College Basketball Couch Power 10 (March 7th)
North Carolina provided the ultimate finale to a wild basketball season by playing the ultimate spoiler in Duke's celebration of their coach
Well, college basketball fans, we've finally made it. Another regular season is in the books, all eyes are turning to conference tournament week, and the boffins at ESPN are frantically hitting refresh on their bubble watches and Bracketologies. Yes, March Madness is nigh, and I couldn't be happier!
You may have observed I seem a little more chipper than I usually am. It's true, this is really the first week I've felt in the spirit of the season. You could say it's because of how close we are to the postseason. And that would be true! You could say it's because after my first really hard week at work in a while, I need a nice distraction. That would be true, too! You might guess it's because the most fun and chaotic regular season in some time had an appropriately wild conclusion with 16 total ranked teams losing last week, a whopping ten of them to unranked teams. And that was also a lot of fun! But, no the truth is, I'm mostly still beaming from one of those unranked-over-ranked games in particular. I'm referring of course, to my beloved Tar Heels finally realizing their potential in the 2nd half of the biggest game of the year. This entire college basketball season has been set up as a victory lap for Duke and Coach K, who is retiring after this year, to the extent that ESPN's coverage of the best rivalry in American sports made zero mention of the opponent and instead devoted their coverage to the pageantry celebrating the Hall of Fame coach, and his last game in Cameron Indoor Stadium, in front of rabid fans who were there to cheer him on to win more win over their hated rival. That's what they thought, at least, until the "Iron Five," Carolina's starting lineup who played every minute of the 2nd half, shot the lights out and dominated Duke off the floor, gloriously.
Regardless of what happens the rest of the way out, this season gets a passing grade in my book. Unless Duke proceeds to win the national championship, of course, but honestly, even then, it might still get a passing grade. This was all I wanted.
To the very end, it's been a wild and unpredictable season. Despite this, I’ve do my best to rank the top teams based on what they've done to date. One last time:
1. Baylor
The regular season ends with the reigning national champions atop our last Power 10. Rarely, if ever, have Baylor looked like the #1 team in the country this season, nor have there been many moments where the Bears look like a definite threat to repeat their title run. But it's not hard to argue that they've finished this crazy season with the most impressive body of work. Yes, they lost 5 times, but they also won 26 games with the #8 hardest schedule in the country. That was good enough to give them a share of yet another Big 12 title, and considering half of their wins are "quad 1 wins," puts them in very good shape for a 1-seed. It's particularly impressive that they won 7 of their last 8 games, including their last 6, even without star big man Jonathan Tchamwa Thatchoua...that suggests that once again, Baylor is a team nobody is going to want to play this postseason.
2. Auburn
After spending much of the season as the team du jour, Auburn has somewhat slipped off the radar heading into the postseason. It's understandable why; they stumbled down the stretch, losing 3 games out of 6 at one point, and not scoring any major wins in that time. But, the Tigers rallied to get two important, stabilizing wins to close out the season and clinch the SEC in the process. They finish the year with 11 quality wins, and the 2nd-best strength of record, according to ESPN. In other words, they're still primed for a 1-seed in the tournament.
3. Arizona
I harped on Arizona last week for their unimpressive loss to Colorado, but I have to give them credit for responding well. They immediately turned around and smacked a Top 15 USC team on the road, then finished out their season with two blowouts at home against Stanford and Cal. At 28-3, the Wildcats probably enter the postseason as a surefire 1-seed.
4. Gonzaga
The last sentence of what I said above about Arizona applies to Gonzaga too, but where they differ is we haven't had a chance to see Gonzaga respond to their loss quite yet. The Zags' defeat by St. Mary's was their season finale, and they got a whole week to stew in it while the earlier rounds of the WCC tournament played out. They finally get their chance to take the court again tonight, in the semifinals against San Francisco, with a 1-seed probably solidified, thanks to their #1 AP ranking, 28-3 record, and zero losses to non-tournament teams. But lose tonight to the Dons, and things might get a little interesting...
5. Kentucky
Kentucky, like their SEC foes Auburn, rebounded nicely from their upset loss during Chaos Weekend, with two wins in "should-win" games. Consistency will still be a worry for the Wildcats entering the postseason, but the 25-6 record and 10 wins over likely tournament teams speaks to how good they can be.
6. Kansas
Just like the Wildcats ahead of them, Kansas has spent all season having one of the highest ceilings of any team, but struggling to piece it together consistently. That consistency issue lasted to the very end of the season, as the Jahawks nearly threw away the Big 12 regular season title they appeared to have wrapped up. But, KU dug deep for two close, season-ending wins over tournament teams TCU and Texas (the former just two days after losing to the Horned Frogs), and secured a share of the Big 12 after all. With the #7 ranked schedule in America, a 1-seed is still very much in play for the Jayhawks, depending on their Big 12 tournament performance.
7. Providence
I wouldn't fault any of you for wondering why The Couch is consistently so much higher on Providence than the media at large. I've had the Friars ranked higher than the AP voters just about every single week, and Providence has only gone and lost their last two games against ranked opponents. The truth is, I'm not particularly high on this team, I just don't know who (apart from the 6 above) else deserves to be ranked ahead of them at this point. Yes, failing to beat Villanova in either matchup reflects poorly on their 'top seed' argument. No, they don't rank in the Top 50 in schedule strength. But, this is still just a 4-loss team, and the Big East champion at that, with zero "bad" losses and a non-conference win over Wisconsin that has aged like a fine wine. That has to count for something.
8. Murray State
While most everyone else was busy duking it out with their rivals and jostling for pole position in their respective conferences, Murray State went ahead and officially booked their spot in the tourney by winning the Ohio Valley championship. Their run wasn't without its scares, and their schedule strength isn't even in the top half of the country, but none of that changes the fact that this team has won 20 straight, and hasn't lost since playing #2 Auburn before Christmas. They'll probably be severely underrated by the selection committee, but that doesn't mean the Racers are a team anyone will want to see in their regional.
9. Wisconsin
Wisconsin was primed and ready to ascend not only the Couch Power 10, but the selection committee's seed list. Their thrilling, buzzer-beating win over Purdue last week secured a share of the Big Ten title, their sixth straight victory, and an 11th 'quality' win. Then...they proceeded to lose to 9-21 Nebraska at home in the season finale, and lose the top seed in the Big Ten tournament in the process. The Badgers can be somewhat forgiven for not fully recovering from the high of the Purdue W, and assuming they would be able to sleepwalk to a win against Nebraska, and they still have the #7 strength of record, according to ESPN. But boy, if they don't end up winning it all in Indianapolis this weekend-- and perhaps even if they do --they will be kicking themselves for that loss, likely blowing a very real chance at a 1-seed.
10. Tennessee
You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that finished the season in better form than Tennessee. The Vols won 9 of their last 10 games, including the last 4, their sole loss coming in a tough road loss to a ranked Arkansas team. That stretch also included wins over Top 5 teams Auburn and Kentucky, as well as a revenge victory over #14 Arkansas this past weekend. That closing form, as well as the 6th-ranked schedule strength in the country, is enough to earn Tennessee the honor of being the first (and only!) 7-loss team to place in the Couch Power 10.
Just missed: (The real ACC Player of the Year) Armando Bacot, Brady Manek, R.J. Davis, Caleb Love, Leaky Black
BONUS! Couch Seed Projections
SOUTH (San Antonio): Baylor
WEST (San Francisco): Arizona
MIDWEST (Chicago): Gonzaga
EAST (Philadelphia): Auburn
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