Champions League Final Prediction

If you had informed me in January that I would be writing a predication piece for 'Soccer's Super Bowl', as I've been terming it for my American friends not-in-the-know, I would not have anticipated struggling so much to do so objectively.

Indeed, in the interest of full disclosure, Liverpool is, always has been, and always will be, my club. And Real Madrid aren't just the club standing in the way of Liverpool's title chase; they are, always have been, and always will be my LEAST favorite club. Way back in August, at the start of this competition, Liverpool was beginning only their 2nd Champions League foray in 8 years, I fantasized about the Reds knocking off Real Madrid to win the trophy. Now, 9 months later, that may actually become a reality.

It's been an incredible ride as a fan-- and, I imagine, as a player --of Liverpool, but everyone would be a bit foolish to be anticipating a magical ending. Real Madrid have long been the titans of European football, but after over a decade without winning the CL, they've really re-established themselves as the Kings of Europe, with 3 Champions League titles in the last 4 years, and a chance today for 4 in 5. What's interesting is that in that same timespan, their domestic performance has varied. In 2014 and 2016, they scraped to the title despite finishing 3rd in Spain's La Liga. Last year, they romped to Champions League glory AND cruised to the top of La Liga. This year is perhaps the most confounding of all: they've had their worst La Liga performance in years, having to fight to even finish in the Top 3, and they really have gone long stretches in the Champions League, too, where their quality has seemed poor, failing to top their group and needing several strokes of luck to advance through the knockout stages. Yet, here they are, on the verge of winning a record 3rd consecutive Champions League, and favored to do so.

Liverpool is another prominent name in world football, but their similarities to Madrid just about stop there. Their last appearance in this match was in 2007, and their last victory was 2005. That may not seem too long of a drought, especially for a club that is yet to win a Premier League title, but when it's typical to see the same 12 or so teams across Europe in the later stages of the tournament, it's a little surprising to see a side with such distance between Finals appearances. Notably, Liverpool has players that were bought on maybe a quarter of the budget spent on teams like Barcelona, like Manchester City, like Manchester United, and yes, like Real Madrid. That's probably not the real figure, but I'm too lazy to google budgets right now...the point is, it's a real Moneyball story with the Reds. Instead of just throwing absurd amounts of cash at the World's best players, Klopp and the front office have made small-to-decently sized investments in players that address a specific point of weakness. Case in point: Andy Robertson (formerly of now-relegated Hull City) and Virgil Van Dijk (formerly of almost-relegated Southampton) were prospects that would not have even caught the eye of the Spanish powers, for example. Yet, those two have helped mend the massive liability that was Liverpool's right-back and center-back positions, respectively. Beyond pedigree and bankroll, though, Liverpool is a surprise finalist this year because it's been such a long time since they've made this kind of splash in their own league. Jürgen Klopp, in only his 2nd full season as Liverpool's manager, has restored the club to a level in which they're competing for the Premier League Top 4 every year, but that does not change the fact that both of the last two years, it's taken a victory on the final day of the season just to secure 4th place.

So, to recap, that's Spain 3rd-best side against England's 4th-best side playing to become....Europe's best side. How did they reach this point, despite being not good enough to win it all domestically? Liverpool did so by making easy work of nearly all comers, from the opening playoff round to the semifinals. Because of finishing 4th Place the year prior, Liverpool had to play a home-and-away tie before even qualifying for the group stage. They made simple work of Hoffenheim, winning the tie 6-3 on aggregate, and then went on to top what was objectively the least impressive group. Group E saw them against Russian champions Spartak Moscow, Slovenian champions Maribor, and Spain's 4th-place side Sevilla. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Reds topped the group without losing a match. They then blistered through the knockout stages, beating Portuguese champions Porto 5-0 in the Round of 16, and English champions Manchester City 5-1 in the quarterfinals, before using a massive 5-2 home win against Roma in the semifinals to hold on to an overall 7-6 victory.

For Real, despite being a better team, the path was much less sure. They found themselves in what was probably the Group of Death, facing English upstarts Tottenham and German 2nd-best Borussia Dortmund. Tottenham actually beat Real in London, and ended up winning the group, though Real still qualified for the next round by virtue of a surprisingly poor Dortmund performance. In the Round of 16, many thought Real would meet their demise as they faced the deliciously talented French champions, Paris Saint-Germain. That would not be the case, as Madrid won both matches of the tie. Their reward for doing so was facing Italian champions Juventus in the Quarterfinals, a rematch of last year's final. After Real won 3-0 in Italy, the tie looked to be all but over, but it took a 97th-minute Ronaldo penalty to avoid a shocking capitulation in the return leg. Their reward for that? facing the German champions Bayern Munich, a rematch of last year's quarterfinal matchup. It was a similar story: Madrid won in Munich in the first leg, appearing as if they'd all but booked their place in Kiev. Yet, when Munich tied the 2nd leg at 2-2, it was a nervous 20 minutes wherein Real nearly conceded the goal that would have killed them multiple times. By the skin of their teeth, they've made it back to the Final.

