5 Premier League Predictions That Will Likely Look Foolish In May

It's hard to believe, but the Premier League is already back! With a summer of international football-- and the Summer Olympics --now fully in the rear-view, attention can turn to the most elite domestic league of the World's most popular sport, where predictions and odds abound for how exactly this Premier League season will transpire. In lieu of a "storyline overview," I thought it'd be more fun to instead offer up 5 predictions for 2024-25.

The title essentially explains the thinking behind this piece. These are 5 things I'm going to predict will happen, knowing full well that come the end of the season, we will likely look back on these and laugh at my folly. In order of least to most foolhardy prophesy:

1. One-- but not both --of Chelsea and Manchester United will come good.

Why it's silly: For a few reasons, in either direction. On the one hand, Chelsea and Manchester United are two of the "biggest" clubs in the world, in terms of history, English and Europeans success, and yes, money. It stands to reason that last season, which saw them finish 6th and 8th place, respectively and completely miss out on the Champions League, might be an aberration rather than the norm, and thus, both could be poised for a comeback. Conversely, it's been over a decade since United last won the title, and their best finish since then was a 19-point margin between them and champions Manchester City, 7 seasons ago. Chelsea, meanwhile, have spent most of the last two seasons languishing in the bottom half of the table. In other words, recent history suggests that both clubs just really might not be that good any more.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because I'm splitting the difference. I truly think these two clubs are poorly run through-and-through, and are still destined to finish a ways away from the créme de la créme of this league, which is their fans claim and their net spend indicate they should be. But at the same time, I struggle to imagine both teams completely missing out on the Champions League again, given how competitive the league is for at least any spot besides the top one, and both clubs' (Chelsea's in particular) resource advantage over the field. So I'll play it right down the middle, and say that one of the two will rediscover Top 4 heights, while the other stays paces behind. For the record, I think the likelier candidate to be "back" is Chelsea, given their legitimately absurd depth and strong finish to last season, but I wouldn't be shocked if another summer full of reckless spending and hiring a new manager keeps them hovering around midtable and it's Man United's consistency in keeping their manager and the core of their players for a 3rd successive season that wins out.

2. Manchester City will 5-peat.

Why it's silly: Manchester City have won the last four titles, yes, and six of the last seven titles, yes. But if going back-to-back-to-back-to-back is already very hard, going back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back is that much harder. So much so, in fact, that it has never been done in English football. There have been many eras of dominance, both pre- and post-Premier League; Alex Ferguson's Manchester United twice completed the three-peat, and won 8 of the first 10 Premier League seasons. Arsenal went 1st place, 2nd place, 1st place in the Premier League in ensuing seasons, and in the latter one didn't lose a single match. From 1978-1990, Liverpool won 10 titles in 14 years-- but had never strung together more than three trophies in a row. Last year's Manchester City team became the first to win four consecutive titles, and three of the four have not been secured until the closing weeks, two of them including last year, down to the final DAY. And that's just the history angle; there's also the reality that this will be a new-look Manchester City team, with only one signing thus far, but a whole slew of outgoing transfers, including promising youngster Julian Álvarez. The same sort of tinkering and overhaul might be necessary this season, which could result in another slow start for the champs.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: There's a reason I'm ranking my prediction of who is going to win the league, easily THE question of every season, as my second-least bold one here- Manchester City under Pep Guardiola have earned the right to be default favorites every season. Does my Red heart lead me to think Liverpool might be back in the title chase this year, even with a new manager? Sure. Do I think Arsenal has what it takes for a 3rd consecutive title push? Absolutely I do. Do I think the wild spending Chelsea is employing, or the moves Manchester United and Tottenham are making coupled with their returning managers, could make them serious title threats? Not really, but I suppose it's not out of the question. But is it a smart bet to take anyone but City to win at all? No. The five-peat may have never been completed in England, but it has been done (and then some) in plenty of other top European leagues, and the Mancurians have reached "Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga," "Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1" levels of domestic dominance. Nobody can compete with their talent, depth, and resources, and oh yeah, by the way, they have one of the great managers in football on top of that, who by all accounts will not extend his contract in Manchester.... you think Pep Guardiola's ending his illustrious Premier League career not a top a trophy podium? No chance. He and his team are a juggernaut, and you just don't bet against a juggernaut.

