The Couch Power 10, Week 10
Dread it, fear it, run from it...the end of college football is near. Thanksgiving is but a week away, which means we're in the penultimate week of the season. And boy, what a finish we're headed for.
I mentioned last week that while this season has been short on true chaos, with only a smattering of upsets every couple weeks, the flipside is that we have an enthralling logjam at the top of the rankings. That was very epitomized by this weekend in college football: it was not that there weren't interesting games, there were 4 different showdowns between ranked teams. But 3 of those 4 games, including the two biggest, were total blowouts, with Georgia and Missouri demolishing Ole Miss and Tennessee, respectively, and Michigan keeping Penn State at arm's length all night. Washington and Utah played a more entertaining one, but the Huskies were able to avoid the upset. Some minor chaos was to be found, sure: UCF destroyed #15 Oklahoma State, who had essentially one foot in the Big XII Championship after the Oklahoma game last week, Texas Tech upset #16 Kansas on their home field, #21 Arizona escaped Colorado on a game-winning field goal, and #24 Carolina beat rivals Duke in a wild, double overtime thriller. But these were all on the lower half of the rankings, meaning the race at the top still has anywhere between 8-10 viable playoff contenders.
Just a refresher: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. And as we're coming down the stretch, in the wake of more baffling decisions by the playoff committee, this rankings is honing its criteria: résumé is the starting point. Objectivity over subjectivity. Got it? Cool. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
1. Georgia
Every rule has exceptions, and right off the bat, we'll start with an exception to my "body of work trumps everything" rule with my new #1 team. Georgia's schedule strength has not been good overall this year, and in fact, ESPN has them only at #7 in strength of record. But when you're the two-time defending champion and you haven't lost a game in nearly two calendar years, I suppose it seems fair that you should start at the top. And given that Georgia is now 3-0 against ranked teams, and two of the three games (including this weekend's demolition of Ole Miss) weren't even close at all? I think it's a safe assumption they're once again the best until somebody proves otherwise.
2. Washington
But if there WERE a team that felt they had a right to be #1 over the Bulldogs, would it be Ohio State, the committee's long-time #1 team? Or Michigan, their rivals who got a big bump for winning their first ranked game all year? Or unbeaten ACC favorites Florida State? No, it would be the other unbeaten Power 5 team Washington, who the committee seems to have just forgotten exists, or maybe plays too late for the old fogeys in Grapevine, TX to stay up and watch. Washington won again this weekend, this time against Top 15 team and two-time reigning Pac-12 champs Utah (and despite making countless uncharacteristic errors down the stretch...it could have ultimately been a very comfortable win). That makes 4 wins against ranked opponents this season, a top-ranked 'strength of record' value, and a Heisman contender at QB to boot, which according to the committee all equals.... 5th place. Not so here at The Couch.
3. Florida State
Neither Miami or Florida are anywhere close to resembling the powerhouses they once were, but are still tough, and represent a stiff closing stretch of rivalry showdowns for the unbeaten Seminoles. Florida State passed that first test on Saturday, though, with a narrow victory over the Hurricanes, and booked their spot in the ACC Championship in the process. They don’t have quite the résumé that the Top 2 do, but a dominant win over LSU, and road wins over Clemson and Duke (prior to the Blue Devils’ QB getting re-injured) are more impressive than anything Ohio St and Michigan have on their CV.
4. Michigan
The Wolverines have looked the part of a great team all season, but now finally have a win over a good opponent to write home about. Their schedule certainly has not been tough, but I’m failing to see how how Ohio State’s, which is rated by ESPN as the best of the unbeaten teams is much harder. The Wolverines didn’t play Notre Dame at Notre Dame, it’s true, but did play (and destroy) a good UNLV team and decent Bowling Green team in non-conference play, and have remained undefeated in essentially the same Big Ten schedule with much more flair.
5. Ohio State
I’ll give the Buckeyes this, they finally looked dominant on Saturday, in a routine win against a bad Michigan State team. Plus, they’re 10-0, and ESPN somehow has that as the top-rated strength of record in the country. But again, not only have they looked fairly unconvincing throughout the season, their sole signature wins came, as ESPN noted, “on a 3 at the buzzer against 3-loss Notre Dame, and at home by 8 points against a Penn State team that struggles to throw the ball more than 5 yards down the field.” It’s not too hard to see them as the weakest of the Power 5 unbeatens.
6. Texas
Look...does Texas look like one of the 4 best teams in the country? No, and frankly, they haven't really since the first half of the season. But they keep finding ways to win games, most recently on the road at defending runners-up TCU. Their Top 10 schedule strength is undeniable, as is their early season win in Tuscaloosa, which remains one of the best wins of any team.
7. Alabama
After knocking down multiple ranked opponents back-to-back, Alabama made easier work of once-ranked Kentucky on the road, and clinched their spot in the SEC Championship. Is this Crimson Tide team one of the best few teams in the country? I don't think so. Does their resume justify them jumping any of the unbeaten teams or a Texas side that embarassed them on their home field? Not exactly, although it is the msot impressive body of work out of any team with a loss. But would anyone in the country want to play them, in the midst of their 8-game winning streak? I highly doubt it.
8. Oregon
I absolutely think Oregon is one of the best teams. Nothing about the Ducks' controlled win over Heisman winner Caleb Williams USC last weekend, nor their multiple impressive wins against ranked opponents, nor their narrow loss to a highly-ranked Washington team, suggests otherwise. But this is all about blind resumes, and in comparison to most other 1-loss sides, Oregon's schedule strength isn't nearly as impressive. And when you boil it down, their most impressive wins are over a then-hot-but-now-bad Colorado team, a previously-hot-but-now-mid USC team, and a good Utah team missing their QB1.
9. Louisville
With each passing week, Louisville’s embarrassing loss at ACC-worst Pittsburgh looks more and more confounding. Without it, the Cardinals are in the thick of the playoff race. After all, it’s their sole blemish on their record, early wins that at the time seemed like struggles against bad teams are aging nicely (GT and NC State), and dominant wins over Notre Dame, Duke, and Virginia Tech in a short span of time are awfully impressive. Instead, Jeff Brohm’s crew own a strength of record outside the Top 10, and need about 12 different things to go their way before they can dream of a playoff bid.
10. James Madison
Yes, Connecticut is a shell of even last year's 7-6 team, let alone the Big East champion teams of yesterdecade. Still, with the eyes of the nation (or at least Central-Southern Virginia) upon them, James Madison demolished the Huskies to preserve their perfect season. The 10-0 Dukes are so clearly the toast of the Sun Belt, and honestly, probably the toast of non-Power 5 schools. Hey NCAA- let them play in the postseason, cowards!!!
Just missed: Missouri, Ole Miss, Liberty, Tulane, Oklahoma, Future Hall of Famer Drake Maye
BONUS: Bowl Projection Time!
ROSE (Semifinal): # 2 Washington vs. #3 Florida State
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