2020 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, "music's biggest night" returns in the form of the 62nd Grammys Ceremony! If the last time you tuned in to the Grammys was a few years ago, things are pretty different now. The ceremony is in January now, it's back in L.A. instead of New York City, all major categories have 8 nominees instead of 5, and Taylor Swift no longer has a autocratic rule on all Grammys.
Though the awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music (criticisms I find valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards show. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year. If you want to read a full overview of the nominees specifically, I basically already did that, so read that here!
In addition, if you’re curious about all the nominees, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give it to Outkast. Sometimes they give it to Kacey Musgraves. Sometimes they give it to Beck. Other times they give it to Adele. All I can do is try! Here goes:
GENRE
Best Music Video
“Cellophane" - FKA Twigs (Andrew Thomas Huang, director)
“Glad He's Gone” - Tove Lo (Vania Heymann & Gal Muggia, co-directors)
“Old Town Road” (Official Movie) - Li'l Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus (Calmatic, director)
“This Land” - Gary Clark, Jr. (Savanah Leaf, director)
“We've Got To Try” - The Chemical Brothers (Ninian Doff, director)
Will Win: “Old Town Road”
Could Win: “This Land"
Should Win: “Cellophane”
Anything BUT: “We've Got To Try”
Snubbed: "thank u, next" - Ariana Grande
The last 3 years the winner of this award has basically been a foregone conclusion. This year, these particular nominees present a little more competitive of an award. “Formation” (Beyoncé), “HUMBLE.” (Kendrick Lamar), and “This Is America” (Childish Gambino) provided stunning sociopolitical visual commentary to songs that were already some of the buzziest of the year. However, none of these 5 nominees fit the bill of both being a major hit AND a profound mini-commentary. If the voters are more drawn to the latter, it will surely be Gary Clark, Jr.’s breathtaking fury in “This Land.” Honestly, on artistic vision alone, it should go to FKA Twigs. But I expect the energy, mass appeal and star power of “Old Town Road” to trump all tonight. One thing we can all surely agree on: if the field was inclusive of such lighthearted funny videos as “Glad He’s Gone” and “You’ve Got To Try,” then surely Ariana Grande’s instant classic should have been honored as well.
It's a far cry from the haunting civil rights imager of "Formation" or "This Is America," but the celebrity cameos and infectious joy in the official "Old Town Road" movie might be enough to earn it a Grammy win.
Best Rock Song
"Fear Inoculum – Tool
"Give Yourself A Try" – The 1975
"Harmony Hall" – Vampire Weekend
"History Repeats" – Brittany Howard
"This Land" – Gary Clark, Jr.
Will Win: "This Land"
Could Win: "Harmony Hall"
Should Win: "Fear Inoculum"
Anything BUT: "Give Yourself A Try"
Snubbed: "Lo/Hi" - The Black Keys
Thanks in no small part to the decreasing popularity of traditional rock and roll, the Rock categories at the Grammys seem to get progressively weirder. See: this field for “Best Rock Song,” which includes progressive metal old guard Tool, blues rockers Gary Clark, Jr. and Brittany Howard, dance pop band The 1975 and indie pop stalwarts Vampire Weekend. I’m at an impasse because “Harmony Hall” is easily my favorite song of the bunch, but it’s not a Rock song. If we’re giving Rock awards out, then the only sensible winner is Tool’s 10-minute opus “Fear Inoculum,” which is the best song of any nominee not named Vampire Weekend. However, I expect “This Land” to take it, and I won’t complain if so. All this being said, was there really no room to be made for The Black Keys or The Raconteurs, who re-emerged in terrific fashion this year.
