College Basketball Couch Power 10 (March 5th)
Top-ranked Houston came within seconds of their first loss in over a month, but star player Jamal Shead's buzzer-beater helped the Cougars stay atop the Big XII and the nation
Welcome back, college basketball fans! We did it. We made it. We're here. This is MARCH!!!
Yes, it's true, we've reached College Basketball's best month, its peak, its zenith, the month where memories are made, dreams are crushed, and Cinderella puts on her dancing shoes. A select few conferences have already begun their conference tournaments, but for most teams, it's the last week of the regular season. And whether it's that fact or the simple act of everyone's calendars turning to March, something happened in the last week to make everyone suddenly sit up straight, fix their faces and get serious. I'm speaking of the relative LACK of chaos we had in last week's slate of games. There were plenty 'ranked-on-ranked,' decently high-stakes matchups, mind you, so by no means were we wanting for high quality basketball. In fact, we saw some good games between good teams go down in just about every conference last week, and many a near-upset transpire, most notably on Saturday, when Oklahoma took visiting top-ranked Houston to the final second in Norman, only to lose on a Jamal Shead jumper at the buzzer. But overall, of the 7 ranked teams that lost last week (already a low number compared to most), only 2 of them were to unranked opponents, a paltry 550% decline from last week. What's more, a grand total of two Top 10 teams were felled last week, and each one (Kansas and Marquette) by ranked teams. So while there's certainly some movement in the Couch Power 10, we may finally be getting a little bit of clarity as we inch ever-closer to the postseason.
This last week notwithstanding, true to form for the last few years in college basketball, it's been a wild and unpredictable season. Despite this, I’ll try my hand at ranking the top teams based on what they’ve done to date:
1. Purdue
I find it very strange that Purdue dropped to #3 in the AP Poll simply for committing the heinous act of *checks notes* only beating a tough Michigan State team by 6, while Houston's #1 status was undamaged despite needing a buzzer beater to beat their unranked-but-solid opponent. I won't fault anyone for having doubts about the Boilermakers in the postseason given the way the last 3 tournaments have gone, but there can't be any denying they have the best body of work in the nation right now; a 26-3 record against the 6th-hardest schedule, with 13 quality wins, is unparalleled. Besides, it's somewhat of a moot point- a road trip to Top 15 opponent Illinois awaits tonight, and a Big Ten title and 1-seed security awaits with a win. Further speculation about their quality will abound with a loss.
2. Houston
Shead's clutch bucket did more than just win a game for his team. It kept the Cougars in a standalone 1st place in the Big XII, ranked 1st in the country, and likely clinched himself a spot in the 1st Team All-America and his side a 1-seed in the tournament. A tricky road game at UCF and then a massive clash vs. Kansas in the season finale is far from the easiest closing sequence, and if the Cougs lose a couple down the stretch and fail to win the conference tournament, they could be left sweating a little bit on Selection Sunday. But even putting aside the unlikelihood of Houston doubling up their season total in losses, between a Top 25 schedule strength and 26-3 record, I think they have already put too much distance between themselves and the next tier of teams to worry about losing a 1-seed.
3. Connecticut
The schedule has slowed down considerably for the reigning champs, having played only two games since their upset loss at Creighton two weeks ago. Those two games, though, resulted in wins over two likely tournament teams by an average of 27 points, so I think it's safe to say the Huskies have bounced back. Their body of work pales slightly in comparison to their fellow 1-seed locks thanks in no small part to the rough year the Big East is having, but you will find many people that will believe they're once again the best team heading into the Big Dance, and I might just be among them.
4. Arizona
This next tier, of 'likely 2-seed teams that could crash the 1-seed party,' is the hardest to rank for me. Relatedly, I'm going to do something a little unconventional for me and jump a team up 5 spots despite not beating any ranked teams and having an inferior schedule strength to the next few teams below them. But I dunno, something about the way Zona pasted rivals Arizona State and tournament team Oregon last week has me feeling like they're gunning for that 1-seed out west, and might just be the strongest contender for it. I've been fooled by Pac-12 teams, even Arizona teams, many times in recent years, and I may be getting fooled again, but I just think these Wildcats have as high a ceiling as anyone in the country, and are starting to play like it, right in time for it to matter most.
