2019 Grammy Predictions
Tonight, the 61st Grammys Ceremony commence! After a one year interlude in New York City, the awards return this year to the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Though the awards have often been besotted by criticisms of valuing commercial success over critically acclaimed music (criticisms I find valid, for what it’s worth), the show remains the premier music awards show. And, though they often evade glory, many wonderful and deserving artists and bands are typically nominees, and that is no different this year. If you want to read a full preview, I basically already did that, so read that here!
In addition, if you’re curious about all the nominees, you can find them listed nicely here. But this is devoted to my best guess as to what will win. I’m not guaranteeing a high success rate because, let’s be honest, who knows what will win? Sometimes they give it to Outkast. Sometimes they give it to Robert Plant and Allison Krauss. Sometimes they give it to Beck. Other times they give all the awards to Taylor Swift, Adele, and Bruno Mars. All I can do is try! Here goes:
GENRE
Best Music Video
“APESHIT" - The Carters (Ricky Saiz, director)
“I'm Not Racist” - Joyner Lucas (Joyner Lucas & Ben Proulx, co-directors)
“Mumbo Jumbo” - Tierra Whack (Marco Prestini, director)
“Pynk” - Janelle Monáe (Emma Westenburg, director)
“This Is America” - Childish Gambino (Hiro Murai, director)
Will Win: “This Is America"
Could Win: “I'm Not Racist”
Should Win: “This Is America”
Anything BUT: “Mumbo Jumbo”
This is an underrated category every year, especially as video media becomes increasingly relevant in being partnered with music. This year, the field is absolutely stacked. Nearly any other year, "APESHIT," featuring Beyoncé, Jay-Z, and countless other dancers taking over The Louvre, or "Pynk," featuring Janelle Monáe's artistic choreography for her female empowerment track, would be shoo-ins. Even the least-known and perhaps least-impressive nominee, "Mumbo Jumbo," is still a fascinating, unnerving watch. But this year belongs to "This Is America," one of the most stunning music videos in recent history. Childish Gambino took the nation by storm at the beginning of the summer with a political video several layers thick in symbolism. It demands repeated viewing, which you cannot often say for music videos. The ONLY way I see this one not winning is if the old heads in the Recording Academy opt for Joyner Lucas' "I'm Not Racist," an equally political video, but one less complex and perhaps a bit more palatable for some.
Among the issues depicted in the music video for "This Is America": slavery, police brutality, gun control, appropriation of black culture, mental health, and much more. I'd be willing to wager you could watch the video 50 times and notice something new each time.
Best Alternative Album
American Utopia – David Byrne
Colors – Beck
Masseduction – St. Vincent
Tranquility Hotel Base & Casino – Arctic Monkeys
Utopia – Björk
Will Win: Colors
Could Win: Masseduction
Should Win: Masseduction
Anything BUT: Colors
The award for Best Alternative Album often includes some of the strongest albums of the last 15 months, and this time around is no different. St. Vincent's Masseduction and Beck's Colors topped many year-end Best of 2017 lists, and Arctic Monkeys' galactic return with Tranquility Hotel Base & Casino narrowly missed my Top 10 of 2018. Alternative icons David Byrne and Björk both released highly acclaimed albums pertaining to 'Utopia.' In a crowded field, you've got to imagine the favorite is Beck, who has a history of Grammy love and saw the most exposure of any nominated album. Nothing against Beck, who I like a lot, but a win for Colors would be a shame. Not, of course, because it's not good, but it is likely the least impressive of all nominees, and the Grammys have already awarded Beck enough, when he perhaps hasn't deserved it. St. Vincent's late 2017 release was a trippy, diverse, catchy delight, and should take this award if there's any justice.
