The Couch Power 10, Week 10
We're coming down to the home stretch now in this 2023 regular season, and guess what? College football continues to deliver. Last Saturday was another one for the books, especially if that book is titled "Oh-So-Close! The Latest Chronicles of the Neat-Upset." Yes, it was another day filled with promises of apple carts being upset, only to lose but a couple apples overall. Still, what a wild ride it was, from the top of the morning, filled with Clemson exacting revenge on Notre Dame, Ohio State in the thick of it with Rutgers, Texas and Kansas State playing a wild game of "who wants to win this less," two SEC battles going to overtime the same time Texas and Kansas State did, and Ole Miss winning in the final seconds to avoid an upset by Texas A&M.
The madness slowed in volume from there, but still kept up throughout the day. In the afternoon slate, Group of Five darling Air Force lost their perfect season in a commanding upset win by Army, and fellow Group of Five darling Tulane nearly lost their New Year's Six credentials with an ugly 3-point win over winless East Carolina. This at the same time that the two big afternoon games, an 'SEC East Championship' between Georgia and Mizzou, and the last Bedlam game in the Big 12, both were worth the watch. Georgia again eked out the W, but the same could not be said for the Oklahoma Sooners, whose rivals Oklahoma State undoubtedly took immense glee in all-but-officially eliminating their rivals' hopes for one last Big 12 title and playoff berth before they bolt for the SEC. After the day that was, you'd think the two primetime showdowns couldn't deliver, right? Wrong. Alabama-LSU and Washington-USC both lived up to the billing, with both games a tied-up shootout going into the 4th quarter, before the favored team in each game managed to close it out.
My friend David has lamented a couple times to me that this season has been low on chaos. And perhaps it is true that this season has lacked the true season-long carousel ride at the top that we as fans joyously witnessed last year-- after all, we're just over three weeks away from the end of the season, and there are still more undefeated teams than there are playoff spots! But I think we have been #blessed with some wildly entertaining football just about every weekend. Long may it continue.
*We're getting reports of accusations that this week's upbeat tone is directly related to North Carolina finally getting back to winning ways. We at The Couch will neither confirm nor deny.*
Just a refresher: this is not a definitive ranking on how good the teams are, or on who I think will be/deserves to be in the playoff at the end of the year. Rather, it's more of a "What if preseason rankings and bigwig bias didn't predetermine the top teams" kind of thing, an ideal ranking of the country's teams based on what they've actually proved on the field to date. Don't be mad cuz I'm doin' me better than you doin' you:
Tier 1A: Battle-tested and still unbeaten
This upper tier is who I think should have actually been atop the playoff rankings, the few that are unbeaten despite playing a pretty impressive schedule to date:
1. Washington
The metrics say Washington's schedule hasn't been as difficult as a couple of their fellow unbeatens', but I don't know. That win over Oregon continues to look as impressive a win as anyone in the country has, the early road victory at Arizona is aging like a fine wine, and now the Huskies have gone into the Coliseum in primetime and edged out reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams and a desperate USC team. In a season that continues to be muddled at the top, UW takes back the #1 mantle for me, though they will need the balance between good offense and good defense to return if they're going to run the table from here on out.
2. Florida State
As they periodically have throughout this season, Florida State looked a little wobbly for much of the Pitt game. But, as they consistently have throughout this season, the Seminoles closed strong for a tough road win, and likely have only this weekend's rivalry clash vs. Miami standing between them and an unbeaten regular season.
3. Ohio State
I mentioned to a friend tonight, I'm of two minds when it comes to the playoff committee ranking Ohio State #1. On the one hand, they have the highest schedule strength of any unbeatens, and I'm all for résumé being the top criterion in rankings, rather than more subjective measures. On the other hand, they still just... don't look good. And I'm skeptical that a team with the same résumé but smaller name brand would be getting the same 'body of work' bump Ohio State is. Unlike how it would be in most seasons, last weekend's road win at Rutgers this year is nothing to scoff at, and the Buckeyes just keep finding ways to win games. But how sustainable is the trend of 'being outplayed until about the 10-minute mark of the 4th quarter'?