5. North Carolina
It feels strange to say this about one of the biggest brands in college basketball, but I feel like people are sleeping on North Carolina somewhat. I say that as a Tar Heel fan, yes, but I also say it as a realistic Tar Heel fan who has been generally unhappy with his team's play lately and fully expects them to lose to Duke this weekend. But Carolina's body of work is still among the best in the country; although they had their mini-slump in late January/early February, and Duke on Saturday will represent their first ranked opponent since... Duke, a month ago, they've quietly won 4 in a row now to maintain the 5th-ranked strength of record in the country. They also, as it stands, sit alone atop the ACC standings with a chance to clinch a share of the title tonight, and obviously, an outright title with a win at their rivals this weekend. Regardless of how you think of the ACC, and lord knows MUCH has been made of its quality these last couple months, it's a deep, competitive league, and that is no small feat.
6. Tennessee
I feel bad putting Tennessee here, I really do. An increasing number-- I'd venture to say a majority at this point, in fact --of bracketologists are starting to pencil the Volunteers in as the fourth 1-seed, and you can't say it isn't deserved. Rick Barnes' crew just had a massive week, adding their 5th and 6th straight wins by knocking off Top 15 rivals Auburn and Alabama, the latter on the road. They have played a Top 10 schedule and currently sit alone atop an unexpectedly good and deep SEC. But they also don't have a single win as good as Arizona's best wins, and they lost head-to-head (and comprehensively so) to the team I've put directly above them who has an identical record. So rules are rules! Do I think Tennessee currently has a 1-seed resumé? I do. Do I think they would beat Carolina if the two were to play again tonight? I do. But those are (at least partially) opinion-based sentiments, and I have to inject some cold hard facts to these rankings sometimes and go by the results I've seen on the court.
7. Iowa State
If North Carolina or Arizona feel somewhat slept-on, Iowa State have every right to feel that tenfold. The Big XII discussion seems to have been dominated by #1 Houston and the jostling between recent national champions Baylor and Kansas. But T.J. Otzelberger and co. have quietly put together a terrific season; with cozy wins over Oklahoma and UCF last week, the Cyclones have clinched at worst a 2nd place finish in their loaded conference, and still have a shot to win it. They have lost only thrice in the calendar year, and each were road losses to ranked teams, by a grand total of 17 points. Throw in a Top 5 strength of record, and you;re likely looking at a 2-seed at worst in the NCAA tournament for Iowa State, which I'm not sure anybody would have expected of the preseason-unranked side in November.
8. Marquette
Marquette's double-digit loss at Creighton over the weekend ended a streak of 4 blowout victories and officially handed the Big East title to Connecticut. But given that the newly-crowned conference champions also lost big at Creighton recently, and Marquette were without star player Tyler Kolek, it's hard to see too much fault with that. The bigger concern for the Eagles is how long Kolek will be out, and whether they're able to right the ship in his absence. If not long, or if so, respectively, this is still a team with an impressive body of work and loads of potential.
9. South Carolina
From the very first time I saw South Carolina creeping up the rankings and officially onto my radar, I assumed it was a fluke and it was only a matter of time before their bubble burst. Well, the time for that has come and gone, and the bubble is still very much intact; the Gamecocks are for real, y'all. Lamont Paris, still my pick for national Coach of the Year, has his men focused and mentally tough, as evidenced by their last three games. After a brutal week in early February that saw SC annihilated by Auburn then lose at home to a bad LSU team, they have bounced back with two straight gritty road wins against decent teams, and then this weekend, a come-from-behind win vs. a good Florida team. Against all odds, they have a chance to put one hand on the SEC trophy tomorrow if they can knock off Tennessee at home.
10. Baylor
In the approx. 10-17 range of the polls, there's a whole slew of teams that have a somewhat high number of losses, but an even higher number of quality wins amongst their highly-rated schedules. It's anyone's guess who is most deserving of the crown in that tier, but my pick is Baylor. The 2021 national champs avenged their earlier loss to Kansas over the weekend and in doing so, solidified the 3rd seed in the sure-to-be loaded Big XII tournament. 8 losses is 8 losses, yes, but 10 quality wins amongst the 8th-strongest schedule in the country is something else altogether.
Just missed: Dook, Kansas, Illinois, Alabama, Auburn, Elliott "The Orchestrator" Cadeau
BONUS!
Couch Regional Seeding
MIDWEST (Detroit):
1. Purdue
2. Marquette
3. Kansas
4. Illinois
SOUTH (Dallas):
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Baylor
4. Creighton
EAST (Boston):
1. Connecticut
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. Alabama
WEST (Los Angeles):
1. Arizona
2. Iowa State
3. Duke
4. Auburn
Comments