Re-Seeding The Sweet 16
We were thisclose to one of the all-time upsets in college basketball.
I wrote this very piece last year, and boldly proclaimed the early stages of the 2018 tournament the wildest in history, which seemed fitting given the general season-long madness that year in basketball was. One year later, we once again have a tournament that is transpiring much the way the preceding season did; unfortunately, this time it's just a lot less fun for the everyday viewer.
There hasn't been a clear-cut #1 team for most of this season, but what there has been is a clear tier system of quality teams across the country, a group considerably more defined than the freeflowing Top 15 of last year. Fittingly, the tournament has also seen a clear separation from the top teams in the field to those beneath them.
Last year, a whopping 9 of the top 16 seeds didn't even progress to the second weekend. This time around, the top 12 seeded teams have qualified thus far, for only the second time ever since the expansion to 64 teams, and 15 of the top 18 make up the Sweet Sixteen. Only 12th-seeded Oregon is a surprise thus far, the only double-digit seed to still be alive. A Pac-12 Tournament Champion isn't a typical candidate for a Cinderella story, but we'll take anything these days.
Lest you think I am March's answer to Ebenezer Scrooge, I will concede there certainly have been entertaining moments from the first two rounds of play.
Liberty upset Mississippi State in a thrilling, back-and-forth game
Maryland played two thrillers, staving off an upset bid from Belmont, and then falling just short on their own upset effort against LSU
Ja Morant and co. delighted in 12th-seeded Murray State's romp over favored Marquette
Auburn tried their darndest to blow their seemingly solid lead against New Mexico State, and then the Aggies returned the favor by rejecting the countless opportunities to pull out the win in the final seconds
13th-seeded UC-Irvine scored the biggest seed upset of the tournament by knocking off Kansas State
#1 North Carolina, #1 Virginia and #2 Michigan State trailed their 16th and 15th-seeded opponents at halftime in the first round
Iowa fought back from a 24-point halftime deficit to force overtime against Tennessee in a ridiculous affair
Mid-major darlings Wofford burst onto the scene with a convincing first round win, before taking heavily favored Kentucky to the wire in the 2nd round
Oh, and of course, there was this: the #1 overall seed and heavy tournament favorites coming within an absolute whisker of not even reaching the Sweet 16. UCF's epic failure to hold on to their late lead (and the refs' epic inability to blow a whistle on Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett or Javin DeLaurier in the final minute) is already this tournament's greatest tragedy. That's not just my Tar Heel blue heart talking-- the postseason's top team being taken out would have been the exact jolt needed to raise the stakes in this college basketball postseason. Instead, it feels like we're crawling toward an inevitable Final 4 filled with Duke and 3 other high seeds.
Anyways, with the Sweet 16 kicking off on Thursday night, here's an attempt at re-seeding all 16 teams, not just based on the teams' quality coming into the tournament, but also as if their seasons transpired entirely in March:
1-SEEDS
Gonzaga ([1], 4th overall)
Gonzaga is undoubtedly the most overlooked of the 1-seeds, as a result of both skepticism about their true quality and their fairly uneventful bracket. But they quietly have been the only 1 seed that have wholly looked the part thus far, never breaking a sweat in the first round, and then controlling a talented Baylor team from start to finish.
Michigan (2)
Also in that sleepy West bracket? 2nd-seeded Michigan, whose high National Championship pedigree in the early season took a tumble in February and March, particularly thanks to a 0-3 sweep at the hands of rival Michigan State. It might be time to break out the bets on the Wolverines again; they've looked the part in dismantling Montana and a very hot and dangerous Florida side, and are in their 3rd consecutive Sweet 16.
North Carolina ([1], 3rd overall)
UNC found themselves in completely uncharted territory on Friday night, trailing 16th-seeded Iona by 5 at halftime. It was the result of the Gaels shooting something like 23 for 24 from 3 in the first half (don't quote my figures), but ever since that halftime deficit, the Heels have looked like the 1 seed they are, overwhelming both their initial foes and Pac-12 champions Washington with tough interior defense and lightning quick transition offense.
Virginia ([1], 2nd overall)
For the second consecutive year, Virginia trailed their 16th-seeded opponent at halftime, and many a Cavalier fan was surely had traumatic flashbacks to their famous loss to UMBC just last year. Thankfully for them, UVA came out in the 2nd half of the game prepared and focused on shredding those ghosts of 2018, and they haven't looked back, taking their stifling defense to previously sharpshooting Oklahoma.
2-SEEDS
Purdue (3)
The Boilermakers are typically an easy pick for "high seed most likely to disappoint in the tournament." If that sounds harsh, know that they have been a Top 5 seed 6 times in the last decade, and have yet to make it past the Sweet Sixteen. However, if they keep their current form up, Purdue are ready to buck the trend. They opened with an ugly win, but followed that grindfest up by taking the defending national champions (and popular Final Four dark horse pick) Villanova to the meat-cleaver. Purdue are ready to prove some folks wrong.
Houston (3)
As if it weren't hard enough getting respect for competing in the American conference, now Houston has to deal with getting plopped in the bracket with big names North Carolina, Kentucky, and Kansas. Not the Cougars mind; they seem to play some of their best ball when people aren't paying them attention. After two dominant victories to open up their account, maybe people will begin tuning in to watch this tough side.
