Premier League Predictions, Week 15/16

Welcome back to your Premier League predictions, fans, and Happy Holidays! Even though #holidayszn is in full swing, the games never stop. Boxing Day has historically been a big day for Premier League football, and amidst all the other changes we underwent in 2020, that has stayed the case this year, at least. And in keeping with the theme of intense fixture congestion, there is one more slate of matches before we arrive at the new year.

As such, for the second week running, this prediction piece will encompass matches from two separate "Gamedays," some played over this weekend, and some being played Monday through Wednesday. There's a lot to get through, and a lot of festivities to celebrate, so I won't waste too much time reflecting on last week, other than to say, yowza. After my brief brush with success, I appear to be committed to beginning a new streak of futility. I nailed my Liverpool-Tottenham prediction to the T, and did have the right Chelsea-Wolves scoreline, even if I predicted the wrong winner. Other than that, it was pretty bleak as I whiffed on all other predictions. That drops my season total even lower, to 29.5/63, which, true to the year, is pretty miserable.

But, the matches are less than 48 hours away, so let's not waste any more time with bah, humbugging. Here are your 7 (!) for Weeks 14 and 15!

Leicester City vs. Manchester United

The very next Premier League match being played is arguably the biggest one of the next two game weeks. Manchester United has suddenly played themselves into within a mere two points of the Premier League lead, and has done so remarkably stealthily, considering the club’s stature. However, any stealth is now gone, as their opponents and the nation at large will surely be aware of 7-match unbeaten run and 3rd place status. Leicester themselves have their own standing to consider, though. Despite a recent loss to Everton, the Foxes’ ensuing upset of Tottenham, coupled with other upsets around the league of top teams, sees them back in 2nd place heading into this weekend. It’s a high-stakes matchup between two teams that have been consistently inconsistent this year. But, though Leicester have United at home, it feels as if they are the more game-by-game side…can they really string consecutive wins over Tottenham and Manchester United? I’m skeptical, especially because the Red Devils seem to have this team’s number.

The Pick: Manchester United, 3-1

Arsenal vs. Chelsea

The oft-anticipated London Derby between these two historic clubs takes on a new tenor this season thanks to two wildly different forms. Chelsea started somewhat slow after their wild summer spending spree, but since October, had been flirting with the top of the league; yet, seemingly just about every time they reach the pinnacle, they drop points, as evidenced by last week’s surprise loss to Wolves. Arsenal, meanwhile, just keeps going from bad to worse. Their point total and goal total (of 14 and 12, respectively) to date are the club’s worst since the 1970s. They also seem to be conducting an intrasquad contest for who can score the most own goals and who can collect the most red cards. I’ve been wrong on Arsenal many times this season, including underestimating them just last week against Southampton. But it sure doesn’t look like the right time to predict a positive result for the Gunners.

The Pick: Chelsea, 2-0

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Tottenham Hotspur

These two teams’ fortunes were very different just last week. Tottenham sat atop the table, while Wolverhampton was staring two losses and potentially slipping deeper into the bottom half on the league. Then, Tottenham suffered back-to-back losses at Liverpool and against Leicester City, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say reaping 0 points from the week was unexpected. Wolves, meanwhile, knocked off league runners-up Chelsea thanks to a 95th-minute winner from Pedro Neto. Given that Wolves quickly undid that fine work by dropping an ugly match to Burnley, and Spurs now suddenly find themselves in 6th place, and six points behind leaders Liverpool, both will be eager to get back in the W column. As we’ve seen time and time again the last three years, Wolves and Nuno Espirito Santo are more than capable of beating teams they would appear to be overmatched by. Yet, I have to think Tottenham under the leadership of Santo’s Portuguese compatriot Jose Mourinho, are set up perfectly to exploit their opponents’ open play with their counterattack-heavy style.

The Pick: Tottenham, 3-1

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Chelsea’s loss to Wolves last week wasn’t just a surprise loss for the Blues right at a time when they were striving to take the Premier League lead. It came at a particularly daunting time, as Chelsea was about to enter a tough three-match stretch against Top 10 sides West Ham and Aston Villa, sandwiched around underachieving-but-talented rivals Arsenal. Fortunately, they passed their first test with flying colors, dispatching of West Ham 3-0, and as you’ve read in this piece already, I expect they won’t struggle all to much against Arsenal either. That said, even before Wolves exploited Chelsea’s weaknesses in that 2-1 win, I would have been skeptical of the latter’s ability to get 9 points of 9 in these matches. Aston Villa’s form has been considerably more unpredictable the last couple months, after winning their first five matches, but they’ve shown a consistent ability to get goals. Besides, they have kept a clean sheet throughout their current 3-match unbeaten streak, signs of shoring things up at the back. This all leads me to believe they’ll be able to take at least one point off of Chelsea, and I would not be surprised if they get all three.

The Pick: Draw, 1-1

Everton vs. Manchester City

Everton has to be thankful that they have a trip to last-place Sheffield United this weekend. Assuming proceedings go as easily for the Toffees as would be expected, that will be their only “respite” from a stretch that has included and will include Chelsea, at Leicester City, Arsenal, and Manchester City, with a League Cup visit from Manchester United for good measure. The good news for Evertonians— and bad news for Manchester City —is that they have aced the league matches so far, stunning Chelsea before upsetting Leicester 2-0 on the road and grinding out a tough win over Arsenal, all while conceding only 1 goal. City, meanwhile, are of course capable of beating anybody on their day, but don’t have the most encouraging form of late. They pulled out a hugely important win at Southampton last week, but did so unconvincingly, and on the heels of ugly draws against their Manchester rivals and cellar-dwellers West Brom. It seems unfathomable to me that City, in real need of 3 points, would flat-out lose this one, but Everton has shown they can go toe-to-toe with the best of them and seem to have recovered that early-season form that saw them briefly atop the league. I predict the spoils will be shared at Goodison Park.

The Pick: Draw, 2-2

Manchester United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers

The next several days will be a massive stretch for both these sides, as their weekend matches were already highlighted above. And truthfully, the outcome of this match might depend greatly on both teams’ prior matches, as motivation levels could be affected. But projecting this far in advance means we don’t know how United’s matchup against Leicester nor Wolves’ match against Tottenham will play out, and thus I have to go based off my own predictions for how they will. If United win and Wolves lose, then I like Wolverhampton in this match; Wolves are too good to drop 3 points in three consecutive matches, regardless of the quality of their opponents, and I have to imagine most of ManU’s attention in the coming days will be concerted on their massive showdown with Leicester on Saturday.

The Pick: Wolverhampton, 2-1

Newcastle United vs. Liverpool

I won’t bury the lede here: I think Newcastle is going to take points off of Liverpool. I assure you this is not some attempt by this Liverpool fan to engineer ‘reverse mojo’… I learned my lesson last week when my prediction of Crystal Palace taking points was met with a 7-0 Liverpool romp. I just still am having trouble thinking Liverpool have officially rounded into the ‘consistent winner’ form of yesteryear, with the ugly draw at Fulham still fresh on the mind. And though I anticipate them winning the match against West Brom this weekend, I would not be surprised in the least if the Fighting Sam Allardyces wear them out and/or injure them enough to hamper their quality in a road match against a club that always seems to play them tough at St. James’ Park.