Best Pop Solo Performance
"Better Now" – Post Malone
"Colors" – Beck
"God Is A Woman" - Ariana Grande
"Havana (Live)" – Camila Cabello
"Joanne (Where Do You Think You're Goin'?)" – Lady Gaga
Will Win: "Havana"
Could Win: "Better Now"
Should Win: "God Is A Woman"
Anything BUT: "Better Now"
This category usually features some of the biggest names in pop culture, and though that is somewhat the case this year, in a year dominated by Rap and Hip-Hop, this nominee list is a little...underwhelming. That being said, as catchy as "Havana" is, and as vapidly pleasing Post Malone is to the common ear, I expect these two to duke it out, but to me there's a clear winner. "God Is A Woman" is one of the best radio songs of the year, and the strongest track from 2018's strongest Pop release.
Best Vocal Pop Album
Beautiful Trauma – P!nk
Camila– Camila Cabello
Meaning Of Life – Kelly Clarkson
Reputation – Taylor Swift
Shawn Mendes – Shawn Mendes
Sweetener – Ariana Grande
Will Win: Reputation
Could Win: Sweetener
Should Win: Sweetener
Anything BUT: Reputation
There are some very big names competing for the biggest award within the Pop genre: 3 different women who have won this award before (P!nk, Clarkson, Swift), and 3 relative young'uns being pegged as the future of Pop music (Cabello, Grande, Mendes). Somehow all of these candidates avoided an Album of the Year nomination, even in an expanded field of 8, but I still expect Grammy Queen and likely crowd favorite Taylor Swift to win this one. Reputation wasn't her most acclaimed album, and speaking with not a small amount of bias, featured a slew of downright horrible singles. But, it spawned a massive worldwide stadium tour and Swift's fanbase is bigger than ever. That I expect Reputation to win will make it no less painful when it does, however; Ariana Grande's Sweetener was the most sundry and original Pop release of the year, and surely deserved an Album of the Year nod.
Even if she's-- shockingly --not nominated for any of the major awards, it'd be safe to expect Taylor Swift to take home at least a couple undeserved Grammys on the night.
Best Rap Song
"God's Plan" – Drake
"King's Dead" – Kendrick Lamar, Jay Rock, Future & James Blake
"Lucky You" – Eminem feat. Joyner Lucas
"Sicko Mode" – Travis Scott feat. Drake, Big Hawk & Swae Lee
"Win" – Jay Rock
Will Win: "God's Plan"
Could Win: "King's Dead"
Should Win: "Sicko Mode"
Anything BUT: "Lucky You"
In another banner year for Hip-Hop, the Rap categories will provide some of the most entertaining genre awards of the night. The Best Song field features two of the biggest hits of the year with "God's Plan" and "Sicko Mode." Both hits, unsurprisingly, involve Drake, the former as the primary and the latter as a featured artist. The other 3 are slightly more surprising nominees, "Lucky You" because it's just not that good of a song (at least in the context of all Rap releases from the last year), and "King's Dead" and "Win" because they were nowhere near the smash singles that several other Kendrick Lamar, Drake, Cardi B and Post Malone songs were. I expect the biggest hit of all, and the one most universally appealing, to take the cake. But it sure would be nice to see "King's Dead" or "Sicko Mode" to win this one. I'm especially partial to the latter because of how fascinating a listen it is, but also because in a perfect World, the spitfire verses of "King's Dead" will be enough to help that track win Best Rap Performance.
Best Rap Album
ASTROWORLD – Travis Scott
Daytona – Pusha T
Invasion Of Privacy – Cardi B
Swimming – Mac Miller
Victory Lap – Nipsey Hussle
Will Win: Invasion Of Privacy
Could Win: Swimming
Should Win: ASTROWORLD
Anything BUT: Swimming
The field for Best Rap Album tonight is fascinating, because the Album of the Year category features 3 Rap Albums, 4 if you count Post Malone's Pop-Hop Beerbongs & Bentleys. Yet, that one, Scorpion and Black Panther are nowhere to be found in this category, and neither is Beyoncé's and Jay-Z's Everything Is Love. Perhaps there was just enough R&B and Pop influences on those album's tracklist for the Academy to not consider them purely Rap releases, but none of them make appearances in the field for Best R&B, Pop or Urban Contemporary Albums either. Regardless, what that means is that this award is Cardi B's to lose, as Invasion Of Privacy is one of the favorites to take home the general Album of the Year trophy, and faces fairly underwhelming competition in this particular race. I suppose it's not out of the question that the late Mac Miller could win a posthumous award for his well-received Swimming, but you don't often see Grammys prone to sentimental gestures as such. It's the year of Cardi, which I applaud, but ASTROWORLD is drastically under-appreciated. Travis Scott's album was one of the best of 2018, and I will be cheering for it to pull the upset tonight.
