeds, the National semis delivered. Ohio State and Texas played out their real-life Cotton Bowl classic in snowy Columbus this time, and Penn State continued their underdog run with a road upset of Georgia, their vaunted defense confounding backup QB Gunnar Stockton.
Semifinals and Final (winning teams are bolded)
In the conference championships, we get yet another universe, like the 32-team one, in which Notre Dame upsets Oregon in the Cotton Bowl, and does so by some margin. In the all-Big Ten rematch in the National Conference championship, James Franklin and Penn State come oh-so-close to not only keeping their Cinderella bid alive, but finally breaking through for the big one... only for a 20-yard Quinshon Judkins run with 67 seconds left to rip their hearts out one more time.
If you're keeping track at home: this would, yes, once again set up Notre Dame meeting Ohio State in Atlanta, making this the second alternative playoff timeline this year to yield the same exact championship matchup we got in real life. Once again, no need to change reality in terms of how this hypothetical game played out: Ohio State wins the Super League Final over Notre Dame, 34-23.
There you have it: different playoff formats this year may or may not have yielded different champions, but compared to years past, the chance of variety feels much greater. And even if Ohio State wins in every universe, the different styles almost certainly would have resulted in different championship games, and offer the possibility for a much more entertaining and satisfying route there. Is this new 12-team field we have the last iteration? Or are even more major changes coming?
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