2022 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, "music's biggest night" returns in the form of the 64th Grammys Ceremony! For the second consecutive year, the ceremony was rescheduled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which means for the second consecutive year, this ceremony will celebrate music that in some regards feels like it came out an eternity ago. It also means that once again, tonight's Grammys will look pretty unfamiliar. Though this hasn't been confirmed, it's likely the awards show will again feature a blend of live and pre-recorded, of in-person and at-home. And instead of a packed house at the familiar confines of the Staples Center, the nominees and performers who attend will be performing and celebrating in Las Vegas, at the slightly lower-capacity MGM Grand Garden Arena. Plenty of familiar faces will be there to offset the newness, though, between many artists who have been repeat nominees and performers, and the host Trevor Noah, back for another year.
Though these particular awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music (criticisms I find valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards out there. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year. If you want to read a full overview of the nominees specifically, I basically already did that, so read that here!
In addition, if you’re curious about the nominees for all the awards, not just the 12 I'm highlighting in this article, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give all the awards to Taylor Swift. Sometimes they give them to Beck. Sometimes they give them to H.E.R. Other times they give them to Billie Eilish. In short: I have some idea, but really no idea, who and what will win. All I can do is try! Here goes:
GENRE
Best Music Video
“Freedom" - Jon Batiste (Alan Ferguson, director)
"good 4 u" - Olivia Rodrigo (Petra Collins, director)
“Happier Than Ever” - Billie Eilish (Billie Eilish, director)
“I Get A Kick Out Of You" - Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga (Jennifer Lebeau, director)
“Montero (Call Me By Your Name)” - Li'l Nas X (Li'l Nas X and Tano Muino, co-directors)
“Peaches” - Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon (Colin Tilley, director)
"Shot In The Dark" - AC/DC (David Mallet, director)
Will Win: “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)”
Could Win: “Happier Than Ever"
Should Win: “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)”
Anything BUT: “Peaches”
Snubbed: "Introvert" - Little Simz (Salomon Lighthelm, director)
In a field that shares a surprising amount of overlap with the Record of the Year nominees, I have to imagine one of those six will take home the win in this category, with all due respect to rock legends AC/DC. My initial thought was that Grammy darling Billie Eilish may be the frontrunner on the basis that she directed her own video. But dig a little further, and you'll see that's also true of Li'l Nas X, and his music video touched off more conversations, reviews, takes, etc. across the country than anything since at least Childish Gambino's "This Is America" in 2018. Regardless of how you feel about the content of "Call Me By Your Name," there's no denying its achievement in costuming, makeup, graphic design, and choreography. The only thing preventing me from labeling it a shoo-in is its controversial, risqué content. All of this being said, the only music video that truly floored me in the last year was Little Simz' "Introvert," and this won't be the last time in this preview piece that you'll see me saying she was robbed of a nomination.
Best Music Film
Bo Burnham: Inside - Bo Burnham
David Byrne's American Utopia - David Byrne
Happier Than Ever: A Love Letter to Los Angeles - Billie Eilish
Music, Money, Madness... Jimi Hendrix in Maui - Jimi Hendrix
Summer Of Soul - Various artists
Will Win: Summer Of Soul
Could Win: Happier Than Ever: A Love Letter to Los Angeles
Should Win: Bo Burnham: Inside
Anything BUT: Music, Money, Madness... Jimi Hendrix in Maui
Snubbed: Hamilton (Kidding... kind of)
This is not a category I tend to pay attention to, and I will be very surprised if the Grammys even decide to air it. But it's not every year a Grammy category features one of the biggest popstars in the World, one of the buzziest programs of a year, and the reigning Oscar winner for Best Documentary all in one category. Summer Of Soul, a documentary about Harlem's soul fest in 1969 produced by the Roots' Questlove, is a great work about the power of music, and though I typically would think Billie Eilish's concert film might give it a run for its money, considering just one week ago it was at the epicenter of the Will Smith-Chris Rock controversy and didn't really receive the proper reception it deserved, it seems all too perfect that it would get a shot at redemption with this awards show. But I mean it when I say Bo Burnham's musical dramedy special is one of the most creative, ingenious, thought-provoking works of art I've seen in some time, and importantly, the music actually slaps. After it was completely robbed of top honors at the Emmys for its field by a film of a 2015 production of Hamilton, I would love to see Bo sneak up and get a redemptive win this time.
