The Nominees: Album Of The Year
The last general category up in our pre-Grammys preview is also the biggest award of the night: Album of the Year. If you missed it, below are the three other major awards we've already previewed:
As has been discussed on this blog many a time, this is the closest equivalent to a Best Picture for the Grammys. Album of the Year recognizes a full catalog of musicianship, and historically, this is the one category the Grammys have actually done a fairly good job of nominating the best in addition to the biggest. That being said, that has not always (or even often) translated to the best body of work actually winning the prize. Case in point: in alternating years, Kendrick Lamar and Beyoncé lost the award despite having the biggest AND best albums of their respective eligibility periods. The winners haven't provided much clarity either: where Kacey Musgraves' victory in 2019 for Golden Hour might have signified a change in the tide in that regard, Billie Eilish's clean sweep of the major awards the next year, including a win in this category for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? was a reversion to "biggest name wins."
The Album of the Year race this year is unlike the several that preceded it. The last two years saw a wide open contest, with nearly every nominee in both 2019 and 2020 having a legitimate belief they could win. The years before that saw more of a defined two-horse race, but often it was a battle between the critical favorite vs. the commercial favorite: Kendrick Lamar's DAMN. vs. Bruno Mars' 24K Magic, or the former's To Pimp A Butterfly vs. Taylor Swift's 1989 or Beyoncé's Lemonade vs. Adele's 25. This year, it is more than likely a two-horse race again, but the two horses in question are both young popstars who elicit a similar reverence for their precocious songwriting and though one is much newer on the block than the other, have pretty much equal standing commercially AND critically. Throwing a spanner in the works is the fact that the rest of the field is full of wild cards, a motley crew of names you'd expect to see, names you're familiar with but would not have expected to see, and names you're not even familiar with. In my preview of the contenders for this award last fall, I did highlight all but one of the eventual nominees as possible names you'd hear called, but in reality, only half of the 10 albums I thought would make it in as nominees actually did so. Furthermore, if the last couple years has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. So, let those guessing games begin!
In order from worst to best odds, according to GoldDerby.com:
Donda - Kanye West
Odds: 22-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 53/100
Strongest Song: "Hurricane"
Weakest Song: "Jonah"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8/10
'Kanye West the person' may have seriously damaged 'Kanye West the artist''s odds at Grammy success this year, despite the surprisingly high number of nominations he has on the night. The controversy surrounding and backlash to Donda's release far outweighed the actual amount of hype and acclaim the album itself got. And now, Kanye's sporadic nature and his very public feud with ex-wife Kim Kardashian and her boyfriend Pete Davidson has landed him in more controversy, leading the Grammys to decide to yank his live performance at the show. All of this is, strictly musically speaking, a shame because as I wrote back in September 2021, "quite honestly, this is still a good album! Sonically, it combines the music of Yeezus and Jesus Is King, a fascinating and mostly effective fusion of church organ and prog-rock. For as much filler content as there is, there also aren't very many BAD parts. I wouldn't go so far as to say "no skips," but there aren't many." Considering it's the only 'pure Rap' nominee and he's a musical icon that is yet to win a major award, he would normally have a lane to victory, but I think it's a road too far.
Justice - Justin Bieber
Odds: 20-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 62/100
Strongest Song: "Peaches"
Weakest Song: "Unstable," as well as the various MLK interludes
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 6.5/10
It's not often that Justin Bieber being in contention for awards is a surprise, but the triple nomination for Album, Record and Song of the Year was pretty stunning. Bieber has garnered only one Album of the Year before now, and it was for 2015's Purpose, which featured a tracklist full of radio hits. Justice, despite topping charts itself upon release, was a much lower-key record, thanks to just one #1 single. It also is far from the artist's most cohesive work; it's a strange, boom or bust collection of songs and random, unrelated MLK interludes, which plays something like 'The Weeknd but make it Christian!' That said, especially with him being a double major award nominee for "Peaches" as well, you can't truly count him out, given that he's still one of the biggest names in Pop music.