Texas Tech (3)
Texas Tech is cut from the same cloth as Houston: just a tough, well-coached team that plays terrific defense and has some remarkable talent on offense. After taking a little while to get going against Northern Kentucky, the Red Raiders started to take over and carried that momentum into a remarkably impressive performance against a sneakily talented Buffalo team. Tech-Michigan might be the most intriguing matchup of the next round.
Michigan State (2)
Most have been singing Michigan State's praises for their dominant win over conference foes Minnesota (and deservedly so) but are conveniently ignoring how competitive they allowed 15th-seed Bradley to be with them for 37 of the 40 minutes in the first round. Still, this is a tough team that continues to overachieve despite injuries to multiple significant players.
3-SEEDS
Oregon (12)
Let's take the cynical approach first: Oregon has reached the Sweet Sixteen on the backs of winning the tournament of the weakest major conference, beating the presumed weakest 5 seed in the field, and then facing off against a 13-seed in the 2nd round. Now let's get real: the Ducks are playing really good basketball, some of the best in the country, and have returned to their early-season Top 20 form, even without star big man Bol Bol. It's not a stretch to say Virginia ought to be on high upset alert against these guys.
Duke ([1], 1st overall)
The #1 overall team in the tournament opened with a game against North Dakota State that was a closer affair than it probably should have been. No harm, no foul, as Zion and co ultimately blew the Bison out, and rivals Virginia and North Carolina also underwent nervy moments again 16-seeds. What's concerning, then, from a Duke perspective is that they followed that up with another incredibly flat performance against #9 UCF. The Blue Devils never could quite put the undermanned Golden Knights away, and as a result, came about half an inch away from a stunningly early exit in the tournament. The individual pieces of ridiculous talent may very well still be enough to lift this team to the top of the podium in April, but they are clearly not the best team at the moment.
Kentucky (2)
The Wildcats have had to play without star forward P.J. Washington, and their interior offense has suffered as a result. You'd be forgiven if you missed that fact while Kentucky was blowing the doors off of Abilene Christian, but against Wofford, UK had to shake out of a fairly pedestrian effort to beat the 7-seed despite holding the nation's best 3-point shooter to an 0-of-12 clip. Kentucky's still got a high ceiling, but they will need Washington back and/or considerably more toughness to get past Houston in the next round.
Auburn (5)
Auburn has spent most of the year performing a Jekyll and Hyde act. Why should that change in the tournament? The Tigers rolled into the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the country, fresh off an SEC Tournament title, and promptly relied on miracle misses from New Mexico State to avoid an epic collapse. Just when everyone were ready to write them off, pointing to next opponent Kansas' dominance in the first round, Auburn absolutely blitzed the Jayhawks, destroying them from the 3-point line (they reached 80 points with about 10 minutes left in the game). So, which Auburn shows up against North Carolina Friday evening? It could be a very fun night for the Tar Heels, or a VERY long one, depending on the answer to that question.
4-SEEDS
Florida State (4)
Florida State, once a perennial tournament underachiever, is beginning to become more of a mainstay in these latter stages. The Seminoles have made it this far by beating two of the most enticing mid-majors in the field, edging out Anthony Lamb and Vermont in a hostile environment in Hartford, before spanking Ja Morant and Murray State. They've proven they can tough out the furious challenges from the little guys, no can Florida State punch above their weight and oust Gonzaga for the second year in a row?
Tennessee (2)
Which Tenneseee to consider at this point? The one that has shown up for the first 30 minutes of both of their tournament games, or the one that has shown in the last 10? After surviving a heart-in-mouth affair against 15th-seeded Colgate, the Volunteers looked to be back in business against Iowa, jumping out to a 44-19 lead. Yet, they conspired to allow the Hawkeyes back in the game, ultimately being taken to overtime, where they needed some deadly perimeter shots and fortunate calls to grind out the W. This is a very good, very experienced, very balanced team that has every right to expect to be a contender. They must show tougher mental strength, though.
LSU (3)
A 3-seed that has made its way into the Sweet 16 on the backs of an average margin of victory of 3.5 usually isn't turning too many heads. But that's only telling part of the story for LSU. With the wiretap scandal surrounding head coach Will Wade, the Tigers are playing with an interim coach, and have desperately been looking to regain the momentum they generated in the heat of the SEC season. This fact led many to peg Yale as a surefire upset pick in the first round. Yet, LSU controlled proceedings for much of their Ivy League battle, and again showed their toughness by withstanding the storm of a late Maryland surge to put them through to their first Sweet 16 in nearly 15 years. The Tigers haven't quite proven themselves yet, but they will be a tough out for anyone.
Virginia Tech (4)
This ranking is not to intended to signify Virginia Tech as a weak team. Rather, in a field of teams that haven't proven a whole lot so far, they've arguably proved the least. After barnstorming Saint Louis in the first half of their Round of 64 matchup, the Hokies went stone cold in the 2nd half, and never really regained the mojo, relying on tough defense and terrific post play from Kerry Blackshear to grind out a win over 12th-seeded Liberty. Still, if Jsutin Robinson and co. can find the shooting form they are all capable of, the Hokies will be a tough foe for anyone, including a certain #1 team they play this Friday.
Updated Final Four Picks:
Duke (South)
Texas Tech (West)
Tennessee (East)
North Carolina (Midwest)