Premier League Predictions, Week 18

Welcome back to the weekly predictions, Premier League fans! If it feels like it's been forever since you heard from me, that's because, relative to the frenetic Premier League schedule, it has been. After a December packed to the brim with fixtures, the new year brought a respite from league action, a mini-break and FA Cup ties taking their place. Some clubs have already started the matches back up, with some 'COVID reschedule' games being played in the last three days, but tomorrow marks the start of Gameweek 18 in earnest.

If you recall, I kicked off 2021 with a bold resolution to improve on my perfectly horrid start to the '20-'21 prediction season. If you were paying attention, you might also realize that this bold proclamation has started off a little better, at least. I got the Man United-Aston Villa prediction dead on, score and all, accurately forecasted Tottenham blowing out Leeds, and correctly predicted Southampton taking points off Liverpool (though they took all 3 as opposed to my predicted 1). However, I also did not see West Ham upsetting Everton, and my bold claim of Chelsea taking points off Manchester City went south, so on the whole I batted . 500-- 2.5/5 on the week. Believe it or not, that rate actually brings my season total up, to a 34.5/74, which is marginally closer to 50%!

But, the matches are already underway, so let's not waste any more time building back better. Here are your 6 for Week 18!

Leicester City vs. Southampton

Many (myself included) mocked Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhüttl for his dramatic, emotional reaction to Southampton's victory over Liverpool, but in retrospect, I kinda get it. Beyond the symbolic significance of beating the defending champions, it marked a return to form for a team that had overachieved for so long this season, only to go 4 consecutive matches without a win. Now the Saints come into yet another difficult matchup with a burst of momentum and positive energy, and they'll need that to knock off a Top 4 side that beat them 9-0 in their first matchup last season. Leicester, meanwhile, have continued their Jekyll and Hyde routine that has been their calling card the last 2 seasons, following their home defeat to Everton with an upset win at Tottenham, then a pleasantly surprising draw vs. Manchester United with a disappointing draw with Crystal Palace. Because their last performance was a win, and because Southampton and Danny Ings are the kind of side that can happily take advantage of a down week, I'm gonna go with the upset here: Leicester inexplicably lose again.

The Pick: Southampton, 2-1

Liverpool vs. Manchester United

The Premier League's most famous and historical rivalry takes on special significance every year, but thanks to United's quiet yet steady rise to the top of the league table, this edition of the North West Derby is the most title-race-significant in perhaps over a decade. The Red Devils have rarely looked the part of the champion this season, but they have done what most champions do: found ways to win matches. In a year as unpredictable, unprecedented and chaotic as this one, that is a top quality to have. The defending champions, meanwhile, are mere points off the lead yet again, but have undergone absolutely confounding shifts in form. Their now-famous and seemingly ever-growing list of injury absences is a good reason to recognize this Liverpool side is not going to be the same as the one we saw from 2018-2020. The confusing part, though, is that we still see glimpses of 'Elite Liverpool'; they just can't ever seem to stick around. A 3-0 rout of then-leaders Leicester was followed by a Champions League upset by Atalanta and a draw with Brighton. A 4-0 romp over Wolves, with fans back in Anfield, seemed to indicate good days ahead for the Reds, but they quickly dropped points to minnows in both the Champions League and the Premier League. Then, in the most jarring turn yet, Liverpool scored a massive victory over Tottenham and a 7-0 demolition of Crystal Palace, which seemed to place one Red hand back on the trophy.... only for them to go three straight matches without a win, against a murderer's row of West Brom, Newcastle, and Southampton, no less. We've become accustomed to greatness under Jürgen Klopp, so it seems simply unfathomable that Liverpool would go yet another match without a win, especially in a massive match in Anfield. But the last year has been nothing if not unfathomable, and this Manchester United team seems to just, quite simply, find a way to get crucial goals in a manner that Liverpool have completely lost the ability to.

The Pick: Manchester United, 2-0

Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace

Amidst the revolving door of Everton-Liverpool-Tottehnam-Manchester United taking turns at top of the league, everyone seems to have somehow missed mega club Manchester City perfectly positioning themselves to assert control. The Citizens got off to their 2nd straight sloppy season start, to be sure, but their 8-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League has seen them jump to within 4 points of the lead, with one match in hand. The good news doesn't stop there for Man City; they've had a relatively injury-free season, and even in a year as unpredictable as this, their next stretch of fixtures is far from daunting. First on the chopping block: Crystal Palace, who has been outscored 14-5 over the past month. I'm gonna guess that deficit will grow even more after Sunday.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-0

Leicester City vs. Chelsea

Leicester City has a pretty significant next several days against two Top 10 teams, which will be a good barometer of their staying power in the Top 4. The surprise here is that Southampton is the higher-ranked opponent that Leicester will face. It seems like just yesterday that Chelsea were knocking on the door of the top of the table and being pegged "favorites" by Klopp. But a sudden, inexplicable turn of form has seen them win just 1 of their last 6 matches which can be deadly in a season as tight as this one. The Blues are desperate for a win, and the good news is I think they'll get one tomorrow at Fulham. The bad news is, if my Southampton upset prediction comes true, Leicester will be the side coming into this fixture desperate for a win, and the nature of their form means that, logically, the Foxes will win this one.

The Pick: Leicester, 2-1

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa

It remains to be seen whether this match will even be played. Aston Villa, amidst a significant COVID outbreak at the club has already had this weekend's fixture with Everton postponed and has petitioned the Premier League to move this one as well. Provided it does move forward, and provided Villa actually has most of their senior players available, it could represent the most difficult matchup for Manchester City until their return leg against Liverpool 3 weeks from today. They've punched above their weight all season long, spending a not-insignificant amount of time in the league's Top 4, and taking 10 points from a possible 15 against the league's "Big Six," their sole loss a competitive 2-1 one at Manchester United. If I were more confident that they would have their full squad at their disposal, and perhaps if this were being played at dreary Villa Park, I would be inclined to predict an upset in this match. As it is, though, the safe bet is that the City train keeps rolling.

The Pick: Manchester City, 3-1

Fulham vs. Manchester United

Manchester United's attitude coming into this match on Wednesday could be contingent upon how this weekend's showdown with Liverpool plays out. United will of course be looking for a win either way, never doubt that; but if they fail to get one against Liverpool, they'll be all the more hungry in this one, as I doubt they have any intention of letting their Premier League lead slip too far from their grasp. But if they come into this matchup riding high from a massive, title-race-defining win at Liverpool, Fulham are more than capable of sneaking a surprise on the Red Devils. Strange as that may sound to say of the season-long cellar-dwellers, Fulham have taken points off of Leicester, Liverpool and Tottenham this season, the latter two in their most recent stretch of 5 consecutive draws. (5 draws! In a row!) In a vacuum, I absolutely expect United to take all 3 points here. But if I'm going off my prior prediction that they get the elusive victory at Anfield this weekend, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Fulham get yet another draw at home against a favored club.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1