Planet Her - Doja Cat
Odds: 16-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 76/100
Strongest Song: "Kiss Me More"
Weakest Song: "Ain't Shit"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 7.5/10
Doja Cat has never shied away from trying different things, and perhaps unsurprisingly, her third studio album Planet Her is an uneven project, with some voices and styles working better (such as in the addictive "Kiss Me More") than others (such as in the grating "Ain't Shit" or "Get Into It"). But on the whole, there's a lot more good than bad. It's a longshot to win Album of the Year because it ranks on the lower half of the nominees on both the critical acclaim and popularity matrixes, which is not exactly a recipe for success. However, lead single "Kiss Me More" is a double nominee for Record and Song of the Year, lending to her credibility, and she's also nominated for "Best Friend" with Saweetie. She's clearly a multitalented force, and the Academy has to be aware of their reputation with regards to Hip-Hop and women artists of color. If they were interested in undoing that reputation, we all might be in for a surprise this weekend.
WE ARE - Jon Batiste
Odds: 15-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 86th
Metacritic rating: n/a
Strongest Song: "BOY HOOD"
Weakest Song: "SING"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8/10
Jon Batiste's nomination in this category (one of a field-leading 11 on the night) is similar to Black Pumas' self-titled entry last year, in that it's a stunning nominee, but not actually a bad one in the least. Nor, were it to pull off a mammoth upset, would it be an undeserving winner. The lesser-known artist expertly blends elements of Jazz, Blues, Hip-Hop and R&B in this album that often tackles the global issues of a pandemic and civil rights movement that permeated the last year-plus. Unlike Black Pumas before him, though, there actually is an outside chance of victory, in that despite his relative obscurity on the mainstream radio, he's not a new face in the music industry by any means. He's also connected with the immensely popular Stephen Colbert, and oh, by the way, is the reigning Oscar winner for Best Original Score.
evermore - Taylor Swift
Odds: 15-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 85/100
Strongest Song: "willow"
Weakest Song: "cowboy like me"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8.5/10
Taylor Swift's evermore is a mildly surprising nominee, for no reason other than that it's essentially a Part 2 (or a B-sides, if you're slightly more cynical) to the reigning Album of the Year winner folklore. Then again, maybe that's exactly why it's nominated; like folklore before it, this album plays like a soothing-- albeit heartbreaking -- balm in a turbulent year, and though it admittedly lacks the consistently sharp writing of its predecessor, it also avoids the former's mistake of overstaying its welcome, and is more musically exploratory. All that being said, it's worth noting that this was one of the albums that only made the final field because of the last-minute extension to 10 nominees (the other being Kanye West's Donda), and perhaps that speaks to why, despite being the only female artist to win this award three times, she's got less-than-great odds. After all, it's so thematically similar to last year's winner but has returned far less of a cultural impact, so it would be a pretty big surprise if voters selected her work two years in a row, especially in a year where, unlike last year, she's arguably not the biggest name among the various nominees.
Back Of My Mind - H.E.R.
Odds: 14-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 6th
Metacritic rating: 75/100
Strongest Song: "We Made It"
Weakest Song: "I Can Have It All"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8/10
The Grammys' bizarre love of H.E.R. has become a meme at this point; it's so inexplicably inevitable that Back Of My Mind bringing the artist her third Album of the Year nomination in four years can't even be considered surprising any more. And look, as I have disclaimed every single year when discussing H.E.R., it's not that the love is unwarranted; she's remarkably talented, and while Back Of My Mind perhaps runs a little long, it's a great album with no real wink links on its tracklist. But having an artist that has registered very little mainstream success nominated for a major award for the fourth consecutive year is quite...eyebrow-raising. Even more so now that we know she's not just a name to take up space in the nomination field. Last year's wins for Song of the Year and for Best Original Song at The Oscars served notice that H.E.R. is ready to do more than just be nominated for awards. The general lack of recognizable star power makes her more of an underdog, but last year she broke through with a surprise Song of the Year win after her 3rd year being nominated for the award...who's to say she can't do the same for Album of the Year?