4. Georgia
Georgia's game vs. SEC East challengers Missouri lived up to the hype; it was a great game between two good teams. But it actually subverted my expectations. Georgia has been so mediocre apart from their few big games this season, so I thought we would either see Mizzou finally knocking the Bulldogs of their perch, or (more likely) the reigning champs would once again get up for the big game at home, and wallop the Tigers. Instead, UGA's tough, close win adds a nice feather to their cap-- not like they need to prove much anyhow, amidst their 26-game unbeaten streak --but also serves as a reminder that this does not appear to the near-unbeatable team of the last couple seasons.
Tier 1B: Not battle-tested OR Not unbeaten, but still probably elite
These other Power 5 schools have a loss, or haven't played anybody that's above the level of "not bad," so they come in slightly lower, but damn if they don't look good:
5. Michigan
Amidst the swirling Connor Stalions controversy, and criticism of their schedule strength, Michigan just keeps winning comfortably. The bad news is, the Wolverines really haven't been tested thus far, which can't have been the best preparation for Saturday's huge game vs. Penn State. The good news is, a road trip to the #10 team in the country provides them their first opportunity to prove to everyone that can be just as dominant against a good team.
6. Oregon
The more I watch Oregon, the more I have to remind myself they've actually lost a game. Nobody's going to mistake Cal for a high-caliber opponent, but the laser-focused Ducks absolutely obliterated them. They've faced 3 ranked opponents and 5-6 likely bowl teams thus far, and nevertheless are averaging over 47 points a game. Other than their last-second loss at Washington, the only time this season they've been remotely tested was in an early road trip to Texas Tech. Because of that 1 in the L column, they have no margin for error, but if they win out in a stretch that includes USC and Oregon State, wooooo is that Pac-12 Championship gonna be appointment television.
Tier 2: Not unbeatable, but still very good
7. Texas
For about 3 quarters, I was ready to talk in this week’s rankings about how people forgot about Texas, they’re still a playoff team, etc. etc. Then everything fell apart and they came extremely close, perilously close even, to losing at home to Kansas State. K-State is a good team, to be clear— the reigning Big 12 champs! —but the Longhorns need to salt away a 20-point 4th-quarter lead, regardless of the opponent. They’ve got some strong wins on their résumé, including the head-to-head over the team directly ranked behind them, but they’ve flirted with disaster a little too much in recent weeks for my liking.
8. Alabama
I’ve progressed from thinking Alabama wasn’t all that good and was just getting lucky, to thinking they still weren’t very good but figuring out how to close out games, to now accepting, in the wake of their 4th win over a ranked team, that perhaps they are in fact a good team. What do you know, maybe Nick Saban knows a thing or two? LSU, as several of Bama’s opponents before them have, stuck around for a while, but were outclassed down the stretch by the Tide, in QB Jalen Milroe’s best performance to date.
9. Ole Miss
Not impressed by Ole Miss after they very narrowly escaped a home loss to Texas A&M, their 3rd close call against an unranked SEC West team in 4 weeks? Yeah, same, don’t worry. But the Rebs keep avoiding disaster, and amidst the 13th-strongest schedule in the country, their sole blemish is a close road loss at Alabama. Besides, worry not: with the Lane Train paying Georgia a visit this Saturday, I suspect we'll discover very shortly whether Ole Miss is for real or not.
Tier "James Madison": James Madison
10. James Madison
Yeah, that's right! I'm putting undefeated Sun Belt leaders James Madison here! I don't care if they're "still transitioning from Division II" and "aren't eligible for the postseason as a result"! RANK THEM AND LET THEM PLAY, COWARDS.
Just missed: Louisville, Penn State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Omarion MF Hampton
BONUS: Bowl Projection Time!
ROSE (Semifinal): # 1 Washington vs. #4 Georgia
SUGAR (Semifinal): #2 Florida State vs. # 3 Ohio State
Comments