Premier League Predictions, Week 13/14
© Micah Veldkamp, 2019
Welcome back to your Premier League predictions! I know, you just heard from me a mere three days ago. Why am I back? Well, we are officially into crazy season as it pertains to the Premier League. An already-crammed year of fixtures meets what, even in ordinary years, is the most intense month of matchdays. It's like as soon as one round of Champions and Europa League play gets done, the boffins at the HQ in England go "Right, time to fill up every single day of December with matches then, innit?"
So, for the first time this 2020-21 season, this prediction piece will encompass matches from two separate "Gamedays," some played over tomorrow through Thursday, and some being played this weekend. There's a lot to get through, so I won't waste too much time reflecting on last week, other than to say, yikes. My brief moment of joy was, well, brief. After a weekend that saw Liverpool cruise and me snap my prediction slump, I got jolted back to reality last week with Liverpool dropping points unexpectedly, losing more players to injury in the process, and me going for a whopping 1 for 5 on my predictions, solely correctly forecasting a draw in the Manchester Derby. That drops my season total back down to 27.5/55, which feels more in line with the year 2020.
But, the matches are less than 24 hours away, so let's not waste any more time with bah, humbugging. Here are your 8 (!) for Weeks 13 and 14!
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Chelsea
Both teams tomorrow will be coming off a match in which they were upset 1-0, thanks to a penalty kick. Both teams will also be hungry for a win after that disappointing result. For Wolves, they'll see this as an opportunity to jump back into contention for European competition, and for Chelsea, a chance to take advantage of the muddle at the top of the table. This is not an ideal match for Chelsea to attempt a rebound; Wolves are always tough and scrappy, and now they will be buoyed by a smattering raucous fans eager for a win. That said, I'm a believer in Chelsea new and improved, since the signings of Chilwell and Mendy in particular.
The Pick: Chelsea, 2-1
Arsenal vs. Southampton
I'm running out of ideas on what on earth is happening to Arsenal - each time you think the Gunners have reached a new low, they "top" themselves. Stilll, losing at home to Burnley thanks to an own goal from your out-of-form star and a red card from your captain has to be rock bottom, right? Conversely, Southampton keeps outperforming expectations, including my own; my predictions of their demise for some time now have been proven wrong repeatedly. The Saints have only 1 loss from their last 5 matches, and are still 4th in the league, and what's more, they have chronic goal-belter Danny Ings back from injury. This feels like one of those times where when I go with the obvious trendy pick, Arsenal chooses now to wake up and right the ship; but if I'm gonna be wrong, I want it to be because I believed in Southampton, not because I believed in Arsenal.
The Pick: Southampton, 1-0
Leicester City vs. Everton
If this match were played two months ago, it could have theoretically been a matchup of #1 and #2 in the Premier League, but both fell off to varying degrees from their fast start. As it is, it still should be an exciting match between #3 and #7 in the Premier League. It's also a showdown between two clubs I underestimated last week. Everton were able to overcome their poor run of form to upset Chelsea and Leicester very much did not get upset by Brighton; quite the opposite, in fact, as the Foxes ran riot en route to a 3-0 win. This one is going to be fun for a number of reasons, not the least of which that It's strength on strength; we have two sides with good managers, that play positive attacking football, and possess talented-but-inconsistent back lines. I go back and forth on how this one will play out, mainly because it feels like any day now Leicester will randomly collapse again. But they are legitimately capable of being in the upper echelon this season, and I don't want to make the mistake of not giving them enough credit two weeks in a row.
The Pick: Leicester, 3-1
Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur
It's a shame this has been relegated to a random Wednesday afternoon (at least in the States) because this is an annual must-watch. Even though Liverpool has had Tottenham's number in recent years, the only matches in the Klopp era that have been decided by more than 1 goal were Tottenham's sole win in this time period, a blowout win in Fall 2017, and the competitive 2-0 Champions League final in 2019. The track records of both these clubs and these matchups would probably render this fixture the biggest of the week anyway, but oh, by the way, Tottenham and Liverpool are currently league co-leaders. So there's also that.