"Bo Burnham pictured with Grammy winner 'Based Socko'" is a caption I want to be able to use after tonight.
Best Melodic Rap Performance
"Hurricane" – Kanye West featuring Lil Baby and the Weeknd
"Industry Baby" – Li'l Nas X featuring Jack Harlow
"Need To Know" – Doja Cat
"Pride Is The Devil" – J. Cole featuring Lil Baby
"WusYaName" – Tyler, the Creator featuring Ty Dolla $ign and Youngboy Never Broke Again
Will Win: "Industry Baby"
Could Win: "Hurricane"
Should Win: "Industry Baby"
Anything BUT: "Need To Know"
Snubbed: "We Could Be Good (United)" - Black Thought featuring C.S. Armstrong and OSHUN
This is the second edition of this rebranded Grammys category, as "Best Rap/Sung Collaboration" gave way to "Melodic Rap" last year. It was a necessary change, in my opinion, as the genre of Rap is evolving to incorporate much more sung musicality, and the lines between "Rap" and "Rap/Sung" were getting harder to define. There are some heavy hitters in this category, between two legends of the old guard, two up-and-coming rap/pop sensations, and Tyler the Creator, 2020 winner of Best Rap Album, spanning the generations. I find "Need To Know" among Doja's more insipid songs (and it also doesn't feel like Rap to me? Is that dumb to say?), but the other nominees would all be solid winners. My vote, though, both subjectively and objectively would be with Li'l Nas X's earworm, whose beat and flow is so addictive that I never once got tired of hearing it despite it being played almost nonstop last Summer.
Best Rap Song
"Bath Salts" - DMX featuring Jay-Z and Nas
"Best Friend" - Saweetie featuring Doja Cat
"family ties" - Baby Keem featuring Kendrick Lamar
"Jail" – Kanye West featuring Jay-Z
"My Life" – J. Cole featuring 21 Savage and Morray
Will Win: "Best Friend"
Could Win: "Jail"
Should Win: "family ties"
Anything BUT: "Laugh Now Cry Later"
Snubbed: "Introvert" - Little Simz
This, too, is a pretty loaded field, with some of the biggest names in the game right now making an appearance. And yet, most of the individual songs themselves were not particularly big, save for Saweetie and Doja Cat's banger. True story: I LOVE "Best Friend," and given how much bigger a hit it was than its fellow nominees (plus the appeal for the Grammys of being able to present this award two female artists for the second year running), think it's the likely winner. But between its connection to the extremely problematic connection to Dr. Luke and my own love for Kendrick Lamar, I have to roll with "family ties," which had me skeptical upon first listen, and now has to be one of my most-streamed songs currently.
