5 Premier League Predictions That Will Likely Look Foolish In May

It's hard to believe, but the Premier League is already back! In fact....it's been back! But for The Couch, this weekend will mark a real beginning point, now that the Women's World Cup has finished. With a summer of international football now fully in the rear-view, attention can turn to the most elite domestic league of the World's most popular sport, where predictions and odds abound for how exactly this Premier League season will transpire. In lieu of a "storyline overview," I thought it'd be more fun to instead offer up 5 predictions for 2023-24.

The title essentially explains the thinking behind this piece. These are 5 things I'm going to predict will happen, knowing full well that come the end of the season, we will likely look back on these and laugh at my folly. In order of least to most foolhardy prophesy:

1. Manchester City will 4-peat.

Why it's silly: Manchester City have won the last three titles, yes, and five of the last six title, yes. But if going back-to-back-to-back is already very hard, going back-to-back-to-back-to-back is that much harder. So much so, in fact, that it has never been done in English football. There have been many eras of dominance, both pre- and post-Premier League; Alex Ferguson's Manchester United twice completed the three-peat, and won 8 of the first 10 Premier League seasons. Arsenal went 1st place, 2nd place, 1st place in the Premier League in ensuing seasons, and in the latter one didn't lose a single match. From 1978-1990, Liverpool won 10 titles in 14 years-- but never strung together more than three trophies in a row. And that's just the history angle; there's also the reality that this will be a new-look Manchester City team, with long-time stalwarts Riyad Mahrez, Aymeric Laporte, and Ilkay Gündogan departing and Bernardo Silva rumored to be close behind them. People understandably scoffed at Pep Guardiola's emotional declaration at the end of 2021-22 that Sergio Agüero "could not be replaced," when he went on to replace him with Erling Haaland, who averaged a goal a match. But the fact was, it's true, that Agüero's departure and Haaland's arrival required a restructuring of City's preferred playing style, which is a big reason-- perhaps the biggest -- why the eventual champions didn't actually ascend to the top of the table until mid-April of last season. The same sort of tinkering and overhaul might be necessary this season, which could result in another slow start for the champs.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: There's a reason I'm ranking my prediction of who is going to win the league, easily THE question of every season, as my least bold one here- Manchester City under Pep Guardiola have earned the right to be default favorites every season. Does my Red heart lead me to think Liverpool might be back this year? Sure. Do I think Arsenal and Manchester United finally have the managers that will make them perennial contenders again? I think it's highly possible. Do I think the moves Chelsea and Tottenham are making, coupled with their new managers, could make them serious title threats? Not really, but I suppose it's not out of the question. But is it a smart bet to take anyone but City to win at all? No. The four-peat may have never been completed in England, but it has been done (and then some) in plenty of other top European leagues, and the Mancurians have reached "Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga," "Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1" levels of domestic dominance. Nobody can compete with their talent, depth, and resources, and oh yeah, by the way, they have one of the great managers in football on top of that. They're a juggernaut, and you just don't bet against a juggernaut.

2. Six managers will be sacked by Christmas.

Why it's silly: Because it's Christmas!! No, but actually, though the various brass throughout the league care little about the sentimentality of the holiday, I'm sure, it is an early time in the season (not even halfway!) to have parted ways with your manager, and six sackings would constitute 30% of the league. Furthermore, a good amount of clubs are breaking in new managers and, either for a title charge or in an attempt to stay afloat in the Premier League, have made many a new signing. Conventional wisdom would hold that the decision-makers would allow more than half a season for their new managers and all their new parts to start taking shape.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because, quite frankly, 'conventional wisdom' hardly ever applies to club football owners. Fans and owners alike want to win, and win now, and most will prioritize that instant gratification, or change for the sake of changing, over allowing a new manager and new-look team the time to gel and get their system implemented. Six firings by the December holiday would be slightly more than the number we've gotten in 3 of the last 4 seasons, but actually would be right on average for the last 4 years, thanks to a stunning nine dismissals just two seasons ago. It's perhaps less likely than in most years that any of the Big Six clubs will say goodbye to their bosses early on; Manchester City and Liverpool have two of the best managers in the sport, Arsenal and Manchester United both seem to have their guy, and Chelsea and Tottenham just made new hires. Still, if things go incredibly south for United in the early months of the season. Erik ten Hag's seat will feel nice and toasty, and Chelsea and Tottenham both have demonstrated a proclivity for extreme impatience with their managers. I would guess one of Pochettino (Chelsea) and Postecoglou (Tottenham) will be out by the halfway point, and five of the mid-to-low table clubs worried about relegation will have followed suit.