Both will be kicking themselves for settling for 1-1 draws last weekend against seemingly inferior opponents and missing a chance to grab the outright points lead, so both will be desperate for a win. It will be a fascinating tactical matchup. In terms of consistent form, you have to like Tottenham more; before the surprise draw on Sunday, they had won 5 of their last 6, their lone non-win coming in the form of a road draw at Chelsea. But, as inconsistent as the Reds have been this season, the champions' ceiling is still the higher of the two, as we've seen in performances against Chelsea, Arsenal, Leicester and Wolves. They've also consistently avoided two subpar performances in a row, and that would be a scary fact for Tottenham, even before you factor in the fact that this is a big match at Anfield in front of (some) rowdy Liverpudlians.
The Pick: Liverpool, 2-1
Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool
The tricky aspect of doubling up on predictions this week is that how a number of this weekend's matches play out could very well depend on how the matches tomorrow and Wednesday go. This match is a clear example of that; if Liverpool come into this match having dropped points in consecutive games, it's hard to foresee a scenario where they don't come in with guns blazing to get the W. But lest you feel too sorry for the Reds' difficult week-plus, Palace haven't exactly had an easy go of it coming into this one. They'll enter Saturday's match against the champions having just played current league leaders Tottenham and current fringe Top 4 side West Ham, the latter on the road, within the last 6 days. There's no question on paper that Liverpool should win this, regardless of what happens on Wednesday, but as we've only just seen, Palace certainly have the capability to steal points against favored teams. Besides, as you undoubtedly heard the NBC Sports commentators point out 73 times during Sunday's match, Liverpool's road form has been markedly worse thus far this season. I just really don't see Liverpool taking 6 points from these next few days, and weirdly enough, this is the match I feel more confident about them dropping points in.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Southampton vs. Manchester City
Regardless of what Southampton is or isn't able to do against Arsenal, they'll see this as the biggest signpost match of their overachieving season. If the Saints are going to prove they have staying power in and around the Top 4, getting a result against modern-day dynasty Manchester City would make a serious statement. The midweek disclaimer almost surely is irrelevant for City, who should be expected to stomp West Brom tomorrow. That fact might actually help Southampton's odds; just like last season, Manchester City has wildly inconsistent this year, looking like world-beaters one match than a mid-table club the next. If Southampton drops points at Arsenal, I might expect them to even win this one, but seeing as I expect them to take 3 points off the Gunners, I'll instead predict that the urgency isn't necessarily there, but the energy is enough for them to get a point and a moral victory.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Leicester City
Sheesh, what a week for these two teams. Leicester City-Everton would probably be the most anticipated match of the week were it not for this one, and this would probably the most anticipated match of the week were it not for Tottenham-Liverpool. This is another fascinating matchup, between arguably the two best counterattacking sides in the Premier League, albeit with wildly different managerial styles in Jose Mourinho and Brendan Rodgers. In terms of how it will play out, this is another instance in which I think what happens in the midweek will have a significant impact on what happens this weekend. The gap in talent and potential is small enough that if either team drops points in the next couple days-- which again, I've predicted Spurs doing --I expect the motivation to win them back would make them the favorite on Sunday. But in the absence of that knowledge, I have to pick it in a vacuum. And not only are Tottenham the league leaders, not only are they at home for this one, they also tend to have Leicester's number.
The Pick: Tottenham, 4-2
Manchester United vs. Leeds United
In a loaded week of matches, this is one that doesn't have significant title race implications. It's not one that will be largely affected by what happens in the midweek matches. It's just bound to be fun. Manchester United may not be having the season their fans would like to be having thus far, but win, lose, or draw, their matches are nothing if not entertaining. The same could be said for Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds side, even if the goals have stopped flowing as easily as they were in the earlygoing, Plus, Leeds fans everywhere have had this date circled since the Premier League fixture list was released in August. They hate Man U, and cannot wait to try and spoil any aspirations the Red Devils have. Can they pull that off? Indubitably. Neither team has been the picture of consistency, so just about any result is feasible. And Leeds has pulled off results against better teams, and United has dropped points to worse teams. Thanks in no small part to the road venue, I'm having trouble picturing Leeds winning this one, though. What I will at least allow that this has the makings of a competitive draw.
The Pick: Draw, 1-1
Comments