The odds are in Cardi B's favor to become the first female rapper to win the Best Rap Album award in 20 years; the only other winner was Lauryn Hill in 1999, who won as part of the hip-hop trio Fugees.
GENERAL
Best New Artist
Bebe Rexha
Chloe x Halle
Dua Lipa
Greta Van Fleet
H.E.R.
Jorja Smith
Luke Combs
Margo Price
Will Win: Dua Lipa
Could Win: Greta Van Fleet OR H.E.R.
Should Win: H.E.R.
Anything BUT: Bebe Rexha
Should Have Been Nominated: Troye Sivan and Kali Uchis
Best New Artist is a fascinating category most every year. It almost always features some names that are destined to be future stars in the Country, Pop, and Rap worlds. Often times, however, the winner is somewhat inexplicable, spawning the running joke of the Best New Artist Curse. This year, as has been frequently discussed, all General category fields were expanded to 8 nominees, which means I reserve the right to expand my prediction of possible winners to a whopping 3, up from the previous 2. This year seems pretty open-shut, however. Many think young newcomer H.E.R.'s nomination for Album of the Year makes her the frontrunner, but they forget about last year, when SZA was nominated for 6 different awards, and thus, pegged as the favorite. Ultimately, the R&B starlet struck out on all 6, and lost Best New Artist to the biggest name of al, Alessia Cara. Though I would love to see H.E.R. avoid the same fate, I expect to see her lose out to British singer Dua Lipa, who has already become a force in the Pop landscape. Don't be too shocked to see a victory from the band Greta Van Fleet, though, as the divisive young group has scored multiple nominations on the night.
Song Of The Year
"All The Stars" - Kendrick Lamar & SZA
"Boo'd Up" - Ella Mai
"God's Plan" - Drake
"In My Blood" - Shawn Mendes
"The Joke" - Brandi Carlile
"The Middle" - Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey
"Shallow" - Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper
"This Is America" - Childish Gambino
Will Win: “Shallow"
Could Win: “The Joke” OR "All The Stars"
Should Win: “This Is America”
Anything BUT: “The Middle”
Should Have Been Nominated: "Make Me Feel" (Janelle Monáe) and "Slow Burn" (Kacey Musgraves)
If you've kept up with The Couch, you know I did a full breakdown of the nominees for this category last week. As I stated there, the odds-on favorite is "Shallow," the hit track from the wildly popular film A Star Is Born. Given its omnipresence the last few months, and its universal appeal to all voters, it's near-impossible to see any other song winning this award. If there is to be an upset, though, it might come in the form of voters wanting to reward another Oscar-nominated song from a massive film ("All The Stars," from Black Panther), or honor much-respected singer-songwriter Brandi Carlile. I enjoy "Shallow" as much as anyone, but it sure would be great to see a songwriting award go to the most thought-provoking song of the year in "This Is America." And, though both songs would have ultimately lost to Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper anyways, it would have been nice to see representation from Janelle Monáe and Kacey Musgraves, who were the best songwriters in the year 2018.