3. We will have a first-time Golden Boot winner.

Why it's silly: Because the #1 and #2 top single-season scorers in Premier League history are still playing in the Premier League. In his debut Premier League season for Liverpool six years ago, Mohamed Salah broke the record for goals in a 38-game season, netting 32. Salah has followed that up with two other Golden Boot-winning seasons since then, and has been a consistent menace; last season was the first time the Egyptian failed to reach the 20-goal mark for Liverpool. His final tally? 19 goals, with 11 assists to boot. Last season also marked the end of his record, though, as (stop me if you heard this before), in his debut season in the Premier League for Manchester City, Erling Haaland broke the record for goals in a 38-game season, netting 36. This will mark only the Norweigan's second season for the reigning champions, and he's set an insane bar for himself, but what do you know? He's already averaging a goal per match through Manchester City's two matches this season. If you're betting a Golden Boot winner, the smartest money is still on either of these players.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because I'm essentially picking 'the field' over two players. With Harry Kane's departure to Bayern Munich, only two players that have won the Premier League Golden Boot before are playing in the league this season. And as incredible as Haaland and Salah are (see above), there's a wealth of attacking talent on their own teams, let alone throughout the rest of the league. Given that both will be tabbed to be the primary goalscorer for their incredibly attacking-proficient sides, I think it's extremely possible that they will again lead the league. But I think it's every bit as possible they will draw more of the singular attention of opposing defenders, which will open up opportunities for their teammates to score more, whether that's Julian Álvarez, Bernardo Silva or Jack Grealish for Manchester City, or Luis Díaz, Darwin Nuñéz, Diogio Jota or Cody Gakpo for Liverpool. There's also the high possibility that the chief attacker(s) for other high-octane teams step up in the race. The top candidate for this has to be Son-Heung Min, who is now THE guy for Tottenham, post-Kane, but it could also be Bukayo Saka or Gabriel Martinelli at Arsenal, Callum Wilson at Newcastle, Raheem Sterling or Christopher Nkunku (post-injury) at Chelsea, or even an attacker from the likes of Brentford or Brighton.

4. Half of last season's Top 4 will not make the Top 4 this season.

Why it's silly: Because historically, the rich get richer. The rise of Manchester City and Tottenham in the late aughts/early 10s broke the chokehold on the Top 4 that Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United had for years, but there still has rarely been deviation from the new 'Big Six." Only twice in the last 20 years, in fact, has a club outside that select crew managed to break through: Leicester City in their stunning 2015-16 title, and Newcastle United, who managed to finish 4th place just last season. Champions Manchester City can't fathom falling any lower than 2nd place at worst, and solid transfer business has runners-up Arsenal and 3rd-placed Manchester United poised to compete again. Newcastle are officially the wealthiest club in the world, and one has to imagine their gajillionaire Saudi owners will do everything in their power (and within the seemingly fluid UEFA rules) to keep the Magpies near the top of the table. Furthermore, the remainder of the Big Six are in a bit of a transition period: Tottenham have a new manager, Liverpool have large amounts of personnel changes, and Chelsea, who finished their lowest in 20 years last season, have both.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Because in actuality, the only proven quantity in this league, year over year, has been Pep Guardiola's Manchester City. The closest to them in consistency has been Jürgen Klopp's Liverpool, and if the Reds return to the Top 4 this season, that would automatically knock out half of this predicted turnover already. As a Liverpool fan, I'm not convinced our transfer business (so far) has been enough to boost us back to a point where we're competing with City for the title, but I am very bullish that we will at least be in the thick of the Top 4 race again. Arsenal's title charge last season was no fluke; they are and will again be legitimately very good. But as one of the youngest teams in the league, this could be a little too much, too fast for the Gunners, and they could be one injury at a key position away from real trouble (which is exactly what happened in the title race last season). Similarly, there's a rational argument to be made that ten Hag and Eddie Howe's successful first seasons at Man United and Newcastle were a bit ahead of schedule, and benefitted from a notable down year from half of the Big Six. Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have, I think, made good hires at manager, and though the former's absurd amount of new signings the last two seasons guarantee some growing pains for a new-look team, at a certain point, the sheer amount of talent has to come good, right? This is to say nothing, also, of the plucky overachievers such as Brentford, Brighton or Fulham, who with a bit more consistency this year than last, could be real spoilers in the race for European qualification.

5. All 3 newly-promoted teams will be relegated back down.

Why it's silly: This almost never happens. More often that not, the 'promoted three' enter the season as the betting favorites to be relegated back down at the end of the season, and that stands to reason, but almost every year, at least one, and often at least two, of the promoted sides does enough to stay afloat in the Premier League their first year. In fact, fairly often, at least one of the promoted sides proves to be downright good despite the quality jump: Fulham last season, Brentford in '21-'22, Leeds in '20-'21, Sheffield United in '19-'20....all finished in the top half of the table. Sheffield are back this season, and bring multiple seasons' worth of top-flight experience, and last season's Championship winners, Vincent Kompany's Burnley, are trendy picks to be the 'Top 10 crashers' in 2023-24.

Why I'm predicting it anyways: Mostly because I still don't agree with the popular commentary from this summer that this is 'the weakest Premier League in years.' In fact, based on depth, I think quite the opposite. Look at the clubs that finished within 10 points of the drop zone last season: the two London sides in that bunch, Chelsea and West Ham, had a shocker of a season but coming off a year in which both finished Top 6, I think it's a safe assumption that may have been an aberration. Wolves and Everton, the latter of whom scraped by with a victory on the last matchday have now hovered near the drop zone in back-to-back seasons, but both once-proud clubs seem to always find a Houdini-esque way to escape their seemingly inevitable fate. That leaves just Bournemouth, who is the second-most predicted relegation candidate (behind only newbies Luton Town), and yes, gone are the days of Eddie Howe and the coastal side's consistently free-flowing football. But I think many are forgetting that after a dismal start to the season. the Cherries were very, very solid in the calendar year of 2023, at one point winning 8 matches out of 11. They finished their season with 4 consecutive losses, but that was only after their safety had officially been secured, and new manager Andoni Iraola, on paper, is a solid hire. The other part of the equation here is the newly promoted sides: I don't think Sheffield nor certainly Luton Town have the firepower to stay up at this level. And though Kompany has been incredibly impressive in the start to his tenure as Burnley manager, this radical step up in competition (and ensuing slew of personnel changes) might be asking a lot of a relatively young coach.