The Couch Power 10, Week 9
"Sometimes, you're the bug, sometimes you're the windshield."
That's what comes to mind after the most recent college football weekend. One week after I gave a bulleted list breaking down everything went wrong for me as a North Carolina fan first, college football fan second, this past weekend may have it one-upped in grimness. There was a whopping two matchups between ranked teams in the entire day, they kicked off at the exact same time, and both games were essentially over by halftime, as was the Georgia-Florida rivalry game, which oh yeah, also kicked off at the same time. And then at the end of the night, my poor, sweet Tar Heels lost to another ACC cellar-dweller, officially killing off all of the hopes and dreams that had been born during the first half of the season.
Yay.
Fortunately, the day wasn't a total loss. Kansas stunned #4 Oklahoma for the first time in over 30 years, throwing a wrench in both the Big 12 and playoff race. Virginia nearly scored a 2nd straight major scalp by taking Miami to overtime in South Beach, while USC needed a late failed 2-point conversion to escape Cal. Oregon State and UNC weren't so lucky, falling to their unranked conference opponents.
Just a refresher: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
Tier 1A: Battle-tested and still unbeaten
This upper tier is who I think should have actually been atop the playoff rankings, the few that are unbeaten despite playing a pretty impressive schedule to date:
1. Florida State
The committee chair's reason for ranking Florida State next to last out of the Power 5 unbeatens was because "their schedule was front-loaded, so all their big wins came early in the season." First off- "early" as in...10 days ago? Secondly, here at The Couch, your big wins count no matter when you got them. In terms of the 'eye test' + 'resume' matrix, the 'Noles are still our #1 team.
2. Ohio State
Notoriously divisive Ohio State being ranked #1 in the playoff committee's first rankings unsurprisingly elicited howls of derision on the Internet. But in truth, I don't have that big a problem with it; what I had a problem with was the Buckeyes getting the "look who they've beaten!" bump, but not Florida State and Washington. Just like I said last time out, though- it may not be pretty, but they keep getting the job done with dominant defense. Last week, it was a big win over fellow unbeaten Penn State, this weekend, a tough road win in hostile Madison, Wisconsin.
3. Washington
Another week, another too-close-for-comfort win against a Pac-12 cellar-dwellar for Washington. Huskies fans will hope this is just the Pac-12 frontrunners playing down to their competition, because with a closing stretch of USC -> Utah -> Oregon State -> Washington State, the level is about to pick up significantly. Still, UW has one of the best wins of anyone (Oregon), and blowout wins over Boise State and Cal, plus a narrow road win over Arizona, are all aging nicely as those three seem to be turning into surprise bowl teams.
Tier 1B: Schedule unimpressive, team VERY impressive
These other power 5 unbeatens, through little fault of their own, have played an easy schedule to date, but damn if they don't look like a good team:
4. Michigan
Michigan got a week off to celebrate their Michigan State shellacking, and continue to find ways to dodge responsibility for the sign-stealing scandal. They have looked terrific against weak competition, but at least the latter part will change soon: road games against likely bowl teams Purdue and Maryland are interspersed with huge showdowns against Penn State and Ohio State.
5. Georgia
The Dawgs have looked uninspired for much of the season, but in the two games they've played that could be considered "big" (a then-Top 20 and unbeaten Kentucky team, and a solid, 1-loss rivalry game vs. Florida), they have been nothing short of dominant. This is noteworthy because looking "meh" against mediocre-to-bad opponents and then beating the brakes off their bigger opponents was exactly what Georgia did last season, to the tune of a 15-0 record and 2nd straight natty. Better to just assume the Dawgs will win until someone finally proves otherwise.
Tier 2A: How did this team lose?!
This tier is for a couple one-loss teams that the more we see, the more I am baffled how they actually lost a game:
6. Oregon
In the wake of dominant wins over a good Washington State team and an even better Utah team, the latter on the road, I have kind of marveled at how good Oregon have looked since their sole loss at Washington. Then I remember, they looked that good DURING the sole loss, too; Washington were just a matter of inches better that day. If they can avoid the sort of trip-ups that characterized the Mario Cristobal era in Eugene, the Ducks are very much primed to make a playoff push still.
7. Texas
There were a few weeks there where my confidence in the Longhorns startes to waver: they lost the Red River shootout to Oklahoma (albeit in a nailbiting thriller), then had a week off, then had the ugly, even lucky win over Houston last week. But in their dominant victory over a decent BYU team, even without starting QB Quinn Ewers, I was reminded of how good the Longhorns had looked through 5-6 weeks. They still have it all to play for, starting with a Big 12 Championship elimination game this weekend when Kansas State comes to town.
Tier 2B: Flawed 1-loss teams, but good ones
Where Oregon and Texas might be unlucky to have a loss, 7-1 feels exactly right for these last few teams: not perfect, but still good enough to be among the best:
8. Alabama
Alabama was off this week, but watched as their sole loss to Texas, and their wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee all continued to age nicely. LSU this weekend, though, will represent their sternest test since the Texas game, and the Tide will need to be much more like they were in the 2nd half of their last game and less like they've been in just about every other game.
9. Oklahoma
Were it just a matter of comparing Oklahoma and Texas, the Sooners would be higher unless or until they lost a second game, as I feel strongly about head-to-head being the #1 tiebreaker. But unfortunately, by losing to Kansas, OU was thrown into a pot with all the other 1-loss teams, and when you hold their resume up amongst the other 0-to-1 loss teams, you see a slew of bad opponents, some narrow wins over mediocre opponents, and one very good win over Texas that has now been offset by a bad loss to a Kansas team without their starting QB.
10. Ole Miss
As they have so often done in the Hugh Freeze and Lane Kiffin eras, Ole Miss is just kinda hangin' around. The big dawgs (Georgia and Alabama) are still commanding the SEC attention, but right behind them are the Rebels, who now are on a 4-game winning streak since their lone loss, a close one at Alabama, and also own wins over two ranked teams in LSU and Tulane.
Just missed: Missouri, James Madison, Air Force, Louisville, Notre Dame, whoever ultimately fires North Carolina's defensive staff
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