Best Rap Album
Call Me If You Get Lost – Tyler, The Creator
Donda – Kanye West
King's Disease II – Nas
The Off-Season – J. Cole
Will Win: Call Me If You Get Lost
Could Win: Donda
Should Win: Donda
Anything BUT: King's Disease II
Snubbed: Good News - Megan Thee Stallion
This category was the topic of much discussion fresh off the nominations announcement, when Drake, who saw his album Certified Lover Boy among the nominees, announced he was withdrawing his album from contention. No reason was ever given for this, but considering how slated it was by critics, perhaps he figured it wasn't worth it as he wasn't going to win anyway. The bigger story, in my opinion, is how in a fantastic year for female rappers, not a single one, not even reigning Best New Artist Megan Thee Stallion, saw their records up for this award. Hm. Anyhow, enough talk about who ISN'T here; much like the last Rap category, this field features three of the most revered artists in the genre in J Cole, Kanye West, and Nas, the latter of whom is the defending champion for his 2020 album King's Disease. They will face stiff competition from 2020 winner Tyler, the Creator, though, as his Call Me If You Get Lost easily is the most acclaimed of the nominees and was a fairly surprising snub for Album of the Year. That said, especially considering votes were cast before certain, ahem, public personal life matters took place, Kanye West has a real chance to win. Donda received mixed reviews from critics, but was thought well of by those in the industry, and scored a surprising Album of the Year nod. Honestly, taking only music into account, it's my pick; Donda won't win AOTY (nor should it), and wasn't the best Rap release of the last year, but of the ones that the Academy in fact nominated, it's the most impressive, albeit not most cohesive work.
Off-the-stage issues-- the same that led the Grammys to decide against his live performance --notwithstanding, Kanye West has a real shot at once again wearing the belt for Best Rap Album.
Best R&B Song
"Damage" – H.E.R.
"Good Days" – SZA
"Heartbreak Anniversary" - Giveon
"Leave The Door Open" – Silk Sonic
"Pick Up Your Feelings" – Jazmine Sullivan
Will Win: "Leave The Door Open"
Could Win: "Damage"
Should Win: "Good Days"
Anything BUT: "Heartbreak Anniversary"
Snubbed: "Black Dog" - Arlo Parks
This is another award I may not typically pay much close attention to, but this was such a good year for R&B, and this particular category is absolutely loaded with killer tracks. So loaded, in fact, that there was no room for any of the many terrific songs by one of my favorite finds from this year, Best New Artist nominee Arlo Parks. Silk Sonic is a safe bet to win, I think, given their song's double nomination for Song and Record of the Year as well, though we should know by now to never fully count out H.E.R. at the Grammys. Were it up to me, however, this trophy (and, I'll say it, ideally myself) would be going home with SZA for her gorgeous balm of a song "Good Days." There's not a single nominee here that I don't like, but that one stands above the rest.
Best Country Album
The Ballad of Dood and Juanita – Sturgill Simpson
The Marfa Tapes – Miranda Lambert, Jon Randall and Jack Ingram
Remember Her Name – Mickey Guyton
Skeletons – Brothers Osborne
Starting Over – Chris Stapleton
Will Win: Starting Over
Could Win: Remember Her Name
Should Win: Starting Over
Anything BUT: Skeletons
Snubbed: star-crossed - Kacey Musgraves
Country often gets disrespected at the Grammys to a level perhaps only Rap understands, but this tends to be an award that does in fact make the primetime ceremony. Multiple past winners (as well as a couple past Album of the Year nominees) make the field here, but the one that didn't is perhaps the lede story: Kacey Musgraves, 2019 Album of the Year winner, received only two total nominations on the night, both for her song "camera roll," and zero love for her album star-crossed. Though the sequel to the glorious Golden Hour failed to match the positive acclaim of that award-winner, it was still among the stronger releases of any album this year, let alone Country specifically. Of the albums that did get nominated, Chris Stapleton appears to be the frontrunner, as well he should be for his solid Starting Over, but don't be surprised to see a groundswell of support for rising star Mickey Guyton.
