The Couch Power 10, Week 5
Happy October, college football fans! We’re into the spooky months here, which means we’re fully in the heart of football season. In fact, we’re in the best part of the season, because the teams are starting to take shape, but we’re not yet seeing the wheat separate from the chaff. Case in point? The madness has continued over the last couple weeks, with a total 13 ranked teams losing, and 7 of them to unranked teams.
I know it’s been approximately a fortnight since you heard from me last. I promise my unannounced bye week wasn’t a result of Tar Heel depression. Though North Carolina’s loss to Notre Dame did send me emotionally spiraling for a bit, I fully intended to publish my rankings last week, but #life got a little #busy. I saved this screenshot of how my Top 10 was going to look, both to prove my dedication but also to give an example of how much things can change at this point in the season:
Just a refresher, since it's been nary a year since you've heard from this ranking: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date:
1. Alabama
I’m aware of the irony in me dedicating so much time in my introduction to how chaos is reigning in college football and how much I will stick up for the teams that don’t get as much attention, and then I kick off my rankings with the two most dominant programs of the playoff area. I get it, I do. But, in the absence of a clear best team thus far, it’s hard to deny that preseason #1 Alabama looks like the cream of an imperfect crop. They had an almighty scare at Texas in Week 2, but other than that have blown out teams ranging from bad (Vandy) to decent (Utah St) to good (Arkansas), and the latter despite losing reigning Heisman winner Bryce Young to injury.
2. Clemson
I wasn’t sold on Clemson yet this season, to be honest. Though the offense looked vastly improved from last year, the defense suddenly was a liability. But outgunning a very good Wake team on the road, and following that up with a comfortable win over Top 10 NC State leaves little doubt: the Tigers are once again the toast of the ACC and a genuine playoff contender.
3. Kansas
Make no mistake: this high ranking is not simply to appease the Internet meme lords. Though college football Twitter is understandably delighted by Kansas being undefeated and earning the right to host College GameDay, the Jayhawks are every bit deserving of the hype thus far. Their 5-0 record may not include a win over any currently ranked teams, but it does include two conference wins, a victory over preseason-ranked Houston, and the only blemish on Duke’s record thus far.
4. TCU
That said, Kansas' next opponent will represent a major jump in quality, and that opponent is another unbeaten Big 12 team that jumped from off the radar into the forefront of everyone's minds. TCU, in Sonny Dykes' first year as head coach, made easy work of their first two opponents, then beat rivals and Dykes' previous team SMU before making an absolute of once-mighty Oklahoma last week. Here's a sentence you never thought you'd hear uttered in a million years: is it too early to declare the winner of this weekend's Kansas-TCU game the Big 12 frontrunner?
5. Ohio State
The serious disappointment of Notre Dame's and the Big Ten's quality thus far has taken a little bit of the spotlight off of Ohio State. But that hasn't changed two truths about the Buckeyes: they still have the highest ceiling of perhaps anyone in the country (and certainly anyone not named Alabama), and since the opening weekend grindfest against the Fighting Irish, they have absolutely blown the doors off of everyone they have played. Michigan State and Iowa are nowhere near as good as advertised, so Ohio State's first real test might not come until Halloween weekend, when they pay a visit to Happy Valley and Penn State.
6. Ole Miss
The FPI and ESPN's other resumé measurements don't think too high of Ole Miss' season to date, which is weird to me. Sure, the schedule strength is nothing to write home about, but a Top 10 win (thanks to last weekend's thriller over Kentucky) and an average margin of victory of 31 points in their other wins sounds pretty good to me. It remains to be seen whether this version of the Rebels is as explosive as the fighting Matt Corralls of last year, but so far, they pass the eye test.
7. Tennessee
If you paid attention to my screenshot, you'll notice that I would have had Tennessee as my #1 team last week. What caused their slip to #7 this week, then? Really not much more than a poorly-timed bye week. These rankings are more volatile than election polls in Wisconsin, and if you take even just a week off to bask in the glow of your 2nd ranked win of the season, it can hurt you. Well, especially when one of those ranked wins (Pittsburgh) spends the week suffering a horrible loss, and many other teams score big-time wins.
8. Georgia
But rest assured, Tennessee fans, you're not the only SEC East team I quickly soured on. Defending champions Georgia have been at or near the top of my rankings for most of this season. And that season-opening rout of Oregon so far is aging very well, to be fair. But after a weirdly off week against Kent State (yes, Kent State), the Bulldogs came extremely close-- as in, 'took their first lead of the game with 5 minutes remaining' close --to losing to the worst team in the SEC. Is this a case of the Dawgs just taking their eyes off the ball a bit, or is there a real problem going unaddressed in Athens? Time will surely tell.
9. Oklahoma State
With the shocking implosion of Oklahoma, who stands to gain the most in the Big 12? (Besides Kansas, of course.) The clear answer is their intra-state rivals, who painfully came within a literal inch of the Big 12 title and likely a College Football Playoff berth last season. The Cowboys had flown under the radar in the early weeks due to a few routine wins over mediocre-to-bad teams, but last week's comfortable road win at Top 15 Baylor, in a rematch of the 2021 Big XII Championship, served notice. The Gundy Gang are likely the teams to beat in the conference once again.
10. James Madison
You didn't think I would miss an opportunity to highlight an unbeaten Group of Five team, did you? Not I. Despite getting little to no coverage from media pundits, and little to no love in the polls, James Madison is quietly one of the better stories emerging in college football. The titans of the FCS have, thus far, passed the test of transitioning to college football's top division with flying colors. The Dukes don't just own a 4-0 record and a share of the lead in the Sun Belt East, they also own wins over the same Middle Tennessee State that, just last week, beat Miami at their own place, and the same Appalachian State that, just a couple weeks ago, beat then-#5 Texas A&M in College Station. In the suggested 12-team playoff format, JMU would have a significant shot at being a playoff team, and that's a future 99% of us can get behind.
Just missed: Michigan, Penn State, USC, Syracuse, UCLA, Drake Maye Heisman hype
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