Best Alternative Album
Anima – Thom Yorke
Assume Form – James Blake
Father of the Bride – Vampire Weekend
i,i – Bon Iver
U.F.O.F. – Big Thief
Will Win: i,i,
Could Win: Father of the Bride
Should Win: Assume Form
Anything BUT: Anima
Snubbed: Help Us Stranger - The Raconteurs
Best Alternative Album rarely gets airtime on the ceremony but year after year, is sneakily one of my favorite categories of the year. That’s no different in 2020, as three albums that were ranked among my Best of 2019 are nominated here. I expect the favorites would be Bon Iver or Vampire Weekend, considering they are also nominated for the general Album of the Year category. Between those two, Bon Iver seems to have more fans within the Recording Academy, so I’d put my money on them. I’d be delighted to be wrong in favor of James Blake’s brilliant Assume Form winning; it won’t happen, but a man can dream.
Best Pop Solo Performance
"7 Rings" – Ariana Grande
"bad guy" – Billie Eilish
"Spirit" - Beyoncé
"Truth Hurts" – Lizzo
"You Need To Calm Down" – Taylor Swift
Will Win: "bad guy"
Could Win: "You Need To Calm Down"
Should Win: "Spirit"
Anything BUT: "7 Rings"
Snubbed: "thank u, next" - Ariana Grande
This category usually features some of the biggest names in pop culture, and that is the case this year, too. In fact, the five nominees provide a fascinating overview of "this decade in female pop stars." Taylor Swift and Beyoncé, two women who will forever be remembered as pop icons, end the decade as famous (if not more so, somehow) as they started it. Ariana Grande burst onto the scene midway through the decade and rose to the top of the game in recent years. Then of course, this year marked the breakthrough of Lizzo and Billie Eilish, two pioneering pop stars charting very different styles of music. Given the amount of star power nominated, I genuinely have no clue who wins this one. I think Billie is gearing up to have a large night, so the smartest money is on her, but of course, "Truth Hurts" was equally omnipresent in 2019. In addition, this may be Taylor's only chance at snagging a Grammy tonight, and the overtly pro-LGBT message of "You Need To Calm Down" might be enough to win voters over. The only real bummer would be if "7 Rings" won; as terrific an artist as Grande can be, this is easily one of her worst tracks, and it begs the question: why wasn't her far superior, titular single the one nominated? In a sentence I didn't think I'd ever write, Beyoncé is a real longshot to win this one, but considering it's likely the only chance to see her terrific work on the Lion King soundtrack recognized, I hope she pulls off the upset.
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
"Boyfriend" – Ariana Grande and Social House
"Old Town Road" – Li'l Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus
"Señorita" - Camila Cabello and Shawn Mendes
"Sucker" – Jonas Brothers
"Sunflower" – Post Malone and Swae Lee
Will Win: "Old Town Road"
Could Win: "Señorita"
Should Win: "Sucker"
Anything BUT: "Señorita"
Snubbed: "Only Human" - Jonas Brothers
Unsurprisingly, this category also includes some real star power, with collaborations between some of the biggest names in recent pop culture history. It'd be a shock if anything but the super-smash "Old Town Road" won this, but I suppose recency bias could help power couple Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello's "Señorita" make a late push. It's hard to be too mad about any of these delightfully catchy tunes winning, but it sure would be nice, in honor of their 2019 renaissance, to see the JoBros win one tonight. In this case, that would mean "Sucker" winning, because their actual best single "Only Human" isn't nominated.
Best Vocal Pop Album
The Lion King: The Gift – Beyoncé
Lover – Taylor Swift
No. 6 Collaborations Project – Ed Sheeran
thank u, next – Ariana Grande
When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? – Billie Eilish
Will Win: When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?
Could Win: Lover
Should Win: thank u, next
Anything BUT: No. 6 Collaborations Project
Snubbed: Heard It In A Past Life - Maggie Rogers
Four of the five women discussed in the Pop Solo category above see another nomination for their entire album, but where Lizzo bows out (her Cuz I Love You was instead nominated-- and will almost surely win --for Best Urban Contemporary Album), 2018 winner Ed Sheeran pops in. His uneven collaboration project is clearly the weak link here, though, in a loaded field. Eilish's album is, objectively, the best album of the bunch and is probably the most likely to win, but don't be surprised to see this award given to Taylor Swift, as the well-received Lover was snubbed in the General awards, where Eilish is likely to clean up. I'll be thrilled for Beyoncé to pull off an upset here too, but if we're being honest, in terms of "pop vocals," nobody is wearing that crown better than Ariana Grande these days.