Best Alternative Music Album
Collapsed In Sunbeams – Arlo Parks
Daddy's Home – St. Vincent
If I Can't Have Love, I Want Power – Halsey
Jubilee – Japanese Breakfast
Shore – Fleet Foxes
Will Win: If I Can't Have Love, I Want Power
Could Win: Daddy's Home
Should Win: Shore
Anything BUT: If I Can't Have Love, I Want Power
Snubbed: Long Lost - Lord Huron
Best Alternative Album rarely gets airtime on the ceremony but year after year, is sneakily one of my favorite categories of the year. That’s no different in 2022, as the albums nominated come from an absolute who's who of beloved indie-rock artists. Unfortunately, that award seems likely to go to unexpected nominee Halsey, both because the Grammys love giving awards to big-name mainstream stars who pop up in non-Pop categories and because many feel the show has snubbed the artist of major nominations on more than one occasion. I say "unfortunately" not because Halsey isn't immensely talented but rather because I personally thought all other nominees here were delightful, particularly Arlo Parks' Collapsed In Sunbeams, and Shore, one of my favorite albums of 2020. Equally unfortunate: Lord Huron's beautiful Long Lost, my #1 album of 2021, not even making the cut.
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
"Butter" - BTS
"Higher Power" - Coldplay
"I Get A Kick Out Of You" – Lady Gaga
"Kiss Me More" – Doja Cat featuring SZA
"Lonely" – Justin Bieber and Benny Blanco
Will Win: "I Get A Kick Out Of You"
Could Win: "Kiss Me More"
Should Win: "Kiss Me More"
Anything BUT: "I Get A Kick Out Of You"
Snubbed: "Cold Heart (Pnau Remix)" - Elton John featuring Dua Lipa
Typically, the Pop Solo Performance category tends to be the murderers' row of hits; case in point, last year's Grammys, wherein Harry Styles' megahit "Watermelon Sugar" beat out sensational tracks from the likes of Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift, Doja Cat and Dua Lipa. This year, though, I actually think the Duo/Group Performance field is more stacked. BTS, the biggest group in the universe, landed their sole nomination on the night in this category for the second year running. Coldplay, a band that doesn't lack in popularity themselves, also has a chance, as does Justin Bieber with "Lonely," one of his best, most stripped-down singles of his career. But ultimately, I think this will come down to two nominees, "Kiss Me More" and "I Get A Kick Out Of You." The former was one of the biggest songs of 2021 and was easily one of my favorite radio hits of the year. The latter is a simple cover of a song written in 1934 by last decade's pop star and a 95-year old man. Naturally, I expect the Grammys to select that option.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
Justice – Justin Bieber
Planet Her – Doja Cat
Positions – Ariana Grande
SOUR – Olivia Rodrigo
Will Win: SOUR
Could Win: Happier Than Ever
Should Win: SOUR
Anything BUT: Justice
Snubbed: MONTERO - Li'l Nas X
Every year this category features some of the biggest names in music, which makes sense considering it's the top honor for a genre that's literally shorthand for "popular." The field this year is once again star-studded, and it arguably could have been even more so if it had included Li'l Nas X's record; I don't know that I would classify MONTERO as a Pop album, but it's every bit as Pop as Planet Her is. Despite the combined star wattage of Justin Bieber, Ariana Grande, and Doja Cat, for the second year running, this award will come down to one of two women who are also frontrunners for Album of the Year. Where last year’s showdown was between Taylor Swift and Dua Lipa, this one will come down to the young stars Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo. Billie is only 20 years old but is already a Grammy vet, winning this award two years ago. Olivia is the new kid on the block, but given just how huge SOUR was this year, I have to imagine she’s the favorite. I actually thought Happier Than Ever was the better project on the whole, but from a pure pop perspective, SOUR should— and likely will —win this one.
Which one of these two future queens of Pop will win the genre's top honor tonight?
