Premier League Predictions, Week 28
Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! We got European action in the midweek to tide us over this time, which is nice, because we're entering one hell of a weekend. I'm not just talking the Oscars, no, nor the Carolina-Duke ACC Championship. On top of all of that, we've got the biggest and best weekend yet in the Premier League season upon us.
Last time out, three last-minute goals had enormous, counter-balancing effects on my performance. First, Heung-min Son's late game-sealer helped me perfectly predict the Tottenham-Crystal Palace. A mere couple hours after this, Darwin Núñez's 99th-minute headed winner helped preserve my accurate Liverpool victory pick. But then a couple hours after that, with perfection within my grasp, Lucas Digne's winner for Aston Villa gave them the winner and snatched away another dead-on prediction, this one of 2-2. Given how bold it was to predict a Luton upset, and how close it was to happening, I'm almost tempted to give myself half-credit, but because I am a just and honest man, I won't do it. I will do it, however, for Arsenal's win over Sheffield; the only reason my outrageous 5-0 scoreline prediction wasn't 100% correct was because it was just one goal MORE absurd, at 6-0. I also came within one goal of nailing Manchester City's winning scoreline over rivals Manchester United. For an imperfect week, this may have actually been my best week. My stellar 5 points from 5 week brings me to 70.5/105, batting over two-thirds' success rate past the century mark.
Now, the matches are less than 12 hours from kicking back off, so let's not waste any more time finagling the numbers. Here are your 5 for Week 28!
Manchester United vs. Everton
The weekend kicks off with two famous Northwest England clubs whose fans have dealt with immense frustration as the two have combined for 9 total points out of their last 30. Manchester United enjoyed a brief spell of significantly better form and results, but with four consecutive losses in all competitions on the bounce, I think it's safe to say that spell is over, as the calls for Erik ten Hag's head continue to get a little louder. The good news is, despite what has been a wildly frustrating and inconsistent season, the Red Devils still are in 6th place, likely bound for European football next season. The same most definitely can not be said of Everton, who have spent all season mired in or around the relegation zone, and haven't won a Premier League match since before Christmas. Things might not be great at Manchester United, but they're not THAT bad. This will be a spirited match, but I expect the better team to win.
The Pick: Man United, 2-1
Arsenal vs. Brentford
It's come mostly against bottom-of-the-table teams, as evidenced by their latest opponent being literally at the bottom of the table, but it's still a bit stunning just how dominant Arsenal have been all of a sudden. Their 6-0 demolition of Sheffield United (on the road!) marked 7 wins out of 7 in the Premier League in 2024, and brought up their average scoreline in that stretch to 4-0. That's a team that has unlocked something; even as their title rivals keep winning, the Gunners are keeping pace and then some. Brentford, who have already faced Liverpool, Manchester City, West Ham and Chelsea in successive weeks can't seem to catch a break, and the Bees are desperate for a win to stave off relegation concerns. I think that hunger for points plus the fact that Thomas Frank's men are the trickiest and well-coached team Arsenal will have played in a minute means this will be the end to the 'absurd margin of victory' streak for the North Londoners. I do not, however, expect it will be the end of their winning streak.
The Pick: Arsenal, 4-2
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur
A mega, supersized, whatever adjective you want to use matchup awaits on Sunday morning, but earlier in the morning, we get one hell of an appetizer. Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur have been two of the most exciting teams to watch in the Premier League this season, and also are the two chief surprise successes: Tottenham because they're in Year 1 of a big rebuild with a new manager and lost their talismanic star in the offseason, and Aston Villa because...well, because it's Aston Villa. Yet, after than the remarkable title-contending triumvirate, the two sides have been better than the rest of the league all season, and though both have had their short stretches of obviously dipping form, it seems pretty clear that 4th place (and a Champions League berth) will go to one of the two of them. Winning this one would be a pretty huge step for either team towards that, but especially for Villa, who have managed to put a little distance between them and Spurs. In fact, stunning as it may sound, a win tomorrow would take the Lions closer to Manchester City and Arsenal on points than to 5th place Tottenham. Conversely, Ange Postecoglu and co. could move within 2 points of 4th place Villa with a game in hand, should they pull off the road win on Sunday morning. I've gone back and forth on this several times, and really don't see much space at all between the two. If there is to be a winner, I have to imagine it will be the home team, but I think Spurs will come in too singularly focused on not losing ground to Villa that I expect them to come away with at least one point.
The Pick: Draw, 2-2
Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
If you had to pick the polar opposite of Aston Villa-Tottenham, I would vote for this exact matchup. After all, what's the inverse of two clubs finding surprise success the right way, with good coaching, togetherness, and an attractive football? Two disgustingly wealthy clubs massively underachieving and stringing together lackluster performances despite having the resources to, essentially, sign most of the best players in the world. I can't imagine any of the coaches for, players on, or fans of either of these teams would have expected this to be a 12th-place v 8th-place matchup when circling this fixture on their calendar preseason, but here we are. It's hard to know how to predict a match where nothing but pride as at stake when the two teams playing have exhibited very little pride all year, but-- though I have been fooled by false starts on either side --I think, I think that I trust Chelsea a little more at this point. The Blues haven't lost in their last 4 Premier League matches, and have a draw at Manchester City and a dominant FA Cup win over Aston Villa from that time to write home about.
The Pick: Chelsea, 3-1
Liverpool vs. Manchester City
In this thrilling, thrilling Premier League race, in which 2 points separate the three best teams with eleven matches remaining, every single match for Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal could be seen as a "final" from here to the end. But I have to imagine the matches between the teams feel even more so. In that case, you will not want to miss Sunday's "final" in front of what is sure to be an incredibly raucous Anfield crowd. Neither side this season has been as strong as past iterations of Liverpool and Man City-- such as their two epic tussles in 2018-19 when they would go on to record the 2nd and 3rd-best Premier League seasons in history (the same season), or the two thrilling 2-2 draws two seasons ago when the two were two of the best clubs in the world and the title was once again decided on the final day by one point. But City are as loaded and talented as ever, and after an inconsistent and injury-riddled first half of the season are rounding into their annual unstoppable late-season form. And Liverpool, despite their mass turnover in the offseason, despite the announcement that their beloved manager is leaving at the end of the season, despite an injury list that looks like wartime casualties, just keep finding ways to win games. The Reds sit atop the table because Jürgen Klopp's 'mentality monsters' are back, simple as that. This is yet another case of unstoppable force meets immovable object, as has so often been the case when these two get together. City has the motivation edge, playing from a point behind Liverpool and looking to 'avenge' their frustrating draw at their home stadium back in November. The champion's depth is extremely daunting anyway, let alone against an opponent that has been decimated by injuries. But Liverpool is getting healthier, with Darwin Núñez (who has 3 goals from his last 2 appearances), Mohamed Salah, Wataru Endō and Dominik Szoboszlai all returning from injury in the least week. And nobody in the league is harder to put away, and that's even without accounting for what will likely be the best home-field advantage on Sunday that any team has enjoyed this season. I've tossed it over and over in my mind, and I have a much easier time seeing these two great sides split the honors yet again than I do one of them winning.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
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