It figures to be a big night for 18-year old alt-pop star Billie Eilish, but her performance within the Pop categories might be a barometer for any success (or lack thereof) in the General awards.
Best Rap Song
"Bad Idea" – YBN Cordae featuring Chance The Rapper
"Gold Roses" – Rick Ross featuring Drake
"A Lot" – 21 Savage featuring J Cole
"Racks In The Middle" – Nipsey Hussle featuring Roddy Ricch and Hit-Boy
"Suge" – DaBaby
Will Win: "Racks In The Middle"
Could Win: "A Lot"
Should Win: "Suge"
Anything BUT: "Gold Roses"
Snubbed: "A BOY IS A GUN*" - Tyler, The Creator
With somewhat disappointing releases from Eminem and Chance the Rapper, and no Kendrick Lamar, Jay-Z, Travis Scott, or Cardi B material this year, this is perhaps the most low-key set of nominees the Rap awards have seen in some time. That said, expect the recent tragic loss of Nipsey Hussle, as well as the acclaim he held even prior to his death, to be enough to earn him a posthumous win tonight (and perhaps two, as "Racks In The Middle" is also nominated for Best Rap Performance). Emotional pull aside, I'd like to see this award go to DaBaby's bop "Suge," and I'd really like for just one of Tyler, the Creator's terrific tracks off his release IGOR to have been nominated.
Best Rap Album
Championships – Meek Mill
I Am > I Was – 21 Savage
IGOR – Tyler, the Creator
The Lost Boy – YBN Cordae
Revenge of the Dreamers III – Dreamville
Will Win: IGOR
Could Win: I Am > I Was
Should Win: IGOR
Anything BUT: I Am > I Was
Snubbed: Eve - Rapsody
The field for Best Rap Album tonight is fascinating, due to the aforementioned lack of big names. The well-respected J Cole is a major part of the collaboration project Dreamville, of course, but given how under the radar Revenge of the Dreamers was, it's hard to foresee it winning. Rapsody's Eve, the best-reviewed Rap album of the year was shockingly not even nominated. I personally found Tyler, the Creator's IGOR the best Rap release of 2019, and in fact was disappointed it wasn't nominated for Album of the Year. Given how many people share my opinion, and especially the fact that he's-- somewhat surprisingly --been announced as a performer tonight, I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll get the W for this award tonight. That said, it's not a given, and if somebody else is going to beat him to it, it may be 21 Savage, who is also very popular with 'the youths' and might ride a wave of good sentiment in the wake of his much-publicized ICE arrest.
Tyler, the Creator (and his alter ego Igor) will likely put on a wonderfully bizarre performance tonight. Ideally, he'll also be able to receive a statue for Best Rap Album.
GENERAL
Best New Artist
Billie Eilish
Black Pumas
Li'l Nas X
Lizzo
Maggie Rogers
Rosalía
Tank and the Bangas
Yola
Will Win: Billie Eilish
Could Win: Li'l Nas X OR Lizzo
Should Win: Maggie Rogers
Anything BUT: Li'l Nas X
Should Have Been Nominated: DaBaby and Megan Thee Stallion
Best New Artist is a fascinating category most every year. It almost always features some names that are destined to be future stars in the Country, Pop, and Rap worlds. Often times, however, the winner is somewhat inexplicable, spawning the running joke of the Best New Artist Curse. This year, even with the expansion to 8 nominees, is as exhilarating a contest as I can think of in recent history. Where Dua Lipa and Alessia Cara where pretty obvious winners the last two years by virtue of being the biggest pop stars of the bunch, the three most-nominated artists of the night (Lizzo, Billie Eilish, and Li'l Nas X) are all nominated here. It'd be a shock to see anyone other than one of those three win, and you have to imagine the 18-year old game-changer is the favorite, but in further proof that 2019 was the year of the newcomer, there are some terrific names elsewhere on the ballot: beloved Funk group Tank and the Bangas, Flamenco/Pop crossover sensation Roaslía, and new indie pop starlet Maggie Rogers. There are even some terrific new names from 2019 that didn't make the ballot, such as Rap breakouts DaBaby and Megan Thee Stallion. It will never happen, but given that Rogers was one of the best revelations of the year, and wasn't nominated anywhere else, I'd love to see her pull the stunning upset in this category.
