Premier League Predictions, Week 33
© Micah Veldkamp, 2021
Welcome back to our predictions, Premier League fans! Are you surprised to hear from me again so soon? You shouldn't be! As I mentioned in last Friday's preview piece, Week 33 will take place in the middle of this week, so there's no rest for the wicked, as we get rolling again tomorrow afternoon.
This past weekend, I came incredibly close to both a very bad week or a good week. Allow me to explain: I nailed my prediction that Newcastle would beat Tottenham fairly comfortably (albeit my definition of "comfortable" was apparently a few goals less than Newcastle's was), but the other three matches were decided on a knife's edge. I was way wrong in my guess that Arsenal would make easy work of Southampton, but I was a stoppage-time shot off the post away from at least getting my win prediction correct. Elsewhere in London, I also missed on my Aston Villa victory over Brentford prediction, but I was a... you guessed it, stoppage-time shot off the post away from getting that one right, too. Conversely, while my projection of Liverpool defeating Nottingham Forest proved correct, Forest had two late looks at an equalizer go off the crossbar. The knife cuts both ways, so it feels almost fitting that I went 2/4, bringing my season total to a increasingly unimpressive 56/109.
But, the games are less than 24 hours away from kicking back off, so no time for keeping an eye on the cut line. Here are your 4 for Week 33!
Aston Villa vs. Fulham
Aston Villa's winning streak finally came to an end over the weekend at Brentford, but a late goal from Douglas Luiz ensured their 9-match unbeaten streak remained intact, as did their hopes of spoiling the Top 4 party. Fulham, conversely, got back to winning ways in the last couple weekends after their unexpected 5-game slide seriously hampered their European dreams. That said, their mini winning streak has come against two sides facing a serious threat of relegation. A road match against Unai Emery's red-hot Aston Villa is a different beast altogether. I'm guessing Villa stays hot.
The Pick: Aston Villa, 3-1
Everton vs. Newcastle United
Just days after their demolition of Tottenham, the Toon Army will travel to their Northern peers Everton to continue their Top 4 bid. Quality of opponents aside, if I were a Newcastle fan I'd be much more worried about this matchup. It's the most dreaded scenario for oft-pessimistic fans like me: a road date, on a pretty quick turnaround after a huge match, against a relegation-threatened side desperate for points. And oh yeah, by the way, that desperate opponent is now managed by the champion of chippy Brexit Ball, Sean Dyche. Newcastle have largely shaken off the 'settling for draws' disease that plagued them from August to January, but this feels like a prime candidate for a frustrating scoreless draw.
The Pick: Draw, 0-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United
Technically speaking, Tottenham are still in contention for a Champions League spot next season. They sit, after all, in 5th place and just 6 points out of the Top 4. Absolutely nothing about them screams Top 4 team at the moment, though; Spurs have won just two of their last nine in all competitions, were just shellacked 6-1, and now have fired their interim manager a month after firing their full-time manager. Now, as they continue their brutal stretch (this fixture against Manchester United is sandwiched between road trips to Newcastle and Liverpool), it's hard to blame any Spurs fan for not exactly feeling bullish about the rest of their season. United fans, though, while on cloud nine a mere month or so ago, may not be feeling so hot themselves at the moment. Sure, this past weekend's FA Cup semifinal win was nice, but they were wholly outplayed in that match by Brighton and lucky to win in penalties, and plus, a spontaneous combustion at Sevilla in the Europa League and dip in Premier League form over the last several weeks has completely erased any hope of any other trophies this year. 4th place-- hell, even 3rd place -- is still very much in the balance for both sides, though, which is what makes this "Wheels falling off Derby" so enthralling. I don't know if it's the potential for yet another new manager bounce, or just the home crowd + an increasingly unreliable opponent, but something tells me Spurs turn it around to the tune of at least one point this week.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Manchester City vs. Arsenal
Unfortunately for American viewers, the second leg of the de facto 'Premier League Final' will be played on a Wednesday afternoon, just as the first leg was. Still, clear your afternoon meetings, because this is probably the match to watch this season.
Although normally a team's sputtering form coming into a huge match might lessen the excitement, in this case that has somewhat been the opposite; had current leaders Arsenal won their last few fixtures, a win in this one would essentially wrap up the title race, and even a loss for them would be far from a death knell. Instead, the Gunners have...well, it's hard to describe it as anything but capitulated; just two weeks ago, they were 8 points clear at the top of table and leading Liverpool 2-0 at halftime at Anfield. But then they were bossed around by the Reds in the 2nd half, settling for a draw. Where this generated perhaps mild disappointment for their fans, replicating that same "feat" less than a week later at West Ham caused serious concern, and completely falling apart at home to Southampton last Friday incited panic. As it stands, Manchester City-- having played two less matches to date than Arsenal --now will win the title if they win out, a fact that has not been true in many months. If there's something to cling to for Arsenal fans, some shred of hope, it could be found in the way their young squad finished that last match against Southampton, rallying for a furious comeback in the closing minutes to force draw, and even nearly earning a winner in the dying seconds. But, those positive vibes are likely offset by the fact that it has now been 65 calendar days since City dropped points at all, and 80 since they lost a Premier League match. I do expect a much better, more focused performance from Arsenal on Wednesday than we've seen ever since that 1st half at Anfield, but barring a lightning strike that fells Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland in one swoop, I just don't see any way the Gunners win this in the Etihad.
The Pick: Man City, 3-2
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