GENERAL
Best New Artist
Arlo Parks
Arooj Aftab
Baby Keem
Finneas
Glass Animals
Japanese Breakfast
Jimmie Allen
the Kid LAROI
Olivia Rodrigo
Saweetie
Will Win: Olivia Rodrigo
Could Win: Finneas OR Saweetie
Should Win: Arlo Parks
Anything BUT: the Kid LAROI
Snubbed: Måneskin and Mickey Guyton
Nearly a month ago, I previewed this very award! Two assertions are 100% bulletproof about Best New Artist this year: one, it will definitely be an award that makes the primetime ceremony, as it’s one of the biggest awards of the night. And two, it will go to Olivia Rodrigo. Rarely has there been such an obvious winner— even Billie Eilish faced extremely stiff competition two years ago from the likes of Lizzo and Li'l Nas X -- but Rodrigo checks every box. She's brand new on the scene, she's wildly popular, and she's also respected by critics. The first and third description could also be true of Arlo Parks, to be fair, and I personally would love to see her get the attention she deserves, but none of the other nine nominees come even close to matching Olivia's name recognition.
Song Of The Year
"Bad Habits" - Ed Sheeran
"A Beautiful Noise" - Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile
"drivers license" - Olivia Rodrigo
"Fight For You" - H.E.R.
"Happier Than Ever" - Billie Eilish
"Kiss Me More" - Doja Cat featuring SZA
"Leave The Door Open" - Silk Sonic
"Montero (Call Me By Your Name)" - Li'l Nas X
"Peaches" - Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon
"Right On Time" - Brandi Carlile
Will Win: “drivers license"
Could Win: “Happier Than Ever” OR "Fight For You"
Should Win: “Happier Than Ever”
Anything BUT: "Bad Habits"
Snubbed: "Bunny Is A Rider" - Caroline Polachek and "Introvert" - Little Simz
If you've kept up with The Couch, you know I also previewed this one! Though she faces much harder competition for this category, this is another one I expect will be headed to Olivia Rodrigo. "drivers license" was one the biggest songs in all of 2021, but more importantly, it's the very kind of heartfelt ballad that tends to do well in this award that apparently is given on the basis of strictly "music and lyrics." If there is to be a surprise winner, it could be from the big hits of Li'l Nas X or Silk Sonic, but I would expect it to come in the form of one of two Grammy darlings, Billie Eilish or H.E.R. "Happier Than Ever" is one of Eilish's most vulnerable and impressive songs to date, and after H.E.R. stunned everyone with a win in this category last year, "Fight For You," from the film Judas and the Black Messiah, proceeded to earn her another upset win at the Oscars, for Best Original Song. Could she pull off the two-fer?
Record Of The Year
"drivers license" - Olivia Rodrigo
"FREEDOM" - Jon Batiste
"Happier Than Ever" - Billie Eilish
"I Get A Kick Out Of You" - Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga
"I Still Have Faith In You" - ABBA
"Kiss Me More" - Doja Cat featuring SZA
"Leave The Door Open" - Silk Sonic
"Montero (Call Me By Your Name)" - Li'l Nas X
"Peaches" - Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon
"Right On Time" - Brandi Carlile
Will Win: “drivers license"
Could Win: “Happier Than Ever” OR "Leave The Door Open"
Should Win: “Kiss Me More”
Anything BUT: "I Get A Kick Out Of You"
Snubbed: "Cold Heart (Pnau Remix)" - Elton John featuring Dua Lipa and "Up" - Cardi B
Guess what? I also previewed this one! It's wild to me that the field for all major general awards could be extended to 10 nominees, and yet we'd still see the same songs take up 70% of the field for both Song and Record of the Year. Where's the originality, Grammys?? Where's the creativity? It's also wild to me that a couple of those double nominees, for example, are Justin Bieber and Brandi Carlile, for very different reasons. But that's probably a moot point, as neither one will win anyway.
Anyways, in the last Grammy ceremonies, this has been the last trophy given out on the night, which might signal that the Academy feels this award, which "recognizes the artist’s performance as well as the overall contributions of the producer(s), recording engineer(s) and/or mixer(s) if other than the artist," is actually the biggest of them all. I would beg to differ, but given that it essentially is rewarding the best (and often the biggest) 'hit song,' I understand the logic. "drivers license" is the favorite for this one as well, and given its dominance over the airwaves especially in the first part of the last year, I do think it will win. But I also think it's less airtight in this category than most other awards it (and Olivia Rodrigo) are up for. The production is much more impressive in most other nominees, truthfully, and two-time reigning champion Billie Eilish and three-time winner Bruno Mars (in the form of Silk Sonic) both have very good, very popular offerings. Li'l Nas X could also sneak up for an upset win here, as "Call Me By Your Name" was one of the buzziest hits of the year and many feel he was robbed two years ago when his record-setting "Old Town Road" failed to win this award.