Song Of The Year
"Always Remember Us This Way" - Lady Gaga
"bad guy" - Billie Eilish
"Bring My Flowers Now" - Tanya Tucker
"Hard Place" - H.E.R.
"Lover" - Taylor Swift
"Norman fucking Rockwell" - Lana Del Rey
"Someone You Loved" - Lewis Capaldi
"Truth Hurts" - Lizzo
Will Win: “bad guy"
Could Win: “Lover” OR "Truth Hurts"
Should Win: “Hard Place”
Anything BUT: “Someone You Loved”
Should Have Been Nominated: "Earfquake" - Tyler, The Creator AND "Harmony Hall" - Vampire Weekend
If you've kept up with The Couch, you know I did a full breakdown of the nominees for this category last week. As I stated there, the odds-on favorite is "bad guy," Billie Eilish's mega-hit. Had it not been for "Old Town Road," which isn't nominated here, "bad guy" would have been the biggest sensation of 2019, and as such, it's likely the winner tonight. That said, given that this is more of a "music and lyrics" award than Record of the Year is, don't be shocked to see this go to Lizzo's ubiquitous anthem "Truth Hurts," nor to Taylor Swift's heartfelt "Lover." I really think the Recording Academy might do their best to spread the wealth around the female pop starlets tonight, and as it pertains here, no qualms from me if it means the insipid "Someone You Loved" not winning. That said, I'd love a H.E.R. stunner in this category, as "Hard Place" is moving, soulful and meaningful. I also would have loved to see a Rap contender to continue on the legacy of defending winner "This Is America."
Record Of The Year
"7 Rings" - Ariana Grande
"bad guy" - Billie Eilish
"Hard Place" - H.E.R.
"Hey, Ma" - Bon Iver
"Old Town Road" - Li'l Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus
"Sunflower" - Post Malone and Swae Lee
"Talk" - Khalid
"Truth Hurts" - Lizzo
Will Win: “Old Town Road”
Could Win: “bad guy” OR "Truth Hurts"
Should Win: “Old Town Road”
Anything BUT: “7 Rings”
Should Have Been Nominated: "Barefoot In The Park" - James Blake featuring Rosalía AND "Only Human" - Jonas Brothers
I also previewed this one! "This Is America" also won this award last year, but though it is not outside the realm of possibility for "bad guy" or "Truth Hurts," I really do not expect a double winner tonight. The main reason for this is "Old Town Road." The Rap/Country/Pop smash by little-known artist Li'l Nas X, with help from Billy Ray Cyrus, broke all sorts of records thanks to its extensive stay at Billboard's #1 spot, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a venue that wasn't pumping it through its speakers at some point this year. It's likely even more of a shoo-in winner than similar sensations "Despacito" (which ended up losing to Bruno Mars in 2018) and "Uptown Funk" (which won in 2016...Bruno Mars again), but again, given the years they had, it wouldn't be impossible to see Lizzo or Billie Eilish to pop up with a win. Honestly, I'm a fan of all of these songs except for "7 Rings," whose shittiness has already been discussed in great detail, so my only complaints have to do with who isn't nominated. It's a production award, and James Blake has featured some of the most innovative production in recent years. It would have been delightful to see his multilingual collaboration with Rosalía featured.
Album Of The Year
7 – Li'l Nas X
Cuz I Love You – Lizzo
Father of the Bride - Vampire Weekend
i,i, – Bon Iver
I Used To Know Her – H.E.R.
Norman Fucking Rockwell! – Lana Del Rey
thank u, next - Ariana Grande
When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? - Billie Eilish
Will Win: Cuz I Love You
Could Win: i,i OR When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?