3. Erling Haaland will NOT 3-peat as Golden Boot winner.

Why it's silly: There's a reason I think taking "the field" over a single individual is the 3rd-riskiest projection in this piece, even bolder than picking one team-- Haaland's team --over the field for the title sweepstakes. Erling Haaland has been a goal machine everywhere he's gone in his short career: at the ripe old age of 24, he has averaged a goal a game in his stints with Red Bull Salzburg, Borussia Dortmund, and now Manchester City. A GOAL a GAME. For 5 years running. That is insane! Unsurprisingly, he has won the Golden Boot race outright in his two years in the Premier League, shattering the season record for goals in his first year. Plus, with Harry Kane's departure to Bayern Munich last season, the only other player still in the Premier League with a Golden Boot to his name is Mohamed Salah, who has become as much a creator for Liverpool as a goalscorer. Haaland plays for the four-time defending champions and title favorites, and will once again feature as the (arguably even more so this season with the aforementioned departure of fellow attacker Álvarez). The man was just built to score goals, and has perhaps the world's best midfield supplying him with opportunities.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because at the end of the day, I still am picking 'the field' over just one player. And as incredible as Haaland is, there's a wealth of attacking talent on his own team, let alone throughout the rest of the league. I think it's very possible he will draw more of the singular attention of opposing defenders, which will open up opportunities for his teammates to score more, whether that's reigning Player of the Year Phil Foden, stalwart Bernardo Silva or shiny new toy Savinho. There also is the Salah of it all- his preseason form for Liverpool indicates he may have another belter of a season in him yet. (And if he doesn't, his teammates Luis Díaz, Darwin Nuñéz, Diogo Jota or Cody Gakpo could all be rivals for the crown.) There's also the high possibility that the chief attacker(s) for other high-octane teams step up in the race. The top candidate for this has to be Son-Heung Min, who is THE guy for Tottenham, or his new teammate Dominic Solanke, but it could also be Bukayo Saka or Gabriel Martinelli again at Arsenal, Cole Palmer or Christopher Nkunku again at Chelsea, or fellow reigning Top 5 finishers Aleksander Isak (Newcastle) or Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa). Haaland surely won't be indomitable forever...might year 3 slow him up the way it did for Salah at Liverpool?

4. At least 2 of the 3 newly-promoted teams will stay up.

Why it's silly: Just last season, the three teams relegated from the Premier League were the three that had just been promoted- Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United. The upcoming promotees are almost always the betting favorites to go right back down, and it makes sense: not only is the competition level such a significant step up, the financial gap between the Premier League is only getting bigger and bigger. Southampton and Ipswich Town have the two lowest wages in the league, and reigning Championship winners Leicester City aren't much higher up, plus they sit in a strange place where they're good enough to stick around for a little while in the domestic cups, which will only add more games to their fixture schedule, but likely not good or deep enough to make a run in any competition they're in. Especially considering how last year's relegation battle was basically done and dusted with weeks left in the season, there's no clear alternative for relegation fodder in lieu of the new kids.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because, despite me (successfully!) predicting it last year, all 3 teams going right back down almost never happens. Last year, in fact, was the first instance of it in 20 years, and only the second instance in Premier League history. More often that not, the 'promoted three' enter the season as the betting favorites to be relegated back down at the end of the season, sure, and that stands to reason, but almost every year, at least one, and often at least two, of the promoted sides does enough to stay afloat in the Premier League their first year. The reason I was confident in a rough go of it for the new promotees last year is ironically the same reason I'm confident in a better outing for this year's bunch: Leicester City and Southampton are Premier League teams, not Championship teams. They happened to be two of many teams (including my beloved Liverpool) that had a stinker of a season in '22-'23, but they always were too good to be playing a level below like they were last season, and Leicester in particular proved that with a pretty comfortable cruise to the Championship title. I think those two will re-acclimate to league play a lot more easily than most freshly promoted squads. And as for Ipswich? The plucky Easterners have overachieved two years in a row, winning the rare back-to-back promotions, and their exciting manager and uptempo style of play resembles some of the promoted teams that have actually done quite well in their first year in the league, like Fulham in '22-'23, Brentford in '21-'22, Leeds in '20-'21, Sheffield United in '19-'20.... the list goes on. I believe there is enough quality in these 3 sides that at least a couple of them can hang around in the Premier League into next season.

5. The title race, Top 4 race, Europa/Conference League race, and Relegation race will all include a bald manager.

Why it's silly: Well, because it's just kind of silly as a premise, for one. But it's also statistically reckless: bald managers helm less than a third of the teams in the Premier League. The six baldies at the start of this season are: Pep Guardiola (Manchester City), Erik ten Hag (Manchester United), Arne Slot (Liverpool), Enzo Maresca (Chelsea), Nuno Espirito Santo (Nottingham Forest) and Sean Dyche (Everton). Some of those clubs have such a ruthless track record with managers, that a couple of the eggheads may not even make it to the end of the season, let alone find themselves in one of the aforementioned races.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because it's fun, first of all. But also because of the teams involved-- assuming the managers will last a full season is of course assuming a great deal of risk, but if they do? You'll notice the teams they're helming fall quite nicely into the various races involved. Guardiola's Man City has, of course, won the last 4 titles and will be gunning for # 5. Slot and Maresca are kicking off their first seasons ever in the Premier League, but inherit teams in Liverpool and Chelsea that have been in the thick of the title race 2 of the last 3 years, and are coming off a season-ending Europa League/Europa Conference push, respectively. Erik ten Hag's United tenure has been hit-or-miss, but the Red Devils finished Top 4 in his first season, and despite a disappointing sophomore effort, managed to sneak into the Europa League last season, too. And Dyche, formerly of Burnley and more recently at Everton, is certainly no stranger to a relegation battle, and neither is Santo's Nottingham Forest, who has barely escaped each of the last couple seasons. It just feels like there's a good shot each of the various key season-ending pushes could have a hairless wonder trying to rally their troops.