Many neutrals have cried foul at the two sides' road to the final, as both have needed strokes of good fortune to make it here. Much of that good fortune has, to be fair, consisted of dubious officiating. In Liverpool's case, there were at least 4 missed offsides calls that either upheld Liverpool goals when they shouldn't have counted, or nullified Manchester City and Roma goals when they should have counted. For Real, it was the questionable penalty calls and non-calls. The PK that gave Real the win over Juventus (and had legendary goalie Gianluigi Buffon sent off with a red card) was a soft call at best, and in both legs against Bayern, what appeared to be clear handballs in the box were not given as penalties for the German side.

These protests aside, it can not really be denied that these are the two clubs that deserve to be in the Final. Liverpool may have had an easier run of opponents than their cohorts, but they've stylistically played the best football in this tournament, and it's really not even close. They've knocked in a shocking 46 goals and conceded just 16 in all their matches, and have played high-energy, high-intensity, total team ball. Real may not have had that stylistic prowess or displayed the dominance their teams of the past have, but they undoubtedly have the most impressive resume, and it's not even close. They emerged from the most difficult group to dispatch of the French, Italian, and German champions in succession, and on paper, Liverpool will now probably be the easiest opponent they've faced since Cyprus' APOEL in group play.

So who wins this David vs. Goliath matchup today? Well, the reason why what should be a straightforward expectation has yielded a number of different predictions is that both clubs have been extremely unpredictable this season. Real have at times looked like the most talented side in all of Europe and at other times, have lost to the worst team in Spain. Liverpool have done that thing where they can lose 5-0 to the best team in England, only to later beat them 5-1 in the Champions League. And, with both teams having attack as a strength and defending as a presumed liability, you see why the only prediction most every pundit has agreed on is lots and lots of goals.

The common knowledge is that Madrid have the edge at nearly every position group, making them pound-for-pound the better team. Indeed, ESPN FC, recently revealed their 'Combined XI' for the Final, and 9 of the 11 starters were Madrid players; only Liverpool's star forward Mohamed Salah and 19-year old right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold would start for Madrid, according to those analysts. Call me biased (no really, feel free to), but I would argue this is not necessarily the case. For starters, Liverpool's overall attack is better. Plain and simple. Superstar Cristiano Ronaldo is clearly the best player on the field, but too often this year (and in the Champions League in particular) Real's attacking approach has essentially been "Let's hope Cristiano scores! If not him, maybe a defender will!!" Meanwhile, Liverpool's front 3 of Roberto Firmino, Salah and Sadio Mané have almost equally shared 28 goals and 18 assists in the CL alone. For all the talk about Liverpool's defensive lapses, Real has arguably been worse. Liverpool's defending had two dreadful halves this tournament: the 2nd half at Sevilla, and the 2nd half at Roma (outscored 3-0 in both cases). In all other halves of play, we've conceded 7 total, compared to 40 goals for. Real, meanwhile, has conceded 15 total, and more importantly, has been consistently unreliable. They've managed to keep clean sheets against a grand total of one team (the aforementioned Cypriots, APOEL), and oftentimes, the goals they've conceded have been via inexplicably poor defending. Now, a legitimate counterpoint is that Real faced greater attacking teams than Liverpool did, which is fair and important to recognize. But a total of 1 goal conceded in 4 matches vs. Porto and Manchester City is nothing to sneeze at. Moving it back to the goalkeepers: Loris Karius has made steady progress for Liverpool all season, and Madrid's Keylor Navas, while certainly more talented, has displayed more than one major brain fart of late (i.e. every goal they conceded against Juventus).

This is all a long windup to say: the clear advantage Madrid has, and the one that makes me ultimately believe they will win yet again, is the one in the middle of the park. James Milner, Jordan Henderson and Gini Wijnaldum are all good-to-serviceable midfielders for the Reds, but thinking of them against the likes of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Isco and Marco Asensio should make any Liverpool fan (or Klopp, for that matter) lose sleep at night. I expect Madrid will dominate in midfield, which doesn't necessarily render Liverpool incapable of scoring, as they are one of the better counterattacking teams in the World. But what it does mean is that Madrid will likely be keeping possession and pressure on Liverpool's oft-vulnerable back line, and swallowing up the middle of the field before Milner or Henderson have a chance to push the ball up to the dynamic front 3. The key for Liverpool will need to be Salah and Mané; if they can be effective enough on the wings to either a. catch one of Madrid's outside backs out of position, or b. attract enough attention to open up proceedings for Firmino in the middle, then it will be a very interesting match. If not, or if Liverpool can't put away what might be few shots on goal, it could be a long day for them.

I want to believe Liverpool will take the crown today, and I think they can. Beyond the aforementioned tactical possibilities, this side has had a "team of destiny" feel about it throughout the Champions League. But I need to make a rational prediction, and though my heart is trying to drown it out, my head says Madrid's advantage at midfield, and veteran experience of being at this stage many times before, leads to what may be a comfortable victory.

I hope against hope that I'm wrong, but I'll say: Real Madrid, 3-1.