Should Win: Cuz I Love You
Anything BUT: 7
Should Have Been Nominated: Homecoming: The Live Album - Beyoncé AND IGOR - Tyler, the Creator
As I discussed in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this honestly is a wide open race. There are really only two nominees which I cannot see winning, and that is, for the second consecutive year, H.E.R.'s album, as well as Li'l Nas X's divisive EP. Would it be a surprise to see a winner not named Billie Eilish or Lizzo, queens of the nominations? Sure. But apart from 7 and I Used To Know Her, all nominated albums have at least a 9-1 chance, per betting odds from GoldDerby. But, as huge as Eilish and Lizzo have been this year, both artist's styles are unique and thus different enough that it's hard to see either one of them as surefire winners the way Adele and Bruno Mars, beloved across multiple generations and segments of the music industry, were in back-to-back years. Those two were big artist, sure, but also made music that was easier for older and, ahem, whiter members of the voting body to enjoy. Even given Country's proclivity for being snubbed at the Grammys, eventual winner Kacey Musgraves was pegged as the favorite pre-show for a similar reason: Golden Hour was just a pleasant listen, start to finish.
With all this in mind, the Academy could go in several different directions here. They have two titans of the indie/folk/alternative scene in Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend. Don't be shocked to see either one of them get an Album of the Year victory, a mixture of a nod to the indie scene and a career achievement award, in the manner of Arcade Fire's upset in 2011. Between those two, my guess is Bon Iver would be better positioned to be that candidate, but keep an eye out for the Best Alternative Album award to perhaps give you an idea of the frontrunner in that lane.
I expect several Grammys voters might be turned off by Lana Del Rey's brazen and explicit attitude in her songwriting, and Ariana Grande's zero-fucks-given sexuality and apparent apathy towards the music ceremony itself over the last several years. That said, there's no denying the overwhelming critical reception of the former nor the nationwide mass appeal of the latter, and so it's certainly possible for either one of these pop stars to be the night's ultimate winner.
But, this is a predictions piece, and after whiffing on my bold predictions the last two years (Lorde did not in fact win the award two years ago, nor did Drake last year), it's time to revert to the two betting favorites for my ultimate deliberation. Nearly all outlets tip Billie Eilish's When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? to win the biggest award of the night, and it's not hard to see why. Billie was one of Music's biggest stories in 2019, and her debut album didn't just sell crazy amounts, it garnered extremely positive reviews as it signified a new direction of pop music for this younger generation. And yet? I can't shake the feeling that this night might end up belonging to the multitalented Lizzo, who was easily the star of the summer, if not the star of 2019. There's no way around it: the Grammys have been terrible at recognizing black artists for major awards, and as such, it's understandable why many might be skeptical of the singer/rapper's chances against a field of largely white contenders. But two things make me optimistic about the potential for Cuz I Love You to beat all comers tonight: for one, the Grammys are making a little progress. After years of General award nominees that resembled the inevitably white field of Oscar nominees, black artists, particularly Hip-Hop artists, have seen significantly more representation in the last four years in particular. While those haven't translated to Album of the Year wins yet (and have resulted in some seriously ridiculous snubs), last year saw a breakthrough of sorts with "This Is America" winning both Song of the Year and Record of the Year, becoming the first Rap song to win either of those awards, let alone sweep them. But perhaps more pertinently to these awards, Lizzo possesses the same multigenerational appeal that someone like Adele does. Is she a little more brash and explicit? Sure. But it's hard for any person, regardless of age, sex, race or orientation to listen to Lizzo perform and not sing along, dance along and laugh at her infectious stage presence. She's a unique talent who has worked her way up through the industry and I would not be surprised if she's won a large amount of hearts in the Recording Academy.
After a year that announced Lizzo as a cultural force, Cuz I Love You just might take top honors tonight, and it would be a deserving winner: heartfelt, vulnerable, and body-positive in lyricism, and catchy, accessible and delightfully energetic in musicality.
To horribly paraphrase the artist, major Grammys might not just be "for skinny hoes" any more. Don't be surprised to see Lizzo reign supreme with top honors at tonight's ceremony.