College Football 2k18: The Preview
We're so close, y'all.
Just one week away from the most wonderful time of the year. (Yes, I know games technically start tonight, but no matter how much half-hearted promotion ESPN tries to push on us, you and I know that Wyoming beating New Mexico State at 10:30 P.M. doesn't count as the start of College Football.)
There are thorough college football season previews everywhere, in both web and print. So why read this one? Because nobody knows college football more than fat guys who have never played the game but like watching from their couches.
We'll go conference-by-conference:
ACC
The Favorite:
Clemson
The Challenger:
Miami
The Dark Horse:
Florida State
Clemson and Alabama have quickly become College Football's version of the Cavs and Warriors, respectively. The former might not quite be up to Alabama's ridiculous level of talent, depth, and consistency quite yet, but the Tigers are pretty dang close. Until someone proves otherwise, they will likely be the default preseason favorite for years to come.
If Clemson is to slip up this year, the teams most likely to take advantage would have to be one of the Florida teams. Florida State had an incredibly mediocre year last season, one that began on the back of an injury to starting QB DeAndre Francois, and ended with coach Jimbo Fisher skipping town. The rebuild process probably won't take too long, though; exciting young coach Willie Taggart inherits a healthy and hungry Francois, and an already talent-laden team that's been reinforced by a Top 10 recruiting class.
The Coastal division, per usual, will likely be both wide open and not very good. This is exemplified by the preseason projections of my beloved Tar Heels, who-- coming off a 3-9 season --have been predicted to finish everywhere from 2nd to 7th in the division. With question marks abound for each team, and in the absence of more information, we have to assume it will be Miami that will prevail, as the defending divisional champions return several of the key pieces from their 11-win season last year, and added the #7 recruiting class for support.
The Pick: Clemson over Miami in the ACC Championship
Big XII
The Favorite:
Oklahoma
The Challenger:
West Virginia
The Dark Horse:
Texas
Oklahoma, like Clemson and Alabama, have reached a point where they almost certainly deserve to be the de facto favorite in the Big 12. They’re the three-time defending champions of the conference, produced a Heisman winner last year, and reached the national playoff with a first-year head coach. That being said, though the Sooners will not hurt for talent in the post-Baker Mayfield era, the losses on the defensive side will hurt more.
As such, many think this is Dana Holgerson's and West Virginia's best chance to make their first big splash since joining the Big XII. More accurately, many are expecting this to be "the year of Will Grier," some preseason projections going so far as to peg him as the Heisman winner. I'm not too convinced; I've been burned by putting too much confidence in a promising Mountaineer side, only to watch them flame out in crucial games.
Texas, who earned my "Dark Horse" moniker last year, again proves to be an intriguing prospect. I'll admit, I was a year early on my prediction that Tom Herman would begin the Texas turnaround, but the way they finished the season last year and started recruiting for this year has to have the Longhorn faithful excited. I do think the Sooners will get them in the Red River Rivalry again this year, but, in an imperfect conference, the Longhorns will finish hot to get revenge in the conference championship.
The Pick: Texas over Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship
Big Ten
The Favorite:
Ohio State
The Challenger:
Wisconsin
The Dark Horse:
Penn State
The Big Ten yet again sees the Ohio State Buckeyes, defending conference champions, as the favorite to carry the banner, likely into the College Football Playoff. However, it could not have been a worse preseason for them, from transfers out of the program to the much more serious issue of the Zach Smith scandal which sees head coach Urban Meyer suspended for the first 3 games of the season. The season, in my opinion, is likely to go one of two ways for them. Either Ohio State will be able to block out all the noise and be inspired to bond together-- the Buckeyes are still a loaded team, and title contenders to boot. Or, the departing and absent coaches turn out to be a major distraction that throws the season out of amok-- there is precedent for this being the case for both Ohio State (the first season post-NCAA scandal and Jim Tressel firing) and Urban Meyer (Florida's first season after Meyer retired due to health issues, then decided to return at the last minute). It may be going out on a limb a little, but I'm going to predict the latter.
To be fair, one reason I'm predicting the latter is because it just makes the Big Ten slightly less convoluted. It's going to be an extremely top-heavy year, with OSU and Wisconsin in the preseason Top 5, Penn State and Michigan State right behind them, and Michigan possessing a coach and quarterback with the potential of making some noise as well. Wisconsin as national contender has its share of skeptics, likely because of the weak division they play in. Doubters are probably in the right to question the quality of the Badgers' division, but are wrong to sleep on this Wisconsin side. They've got their typical hard-nosed defense, one of the best running backs in the country, and the way quarterback Alex Hornibrook played in the Orange Bowl against Miami has to give them confidence as well. Though regular season games at Iowa and Michigan and hosting Penn State likely means they won't go unbeaten in the regular season (a la last year), I think smart money would be to see them finally take the next step and get revenge in the Big Ten Championship game.
