Premier League Predictions, Weeks 29 and 34
Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! This midweek saw the conclusion of the quarterfinal stage in European competition, and if you're reading this piece with vested interest, you're probably pretty unhappy with how it went, unless you're an Aston Villa fan.
Indeed, most clubs previously based in Europe will welcome a return to league play instead. And what time to return to it: this weekend is "Week 34" in the Premier League, yes, but we also get a makeup round from FA Cup weekend back over Week 29, so this prediction piece will encompass upcoming weekend and midweek matches.
If you don't remember last time out, in a non-supersized Premier League weekend, I turned in a non-supersized performance. I hit on two obvious results: Manchester City winning and Sheffield United losing. Otherwise, it was rough going. Newcastle did in fact take points off of Tottenham, but it wasn't 1, it was all 3, as they shellacked them in a 5-goal blowout. Crystal Palace did in fact take points off of Liverpool, but it wasn't 1, it was all 3, as they stunned them in front of an Anfield crowd. And Arsenal? Well, less said about that "3-0 win" prediction, the better. All in all, my 2/5 week dinks my season total back down to 83/125.
But now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time sulking. Here are your 5 for Weeks 33 and 29 redux!
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Arsenal
Generally when I choose the matches for this piece, I try to divy between teams featured at the top, near the Top 4, and in relegation battles. But between a wild title race coming down to the wire, 4th-place Aston Villa likely getting an easy win at home and 5th-place Tottenham not playing this week, this piece is going to be all about the three horses vying for glory. The first of those horses to play this weekend (and the only to play tomorrow) is 2nd-place Arsenal, whose loss to the aforementioned Villa kicked off a brutal 4-day stretch, where their season sweep by the Birmingham Boys was shortly followed-upon by more Champions League heartache at Bayern Munich's hands. They need to turn around the ship quickly to keep the pressure on league leaders Manchester City, but this is not an ideal recovery match. It's tough to suddenly regain form in a road game against a tricky opponent in good form, and I expect Wolves will in fact give Arteta's men a tough match. But, perhaps after a slow or difficult start, I expect Arsenal to rally together and pull it out late.
The Pick: Arsenal, 3-1
Fulham vs. Liverpool
Arsenal isn’t the only team that desperately needs a bounceback; Liverpool, who is tied with the Gunners on points but slightly behind on goal differential, have tailspun over the last month, crashing out of the FA Cup to Manchester United, dropping precious Premier League points to that same team and then Palace, and on Thursday, officially exiting the Europa League at the quarterfinal stage as well. And like Arsenal, they’ll need to bounce back in a tough road environment, and against a side that has played them close in every single matchup this season. Fulham’s Craven Cottage has been a site for frustrating draws in recent Liverpool seasons, but honestly Liverpool faithful might take a draw with the form their side is in. Look, the Reds are clearly the better team but something is broken with them at the moment, and until they actually show a return to their strong mentality and good form, I’m not gonna pick it to happen.
The Pick: Fulham, 2-1
Arsenal vs. Chelsea
Despite the massively disappointing couple years Chelsea have had, there's a sense now that they're starting to take the shape many expected them to have most of this season. After all, they're unbeaten in their last 12 matches, are fresh off a 6-0 dismantling of Everton, and tomorrow play Manchester City in an FA Cup semifinal. Their sharp uptick brings intrigue to this edition of the London Derby, whic has unique stakes in that a win doesn't really "help" either team, and a loss could only "hurt" one of the teams. As big as a win over Chelsea would feel, for cathartic and title race significance reasons, a draw or particularly a loss has the potential to essentially end Arsenal's hopes for a trophy (especially if they've already dropped points to Wolves by then). I feel like this midweek clash will only go one way or another; namely, either an extremely frustrating day for Arsenal, or a bombastic "Arsenal rediscovers their title-contending form" display in a comfortable win. I'll go with the optimistic take, since the Gunners have proven that optimism more right than wrong this season.
The Pick: Arsenal, 4-2
Everton vs. Liverpool
The second leg of the Merseyside Derby is next Wednesday night, and for the second time in the last three years, it's a late-season crosstown derby match that comes with title meaning for one team and relegation significance for the other. Fresh off a revised points deduction penalty from the FA, and a 6-goal humiliation, Everton sit just two points clear of the drop zone heading into this weekend. Meanwhile, across the park, even if Liverpool's title chances haven't ebbed away in Sunday's match with Fulham, anything other than a win for them could sink the trophy dream once and for all. Despite the gulf in quality between these two sides in the Jürgen Klopp era, Goodison Park has been a place of nightmares for Liverpool over the last decade; they have won there only twice in the last decade (one of the wins coming in their quadruple chase two seasons ago). Thus, even if the Reds spend Sunday rediscovering their form vs. Fulham, the safe bet for this downtrodden Liverpool fan is that this match has another infuriating 0-0 draw written all over it.
The Pick: Draw, 0-0
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Manchester City
Unlike most of the league, these two are not playing until next Thursday, as City spends the weekend at Wembley for the FA Cup semifinal. Regardless of whether they pull that out against Chelsea, the defending champions will be extremely hungry for a win to not only regain their place atop the table, but also wash the bad taste of last week's Champions League exit out of their mouth. Brighton will arguably be even hungrier for a win, though; it feels almost shocking to say, given how good the Gulls have been for most of the last few seasons, but it's been over a month since they have won a match, and they're officially equidistant from the relegation zone and the Top 4. They are far from the easiest team to try and take points from, and have a recent history of troubling top teams at crucial junctures. But even a perhaps weary version of Manchester City is still Manchester City, and there's no question Brighton aren't in a very good way at the moment. It wouldn't be CRAZY to project a City stumble on the south coast, but it would be pretty silly, I think.
The Pick: Man City, 3-1
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