MONTERO - Li'l Nas X
Odds: 14-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 2nd
Metacritic rating: 85/100
Strongest Song: "DOLLA SIGN SLIME"
Weakest Song: "LIFE AFTER SALEM"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 9/10
Li'l Nas X is a big name and a bona fide star, no doubt thanks to his absolute mastery of the Internet. But, lest you think he's nothing more than a pop star for the TikTok generation, this Grammy-nominated album isn't just on the back of popularity. It's actually the most critically-acclaimed of all the nominees this year, as well it should be; the 'no skips' label gets thrown around too much, and is an oversimplified barometer of an album's quality, but really, MONTERO has no skips. The album is equal parts emotional and hilarious, brash and insecure, and he slides effortlessly between rap, punk rock, and emotional pop. It seems his hype died down somewhat in the latter part of last year, after having so much buzz in spring and summer of 2021 specifically, which might explain his standing of 4th place in the odds race. Still, despite the Grammy's terrible history of rewarding black hip-hop artists, he'd be such a groundbreaking and popular winner that you can't really count him out.
Love For Sale - Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga
Odds: 13-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 8th
Metacritic rating: 70/100
Strongest Song: "I Concentrate On You"
Weakest Song: "Love For Sale"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 7/10
In an arguably unprecedented era of musical creativity, it's a bit bizarre to see an entire album of covers be nominated for Album of the Year (and also have a song nominated for Record of the Year, for that matter). Then again, the Grammys aren't exactly known for being on the cutting edge, which perhaps helps explain the relatively good odds of this sleeper pick. To be fair, there is also a lot of well-earned goodwill towards both Lady Gaga and Tony Bennett in the music industry. And though there's nothing groundbreaking (or even really new) about this album, the two radically different artists' vocals play off each other brilliantly, giving this a nice dose of nostalgia to the simple, jazzy, 'Rat-Pack' era of music. Still, were Love For Sale to pull off the upset, it likely would be seen as a regressive choice in a field so dominated by diverse young talent.
SOUR - Olivia Rodrigo
Odds: 11-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 83/100
Strongest Song: "deja vu"
Weakest Song: "brutal"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8.5/10
2021's breakout star Olivia Rodrigo had one of the biggest albums of the year in SOUR, with singles "drivers license", "good 4 u", "deja vu", and "traitor" all topping the Pop charts upon their release. The former broke chart and streaming records, and is also a double nominee for Record and Song of the Year, and as Rodrigo herself is nominated for Best New Artist, she has a real chance at the rare clean sweep of all the major awards. She was such a sensation in this last year that I'm honestly surprised she isn't the odds-on favorite for this award as well. SOUR's immense popularity will be the strongest argument for its contender status--and to be fair, a #1 album is hard to beat --but don't lose sight of the fact that it's also just really good. The debut release from the young artist received near-universal critical acclaim, and she clearly has a seriously impressive songwriting future ahead of her. And in truth, in an era that seems to reward music that is highly mixed and produced, there is something deeply refreshing about an up-and-coming artist whose breakout is borne out of a simple, stripped-down sound.
Happier Than Ever - Billie Eilish
Odds: 10-1
Peak Chart Position (Billboard): 1st
Metacritic rating: 86/100
Strongest Song: "Happier Than Ever"
Weakest Song: "Oxytocin"
Daniel's Overall Ranking: 8.5/10
The argument for Billie Eilish being a frontrunner for this award is sort of a combination of the arguments for H.E.R. and for Olivia Rodrigo; she's an established Grammys favorite, but she's also legitimately one of the biggest names in music right now. The fact Rodrigo isn't the odds-on favorite for Album of the Year is a testament to Billie's popularity as much as anything else. Can she win her 2nd Album of the Year award in 3 years? Happier Than Ever lacked the smash singles 2020 winner When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? had, but it was a more cohesive, mature project all in all. With the title track in the running also for Record and Song of the Year, and song and album both earning her 4 additional nods on the night, Billie Eilish once again has a chance to reign supreme over the Grammys.
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