Premier League Predictions, Week 23

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! After a midweek that saw the return of the Champions League and the Europa League, and one single, very high-stakes Premier League match, we're back to domestic action.

My spotty post-World Cup prediction form has unfortunately continued through this past week. Once again, I correctly predicted victories for the two Manchester sides, but completely whiffed on Brentford's and Aston Villa's surprise draws with Arsenal and Newcastle, as well as Liverpool's win over Everton. That drops my season total to 32.5/55, exactly on .500. I'm slumping further and further into mediocrity.

But hey, the games are less than 12 hours away from resuming, so no time for moping. Here are your 5 for Week 23!

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal

For the first time in months, I can't refer to Arsenal as league leaders any more. Yes, while you were away (if you're like me), you may have missed the biggest league match of the season being played on a random February afternoon, for reasons beyond comprehension, in which former leaders Arsenal lost to now-current league leaders Manchester City 3-1, even at the friendly confines of Emirates Stadium. This now marks 1 point out of their last 9 for the Gunners, and it's officially crisis mode. An aberration on the road to Everton with a brand new manager? Not ideal, but it happens. Failing to win your next two matches in must-win scenarios, at home? Inexcusable, even when the teams in question are a good Brentford team and a great Man City side. All is far from lost for Arsenal fans, however; there's plenty of time left in the season, they're actually still level on points, and at least for the immediate future, Aston Villa seems like the ideal opponent against which to start the 'form recovery' mission.

The Pick: Arsenal, 2-0

Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Despite all the new faces, surprising losses, and twists and turns this season for Manchester City, they find themselves right back where they've been for most of the last 6 seasons: in first place. City's win in London to reclaim the league lead was a masterclass in rising to the occasion and asserting your style of play. Now, the trick for Pep Guardiola's men is to avoid the classic trap game scenario: they're coming off a massive win, and have a quick turnaround on the road against a team who has quietly started to play much better; Forest has risen from the relegation zone thanks to 11 points out of 18 in the calendar year. Manchester City have proven to be a team susceptible to mental lapses the last few seasons, which makes this a tempting upset pick, but I think the talent gap is still too massive here, even with Nottingham's 73 transfers made this season.

The Pick: Man City, 4-2

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Fulham

There are multiple surprise success stories in this year's Premier League, but perhaps none more than these two. Brighton were a constant thorn in the side of the league's elite under Graham Potter, but have remained that way even after losing Potter to Chelsea, and multiple key players to other clubs. So much so, in fact, that the Gulls sit in 6th place with two matches in hand over Tottenham; the Top 4 is very much in touching distance. Right behind them, though, are Fulham. Last year's winners of the Championship have fared remarkably better in the Premier League than their last short-lived stints in 2018-19 and 2020-21, consistently banging in goals and proving up for the fight against even the biggest and baddest of opponents. I do think Brighton is the slightly more balanced team, and gets the Cottagers at home, but I just don't see enough separation between the two to feel confident in picking a winner, so I'm going to

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Newcastle United vs. Liverpool

A high-stakes showdown between Northern rivals pits together two teams at the root of my more noteworthy misses from my last predictions outing. I spoke last time about how much Newcastle needed to stop drawing matches if they are going to stay in the Top 4, let alone in the title race. Instead, they drew once again, to heavy underdogs Aston Villa; they now have officially split points more often than earned all 3 this season, but fortunately, those hopes remain alive because their sole loss on the season is still that early match at Liverpool. The same Liverpool team, notably, that finally won a match they needed to win and snapped their 3-match losing slump, which I did not anticipate happening. Nothing about the way this season has gone should give Reds fans much optimism that they can extend their winning streak, but at the same time, they are the only club (Arsenal and Manchester City included) to actually defeat the Magpies this season, and with the return of several players from injury, may look to the Everton win as a turning point in their own haphazard season. I don't know which "gotcha!" trap to attempt to evade this time: the "Newcastle will finally stop drawing matches they really ought to win" one, or the "Liverpool has definitely turned it around" one. But, considering both the fact that getting it wrong would hurt me far less, but more significantly that Newcastle are playing for revenge and in front of a home crowd, I have to opt for the latter.

The Pick: Newcastle, 2-1

Manchester United vs. Leicester City

Stop me if you've heard this one before: a Manchester side whose title hopes have been rejuvenated will hope to avoid a letdown against a seemingly overmatched opponent that has a sneaky amount of talent and has quietly been putting together better results. Leicester might genuinely be the more likely upset candidate between themselves and Nottingham; disastrous start to this season notwithstanding, the Foxes are a proven quantity, are getting healthy, and are coming in on a 4-match unbeaten streak. Still, it feels like Manchester United will be playing with a renewed focus with Top 4 seemingly in hand and only a 5-point margin between them and the co-leaders.

The Pick: Man United, 3-1