The Pick: Wisconsin over Penn State in the Big Ten Championship
Pac-12
The Favorite:
Washington
The Challenger:
USC
The Dark Horse:
Stanford
After 8 consecutive years of the North Division dominating the Pac-12, the balance of power finally shifted back south last year, with USC deservedly winning the conference. However, it might be a short stay at the top for the South division. USC figures to have another good year, as they return much of their defensive pieces from lat year, and are the clear favorites in their division. Yet, given the departures of some big names, including quarterback Sam Darnold, they're more than likely to take a step back in 2018.
So, the attention turns back North, with Bryce Love's Stanford looking for a return to the glory days of 2011-14, wherein the Cardinal were a consistent threat to compete on the national stage. Love is reason alone to never count Stanford out, but the favorite here has to be new division rival Washington. The Huskies, two years removed from their surprise playoff run, still have QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin, and will be looking to revamp their already-stingy defense. One thing I've learned from my years of College Football fandom? Don't bet against Chris Peterson.
The Pick: Washington over USC in the Pac-12 Championship
SEC
The Favorite:
Alabama
The Challenger:
Georgia
The Dark Horse:
Auburn
Want to see how prescient I am? Read what I wrote in my preview of last season: "It wasn’t all that long ago that SEC used to absolutely own college football. But now, it’s been 1 title in the last 5 years, and it’s been almost a decade since a team not from Alabama was the premier team in the SEC... In the East? It’s honestly becoming less relevant than either the ACC Coastal or the Big Ten West. Georgia has a load of talent on both sides of the ball, so they get the pole position by default. Will they win the SEC? No, they will not. "
See? Nailed it.
Kidding, of course. Last season was a gag-inducingly banner year for the SEC. Georgia's sudden, shocking resurgence meant that for the first time since the days of Tebow, the conference was relevant in both divisions.The conference race took many twists and turns, exemplified by the Auburn Tigers, who after blowing a 4th-quarter, 20-point lead against LSU looked destined for an 8-win season. Yet, out of nowhere, Auburn finished red-hot, dismantling #1 Georgia and #1 Alabama in consecutive weeks. But, just as they looked to be the team to beat in the SEC, Georgia exacted revenge in the SEC Championship. Then, just as they seemed to be "the" SEC team, the committee also included SEC #3 Alabama in the playoff, and the national championship ended up being an all-SEC affair. The game itself was, as you remember, a classic which ended with big bad Bama snatching the title from plucky Georgia on the last play of the game.
So, who are the teams to beat in 2018? Surprise! Alabama, Georgia, Auburn. The latter Tigers are about as much of a "dark horse" as Penn State is in the Big Ten, which is to say, not at all. But, even with a more experienced Jarrett Stidham at QB, I just can't predict Alabama losing to them for two straight years. And, no matter how impressive a job Kirby Smart is doing at Georgia (and he will win a National Championship there), I just can't predict Alabama not winning the SEC for two stright years. Lordy, I hope they prove me wrong.
The Pick: Alabama over Georgia in the SEC Championship
Group of Five
The Favorite:
Central Florida
The Challenger:
Boise State
The Dark Horse:
Florida Atlantic
UCF really should be everyone's preseason pick of the Group of Five. They're the defending national champions, for Pete's sake! And, though they might lose Shaquem Griffin and some other defensive stalwarts, they return a whole lot of their high-flying offense, including QB McKenzie Milton.
Boise State, though, the perennial favorite of the little guys, might be poised to once again prove their mettle on the big stage. It doesn't hurt that they fought their way to the Mountain West Conference title last year. Then again, people have been expecting a total resurgence for years now, and yet the Broncos have been unable to become as consistently top-tier as they were under Chris Peterson (never bet against Chris Peterson).
No, I think UCF's stiffest "Group of Five" competition will come from an in-state opponent, one that actually appears on their 2018 schedule. Lane Kiffin, laugh all you want, wasted no time in turning around Florida Atlantic. The Owls finished 11-3, destroying their opponents in the Conference USA championship and bowl game, and announcing themselves as a formidable mid-major. With the decent amount of talent Kiffin has been able to stock in Boca Raton, the name recognition their coach provides, and the ability to score at least one signature victory against either Oklahoma or UCF, I think the FAU might have a good shot at being the Conference USA's first ever team in a BCS bowl.
Preseason NY6 Predictions
ORANGE BOWL SEMIFINAL
(2) Clemson vs. (3) Wisconsin
COTTON BOWL SEMIFINAL
(1) Alabama vs. (4) Washington
Peach Bowl
Auburn vs. Florida Atlantic
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Michigan State
Rose Bowl
Penn State vs. USC
Sugar Bowl
Georgia vs. Texas