Album Of The Year
Back Of My Mind – H.E.R.
Donda – Kanye West
evermore - Taylor Swift
Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
Justice – Justin Bieber
Love For Sale – Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga
MONTERO - Li'l Nas X
Planet Her- Doja Cat
SOUR - Olivia Rodrigo
WE ARE - Jon Batiste
Will Win: SOUR
Could Win: Happier Than Ever OR MONTERO
Should Win: MONTERO
Anything BUT: Justice
Snubbed: Shore - Fleet Foxes and Sometimes I Might Be Introvert - Little Simz
As I discussed in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this appears to be a two-horse race. Though there are names both too big to be fully discounted-- Justin Bieber, Kanye West, Taylor Swift, Doja Cat -- and too respected to be fully discounted-- Swift again, H.E.R. and Jon Batiste --it will range from the surprising to the downright stunning if any of those artists take the stage to win this award.
No, just like in 2017 with Adele and Beyoncé, and in 2021 with Dua Lipa and Taylor Swift, it looks like this will be a primetime showdown between two female stars that absolutely ruled the music world last year, Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo. The two will bump up against each other in many a category tonight, and the closest race of all might be the biggest one there is. GoldDerby actually tabs Billie Eilish as the slight favorite for this award, which makes sense. She won Album of the Year in 2020, and Happier Than Ever is even better-reviewed than its predecessor. But-- and take this with a grain of salt, because I literally have never gotten this award prediction right in all my years of writing this piece, but --I think this is Olivia Rodrigo's night to pull off the same clean sweep of the major awards that Eilish did just two years ago. Just like its lead single "drivers license," SOUR was a sensation in the past year, one that fully introduced Rodrigo as a songwriting force to be reckoned with, and earned her admirers throughout the industry and the critical and commercial spheres.
Some parting thoughts on an award that is consistently the Grammy I most look forward to, and often one with which I am most disappointed by: though anyone but Billie or Olivia would be a surprise, don't count out Love For Sale or MONTERO. It's sad to say, but I'm not sure how much longer Tony Bennett is for this Earth, and the Academy is, I'm sure, fully aware of the fact that this could be their last chance to give the revered crooner a major award. Given the amount of love in the music world for his collaborator, Lady Gaga, as well, they might enjoy the emotional spectacle of also giving the artist her first major Grammy in the process. And as for Li'l Nas X; well, MONTERO would be an atypical winner, but not an underserving one. The young star's dexterity in shifting between emotional and hilarious, brash and insecure, and across genres such as rap, punk rock, and emotional pop resulted in one of the best releases of the last year, and for my money, the best of the nominees. It seems his hype died down somewhat in the latter part of last year, after having so much buzz in spring and summer of 2021 specifically, but still, despite the Grammy's terrible history of rewarding black hip-hop artists, and little-to-no history of rewarding openly queer artists, he'd be such a groundbreaking and popular winner that you can't really count him out.
And finally: if we're going to bump up the field for this award to 10 nominees, is it really necessary we stuff them full of mediocre pop releases and a couple obscure R&B releases? It happens just about every single year. Works by Fleet Foxes, Little Simz, Lord Huron, Tyler, the Creator, Megan Thee Stallion, and Arlo Parks, to name just a few, all would have been more interesting and more deserving nominees than some that did make it in.
Could Li'l Nas X score a stunning upset and win a history-making Album of the Year award? It's unlikely, but not impossible.
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