Record Of The Year
"All The Stars" - Kendrick Lamar & SZA
"God's Plan" - Drake
"I Like It" - Cardi B, Bad Bunny & J Balvin
"The Joke" - Brandi Carlile
"The Middle" - Zedd, Maren Morris & Grey
"Rockstar" - Post Malone feat. 21 Savage
"Shallow" - Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper
"This Is America" - Childish Gambino
Will Win: “Shallow”
Could Win: “This Is America” OR "I Like It"
Should Win: “All The Stars”
Anything BUT: “Rockstar”
Should Have Been Nominated: "God Is A Woman" (Ariana Grande) and "Sicko Mode" (Travis Scott feat. Drake, Big Hawk & Swae Lee)
I also previewed this one! "This Is America" is technically the odds-on favorite here, and spent most of the year with one hand on the trophy, but given the Grammy proclivity for snubbing Hip-Hop in all major categories, as well as the recent trend of double-booking the same artist for both Song and Record of the Year (Bruno Mars and Adele won both awards the last 2 years), I just can't see "Shallow" not winning this one as well. Childish Gambino and Cardi B's popularity make an upset slightly more possible in this category, though. And while I would be happy with either of those winning, in terms of the best production of all the hit songs, which is what the award is supposed to be about, I favor the inspiring "All The Stars." Ariana Grande's and Travis Scott's snubs have been much-discussed in this piece already, but seriously, how do you not include 2 of the best songs to hit mainstream radio this year in this category?
Album Of The Year
Beerbongs & Bentleys – Post Malone
Black Panther: The Album – Various Artists
By The Way, I Forgive You - Brandi Carlile
Dirty Computer – Janelle Monáe
Golden Hour – Kacey Musgraves
H.E.R. – H.E.R.
Invasion Of Privacy - Cardi B
Scorpion - Drake
Will Win: Scorpion
Could Win: Invasion Of Privacy OR Beerbongs & Bentleys
Should Win: Dirty Computer OR Golden Hour
Anything BUT: Beerbongs & Bentleys
Should Have Been Nominated: ASTROWORLD (Travis Scott) and Masseduction (St. Vincent)
As I discussed in my preview of this award (yeah, this one too!), this honestly is a wide open race. There is really only one nominee which I cannot see winning, and that is H.E.R.'s eponymous album. In the past, we have seen the Grammys opt for more of a legacy award over much buzzier candidates, such as when Herbie Hancock beat out the likes of Kanye West and Amy Winehouse. This could propel Brandi Carlile to the front of this pack. There have also been times where they've eschewed the biggest releases for the one that got the musichead critics most excited, exemplified by Daft Punk's victory over Kendrick Lamar, Taylor Swift, and Macklemore. In that vein, it's not hard to imagine Janelle or Kacey picking up the trophy, which would be delightful. Of course, the last three years have belonged to the downright biggest, with Taylor Swift, Adele and Bruno Mars picking up the victories for their mega-releases. In that regard, though it may be the worst-reviewed of all nominees, don't be stunned to see Post Malone win the day with his demure trap music album, which spawned numerous Billboard 100 hits.
One thing that has been consistent, however, has been the Grammys overlooking the Rap contenders for other nominees. Historically, this should knock Drake, Cardi B, and Kendrick Lamar out of contention. But I go back and forth on whether this might finally be the year the Recording Academy sucks it up and decides to honor a Hip-Hop album, something that feels inevitable with the growing presence of Rap. If that is to be the case, you have to imagine it bodes well for Cardi B, who had the best-reviewed Rap album of the year, and would mark a landmark victory for rappers, female artists, and women of color all in one.
Ultimately, if I had to bet, I would guess the Academy will split the difference. They will vote to end the drought of Hip-Hop releases, but Invasion Of Privacy will prove too brash and divisive for many voters, so they will go instead for the biggest name of them all: Drake. Scorpion is a long double album chock full of not just Rap, but R&B; all these features are reminiscent of the last Rap album to win the award, Outkast's Speakerboxx/The Love Below. Drake is, of course, nowhere near as good as Outkast, but that may matter little to the Academy, who has shown of late how much they tend towards the pleasant and straightforward, rather than the harsh, albeit more creative.
Drake, who has refused to perform at the Grammy Awards, very well may win the biggest award of all in absentia.